IFPRI- changing pattern of trade and its implication on pulses

Changing Patterns of Pulses Trade

By Raj Chandra

Sr. Research Assistant International Food Policy Research Institute

&

Devesh Roy Research Fellow

International Food Policy Research Institute

Why study pulses trade?

• Trade has significant implication on production, consumption and resource allocation (land, water, labor allocations)

• Fact- Biggest changes across commodities in terms of these markers during trade spike period (beginning around 2000)

• Several government program aimed at scaling up production notwithstanding

• Yet pulses trade has not been studied in much detail • Preemptive question- Are Pulses going to be next

edible oil?? Positive as opposed to a normative question

Pulses-Next Edible Oil??

Portent Signs

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Total Quantity Imported- Edible Oil & Pulses

Edible Oil

Pulses

Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2012

Pulses next Edible Oil?

• Import penetration in case of edible oil has reached 50 per cent

• Import penetration for pulses has increased to 19.6% in 2010. In odd years equal to quarter share

• India’s fight with high food prices – rely on trade (though not systematically) to cool markets

• Imports can have a cooling effect on pulse markets – Which commodity with what consistency

• Inconsistent trade policy

• Need to study trade systematically

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About Data Set

• Study is based on a highly disaggregated 8 digit customs data – Novel part of the study

• Several details- disaggregated commodity, landing ports, trading partners, entry timing, volume, value and retailers

• Apparently a simple task – Made arduous – Volume not standardized in units of measurement. – Commodities named differently Ex: Urad, Udid, Urid, Orid, Black Matpe/Mapte, Black Gram – Several different units such as bags, containers,

cartons, boxes, numbers, kgs have been converted into common denomination

Units are not uniform

Product Description UNIT

E-36 CHANA ROASTED,25KGS, BAG

(SION SR. NO K65) KABULI CHANA 1KG (1403,) 200 X 25 X 1KG

BOX

TOOR DAL (2 LBS) 910 G PAC

30 CTNS URID DHALL WHOLE PCS

E36 UDAD DAL WASHED (MATPE BEANS), (907 GMS X 20 PKTS),

PKG

600 BAGS TOOR DAL QTL

TDM"" BESAN(CHICK PAES FLOUR) PACKE,D IN PLASTIC & PAPER PACKIN

NOS

E-36 URAD DAL WHITE (MARSH DAL) CAS

MOONG DAAL CTN

Salient findings of the study

• Leapfrogging of peas imports

• Congruent changes between domestic production and imports

• Varietal and partner mix in the import portfolio dynamic

• The extensive and intensive margin domains vary by commodity

• Fledgling exports evolving in value added items

Transition: 2001 – 2010 (the peas

leapfrog) % Share in total quantity imported-2001

% Share in total quantity imported- 2010

Peas 18%

Pigeon Pea 18%

BM 21%

Chick Peas 24%

Moong 13%

Lentils 1%

Beans 3%

other 2%

Peas 49%

Pigeon Pea 8%

BM 18%

Chick Peas 4%

Moong 7%

Lentils 7%

Beans 5%

other 2%

8 Source: Customs Data

Evolution of Trade across Commodity

over Time

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Percentage share of different commodity in total import

Peas

Pigeon Pea

Black Matpe

Chick Peas

Source: Customs Data

Yellow Peas-Palm Oil of Pulses Market

• “Yellow peas are the palm oil of the pulses market. The way world's cheapest oil—palm —has set the cap on soya and mustard oils, yellow peas too are setting the market trend in pulses. Their importance will continue to expand in the coming years.”

Gaurav Sekhri, MD Tinna Overseas

• Yellow Peas are the lowest priced pulse available in the world market

• Import price for YP is just Rs15/kg compared to Rs40/kg for Pigeon Pea

• Attractive for traders

• Used as both raw (dal) and processed (besan)

• Canada is the biggest supplier of yellow pea to India

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List of Exporting Countries

Asia Pacific Asia Pacific Europe Africa North & South America

China Nepal Russia Ethiopia United States

Indonesia Myanmar Turkey Madagascar Brazil

Iran Uzbekistan Ukraine Tanzania Peru

Iraq Pakistan France Mozambique Canada

Hong Kong Malaysia Belgium Malawi Australia

Sri Lanka UAE Great Britain Uganda

UAE Thailand Italy Kenya

Leading Exporters to India

Pulses Countries

Peas Canada

Pigeon Pea Myanmar

Chick Pea Australia

Black Matpe Myanmar

Green Gram Myanmar

Lentils Canada

Evolution of Trading Partner's share

Year 2001 Year 2005

Australia 3%

Canada 21%

Iran 10%

Myanmar 41%

Singapore 5%

Others 20%

Australia 3%

Canada 40%

Myanmar 36%

Tanzania 4%

United States

3%

Others 14%

Source: Customs Data

Evolution of Trading Partner’s share year 2012

Australia 10%

Canada 28%

Myanmar 17%

Russia 13%

United States 3%

Tanzania 2%

France 3%

Ukarine 1%

Others 23%

Source: Customs data

Why study Export?

• Around 2-3 per cent of total production is exported every year. • Annual growth rate of 23 per cent for volume and 32 per cent for

value of export, between 2000-2012 • Prices could have increased at a higher rate than quantity exported • Imports and Exports are linked through intermediary inputs-Scope

for Intra-industry trade • Whether we have comparative advantage in exporting processed

pulses? • Earning of 300 million US dollars in 2012 • Can India become a net exporter of pulses like happened in case of

cotton? • Global exporter and second largest cotton producer in the world

Any lessons from Cotton Industry?

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Cotton- From Net Importer to Net Exporter

Export

Import

Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2012

Trade Policy for Exports

• Initially export was prohibited for 6 months in June’2006

• Prohibition was extended from time to time

• According to latest DGFT notification prohibition is extended till 31st March,2014 with two exceptions:

Export of Kabuli Chana (allowed in March 2007)

10,000 MTs of organic pulses and lentils per annum

• Prohibition also exempts countries like Srilanka, Bhutan, Maldives, Mauritius and Nepal for some fixed quantity per annum .

Share of different Varieties in Total

Exports

Chick Peas 47%

Beans 28%

Lentils 3%

Black Matpe 11%

Moong 3%

Pigeon Peas 8%

Percentage Share in Total Exports (2012)

Chick Peas-From Net Import to Net

Export

• Chick peas exports constitutes 40-47% of total pulses exports (since 2007)

• Around 2% of total production is exported every year.

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Chick Pea- Export and Import

Chick Pea Export

Chick Pea Import

Export evolving in value added

pulse items Year Unit Value- Exports ($/ton) Unit Value-Imports ($/ton)

2000 468 428

2001 682 343

2002 842 260

2003 853 213

2004 269 288

2005 557 347

2006 741 370

2007 717 477

2008 846 522

2009 739 548

2010 696 474

Policy Implications

• Commodity wise detailed information

• Knowledge about the intensive and extensive margins of trade – Important for market power considerations

– Important for spreading out risk

• Trade crowding in or crowding out domestic production

• Resource allocation

• Trade and availability of pulses across varieties

• Trade’s Proactive/Reactionary effect

Thank you