(funded by DG Research 5th FP)

IER

Universität Stuttgart

Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung

Multi-Pollutant Multi-Effect Modelling of European Air Pollution Control Strategies - an Integrated Approach

Case Studies & Joint Optimisation Results

(funded by DG Research 5th FP)

IER



The MERLIN team:• IER University of Stuttgart (Co-ordinator)

• Norwegian Meteorological Institute (met.no)

• Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Laboratory for Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering (AUT/LHTEE)

• University College London (UCL)

• ECOFYS Energy and Environment

• Institute for Ecology of Industrial Areas (IETU)

• Energy Research Center (ERC) of Ostrava Technical University

• National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH)

• University of Ploiesti (Ploiesti, Romania)

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Objectives

Development and application of methodologies and toolsfor an integrated assessment of European air pollution control strategies

• multi-pollutant, multi-effect assessment

• cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis

• application of advanced optimisation methods

• inclusion of non-technical measures

• macroeconomic effects and distributional burdens of air pollution control

• inclusion of new member states

Features

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Acidification

Eutrophication

TroposphericOzone

Global Warming

primary & secondary Aerosols

Urban Air Quality

NOx

SO2

NMVOCCO

CO2 CH4NH3

N2O

Particulate Matter

(PM2.5 / PM10)

Multi-Pollutant Multi-Effect Analysis

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SADB MDB

MERLIN Model Framework

Scenario-ToolScenarion development and data management

Emission Scenarios for future years, giving- Emissions by country and sector- Implementation degrees of measures- Changes in emissions relative to the base case by country and sector

OMEGA

Stock + Activities

MeasureData

Scenarios SADB*MDB*

Stock Activities

MeasureData

Ch

an

gin

g S

toc

k a

nd

Ac

tiv

ity

by

im

ple

me

nti

ng

me

as

ure

s

Optimisation

Optimal Strategies, including:- Emissions by country- Concentrations by gridcell- Abatement costs by country and sector- Avoided damage costs- ...

Modified databases

Databases compiled for 2000, 2010, 2020

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Reference Description EF1 EF2 .. EFn Costs Meta-Information

Measure-Database (MDB)

Reference Description Stock (S) Activity (A) EF1 EF2 .. EFn Meta-Information

Stock-Activity-Database (SADB)

unique ID

e = A * EFi

E = S * e

techn. measures(affecting EFs)

non-tech. measures(affecting S or A) Information on imple-

mentation, interdependencies, i.e. AND, OR, XOR, ...

EF = Emission FactorS = Stock (e.g. # of vehicles)A = Activity (e.g. km/yr)e = source emissionsE = source-group emissions

Costs of implementation(typically with reference to Stock or Activity)

Measure-Matrix-Approach

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State of Work

• Stock, activity data and emission factors for 2000 and the baseline scenario 2010 established and checked by comparing it with EMEP 2000 and the CAFE baseline 2010 and UNFCCC 2010 data

• About 1000 measures per country (= 25 000 measures) implemented, measure & cost data currently validated against literature and other projects, e.g. EGTEI, IIASA RAINS)

• A large number of model scenario runs have been carried out for testing & assessing the full model system, including different meteorological conditions based on source-receptor relationships for 1997, 2000, and other years to come

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Impact Assessment: Assessment of health impacts due to emissions in EU25 – for 2000 and 2010 baseline (estimates including local damages)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

EMEP 2000 EMEP 2010

Symptom days

asthma attack

minor RAD

resp. hosp. admission, total

cerebrovascular hosp. adm, total

chronic cough, children

Lower resp. symptoms, asthma_children

cough, asthma_children

Bronchodilator usage, asthma_children

Lower resp. symptoms, asthma_adults

cough, asthma_adults

Bronchodilator usage, asthma_adults

Restr. activity days, adults

chronic bronchitis, adults

congestive heart failure, above_65_yrs

YOLL

~175 bill. €

~123 bill. €

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Model results (1) : Ozone maps for a health-related strategy aiming at compliance with AOT60 (i.e. 0 ppb.h exceedance)

AOT40f

AOT40c

AOT60 for a health-oriented Ozone scenario

Total costs: 92 billion €, emission reduction 2.97 Mt of NOx, 2.51 Mt NMVOC

Exceedance of AOT 60: base case 2010: 64 %, resulting health impact scenario: 25% of grid cells

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Model results (2): PM2.5 and PM10

Analysis of a joint scenario to achieve compliance with AOT60, PM10/2.5 concentrations (threshold set to 10 g/m3) and Kyoto targets for GHG emissions (as CO2-equivalent) with regard to PM2.5 (above) and PM10 (below) impacts.(1997 meteorology, EU25++ countries)

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Model results (3): Case study road transport PM in Germany

• Investigating additional options to reduce PM10 from road transport sources until 2010, how far can M(T)FR be taken?

