ENVS 189—Intro. To Systems Thinking. 17 Practices of Systems Thinking 13.Thinking critically about causation, not just correlation Looking beyond basic.

ENVS 189—Intro. To Systems Thinking

17 Practices of Systems Thinking

13. Thinking critically about causation, not just correlation

Looking beyond basic connectedness to understand the dynamic relationship between the connected parts

14. Being cautious of adopting a win/lose attitude

Being skeptical of a ‘zero-sum game’ approach to individual goals within a highly interdependent system

15. Considering unintended consequences

Anticipating ancillary effects of actions over time

16. Seeing self as part of system under study

Understanding that one’s own behavior within the system, impacts the system

17. Recognizing that a system’s structure drives its behavior

Focusing on system structure and avoiding blaming others when things go wrong

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“Solutions” to a problem may actually make the problem worse

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Effective leverage points aren’t where you expect them to be

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There is a time delay between cause and effect. This prevents us from knowing how the immediate outcomes of our actions will effect us later.

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Systems respond slower (or faster) than we expect, which effects how we respond.

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Past experiences don’t always apply to solving future problems.

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The more that the parts of a problem come into focus, the more difficult it may be to

identify what the whole problem is.

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SYSTEM -- a collection of individual parts (people, policies, etc.) that work together as a whole.

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SYSTEMS THINKING

How we view and work with complex systems by looking for and understanding patterns of inter-relationships between the parts of the system.

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No numbers and computers

Systems thinking has nothing to do with numbers or computers

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THE BEST SYSTEMS THINKERS ARE:

• Intuitive (right brain dominant) people

• People exposed to Zen and other Eastern philosophies

• Mystery category

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Fixes that Backfire

Fixes that Backfire

Why is it that, in complex systems, the more we try to solve the problem, the worse the existing problem can become or even new problems are created?

My examples:–Bacterial Outbreak at Mass. General Hospital–Wells in Africa

Your examples-??

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The Policy Insensitivity Continuum

WORST BEST

Existing problems Improvement become worse and/or I is less thannew problems are anticipatedcreated

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Systems don’t behave the way we intend them to because they are insensitive to traditional ways we try to alter their behavior.

There are many reasons for this.

The first two involve leverage points: places in the system where a small change in one thing can produce big changes in everything.

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Leverage points--2

There are a few leverage points that will solve the problem. But they are hard to find because they are not where you would expect them to be.

We look for them in the symptom of the problem.

But, instead they are found in the underlying causes of the problem.

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Symptoms vs. Causes-1

Systems Thinking Helps You Uncover The Leverage Points in a Complex System.

It helps you discover the deep, underlying causes of a problem, not just the outward superficial systems.

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Symptoms:

• Shout-- display prominent results

• are short-term and compelling

• provide immediate gratification (political implications)

• demand “local” attention

Underlying causes:

• Whisper--display subtle results

• are long- term and persistent

• provide delayed gratification

• cut across departmental or agency boundaries

So why are we drawn to the symptoms, where there are no leverage points, rather than to its underlying behaviors, where there are leverage points?

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Unintended Consequences

When we treat the symptoms rather than the causes, we get:

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

Examples:Traffic on Shelburne RoadSki Bindings

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Shelburne Road in South Burlington becomes overly congested, so a decision is made to widen it.

After the construction, the congestion is initially relieved.

This is the short-term, quick fix solution

that treats the problem symptom

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Eventually, this low traffic flow makes the road attractive to new drivers who weren’t using the road before construction, so the congestion becomes worse than ever.

This is the long-term unintended consequence

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Ineffective policies-1

Why Policies Don’t Give the Results You Want

1. The system gets in the way: the harder you push, the harder the system pushes back

2. We are drawn to the very symptom points where intervening will fail.

3. There are a few sensitive influence points that where you can exert leverage to solve the problem, but they are not where you are expecting them to be.

4. Cause and effect are not closely related in time and space.

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5. The more that a problem comes into focus, the fuzzier it appears.

6. Past experiences may not apply.

7. Outcomes may first improve before they get worse, or first get worse before they improve.

8. The system can change in slow and imperceptible ways.

Why Policies Don’t Give You the Results You Want(continued)

Ineffective policies-2

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Conclusions:

• Complex systems are inherently uncontrollable

• They cannot be understood sufficiently even while they are unfolding

• So prediction and control of complex systems is very hard, if not impossible, to do

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Benefits of Learning Systems Thinking:

• Systems Thinking will help you better understand how complex systems behave.

• This will help you immensely in your own personal life, in your other courses, and how you see the world.

• You already know everything you need to know factually…it’s just rearranging the information.

17 Practices of Systems Thinking

1. Considering both short and long term consequences of one’s actions

Looking ahead and anticipating not only the immediate results of actions, but also the effects down the road

2. Looking at multiple perspectives of an issue

Changing perspective to see other points of view within a system

3. Looking at the ‘big picture’

Focusing on the overall ‘forest’ as opposed to the details of any one ‘tree’

4. Looking for patterns in data

Reviewing information with an eye towards patterns or themes

5. Looking for trends over time

Viewing changes over time as part of the natural dynamics of the system

6. Being comfortable with ambiguity

Holding the tension of paradox and ambiguity; taking the time necessary to understand the dynamics of a system before taking action

17 Practices of Systems Thinking

7. Checking results and changing actions if needed.

Assessing for improvement using benchmarks; seeing errors as a means to learning and adjustment

8. Looking for interconnected issues

Perceiving connections between multiple issues/parts within a system

9. Looking for small actions that can make big differences

Using systems understanding to determine what small actions could produce high leverage results

10. Considering the impacts of accumulations over time

Paying attention to things that build up (or deplete) slowly over time—both concrete (‘money in a bank account’) or abstract (‘trust within a relationship’) 

11. Being comfortable with questioning one’s deep assumptions

Understanding that one’s beliefs of how the world works (mental models) may limit one’s thinking.

12. Being aware of boundaries

Understanding that boundaries are arbitrary; checking for consistency of understanding about where a particular boundary is drawn.

17 Practices of Systems Thinking

13. Thinking critically about causation, not just correlation

Looking beyond basic connectedness to understand the dynamic relationship between the connected parts

14. Being cautious of adopting a win/lose attitude

Being skeptical of a ‘zero-sum game’ approach to individual goals within a highly interdependent system

15. Considering unintended consequences

Anticipating ancillary effects of actions over time

16. Seeing self as part of system under study

Understanding that one’s own behavior within the system, impacts the system

17. Recognizing that a system’s structure drives its behavior

Focusing on system structure and avoiding blaming others when things go wrong

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“ If you don’t know where you’re going,

when you get there,

it may not be

where you wanna be.”

Casey Stengel

Former Manager

NY Yankees