IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: April 2014

International Republican Institute

Public Opinion SurveyResidents of Ukraine

April 3-12, 2014

Detailed Methodology

2

• The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup

Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group

Ukraine.

• Data was collected throughout Ukraine April 3–12, 2014, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ home.

Due to Russia’s occupation of the peninsula, resident’s of Crimea were unable to be included in this poll.

• The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is

representative for the general population by age, gender, education, region and size of the settlement.

• Multistage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday respondent’s selection

procedures.

• Stage one: 25 official administrative regions of Ukraine were defined (24 regions of Ukraine and Kyiv).

All regions of Ukraine were surveyed except Crimea.

• Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according

to the size:

• City more than one million residents

• City 500,000-999,000 residents



• City to 50,000 residents

• Village

• Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional

to the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region.

• Stage three: primary sampling units were described.

•

• The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent.

• Response rate was 65 percent.

• Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

• The survey was funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development.

http://www.gallup.com/region/en-us/europe.aspx

http://www.ratinggroup.com.ua/en/

http://www.usaid.gov/where-we-work/europe-and-eurasia/ukraine


Opposition to Russian Military Intervention Strong in all Regions

Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army into Ukraine under the pretext of protecting Russian-

speaking citizens?

4

7%

4%

6%

5%

9%

12%

72%

73%

6%

6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

March 2014

April 2014

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

5

2%

5%

8%

1%

1%

8%

11%

5%

10%

14%

17%

92%

84%

61%

52%

2%

2%

12%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East



speaking citizens?


speaking citizens?

6

By age and gender

4%

3%

4%

4%

4%

5%

6%

6%

4%

14%

11%

12%

11%

13%

71%

74%

73%

73%

73%

4%

7%

7%

6%

7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

18-29

30-49

50+

Male

Female


6%


speaking citizens?

7

2%

9%

3%

10%

10%

16%

82%

52%

3%

13%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Ukrainian-speaking citizens

Russian-speakingcitizens


Is it necessary for the Russian military to come into eastern and/or southern Ukraine to protect the Russian speakers and ethnic Russians?

8

3%4%

12%

76%

5%

Definitely yes

Rather yes

Rather no

Definitely no

Don't know/Refusedto answer


9

1%

2%

7%

1%

3%

10%

7%

7%

13%

21%

91%

88%

73%

52%

1%

3%

9%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East



10

1%

8%

2%

8%

9%

19%

85%

54%

3%

11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Ukrainian-speaking citizens

Russian-speaking citizens


How do you evaluate Russia’s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at…

11

54%

17%

13%

5%

4%

1%

6%

55%

15%

9%

7%

4%

3%

7%

Invasion and occupation of independent Ukraine

Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders

Protection of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine

Response to the new Crimea leaders asking forhelp

Protection of Russian military base in Sevastopol

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

March 2014

April 2014


Ukraine Should Remain a United Country

In you opinion, should Ukraine… ?

13

64%

66%

10%

7%

14%

17%

1%

2%

1%

1%

10%

7%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

March 2014

April 2014

Remain a unitary country Remain a unitary country, but without Crimea

Become a federal country Be divided into several countries

Other Difficult to answer/No answer

In you opinion, should Ukraine… ?

14

89%

77%

58%

40%

4%

11%

3%

9%

4%

5%

26%

35%

2%

3%

2%

7%

9%

8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Remain a unitary country Remain a unitary country, but without Crimea

Become a federal country Be divided into several countries

Other Difficult to answer/No answer

2%

5%

Do you support the idea of replacing oblast and rayon state administration with executive committees

which would be appointed by the oblast and rayon councils?

15

23%

25%

9%

14%

29%

Fully support

Rather support

Rather don't support

Totally don't support


In your opinion, what should be the status of Crimea?

16

50%

42%

13%

20%

13%

13%

8%

8%

5%

4%

1%

1%

2%

9%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

March 2014

April 2014

Autonomous republic within Ukraine Crimean-Tatar autonomous republic within Ukraine

Should become part of Russia Become an oblast of Ukraine

Should become an independent state Should become part of Turkey

Other Don't know/Refused to answer


Voter Enthusiasm for Election High

Are you going to vote in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

18

48%

55%

31%

29%

4%

2%

12%

10%

5%

4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

March 2014

April 2014


Are you going to vote in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

19

74%

58%

29%

47%

17%

34%

33%

32%

1%

3%

4%

5%

5%

25%

13%

4%

2%

10%

4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East


Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

20

29%

13%

6%

5%

4%

4%

3%

3%

3%

1%

1%

3%

3%

11%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Petro Poroshenko

Yuliya Tymoshenko

Serhiy Tihipko

Mykhaylo Dobkin

Oleh Lyashko

Petro Symonenko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Olha Bohomolets

Oleh Tyahnybok

Dmytro Yarosh

Nataliya Korolevska

Other

Against all

I would not vote

Difficult to answer/Don’t know

All respondents; First choice


21

34%

15%

7%

6%

5%

5%

3%

3%

3%

2%

1%

3%

3%

11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Petro Poroshenko

Yuliya Tymoshenko

Serhiy Tihipko

Mykhaylo Dobkin

Oleh Lyashko

Petro Symonenko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Olha Bohomolets

