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International Republican Institute Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine March 14 – 26, 2014
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IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Aug 23, 2014

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March 14–26,2014, 1,200 permanent residents.
conducted by Rating Group Ukraine, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization
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Page 1: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

International Republican Institute

Public Opinion SurveyResidents of Ukraine

March 14 – 26, 2014

Page 2: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Detailed Methodology

2

• The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization

on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine.

• Data was collected throughout Ukraine (including Crimea) March 14–26, 2014, through face-to-face interviews at

respondents’ home.

• The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine older than the age of 18 and eligible to vote. It is

representative of the general population by age, gender, education, region and size of the settlement.

• Multistage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday respondent’s selection

procedures.

• Stage one: 27 official administrative regions of Ukraine were defined (25 regions of Ukraine, Kyiv and Sevastopol).

All regions of Ukraine were surveyed.

• Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to the

size:

• City more than one million residents

• City 500,000-999,000 residents

• City 100,000-499,000 residents

• City 50,000-99,000 residents

• City to 50,000 residents

• Village

• Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the

share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region.

• Stage three: primary sampling units were described.

• The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent.

• Response rate was 63 percent.

• Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

• The survey was funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development.

Page 3: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

International Republican Institute

Russian-Speaking CitizensNot Under Pressure or Threat

Page 4: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Do you feel that Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine are under pressure or threat because of their language?

4

5%

7%

14%

71%

3%

Definitely yes

Rather yes

Rather no

Definitely no

Don't know/Refused toanswer

Page 5: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Do you feel that Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine are under pressure or threat because of their language?

5

3%

12%

5%

17%

13%

17%

76%

49%

3%

5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

EthnicUkrainian

EthnicRussian

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

By ethnicity

Page 6: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Do you feel that Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine are under pressure or threat because of their language?

6

1%

3%

13%

5%

3%

2%

11%

12%

7%

11%

23%

16%

88%

83%

51%

58%

1%

1%

2%

8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 7: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine?

7

7%

6%

9%

72%

6%

Definitely yes

Rather yes

Rather no

Definitely no

Don't know/Refused toanswer

Page 8: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine?

8

1%

1%

16%

12%

1%

11%

12%

5%

5%

16%

12%

93%

91%

51%

49%

1%

1%

6%

15%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 9: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine?

9

3%

23%

4%

20%

9%

11%

80%

32%

4%

14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

EthnicUkrainian

EthnicRussian

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

By ethnicity

Page 10: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

International Republican Institute

Majority Want Closer Ties to Europe

Page 11: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, should it be with…?

11

42%

36%

37%

32%

40%

42%

41%

52%

40%

43%

41%

42%

37%

37%

36%

27%

3%

4%

5%

6%

5%

5%

9%

6%

15%

17%

17%

20%

18%

16%

14%

14%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

November2011

March 2012

May 2012

August 2012

May 2013

September2013

February 2014

March 2014

European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan

Other Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 12: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, should it be with…?

12

90%

70%

29%

20%

3%

9%

37%

59%

2%

11%

10%

3%

5%

10%

24%

18%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

West

Center

South

East

European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and KazakhstanOther Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 13: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining the European Union, how would you vote?

13

53%

28%

8%

11%

Would vote for Ukraineto join the EU

Would vote againstUkraine joining the EU

Would not vote

Don't know/Refused toanswer

Page 14: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining the European Union, how would you vote?

14

90%

71%

29%

22%

4%

16%

37%

55%

2%

2%

23%

7%

4%

11%

11%

16%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Would vote for Ukraine to join the EU Would vote against Ukraine joining the EUWould not vote Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 15: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, how would you vote?

15

28%

51%

15%

6%

Would vote for Ukraineto join the CustomsUnionWould vote againstUkraine joining theCustoms UnionWould not vote

Don't know/Refused toanswer

Page 16: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, how would

you vote?

16

6%

10%

31%

62%

77%

74%

32%

19%

9%

5%

35%

17%

8%

11%

2%

2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Would vote for Ukraine to join the Customs Union Would vote against Ukraine joining the Customs Union

Would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 17: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Do you think that the authorities of Ukraine should sign the Association Agreement with the European Union as soon as

possible?

17

25%

35%

20%

18%

16%

12%

25%

21%

14%

14%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

February 2014

March 2014

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 18: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Do you think that the authorities of Ukraine should sign the Association Agreement with the European Union as soon as

possible?

18

72%

42%

12%

13%

18%

30%

15%

9%

3%

9%

15%

19%

2%

6%

35%

42%

5%

13%

23%

17%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 19: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote?

19

34%

44%

9%

13%

Would vote for Ukraineto join NATO

Would vote againstUkraine joining NATO

Would not vote

Don't know/Refused toanswer

Page 20: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote?

