IFPRI- dynamics of pulses production

Dynamics of Pulses Production Presented by

K. Inbasekar Scientist (Agricultural Economics),

Division of Agricultural Economics

Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi

January 14th, 2014 , New Delhi

Advisor

Dr. Devesh Roy Research Fellow

IFPRI

Introduction Neglected by Green Revolution

India’s position in the world:

33% of area

25% of production

27% of consumption

Imports 3 - 4 million tones of pulses every year

Important source of protein

Per capita availability decreasing – 60 g/day in 1950 &

31.6 g/day in 2011

Importance of pulses in Indian Agriculture

Sustainable agricultural production

Improving soil health and nutrient fixation

Fodder for cattle

Raw material for industries

Important rain-fed crop

Government’s response….

Pulses Development Scheme (4th FYP) (1969-70 to 1973-74)

National Pulses Development Project (7th FYP) (1985-86 to

1989-90)

Special Food Grain Production Program (1988-89)

ISOPOM – (2004)

NFSM-Pulses (A3P) – (2007-08)

Special Plan to achieve 19+ Million tonnes of Pulses

production during Kharif (2012-13)

To study the spatial and temporal variation

in pulses production in India with special

emphasis on chickpea and pigeonpea.

To study the factors affecting relative area

allocation to pulses.

Objectives

Four distinct phases of pulses

development

Pre-green Revolution period (1960-1970)

Stagnant area and production

No major breakthroughs in pulses research and

government schemes

Post-green revolution period (1971-1990)

Area and production decreased in northern and eastern

zones

Area and production increased in southern, western and

central zones

Pulses Development Scheme (4th Plan)

Post-liberalization period (1991-2000)

Further increase in pulses area and production in southern

and western states

Short duration and wilt resistant

Special Food Grain Production Program (1988-89)

Post-trade spike period (2001 – present)

Third take off in pulses area and production in southern

states and western states

Could trade have played a role in domestic production and

consumption?

Four distinct phases of pulses

development

8

Crops Particulars

Pre - green

Revolution

(1960-70)

Post - green

revolution

(1971-90)

Post - liberalization

(1991-2000)

Post - trade

spike

(2000-2010)

Chick Pea

Area -21.64 - 18.46 17.68 6.43

Production - 9.73 - 18.06 39.19 12.3

Yield 14.98 0.51 19.02 5.12

Pigeon Pea

Area 8.26 32.54 -1.89 3.37

Production 10.68 42.6 -5.81 7.64

Yield 2.4 7.32 -3.99 3.91

Total Pulses

Area - 8.02 3.31 - 0.93 2.25

Production - 0.87 10.34 2.15 14.08

Yield 7.97 6.72 3.67 11.23

Wheat

Area +26.11 48.53 15.62 3.18

Production 95.54 171.58 42.55 12.13

Yield 55.13 82.98 23.33 8.73

Paddy

Area 11.88 10.46 8.72 - 1.53

Production 33.77 70.56 28.55 10.34

Yield 19.72 54.00 18.54 12.09

(Percentage change)

All over India – Comparative Performance of pulses & cereals

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Yie

ld (

kg

/ha

)

Are

a &

Pro

du

ctio

n (

mil

lio

ns)

Total Pulses Scenario - India

Area (million ha) Production (million tonnes)

Yield(kg/ha) Linear (Area (million ha))

Linear (Production (million tonnes)) Linear (Yield(kg/ha))

Zone-wise total pulses area

0

20

40

60

80

100

'00

0 h

a

Northern Zone II

Himachal Pradesh Jammu & Kashmir Uttarakhand

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

'000 h

a Northern Zone I

Haryana Punjab Uttar Pradesh

10

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

'00

0 h

a

Southern Zone

Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Tamil Nadu

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

'000 h

a

Kerala

Kerala

Zone-wise total pulses area – contd.,

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

'000 h

a

Eastern Zone

Bihar Orissa West Bengal Jharkhand

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

'00

0 h

a

Western Zone

Gujarat Maharashtra Rajasthan

Zone-wise total pulses area – contd.,

12

Zone-wise total pulses area – contd.,

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

'00

0 h

a

North Eastern Zone

Manipur Nagaland

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

*0

00

ha

Central Zone

Madhya Pradesh

Chickpea Area (‘000 ha)

Chickpea Production (‘000 tons)

Chickpea Yield (kg/ha)

Pigeon pea Area (‘000 ha)

Pigeon pea Production (‘000 tons)

Pigeon pea Yield (Kg/ha)

