GONITEC & ASG Cooperation (Technical & Economic Points) 28. Jan. 2014. KERI (J. YOON [email protected])
GONITEC & ASG Cooperation (Technical & Economic Points)
28. Jan. 2014.
KERI (J. YOON [email protected])
mailto:[email protected]
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Preliminary Concept Design of GOBITEC & ASG Descriptions 2
Advantages and Present Status of on NEA-PSI
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Cost Implications : Preliminary Economic Analysis 4
Impacts of NRE and Interconnection Technology
5 Issues, Opinions and Suggestions on ASG
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This Presentation will intend to discuss about ….
1) Necessity for ASG including GOBITEC between NEA Countries
Advantages & Obstacles & Issues to be Overcomes 2) How to determine the Concept Design of GOBITEC & ASG …
Type & Capacity & Route & Economic Points(B/C Ratio) 3) Characteristics of Interconnection Technologies …
Impacts of HVAC & HVDC(CSC or VSC) and NRE resources on ASG 4) Interconnection Options & Cost Implications … Proposed route and overall estimated costs for ASG
Preliminary Economic Analysis & Cost Implications Comparison of WAEC and TSUC depending on Capacity Factor
■ Trade of GHG Diffusion ■ Positive for environment
Deregulation ■ Regulation and Incentive (ex : Green power)
■ Cheap Fuel cost ■ Refuse NRE, DSM,IRP ■ Negative for Environ
■ Enhancement interconnection■ ■ Positive for NRE
■ Competition, Market ■ Enhancement deregulation ■ Transmission Right
■ Free Market ■ Economic viewpoint ■ Enhancement interconnection
GHG/Environ
Interconnection
Reliability/PQ Economics
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NEA Countries are island power systems until now : Cooperation is needed
Korean power system has many difficulties and challenges(options)
Very poor in natural resources and High increasing rate … Environmental protection and NIMBY phenomena Need to cooperate with DPRK and neighbouring Countries
Neighboring countries also have the necessity of power cooperation …
JAPAN : Fukushima Crisis and Need to cooperation MONGOLIA : Development of GOBITEC and ASG CHINA : High Increasing Rate and necessity for Power Import
ASG can be an alternative to ...
Overcome difficulties in power sector Utilize complementary characteristics between NEA countries
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No inter-ties on NEA with the exception of …
Weak 220kV ties b/t Siberia and RFE
Weak 220kV ties b/t Siberia and Central Mongolia
Weak 110kV and 220kV ties b/t RFE and Northeast China
Weak ties b/t North and Northeast China
Potentials interconnecting power system in NEA region
RF – CH
RF – JP
RF – DPRK – ROK
ROK – JP with submarine cable
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Undersea cable(DC)
DPRK
Under discussion
CH
Under discussion
Undersea cable(DC)
Existing Tie Line
Future planning Tie Line
Weak Tie Line(110/220kV)
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Installed Capacity(MW) & Generation(TWh)
World Top(CHINA), 3(JAPAN) & 4(RUSSIA) & 8(KOREA) 6TH Power Supply/Demand Plan (KOREA)
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Hydro Anthracite
coal Bituminous
coal Oil Gas Nuclear Others
Non-utility in common use TOTAL
Capacity of Generating
(MW)
6,446 (7.5%)
1,125 (1.3%)
23,409 (27.3%)
3,446 (4.0%)
21,336 (24.9%)
20,716 (24.2%)
5,329 (6.2%)
3,901 (4.6%) 85,708
Generation (GWh)
7,652 (1.5%)
8,768 (1.7%)
190,562 (35.8%)
11,569 (2.2%)
116,195 (21.9%)
150,327 (28.3%)
22,407 (4.2%)
23,148 (4.4%) 530,628
(As of Dec. 2012)
High Load Density & Condensed Power System Unbalance of Supply/Demand in SEOUL Metropolitan Areas (Over 42% of Total Load) Transmission Congestion Problem Fault Current Problem … Power System Security & Stability Problem
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This map is basically copied by the associated reference, but amended and direct length is added. *) “Tackling climate change ~~~ “
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ENERGY HIGHWAY, ASG(Asian Super Grid)