20

64%

47%

11%

14%

17%

33%

52%

67%

5%

4%

26%

8%

14%

16%

11%

11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would vote against Ukraine joining NATOWould not vote Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 21: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

International Republican Institute

Majority Consider Russia’sActions an Invasion

Page 22: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, a referendum in Crimea on joining Russia is…?

22

23%

68%

1%

8%

A legitimate right of theresidents of Crimea toexpress their opinion aboutthe future of Crimea

An attempt to breakUkraine into several partsand threat to itsindependence

Other

Don't know/Refused toanswer

Page 23: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, a referendum in Crimea on joining Russia is…?

23

2%

7%

41%

45%

94%

87%

48%

40%

2%2%

5%

10%

13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

A legitimate right of the residents of Crimea to express their opinion about the future of CrimeaAn attempt to break Ukraine into several parts and threat to its independenceOtherDon't know/Refused to answer

1%

2%

Page 24: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, what should the status of Crimea should be?

24

50%

13%

13%

8%

5%

1%1%

9%

Autonomous republic withinUkraine

Crimean-Tatar autonomousrepublic within Ukraine

Should become part ofRussia

Become an oblast of Ukraine

Should become anindependent state

Should become part ofTurkey

Other

Don't know/Refused toanswer

Page 25: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, what the status of Crimea should be?

25

61%

66%

42%

31%

14%

11%

11%

16%

3%

31%

20%

16%

8%

4%

5%

2%

3%

4%

11%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

6%

6%

6%

15%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Autonomous republic within Ukraine Crimean-Tatar autonomous republic within Ukraine

Should become part of Russia Become an oblast of Ukraine

Should become an independent state Should become part of Turkey

Other Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 26: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

How do you evaluate Russia’s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at...?

26

54%

17%

13%

5%

4%

1%

6%

Invasion and occupation of independent Ukraine

Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders

Protection of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine

Response to the new Crimea leaders asking for help

Protection of Russian military base in Sevastopol

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Page 27: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

How do you evaluate Russia’s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at...?

27

74%

20%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Invasion and occupation of independentUkraine

Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders

Protection of Russian-speaking citizens ofUkraine

Response to the new Crimea leadersasking for help

Protection of Russian military base inSevastopol

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

Western Ukraine

Page 28: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

How do you evaluate Russia’s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at...?

28

75%

16%

3%

2%

1%

0%

3%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Invasion and occupation of independentUkraine

Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders

Response to the new Crimea leadersasking for help

Protection of Russian-speaking citizens ofUkraine

Protection of Russian military base inSevastopol

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

Central Ukraine

Page 29: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

How do you evaluate Russia’s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at...?

29

37%

31%

15%

7%

2%

2%

6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Invasion and occupation of independentUkraine

Protection of Russian-speaking citizens ofUkraine

Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders

Response to the new Crimea leadersasking for help

Protection of Russian military base inSevastopol

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

Southern Ukraine

Page 30: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

How do you evaluate Russia’s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at...?

30

30%

22%

17%

10%

8%

1%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Invasion and occupation of independentUkraine

Protection of Russian-speaking citizens ofUkraine

Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders

Response to the new Crimea leadersasking for help

Protection of Russian military base inSevastopol

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

Eastern Ukraine

Page 31: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agreement…?

31

46%

18%

11%

8%

2%

14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Be terminated immediately and Russianmilitary should leave Crimea

Should be re-negotiated and Ukraine shouldhave more say in Russia's military actions

and movements in Crimea

Nothing has to be changed

Ukrainian troops should leave Crimea, onlyRussian troops should remain

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 32: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agreement…?

32

69%

13%

3%

3%

1%

11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Be terminated immediately and Russianmilitary should leave Crimea

Should be re-negotiated and Ukraine shouldhave more say in Russia's military actions

and movements in Crimea

Nothing has to be changed

Ukrainian troops should leave Crimea, onlyRussian troops should remain

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

Western Ukraine

Page 33: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agreement…?

33

63%

17%

4%

3%

1%

12%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Be terminated immediately and Russianmilitary should leave Crimea

Should be re-negotiated and Ukraine shouldhave more say in Russia's military actions

and movements in Crimea

Nothing has to be changed

Ukrainian troops should leave Crimea, onlyRussian troops should remain

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

Central Ukraine

Page 34: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agreement…?

34

31%

23%

20%

12%

1%

13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Be terminated immediately and Russianmilitary should leave Crimea

Nothing has to be changed

Should be re-negotiated and Ukraine shouldhave more say in Russia's military actions

and movements in Crimea

Ukrainian troops should leave Crimea, onlyRussian troops should remain

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

Southern Ukraine

Page 35: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agreement…?

35

23%

22%

17%

16%

2%

20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Should be re-negotiated and Ukraine shouldhave more say in Russia's military actions

and movements in Crimea

Be terminated immediately and Russianmilitary should leave Crimea

Nothing has to be changed

Ukrainian troops should leave Crimea, onlyRussian troops should remain

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

Eastern Ukraine

Page 36: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, should Ukraine…?