3 approaches (technical measures only; tech & “switch” measures; tech, switch and non-technical measures)

non-technical measures modeled based on activity changes (not driving, switching to public transport, long term responses excluded)

costs for non-technical measures derived from dead weight loss

assuming retrofitting of existing vehicle stock and new vehicles sold equipped with PM control equipment from 2006 on

• Some results:

total costs for Passenger Cars (diesel) 1.3 bill. €/a

7.1 Mill. PCdiesel in Germany projected by 2010

roughly 184 €/vehicle * year

total costs for TECH scenario about 3.8 bill. €/a

up to 17.9 bill. €/a for tech & switch & nontech

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Tech Tech & Switch Tech, Switch, Non-Tech

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000PM10 reduction %

Costs

Benefits


• Costs in Germany vs. benefits from reduced emissions of PM10, NOx and VOC in EU25• PM10 reduction on top of 2010 BAU ( 2010 CAFÉ Baseline) in the sector Road Transport• reduction in total PM10 emissions from 8.3% to 13.7%

mil

l. €

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• Resulting changes in primary PM concentrations for the three cases investigated

TECH

TECH & SWITCH

TECH & SWITCH & NONTECH

max 0.44g/m3

max 0.69g/m3

max 0.70 g/m3

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Model results (6): Case study road transport PM in Germany • Most efficient measures to reduce 10 kt from road transport sources in Germany?

Technology Name of MeasureHeavy duty vehicles pre EURO Diesel Oxidation Catalyst, base metal

Heavy duty vehicles EURO I DPX Catalyzed Particulate Filter

Heavy duty vehicles EURO II DPF PM sinter metal filter catalyst (open system)

Heavy duty vehicles EURO III DPF PM sinter metal filter catalyst (open system)

Urban Buses pre EURO Modern Diesel Oxidation Catalyst, precious metal

Urban Buses EURO I Modern Diesel Oxidation Catalyst, precious metal

Relative share of emissions reduced by vehicle technology and measure

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

PM2,5 PM10 VOC CO

Urban Buses, EURO I ModernDiesel Oxidation Catalyst, preciousmetal

Urban Buses, pre EURO ModernDiesel Oxidation Catalyst, preciousmetal

Heavy duty vehicles > 3,5 t, EURO IIIDPF PM sinter metal filter catalyst(open system)

Heavy duty vehicles > 3,5 t, EURO IIDPF PM sinter metal filter catalyst(open system)

Heavy duty vehicles > 3,5 t, EURO IDPX Catalyzed Particulate Filter

Heavy duty vehicles > 3,5 t, preEURO Diesel Oxidation Catalyst,base metal

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Model results (6): Case study road transport PM in Germany • Optimised for PM10 reduction !

Technology Name of MeasureHeavy duty vehicles pre EURO Diesel Oxidation Catalyst, base metal

Heavy duty vehicles EURO I DPX Catalyzed Particulate Filter

Heavy duty vehicles EURO II DPF PM sinter metal filter catalyst (open system)

Heavy duty vehicles EURO III DPF PM sinter metal filter catalyst (open system)

Urban Buses pre EURO Modern Diesel Oxidation Catalyst, precious metal

Urban Buses EURO I Modern Diesel Oxidation Catalyst, precious metal

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

Modern DieselOxidation

Catalyst, preciousmetal

DPF PM sintermetal filter

catalyst (opensystem)

DPF PM sintermetal filter

catalyst (opensystem)

Diesel OxidationCatalyst, base

metal

Modern DieselOxidation

Catalyst, preciousmetal

DPX Catalyzed Particulate Filter

Urban Buses,pre EURO

Heavy dutyvehicles > 3,5 t,

EURO III


EURO II


pre EURO

Urban Buses,EURO I


EURO I

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500€/tonne PM10

PM10 abated [kt]

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Conclusions & Outlook

main issues usually availability and access to data for stock, activities and measures; adding and improving input data will further improve the quality of results

main advantages of the measure-matrix approach and the GA optimisation are the scalability from individual measure assessment to sectoral to country/regional analysis, both for cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit assessment

detailed analyses of model results indicate complex interactions between measures in particular for stationary sources; integrating more

sophisticated ways to account for costs of early de-commissioning of equipment will improve the assessment of relative cost-effectiveness of measures further

extension to cover heavy metals, benzene and direct pollutant releasesinto water and soil is currently in progress, as well for non-CO2 GHGs

long-term plans include investigating parallelisation, web-accessability and dynamic modelling over longer time periods, allowing for improved assessment of indogeneous and exogeneous changes in stock, activities and measure implementation (e.g. duration of implementing)

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Contact:

Stefan Reis: [email protected]

http://www.merlin-project.info

http://www.ier.uni-stuttgart.de

Thank you for your attention!

TFEIP & ESPREME Workshop on Heavy Metals and POPsRovaniemi/Finland, Oct 18/19 2005

http://espreme.ier.uni-stuttgart.de/workshop

Project on Natural and Biogenic Emissions (NATAIR)http://natair.ier.uni-stuttgart.de

(funded by DG Research 5th FP)

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