GOBITEC & ASG for Cross-border trade
Transmission Length will be 1.2~1.3 Time of Direct Length
GOBITEC, Total Capacity will be a some portion of Technically Developable Potentials of Wind & Solar NRE in GOBITEC
Mongolia Potential of NRE according to US DOE Data Energy Potential : 2.6TW (Wind 1.1+Solar 1.5) 2600GW Total NRE Potential (Wind, Solar, Geothermal …) 2.6TW Capacity Average Wind energy density is 7MW/km2, Solar 66MW/km2
Estimated Average Solar generation potential of 5.4[kWh/m2/day] If GOBI desert with 1,300,000[km2] area is covered with PV cells, the total annual power production will record up to 13,261TWh this value will be about 66% portion of the worldwide
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(Concept Design) GOBITEC/ASG system is composed of 4 parts ① Solar/Wind Farms for NRE Generation ② Collecting system from each Generation Sites to ASG ③ Cross-border transmission system (ASG) ④ Connecting system from ASG to Each Countries
Total System Compositions GOBITEC is composed of so many Wind/Solar Farms … (SRCL/SRCS) Sub Region Collecting Line & Converter Station
Collecting the Electricity of Each WF/SF to Regional Station … (RCL/RCS) Regional Collecting Line & Converter Station (TCL/TCS) Total Collecting Line & C/S, (Maybe 1~5 C/S) ASG Trunk Line for CBT
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Hierarchical structures and basic spec.….
Capacity(GW) of total solar and wind generation system Number of total solar/wind farm and its unit standard capacity Number of SRCS and its unit capacity Number of RCS and its unit capacity Number of TCS and its unit capacity ex) 1(100GW) or 2(50GW)
Technical Spec. …
Applied technology spec. to collecting generated power to SLCS, LCS and TCS. ex) AC or DC[VSC or CSC Type] spec.
Technical type of ASG corridor system(Transmission station and line) and voltage(kV) ex) HVAC or HVDC (VSC-HVDC or CSC-HVDC) Multi-terminal system
Voltage and length of ASG transmission line
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System Disturbances due to NRE
NRE Sources have usually WEIBULL Distribution Characteristics Inherent characteristic of Low Power Supply Reliability PQ(Power Quality) Facilities need to be installed to enhance
Supply Reliability
MTDC VSC-HVDC, not HVAC, is the only Alternative for ASG BTB(No C/S), PTP(2 C/S), MTDC(Multi Terminal DC)
Conventional CSC(Current Sourced Converter), Weak Control Capability
New VSC(Voltage Sourced Converter), High Control, but Capacity Limitation
‘A’ area
‘B’ area
DC T/L
C/S
‘A’ area
‘B’ area
AC T/L
S/S S/S
AC T/L
C/S
C/S
This is one of the chapter of ECS GOBITEC report, 2013 …
All Expenses/Costs should be given … To Calculate the Preliminary Economic Analysis … All of the fixed costs for GOBITEC and ASG is calculated …
(Sample) Preliminary case study was done by ECS in 2013 … Calculate WAEC(Weighted Average Electricity Charge) of Imported Countries. Derive TSUC(Total Supply Unit Cost) of GOBITEC plus ASG depending on Capacity Factor(Availability of Power Plants) (Economic Feasibility Analysis) Compare the difference between WAEC and TSUC
Ex) Distribution Share(%) of Total Generation to Each Country
Ex) Basic Cost Data for GOBITEC Solar/Wind Energy …
These Data only Sample It should be amended in the future …
Ex) Annual FCR(Fixed Cost Ratio %) : CRF(Cost Recovery Factor)
(Annual Fixed Charged Cost[M$])
(TSUC) Annual Fixed Charged Cost divided by Sales Energy
(Annual Sales Energy[kWh])
(Annual Sales Energy Amount[TWh/Year]) = (Annual Generation Amount X (1 – A – B)
where, A : Annual Sales Energy Amount (TWh/Year )
B : Annual Fixed Charged Cost($) + Annual Variable Cost($)
(Annual Generation Amount[TWh/Year]) = (Average Power[MW] X 365day X 24hour X 10-6
(Average Power[MW] = (Capacity[MW] X (Weighted Average Availability[%])
(WAEC) Weighted Average Electricity Charges[$/kWh]
Weighted Average Electricity Charge considering distribution share(%) for each country
TSUC($/kWh), Total Supply Unit Cost by GONITEC plus ASG
WAEC($/kWh), Weighted Average Electricity Charges of importing countries.