36

64%

10%

14%

1%1%

10%

Remain a unitary country

Remain a unitary country,but without Crimea

Become a federal country

Be divided into severalcountries

Other

Difficult to answer/Noanswer

Page 37: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, should Ukraine…?

37

86%

78%

44%

45%

3%

7%

25%

8%

3%

6%

22%

26%

2%

4%

1%

1%

1%

1%

8%

8%

6%

16%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Remain a unitary country Remain a unitary country, but without Crimea

Become a federal country Be divided into several countries

Other Difficult to answer/No answer

Page 38: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

International Republican Institute

Elections

Page 39: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Do you think that early presidential and parliamentary elections should be carried out in the near future?

39

<1%

2%

27%

10%

11%

35%

35%

30%

12%

45%

50%

12%

9%

7%

14%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 40: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Do you think that early presidential and parliamentaryelections should be carried out in the near future?

40

40%

36%

14%

17%

46%

39%

26%

30%

6%

11%

17%

11%

4%

6%

18%

20%

4%

8%

25%

22%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 41: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

International Republican Institute

Presidential Election

Page 42: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Are you going to vote in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

42

48%

51%

31%

32%

4%

4%

12%

8%

5%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Ukraine

Ukraine withoutCrimea

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 43: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Are you going to vote in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

43

78%

46%

26%

43%

19%

46%

22%

29%

1%

3%

9%

5%

2%

2%

38%

12%

3%

5%

11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 44: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

44

21%

11%

10%

6%

3%

3%

3%

3%

6%

8%

14%

13%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Petro Poroshenko

Yuliya Tymoshenko

Vitaliy Klychko

Serhiy Tihipko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Petro Symonenko

Oleh Tyahnybok

Mykhaylo Dobkin

Other

Against all

I would not vote

Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Page 45: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

45

27%

14%

13%

7%

4%

4%

3%

3%

7%

7%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Petro Poroshenko

Yuliya Tymoshenko

Vitaliy Klychko

Serhiy Tihipko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Petro Symonenko

Oleh Tyahnybok

Mykhaylo Dobkin

Other

Against all

Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Respondents who are going to vote in presidential election, N=946

Page 46: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

46

34%

23%

17%

6%

4%

1%

1%

1%

3%

2%

8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Petro Poroshenko

Vitaliy Klychko

Yuliya Tymoshenko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Oleh Tyahnybok

Serhiy Tihipko

Petro Symonenko

Dmytro Yarosh

Other

I would not vote

Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Western Ukraine

Page 47: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

47

34%

16%

12%

4%

4%

4%

2%

1%

6%

6%

2%

9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Petro Poroshenko

Yuliya Tymoshenko

Vitaliy Klychko

Serhiy Tihipko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Oleh Tyahnybok

Petro Symonenko

Dmytro Yarosh

Other

Against all

I would not vote

Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Central Ukraine

Page 48: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

48

9%

8%

5%

3%

2%

1%

1%

5%

10%

44%

13%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Yuliya Tymoshenko

Petro Poroshenko

Serhiy Tihipko

Vitaliy Klychko

Petro Symonenko

Mykhaylo Dobkin

Nataliya Korolevska

Other

Against all

I would not vote

Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Southern Ukraine

Page 49: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

49

11%

8%

7%

7%

4%

3%

2%

1%

1%

7%

13%

14%

22%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Serhiy Tihipko

Mykhaylo Dobkin

Petro Poroshenko

Petro Symonenko

Yuliya Tymoshenko

Vitaliy Klychko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Oleh Tyahnybok

Nataliya Korolevska

Other

Against all

I would not vote

Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Eastern Ukraine

Page 50: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

50

22%

12%

11%

6%

3%

3%

3%

3%

6%

8%

10%

13%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Petro Poroshenko

Yuliya Tymoshenko

Vitaliy Klychko

Serhiy Tihipko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Petro Symonenko

Oleh Tyahnybok

Mykhaylo Dobkin

Other

Against all

I would not vote

Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Ukraine without Crimea

Page 51: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

51

64%

23%

4%

3%

2%

4%

1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Yuliya Tymoshenko

Petro Poroshenko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Vitaliy Klychko

Oleh Tyahnybok

Other

Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Respondents, in parliamentary elections intending to vote for Batkivshchyna, N=187

Page 52: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

52

71%

19%

3%

2%

1%

2%

3%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Vitaliy Klychko

Petro Poroshenko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Serhiy Tihipko

Yuliya Tymoshenko

Other

Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Respondents, in parliamentary elections intending to vote for Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform, N=147

Page 53: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

53

91%

3%

2%

1%

2%

2%

0% 50% 100%

Petro Poroshenko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Petro Symonenko

Yuliya Tymoshenko

Other

Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Respondents, in parliamentary elections intending to vote for Solidarnist, N=134

Page 54: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

54

55%

14%

3%

2%

1%

7%

2%

2%

14%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Serhiy Tihipko

Mykhaylo Dobkin

Petro Symonenko

Nataliya Korolevska

Petro Poroshenko

Other

Against all

I would not vote

Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Respondents, in parliamentary elections intending to vote for Party of Regions, N=73

Page 55: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

55

43%

30%

8%

6%

4%

2%

7%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Oleh Tyahnybok

Petro Poroshenko

Vitaliy Klychko

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Yuliya Tymoshenko

Dmytro Yarosh

Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Respondents, in parliamentary elections intending to vote for Svoboda, N=56

Page 56: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014?