Changing composition of Indian pulses production basket – TE 1991

Chickpea 36%

Pigeonpea 19%

Lentil 5%

Blackgram 12%

Greengram 10%

Peas 4%

Others 14%

Chickpea 42%

Pigeonpea 17%

Lentil 7%

Blackgram 9%

Greengram 7%

Peas 5%

Others 13%

Changing composition of Indian pulses production basket – TE 2000

Chickpea 47%

Pigeonpea 16%

Lentil 6%

Blackgram 10%

Greengram 8%

Peas 4%

Others 9%

Changing composition of Indian pulses production basket – TE 2012

Chickpea : Yield growth and Instability

1.46

3.26

-0.59

2.06 1.2

0.29 0.57

3.17

2.14

7.88

0.74

5.53

1.22

19.7

14.3

13.2

16.4

14.8

3.9

2.4

13

11.9 11.3

24.7

20

18.7

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Post-trade spike (2001-2010)

Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) Coefficient of Variation (%)

Chickpea: Yield-Gap Analysis

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1589

676

1660

1389 1395 1393 1390 1418

1140

714

1689

1096

1809

1610

687

594

952

1046

941

808

1041

907

576 638

1264

509

835

1063

902

82

708

343

454

585

349

511 564

76

425

587

974

547

kg

/h

a

Attainable Yield (kg/ha) Actual Average Yield (kg/ha) Yield Gap (kg/ha)

Pigeonpea: Yield growth and Instability

3.82

1.16

-5.25

2.26

4.47

1.17

-0.31 -0.03

5.2

-0.22

9.79

4.41

1.82 1.09

14.13

4.26

17.52

19.05

24.89

11.29

2.09

12.14

14.64

12.04

28.75

34.3

13.97

10.13

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40 Post-trade spike (2001-2010)

Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) Coefficient of Variation (%)

Pigeonpea: Yield-Gap Analysis

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

16001597

964

898

1107

828

694

769 721

1169

898

337

750

986

440

594

662

415

718 699

627

148 121

388

100 107

306

451

kg/h

a

Attainable Yield (kg/ha) Actual Average Yield (kg/ha) Yield Gap (kg/ha)

Determinants of area allocation for chickpea with respect to

competing crops Explanatory Variables

Unit Fixed effect coefficients

Road Density percentage 0.000814 (0.0006)

Fertilizer Consumption

kg/ha 9.37e-05 (0.0005)

Market Density percentage 0.00893 (0.01)

Urban percentage 0.00218 (0.007)

September rainfall mille meter 9.02e-05 (9.33e-05)

October rainfall mille meter 6.56e-05 (0.0001)

Smallholders percentage -0.00736** (0.003)

Tractors no/1000 ha -0.00426*** (0.001)

Per Capita Income Rupees -7.66e-06* (4.21e-06)

Wage Rupees -0.00228** (0.0009)

Irrigated Area percentage -0.00338* (0.002)

No. of observations - 347 R-squared - 0.711 RMSE - 0.106

Year Fixed Effect Year

Dummy Coefficients

Base Year : 1981

Standar

d Error

1994 0.0955** 0.04

1995 0.113** 0.04

1996 0.122** 0.04

1997 0.163*** 0.05

1998 0.182*** 0.05

1999 0.169*** 0.05

2000 0.153*** 0.05

2001 0.203*** 0.05

2002 0.212*** 0.05

States Fixed Effect State

Dummy

Coefficients

Base State :

Madhya Pradesh

Standard Error

Andhra Pradesh -0.260*** 0.07

Assam -0.277** 0.13

Gujarat -0.415*** 0.07

Karnataka -0.310*** 0.06

Maharashtra -0.488*** 0.10

Punjab -0.298** 0.12

Rajasthan -0.112*** 0.04

Tamil Nadu -0.424*** 0.12

West Bengal -0.275** 0.11

Spatial variation in chickpea area allocation

Major Findings and policy implications

Major Findings

Pulses are competing with

cereals (chickpea with wheat

& pigeonpea with paddy),

irrigation negatively

associated with relative area

allocation to pulses.

Decoupling of centres of

pulses production and

consumption.

Policy Implications

Integrated agricultural

policy with clear cut

strategies – MSP,

Procurement

infrastructure.

Developing effective supply

chain management system

29

Authorities

Central & State

Governments

Central & State

Governments,

Private sector

Major Findings

Within states – regional

specialization & Between

states - geographical

continuity observed.

High yield instability and

yield gap observed in the

northern & western India

Region specific

technologies and crop

varieties will serve well.

Diffusion of available

technologies, improving

Seed Replacement Rate

Policy Implications Authorities

ICAR, CGIAR,

SAU’s

State

Governments

Major Findings

July rainfall – Negatively

associated with relative area

allocation to pigeonpea

Take soil conservation,

drainage, agronomic

measures to address flooding

problem in pigeonpea

Developing short duration

flood resistant varieties in

pigeonpea

Policy Implications Authorities

State

Governments

ICAR, CGIAR,

SAU’s

Thank you !!!!!