Calculate the difference DC between WAEC & TSUC depending on CF(Capacity Factor), (DC > 0) : Commercially Beneficial Business
DC = (WAEC-TSUC)[$/kWh],
CF = (Total Generation Amounts kWh) / (Generation Capacity x 8760)
WAEC is constant value in specific year, but, TSUC will be decreased as the CF (Capacity Factor) increasing
(DC>0) : In case of WAEC is higher than TSUC
Assuming GOBITEC 100GW plants (Solar & Wind 50:50) WAEC=0.115~0.136[$/kWh] (CF=60%) DC=0.059 (+) Positive Beneficial Project (CF=20%) DC=-0.032 (-) Negative Non-Beneficial Project
Sample Results depending on CF : WAEC & DC was calculated …
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Specific items to be studied (Preliminary studied)
Countries and locations (S/S) for GOBITEC/ASG
Determination of Capacity and Energy for CBT Overview of interconnection line route ? Interconnection Technology ? AC or DC or What type of DC Voltage grade(kV) and interconnection capacity(MW) ? Strength of each interconnected power system
Economic & Market viewpoints (Preliminary studied)
Free volume of electricity in future ?
Power exchange tariffs including transmission pricing ? Overall legal and management framework ?
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Category Opinions Power exchange
model ★ Simple power exchange model ★ Develop guidelines for power exchange.
Overseas benchmarking
model
★ Review NORDEL, SAPP, and England‐France power exchanges. ★ Introduction of a new trade market due to market restructuring. ★ Organize a derivative product market in preparation of unstable pricing.
Financing
★ directly related to economic feasibility, political and diplomatic relationship, law/regulation and policies support. DPRK uncertainty requires participants’ government guarantee and international financial institutions’ participation. ★ Consider long term contract, project collateral, and risk management for sound finance enhancement.
Politics and energy security
★ DPRK nuclear is the main issue. Necessity to forecast DPRK’s political change by phase.
Obstacles and solutions
★ No issue is raised in legal aspect, but DPRK laws should be examined if power system interconnection passes through DPRK. Establish a NEA Energy Charter Treaty as a long term perspective.
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Need to detailed Technical & Economic Study on ASG System Study for HVDC interconnection Ex) Total LCC Comparison in case of with or without GOBITEC & ASG
in case of with or without GOBITEC and ASG
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Contents of Basic Data, Cost & Benefit Net Present Value for Cost and Benefit during Total Life Cycle Utilize B/C Ratio, IRR(Internal Rate of Return), PBP(Pay Back Period)
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In this presentation we all discuss about … ① Concept Design of GOBITEC & ASG
② Preliminary Technical and Economic Study on GOBITEC & ASG
Everybody in here want to know … ① Future Possible Scenarios of GOBITEC & ASG
② Free volume of GOBITEC Electricity Trade Market ③ How can we realize the GOBITEC/ASG Project
However, We have some barriers, But, we truly believe Global Energy Network is necessary in NEA countries…
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