56

7%

7%

5%

3%

2%

1%

1%

1%

5%

19%

4%

46%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Petro Poroshenko

Serhiy Tihipko

Mykhaylo Dobkin

Anatoliy Hrytsenko

Yuliya Tymoshenko

Vitaliy Klychko

Petro Symonenko

Nataliya Korolevska

Other

Against all

I would not vote

Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Respondents having no opinion for which party to vote in parliamentary elections, N=248

Page 57: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for?

57

25%

26%

19%

20%

31%

32%

15%

11%

10%

10%

Ukraine

Ukraine withoutCrimea

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Vitaliy Klychko Yuliya Tymoshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Page 58: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for?

58

50%

32%

5%

11%

29%

29%

11%

7%

9%

26%

31%

52%

3%

3%

46%

17%

8%

10%

7%

12%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Vitaliy Klychko Yuliya Tymoshenko Against bothI would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Page 59: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for?

59

17%

18%

35%

36%

25%

26%

14%

11%

9%

9%

Ukraine

Ukraine withoutCrimea

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Vitaliy Klychko Petro Poroshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Page 60: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for?

60

34%

20%

5%

9%

52%

54%

15%

13%

4%

15%

29%

49%

2%

2%

45%

16%

7%

9%

6%

13%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Vitaliy Klychko Petro Poroshenko Against bothI would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Page 61: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for?

61

37%

39%

12%

12%

25%

26%

15%

11%

11%

12%

Ukraine

Ukraine withoutCrimea

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Vitaliy Klychko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Page 62: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for?

62

74%

50%

9%

12%

3%

8%

9%

24%

10%

28%

28%

32%

3%

3%

45%

17%

10%

11%

9%

15%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Vitaliy Klychko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Page 63: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for?

63

36%

38%

15%

16%

25%

26%

15%

11%

9%

9%

Ukraine

Ukraine withoutCrimea

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Petro Poroshenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Page 64: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for?

64

62%

53%

12%

15%

23%

21%

11%

6%

6%

15%

27%

49%

2%

3%

45%

16%

7%

8%

5%

14%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Petro Poroshenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Against bothI would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Page 65: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for?

65

30%

32%

13%

13%

30%

32%

15%

11%

12%

12%

Ukraine

Ukraine withoutCrimea

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yuliya Tymoshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Page 66: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for?

66

58%

41%

12%

10%

5%

9%

9%

25%

20%

36%

27%

34%

5%

3%

44%

16%

12%

11%

8%

15%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Yuliya Tymoshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against bothI would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Page 67: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for?

67

46%

48%

10%

11%

19%

20%

15%

11%

10%

10%

Ukraine

Ukraine withoutCrimea

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Petro Poroshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Page 68: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for?

68

78%

69%

16%

16%

2%

7%

7%

22%

8%

14%

27%

29%

2%

3%

44%

17%

10%

7%

6%

16%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Petro Poroshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against bothI would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know

Page 69: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, will the next presidential election be…?

69

2%

4%

7%

17%

20%

34%

39%

35%

27%

26%

22%

15%

16%

19%

17%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fairAbsolutely not free and fair Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 70: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, will the next presidential election be…?

70

12%

12%

2%

1%

51%

48%

20%

14%

17%

22%

37%

34%

4%

4%

23%

30%

16%

13%

18%

21%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fairAbsolutely not free and fair Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 71: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

International Republican Institute

Parliamentary Elections

Page 72: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If early parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such elections?

72

33%

34%

41%

42%

36%

34%

35%

33%

8%

7%

8%

5%

19%

20%

10%

12%

4%

5%

6%

8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

May 2013

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 73: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If early parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such elections?

73

42%

45%

33%

34%

5%

4%

12%

9%

8%

8%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Ukraine

Ukraine withoutCrimea

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 74: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If early parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such elections?

74

67%

40%

27%

36%

26%

48%

24%

28%

3%

3%

7%

6%

2%

4%

36%

12%

2%

5%

6%

18%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 75: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for?

75

16%

12%

11%

6%

5%

4%

4%

1%

5%

16%

21%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko)

Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform(V.Klychko)

Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko)

Party of Regions

Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok)

Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko)

Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko)

Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh)

Other

I would not vote

Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 76: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for?