Oleh Tyahnybok

Dmytro Yarosh

Nataliya Korolevska

Other

Against all


Likely voters, n=1,005; First choice


22

15%

7%

7%

5%

4%

4%

3%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

3%

8%

13%

26%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Petro Poroshenko

Yuliya Tymoshenko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Serhiy Tihipko

Oleh Lyashko

Olha Bohomolets

Mykhaylo Dobkin

Oleh Tyahnybok

Petro Symonenko

Dmytro Yarosh

Nataliya Korolevska

Yuriy Boyko

Other

Against all

I would not vote


All respondents, Second choice

If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, for whom would you vote?

23

41% 15% 21% 12% 11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Petro Poroshenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know


24

51% 12% 14% 12% 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Petro Poroshenko Mykhaylo Dobkin Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know


25

50% 13% 14% 12% 11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Petro Poroshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know


26

31% 17% 26% 13% 13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yuliya Tymoshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know


27

33% 12% 28% 14% 13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yuliya Tymoshenko Mykhaylo Dobkin Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

In your opinion, will Russia attempt to disrupt or discredit the upcoming presidential election in Ukraine?

28

37%

27%

13%

12%

11%

Definitely yes

Rather yes

Rather no

Definitely no


In your opinion, will the next presidential election be…?

29

2%

4%

7%

11%

17%

20%

34%

38%

39%

35%

27%

22%

26%

22%

15%

16%

16%

19%

17%

13%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fairAbsolutely not free and fair Don't know/Refused to answer


Confidence in the Government Holds

Do you approve or disapprove of the job acting President Oleksandr Turchynov is doing?

31

9%

11%

33%

35%

20%

19%

27%

24%

11%

11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

March 2014

April 2014

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk is doing?

32

12%

16%

34%

36%

17%

16%

27%

24%

9%

8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

March 2014

April 2014


Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Parliament of Ukraine is doing?

33

2%

6%

6%

10%

11%

33%

33%

35%

30%

24%

24%

45%

50%

26%

26%

9%

7%

11%

11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014


How would you evaluate the efforts of the new authorities in Ukraine to secure the territorial integrity of Ukraine?

34

14%

29%

27%

23%

7% They do everythingthat can be done

They do part of whatcan be done

They do very little ofwhat can be done

Total inactivity

Difficult to answer/Noanswer

What is your opinion about each of these members of the Ukrainian government?

35

53%

47%

38%

30%

26%

26%

23%

19%

19%

18%

16%

13%

40%

43%

41%

51%

23%

30%

23%

20%

21%

22%

18%

18%

1%

1%

8%

5%

36%

27%

37%

44%

45%

44%

51%

56%

6%

9%

13%

14%

15%

17%

17%

17%

15%

16%

14%

13%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk

Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov

Secretary of the National Security and Defense CouncilAndriy Parubiy

Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov

Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs Andriy Deshchytsia

First Deputy Prime Minister Vitaliy Yarema

Acting Minister of Defense Mykhaylo Koval

Minister of Healthcare Oleh Musiy

Deputy Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroisman

Minister of Economic Development Pavlo Sheremeta

Minister of Education and Science Serhiy Kvit

Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Sych

Favorable Unfavorable Have not heard the name Don't know/No answer

What is your opinion about each of these Ukrainian politicians and civic activists?

36

63%

60%

50%

50%

40%

34%

32%

30%

25%

19%

15%

12%

9%

7%

4%

30%

21%

32%

45%

51%

59%

26%

65%

59%

73%

75%

82%

16%

14%

92%

1%

6%

6%

1%

30%

3%

3%

66%

71%

6%

13%

12%

5%

8%

7%

12%

5%

13%

8%

7%

6%

9%

8%

4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Petro Poroshenko

Olha Bohomolets

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Vitaliy Klychko

Yuriy Lutsenko

Yuliya Tymoshenko

Lesya Orobets

Oleh Tyahnybok

Dmytro Yarosh

Serhiy Tihipko

Mykhaylo Dobkin

Petro Symonenko

Vasyl Hatsko

Hanna Hopko

Viktor Yanukovych

Favorable Unfavorable Have not heard the name Don't know/No answer


Majority Want Closer Ties to Europe

If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, should it be with…?

38

42%

36%

37%

32%

40%

42%

41%

52%

53%

40%

43%

41%

42%

37%

37%

36%

27%

24%

3%

4%

5%

6%

5%

5%

9%

6%

10%

15%

17%

17%

20%

18%

16%

14%

14%

13%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

November2011

March 2012

May 2012

August 2012

May 2013

September2013

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other Don't know/No answer


39

82%

69%

28%

27%

2%

10%

32%

53%

3%

9%

19%

10%

12%

12%

21%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other Don't know/No answer

If a referendum was held today on Ukraine joining the European Union, how would you vote?