76

20%

16%

14%

7%

6%

5%

4%

2%

6%

20%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko)

Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform(V.Klychko)

Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko)

Party of Regions

Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok)

Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko)

Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko)

Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh)

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

Respondents who are going to vote in parliamentary elections, N=898

Page 77: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for?

77

24%

24%

18%

9%

7%

2%

1%

1%

2%

2%

11%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko)

Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform(V.Klychko)

Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko)

Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok)

Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko)

Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh)

Party of Regions

Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko)

Other

I would not vote

Don't know/Refused to answer

Western Ukraine

Page 78: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for?

78

23%

17%

16%

8%

6%

2%

2%

2%

5%

6%

13%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko)

Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko)

Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform(V.Klychko)

Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok)

Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko)

Party of Regions

Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko)

Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh)

Other

I would not vote

Don't know/Refused to answer

Central Ukraine

Page 79: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for?

79

10%

5%

5%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

4%

44%

23%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko)

Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko)

Party of Regions

Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko)

Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform(V.Klychko)

Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko)

Ukraine – Forward! (N.Korolevska)

Nasha Ukrayina (V.Yushchenko)

Other

I would not vote

Don't know/Refused to answer

Southern Ukraine

Page 80: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for?

80

15%

8%

5%

5%

4%

1%

1%

1%

1%

7%

18%

34%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Party of Regions

Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko)

Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko)

Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (V.Klychko)

Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko)

Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok)

Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko)

Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh)

Ukraine – Forward! (N.Korolevska)

Other

I would not vote

Don't know/Refused to answer

Eastern Ukraine

Page 81: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for?

81

17%

13%

12%

6%

5%

4%

4%

1%

5%

12%

21%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko)

Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform(V.Klychko)

Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko)

Party of Regions

Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok)

Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko)

Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko)

Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh)

Other

I would not vote

Don't know/Refused to answer

Ukraine without Crimea

Page 82: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, will the next parliamentary elections be…?

82

4%

7%

20%

33%

36%

26%

22%

16%

18%

18%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

February 2014

March 2014

Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fairAbsolutely not free and fair Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 83: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, will the next parliamentary elections be…?

83

10%

13%

2%

1%

49%

48%

19%

14%

17%

20%

37%

32%

4%

6%

24%

33%

20%

13%

18%

20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fairAbsolutely not free and fair Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 84: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

International Republican Institute

Mood of Ukraine

Page 85: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction?

85

13%

13%

14%

24%

15% 15%

18%

30%

71%73%

66%

58%

69% 67%64%

52%

16%

14%

20%

18%

16% 18%

17%

18%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

November2011

March2012

May 2012 August2012

May 2013 September2013

February2014

March2014

Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 86: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction?

86

42%

54%

13%

8%

36%

29%

77%

72%

22%

18%

10%

20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 87: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Over the last 12 months, the financial situation of your household has…?

87

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

6%

6%

9%

14%

8%

9%

8%

3%

37%

39%

45%

37%

46%

41%

44%

46%

36%

34%

30%

27%

30%

30%

31%

29%

18%

18%

13%

15%

14%

17%

14%

18%

2%

2%

3%

5%

1%

2%

2%

3%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

November 2011

March 2012

May 2012

August 2012

May 2013

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same

Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 88: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Over the last 12 months, the financial situation of your household has…?

88

1%

1%

5%

3%

3%

2%

56%

54%

33%

39%

24%

29%

27%

33%

10%

11%

29%

24%

4%

2%

7%

2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same

Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/Refused to answer

<1%

<1%

Page 89: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In the next 12 months, do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine will…?

89

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

1%

1%

7%

8%

13%

17%

8%

12%

9%

11%

30%

32%

35%

31%

38%

27%

20%

16%

32%

32%

26%

24%

29%

29%

31%

26%

17%

15%

11%

11%

12%

17%

28%

35%

13%

12%

14%

16%

12%

13%

12%

11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

November 2011

March 2012

May 2012

August 2012

May 2013

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the sameWorsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/Refused to answer

<1%

Page 90: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In the next 12 months, do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine will…?

90

1%

1%

1%

15%

21%

4%

4%

23%

20%

16%

8%

28%

31%

18%

24%

18%

18%

59%

49%

15%

9%

3%

14%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the sameWorsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 91: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Are you ready to live through some economic difficulties now (e.g., higher tariffs and prices) if it makes your life better in long term?

91

10%

29%

21%

30%

10%

Definitely yes

Rather yes

Rather no

Definitely no

Don't know/Refusedto answer

Page 92: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Are you ready to live through some economic difficulties now (e.g., higher tariffs and prices) if it makes your life better in long term?

92

22%

10%

5%

2%

44%

38%

17%

15%

13%

25%

24%

22%

11%

16%

44%

51%

10%

11%

9%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 93: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

International Republican Institute

Views on Foreign Countries

Page 94: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

How would you evaluate your attitude towards…?

94

50%

46%

40%

37%

31%

34%

31%

40%

38%

21%

15%

22%

16%

24%

45%

1%

1%

4%

1%

2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Poland

EuropeanUnion

Canada

United States

Russia

Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 95: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

How would you evaluate your attitude towards…?

95

81%

79%

71%

66%

12%

17%

19%

25%

30%

18%

2%

2%

1%

3%

68%

3%

1%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

EuropeanUnion

Poland

Canada

United States

Russia

Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/Refused to answer

Western Ukraine

Page 96: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

How would you evaluate your attitude towards…?

96

70%

61%

55%

53%

10%

28%

30%

40%

39%

20%

2%

7%

2%

7%

68%

2%

3%

1%

2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Poland

EuropeanUnion

Canada

United States

Russia

Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/Refused to answer

Central Ukraine

Page 97: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

How would you evaluate your attitude towards…?

97

46%

25%

21%

15%

11%

24%

43%

39%

46%

53%

28%

31%

39%

38%

32%

2%

1%

1%

1%

4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Russia

Poland

EuropeanUnion

United States

Canada

Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/Refused to answer

Southern Ukraine

Page 98: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

How would you evaluate your attitude towards…?

98

59%

24%

20%

18%

12%

23%

48%

45%

38%

38%

15%

27%

30%

42%

49%

3%

1%

5%

2%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Russia

Poland

Canada

EuropeanUnion

United States

Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/Refused to answer

Eastern Ukraine

Page 99: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

International Republican Institute

Views on the EuroMaidan Protests

Page 100: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Did you support the EuroMaidan protests in Ukraine?

100

23%

31%

22%

26%

18%

11%

33%

27%

5%

5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

February 2014

March 2014

Strongly supported Rather supported Rather didn't supportStrongly didn't support Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 101: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Did you support the EuroMaidan protests in Ukraine?

101

66%

41%

11%

7%

25%

39%

21%

17%

4%

7%

15%

18%

3%

7%

48%

50%

2%

5%

4%

7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Strongly supported Rather supported Rather didn't supportStrongly didn't support Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 102: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

How have you perceived these protests?

102

25%

22%

17%

16%

14%

2%

4%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

This is a revolution

This is a movement forrapprochement with Europe

This is a political coup d’etat

This is a conflict of Ukrainianelites

It's a mess and chaos

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 103: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

How have you perceived these protests?

103

44%

27%

11%

10%

2%

1%

5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

This is a revolution

This is a movement forrapprochement with Europe

This is a political coup d’etat

This is a conflict of Ukrainianelites

It's a mess and chaos

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

Western Ukraine

Page 104: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

How have you perceived these protests?

104

34%

28%

15%

9%

6%

3%

5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

This is a movement forrapprochement with Europe

This is a revolution

This is a conflict of Ukrainianelites

This is a political coup d’etat

It's a mess and chaos

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

Central Ukraine

Page 105: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

How have you perceived these protests?

105

30%

27%

17%

12%

11%

1%

2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

It's a mess and chaos

This is a political coup d’etat

This is a revolution

This is a movement forrapprochement with Europe

This is a conflict of Ukrainianelites

Other

Don't know/Refused toanswer

Southern Ukraine

Page 106: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

How have you perceived these protests?

106

26%

26%

19%

14%

12%

1%

2%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

This is a political coup d’etat

This is a conflict of Ukrainianelites

It's a mess and chaos

This is a revolution

This is a movement forrapprochement with Europe

Other

Don't know/Refused toanswer

Eastern Ukraine

Page 107: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, have the protests on the Maidan achieved their goal?

107

9%

36%

23%

19%

13%

Definitely yes

Rather yes

Rather no

Definitely no

Don't know/Refused toanswer

Page 108: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, have the protests on the Maidan achieved their goal?

108

16%

10%

5%

5%

53%

45%

17%

26%

15%

27%

24%

24%

5%

7%

40%

27%

11%

11%

14%

18%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 109: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, the changes which were brought by the protests on the Maidan will improve or worsen the situation in

Ukraine?

109

11%

31%

13%

11%

26%

8%

Improve a lot

Improve somewhat

Stay the same

Worsen somewhat

Worsen a lot

Difficult to answer/Noanswer

Page 110: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, the changes which were brought by the protests on the Maidan will improve or worsen the situation in

Ukraine?

110

28%

11%

5%

3%

38%

47%

18%

16%

17%

10%

8%

18%

4%

16%

13%

10%

3%

9%

53%

43%

10%

6%

3%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Improve a lot Improve somewhat

Stay the same Worsen somewhat

Worsen a lot Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 111: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, the changes which were brought by the protests on the Maidan will improve or worsen the situation for you personally?

111

7%

24%

27%

11%

21%

10%

Improve a lot

Improve somewhat

Stay the same

Worsen somewhat

Worsen a lot

Difficult to answer/Noanswer

Page 112: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, the changes which were brought by the protests on the Maidan will improve or worsen the situation for you personally?