40

53%

54%

28%

31%

8%

7%

11%

8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

March 2014

April 2014

Would vote for Ukraine to join the European Union Would vote against Ukraine joining the European Union

Would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer

41

83%

70%

28%

27%

10%

17%

37%

59%

2%

4%

20%

8%

5%

9%

15%

6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Would vote for Ukraine to join the European Union Would vote against Ukraine joining the European Union



If a referendum was held today on Ukraine joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, how would you vote?

42

28%

24%

51%

57%

15%

9%

6%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

March2014

April 2014

Would vote for Ukraine to join the Customs Union Would vote against Ukraine joining the Customs Union


If a referendum was held today on Ukraine joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, how would you vote?

43

4%

9%

31%

53%

82%

75%

35%

29%

7%

7%

16%

8%

7%

9%

18%

9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Would vote for Ukraine to join the Customs Union Would vote against Ukraine joining the Customs Union



Parliamentary Elections

Do you think that early parliamentary elections should be carried out in the near future?

45

2%

27%

37%

10%

11%

35%

31%

35%

30%

12%

12%

45%

50%

12%

9%

9%

7%

14%

11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014


If early parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote?

46

33%

34%

41%

42%

49%

36%

34%

35%

33%

32%

8%

7%

8%

5%

4%

19%

20%

10%

12%

11%

4%

5%

6%

8%

4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

May 2013

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014


If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for?

47

16%

15%

9%

8%

5%

5%

4%

1%

1%

4%

13%

20%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Solidarnist (P. Poroshenko)

Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko)

Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform(UDAR) (V. Klychko)

Party of Regions

Svoboda (O. Tyahnybok)

Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O. Lyashko)

Communist Party (P. Symonenko)

Pravyi Sector (D. Yarosh)

Ukraine-Forward! (N. Korolevska)

Other

I would not vote

Don't know/Refused to answer

In your opinion, will the next parliamentary elections be…?

48

4%

7%

10%

20%

33%

37%

36%

26%

22%

22%

16%

16%

18%

18%

15%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fairAbsolutely not free and fair Don't know/Refused to answer


Mood of Ukraine

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction?

50

13% 13% 14%

24%

15% 15%

18%

30% 34%

71% 73%

66%

58%

69% 67%64%

52% 48%

16%14%

20%

18%

16%18%

17% 18%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

November2011

March2012

May2012

August2012

May2013

September 2013

February2014

March2014

April2014

Right direction Wrong direction Don't know, no answer

Over the last 12 months, the financial situation of your household has…

51

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

6%

6%

9%

14%

8%

9%

8%

3%

4%

37%

39%

45%

37%

46%

41%

44%

46%

37%

36%

34%

30%

27%

30%

30%

31%

29%

34%

18%

18%

13%

15%

14%

17%

14%

18%

22%

2%

2%

3%

5%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

November 2011

March 2012

May 2012

August 2012

May 2013

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same

Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/No answer

In the next 12 months, do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine will…

52

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

7%

8%

13%

17%

8%

12%

9%

11%

10%

30%

32%

35%

31%

38%

27%

20%

16%

13%

32%

32%

26%

24%

29%

29%

31%

26%

26%

17%

15%

11%

11%

12%

17%

28%

35%

43%

13%

12%

14%

16%

12%

13%

12%

11%

7%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

November 2011

March 2012

May 2012

August 2012

May 2013

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the sameWorsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/No answer


Views on Foreign Countries

How do you perceive the level of support for Ukraine from the following countries during the Crimea crisis?

54

51%

49%

45%

44%

42%

37%

29%

30%

34%

35%

33%

37%

12%

13%

14%

13%

14%

13%

8%

8%

8%

8%

11%

13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Poland

EuropeanUnion

United States

Germany

Lithuania

Canada

Supportive Neutral Not supportive Don't know/Refused to answer


Demographics

Demographics

45%

55%

22%

35%

44%

69%

30%

1%

32%

36%

32%

24%

1%

20%

1%

31%

4%

9%

7%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Male

Female

18-29 years

30-49 years

50 years and older

Ukrainian

Russian

Other

Secondary or lower

Vocational

Higher

Blue collar

Farmer

White collar

Higher or medium executive

Retired (not working)

Student

Housewife

Unemployed

Other

GEN

DER

AG

E

LAN

GU

AG

ESPO

KEN

AT

HO

ME

ED

UCATIO

NO

CCU

PATIO

N

56

Demographics

57

78%

7%

3%

1%

11%

41%

57%

1%

1%

13%

8%

18%

8%

22%

31%

22%

30%

19%

29%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Orthodox

Greek Catholic

Other

Atheist

Believe in God but don't belong to any religion

Bad

Average

Good

No answer

City with more than 1 million

City with 500-999 thousand



Up to 50 thousand

Rural area

West

Center

South

East

RELIG

ION

SIT

UATIO

N O

FFAM

ILY

SETTLEM

EN

T T

YPE

REG

ION

S

Demographics

58

Due to Russia’s occupation of the peninsula,

resident’s of Crimea were unable to be included in this poll.

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IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: April 2014

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