112

15%

6%

6%

2%

35%

32%

15%

14%

33%

34%

15%

23%

2%

14%

16%

12%

3%

6%

34%

41%

12%

8%

14%

8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same

Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 113: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

From what sources of information have you received information about EuroMaidan events and current political situation in Ukraine?

113

91%

41%

40%

33%

30%

25%

15%

13%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

0% 50% 100%

Ukrainian TV

Internet

Relatives/Friends

Newspapers

Russian TV

Radio

Colleagues at work

Social networks (Facebook, Vkontakte, Odnoklasniki)

Magazines

Billboards/Stands in the streets

Leaflets/Other printed materials

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

(several answers possible)

Page 114: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

From what sources of information have you received information about EuroMaidan events and current political situation in Ukraine?

114

96%

43%

43%

33%

33%

14%

10%

9%

2%

1%

1%

0% 50% 100%

Ukrainian TV

Newspapers

Internet

Radio

Relatives/Friends

Russian TV

Social networks (Facebook, Vkontakte, Odnoklasniki)

Colleagues at work

Magazines

Billboards/Stands in the streets

Don't know/Refused to answer

Western Ukraine(several answers possible)

Page 115: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

From what sources of information have you received information about EuroMaidan events and current political situation in Ukraine?

115

95%

49%

38%

36%

34%

20%

16%

11%

5%

4%

3%

2%

2%

0% 50% 100%

Ukrainian TV

Relatives/Friends

Newspapers

Internet

Radio

Colleagues at work

Russian TV

Social networks (Facebook, Vkontakte, Odnoklasniki)

Magazines

Billboards/Stands in the streets

Leaflets/Other printed materials

Meetings with politicians

Other

Central Ukraine(several answers possible)

Page 116: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

From what sources of information have you received information about EuroMaidan events and current political situation in Ukraine?

116

82%

47%

46%

30%

29%

25%

17%

14%

1%

1%

0% 50% 100%

Ukrainian TV

Russian TV

Internet

Relatives/Friends

Newspapers

Social networks (Facebook, Vkontakte, Odnoklasniki)

Radio

Colleagues at work

Magazines

Billboards/Stands in the streets

Southern Ukraine(several answers possible)

Page 117: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

From what sources of information have you received information about EuroMaidan events and current political situation in Ukraine?

117

90%

44%

43%

41%

21%

15%

13%

10%

1%

1%

0% 50% 100%

Ukrainian TV

Russian TV

Relatives/Friends

Internet

Newspapers

Colleagues at work

Radio

Social networks (Facebook, Vkontakte, Odnoklasniki)

Magazines

Don't know/Refused to answer

Eastern Ukraine(several answers possible)

Page 118: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

International Republican Institute

Priorities and Views on the New Government

Page 119: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister

Yatsenyuk?

119

50%

24%

24%

22%

21%

19%

17%

16%

15%

14%

13%

7%

6%

5%

5%

5%

4%

3%

3%

2%

1%

4%

6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Anticorruption/Public procurement

Defense/Military

Pension/Social benefits

Industrial production

Public administration/Civil service

Healthcare

Law-enforcement

Judiciary

Agriculture/Land

Lustration

Decentralization/Local self-governance

Elections/Referendum

Deregulation/Support of entrepreneurship

Taxes

Education/Science

Housing/Communal economy

Energy

Infrastructure/Roads/Etc.

Youth

Environment

Sport

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 120: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister

Yatsenyuk?

120

57%

36%

28%

23%

21%

19%

15%

13%

13%

12%

10%

8%

8%

7%

5%

5%

4%

2%

2%

2%

2%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Anticorruption/Public procurement

Defense/Military

Public administration/Civil service

Law-enforcement

Lustration

Judiciary

Pension/Social benefits

Industrial development

Healthcare

Decentralization/Local self-governance

Agriculture/Land

Elections/Referendum

Education/Science

Taxes

Deregulation/Support of entrepreneurship

Infrastructure/Roads/Etc.

Youth

Energy

Housing/Communal economy

Environment

Don't know/Refused to answer

Western Ukraine

Page 121: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister

Yatsenyuk?

121

53%

35%

26%

21%

21%

21%

20%

19%

18%

17%

8%

6%

5%

5%

5%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

2%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Anticorruption/Public procurement

Defense/Military

Pension/Social benefits

Law-enforcement

Healthcare

Agriculture/Land

Industrial development

Judiciary

Public administration/Civil service

Lustration

Decentralization/Local self-governance

Energy

Elections/Referendum

Deregulation/Support of entrepreneurship

Taxes

Education/Science

Infrastructure/Roads/Etc.

Youth

Housing/Communal economy

Environment

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

Central Ukraine

Page 122: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister

Yatsenyuk?

122

40%

29%

17%

17%

16%

16%

15%

14%

12%

10%

10%

8%

8%

6%

4%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

5%

17%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Anticorruption/Public procurement

Industrial development

Public administration/Civil service

Pension/Social benefits

Defense/Military

Healthcare

Decentralization/Local self-governance

Agriculture/Land

Deregulation/Support of entrepreneurship

Judiciary

Elections/Referendum

Law-enforcement

Housing/Communal economy

EducationScience

Lustration

Taxes

Energy

Infrastructure/Roads/Etc.

Youth

Sport

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

Southern Ukraine

Page 123: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister

Yatsenyuk?

123

47%

33%

26%

23%

21%

17%

14%

14%

12%

10%

8%

7%

6%

4%

3%

3%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

8%

8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Anticorruption/Public procurement

Pension/Social benefits

Industrial development

Healthcare

Public administration/Civil service

Decentralization and Local self-governance

Judiciary

Law-enforcement

Agriculture/Land

Housing/Communal economy

Defense/Military

Elections/Referendum

Taxes

Energy

Deregulation/Support of entrepreneurship

Education/Science

Environment

Infrastructure/Roads/Etc.

Youth

Sport

Lustration

Other

Don't know/Refused to answer

Eastern Ukraine

Page 124: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Do you approve or disapprove of the job acting President of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov is doing?

124

9%

33%

20%

27%

11%

Strongly approve

Somewhat approve

Somewhat disapprove

Strongly disapprove

Don't know/Refused toanswer

Page 125: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Do you approve or disapprove of the job acting President of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov is doing?

125

20%

12%

3%

3%

51%

51%

16%

12%

16%

18%

18%

25%

5%

6%

54%

48%

8%

13%

9%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 126: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk is doing?

126

12%

35%

17%

27%

9%

Strongly approve

Somewhat approve

Somewhat disapprove

Strongly disapprove

Don't know/Refused toanswer

Page 127: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk is doing?

127

27%

15%

5%

3%

51%

51%

19%

13%

10%

17%

17%

24%

5%

8%

53%

47%

7%

9%

6%

13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 128: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Parliament of Ukraine is doing?

128

<1%

2%

6%

10%

11%

33%

35%

30%

24%

45%

50%

26%

9%

7%

11%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 129: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Parliament of Ukraine is doing?

129

11%

8%

3%

2%

53%

46%

16%

13%

20%

23%

25%

28%

6%

9%

48%

45%

10%

14%

8%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

West

Center

South

East

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 130: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

International Republican Institute

Demographics

Page 131: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Demographics

45%

55%

23%

35%

42%

83%

13%

4%

29%

40%

31%

23%

2%

18%

1%

30%

6%

7%

10%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Male

Female

18-29 years

30-49 years

50 years and older

Ukrainian

Russian

Other

Secondary or lower

Vocational

Higher

Blue collar

Farmer

White collar

Higher or medium executive

Retired (not working)

Student

Housewife

Unemployed

Other

GEN

DER

AG

EETH

NIC

ITY

ED

UCATIO

NO

CCU

PATIO

N

131

Page 132: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Demographics

132

78%

7%

3%

1%

11%

41%

57%

1%

1%

13%

8%

18%

8%

22%

31%

22%

30%

19%

29%

0% 50% 100%

Orthodox

Greek Catholic

Other

Atheist

Believe in God but don't belong to any religion

Bad

Average

Good

No answer

City with more than 1 million

City with 500-999 thousand

City with 100-499 thousand

City with 50-99 thousand

Up to 50 thousand

Rural area

West

Center

South

East

RELIG

ION

SIT

UATIO

N O

FFAM

ILY

SETTLEM

EN

T T

YPE

REG

ION

S

Page 133: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

Demographics

133

Oblasts in the West:

Chernivetska, Ivano-Frankivska, Khmelnytska, Lvivska

Rivnenska, Ternopilska, Transcarpathian, Volynska

Oblasts in the Center:

Cherkaska, Chernihivska, Kirovogradska, Kyivska, Poltavska,

Sumska, Vinnytska, Zhytomyrska, and the city of Kyiv

Oblasts in the South:

Autonomous Region of Crimea, Khersonska, Mykolaivska,

Odeska, Sevastopol, Zaporizka

Oblasts in the East:

Dnipropetrovska, Donetska, Kharkivska, Luhanska

Page 134: IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

What can you say about the financial status of your family?

134

12%

11%

11%

12%

7%

10%

8%

11%

30%

31%

31%

29%

30%

26%

26%

30%

41%

36%

38%

41%

42%

41%

45%

44%

14%

17%

15%

14%

20%

20%

18%

13%

2%

3%

3%

3%

1%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Nov 2011

March 2012

May 2012

August 2012

May 2013

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

Need to save money for food

Enough money for food but it is necessary to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes

Enough money for food and necessary clothes and shoes. It is necessary to save or borrow money for such purchases as a goodsuit, a mobile phone or a vacuum cleaner

Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and other purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchasingmore expensive things (such as a laundry machine or a refrigerator)

Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and expensive purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchaseslike a car or an apartment

I can buy anything at any time