Systems Thinking Lab 11. Overview What is a system? What is systems thinking? Mechanistic thinking vs. Systems thinking How to use a Causal Loop diagram.

Systems Thinking

Lab 11

Overview• What is a system?• What is systems thinking?• Mechanistic thinking vs. Systems thinking• How to use a Causal Loop diagram : Balancing loop and reinforcing loop• Case Study: Garbage Sanitation system in NY

as an Example• In class activity 1) two students Activity: 10 min 2) four students Activity: 20 min - Make a 5 min presentation: 30 min 3) Large Group Activity: 30 min

What is a System?

“An interconnected set of elements that is coherently organized around some purpose”

-Dana Meadows

What is Systems Thinking

"A discipline for seeing wholes...a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns rather than static snapshots" 

-Peter Senge

• A perspective on reality

• A set of tools

• A new vocabulary

A perspective on reality…

Mechanistic Thinking

Parts

Objects

Events

Isolation

Specificity

Simplicity

Systemic Thinking

Wholes

Relationships

Structures

Interdependence

Generality

Complexity

Linear Thinking• “Laundry list”

approach• Assumption: each

activity operates independently

• Effective for many problems

• Relationships between activities are often overlooked in getting things done

Customer Satisfaction

Appealing Retail Environment

High Employee Morale

Delivery of Product Value

Good Customer Targeting

Customer Satisfaction

Appealing Retail Environment

High Employee Morale

Delivery of Product Value

Good Customer Targeting

Systems Thinking• Interactions

between activities give insight into real world complexity

• The interactions between the activities are as important as the activities themselves

Customer Satisfaction

Appealing Retail Environment

Delivery of Product Value

High Employee Morale

Good Customer Targeting

Customer Satisfaction

Appealing Retail Environment

Delivery of Product Value

High Employee Morale

Good Customer Targeting

Reinforcing

• Metaphors– Spiraling into

oblivion– We’re on a roll– On the way up– Snowballing out of

control

• Examples– Cancer– Team Morale– Bank Debts– Panic Attacks– Savings account

interestBIRTHS

PERYEAR

POPULATIONS

S

(R)

Balancing• Mechanical Systems

– Air Conditioning

• Human– Hunger– Body Temperature

• Ecological– Predator/ Prey

OPENING OFWARM WATER

FAUCET

SHOWERTEMPERATURE

S

S

(B)

DESIREDSHOWER

TEMPERATURE

O

POPULATION

CAUSAL DIAGRAMMING - NOTATION

YEARLYBIRTHS

YEARLYDEATHS

os

s

R

Population growth

B

Population decline

BIRTH RATE

s

LIFE EXPECTANCY

s

Add units of measure if this clarifies!

o

B CA

E

D

F

Moves you from this perspective:

To this:

A B

BA

E

F

CBA

E

F

SYSTEMS THINKING IN PRACTICE

System Thinking Tool: Causal Loop Diagrams

• Components of tool– Describe links

between large number of variables

– + or s = moves in same direction

– - or o = moves in opposite direction

• Types of Loops– Reinforcing– Balancing

Number of people in a city (P)

(C) Migration into a city

(M) Modernization

(G) Amount of

garbage per area

(B) Bacteria per person

(D) Number of diseases

(S) Sanitation facilities

S

SS

S +

SS

+

S+

O

O

O_

Two Types of Causal Loop Diagrams

• REINFORCING• POSITIVE• EVEN NUMBER of

or Zero NEGATIVE OR OPPOSITE LINKS

• BALANCING• NEGATIVE• ODD NUMBER OF

NEGATIVE OR OPPOSITE LINKS

Reinforcing loop –reinforces change with even more change; leads to exponential growth or decline

# P

EO

PLE

TIME

Two Types of Causal Loop Diagrams

• REINFORCING• POSITIVE• EVEN NUMBER of

or Zero NEGATIVE OR OPPOSITE LINKS

• BALANCING• NEGATIVE• ODD NUMBER OF

NEGATIVE OR OPPOSITE LINKS

Balancing loop – pushes level up or down to reach a goal (i.e., carrying capacity).

# P

EO

PLE

Number of people in a city (P)

(C) Migration into a city

(M) Modernization

(G) Amount of garbage per area

(B) Bacteria per person

(D) Number of diseases

(S) Sanitation facilities

S

SS

S

SS

S

O

O

O

Number of people in a city (P)

(C) Migration into a city

(M) Modernization

(G) Amount of garbage per area

(B) Bacteria per person

(D) Number of diseases

(S) Sanitation facilities

S

SS

S

SS

S

O

O

O

Number of people in a city (P)

(C) Migration into a city

(M) Modernization

(G) Amount of garbage per area

(B) Bacteria per person

(D) Number of diseases

(S) Sanitation facilities

S

SS

S

SS

S

O

O

Number of people in a city (P)

(C) Migration into a city

(M) Modernization

(G) Amount of garbage per area

(B) Bacteria per person

(D) Number of diseases

(S) Sanitation facilities

S

SS

S

SS

S

O

O

O

R

R

R

B

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

Systems Thinking in Practice

”Long term view” means to remember the long term consequences

”System view” means to remember the feedback effects

”Holistic view” means to (try) to remember all effects

All 3 are useful, because they reduce the number of surprises

COMPANY ETHICS

COMPANY COST

COMPANY ADVANTAGE

COMPANYREPUTATION

S

S

S

0

Long Term View- Delays

COMPANY ETHICS

COMPANY REPUTATION

COMPANY ADVANTAGE

COMPETITOR’S FRUSTRATION

COMPETITOR’SETHICS

COMPETITOR’SREPUTATION

S S

S

S

S

0(B)

System View- Feedback

COMPANY ETHICS

COMPANY REPUTATION

COMPANY ADVANTAGE

COMPETITOR’S FRUSTRATION

COMPETITOR’SETHICS

COMPETITOR’SREPUTATION

S S

S

S

S

0

EMPLOYEESATISFACTION

COMPANY HIRING COSTS

WORKERPRODUCTIVITY

……AND SO ON

COMPANYCOSTS

(B)

S

S

OS

O

O

S(R)

Holistic View- All Effects

Your Task

• Team up in pairs and create two causal loops of 4 meatballs from the article Linking Population, Women and Biodiversity. Make sure that one loop is reinforcing and one is a balancing loop.

• Attribute + and - to the links and record your reasoning.

• Get together with another pair and explain loops to each other; decide on one reinforcing and one balancing loop and draw it on an overhead, large paper or chalkboard.

• Each group of four will present their two loops to the class.

Migration to a Hotspot

Urbanization

Poverty

GenderEquity

Migration to a City

Population

Deforestation Urban sprawl

Biodiversity

Transmitted Disease

Education

InternationalTrade

SustainableUse of

Natural Resources

AccessibilityTo familyplanning

Policy innovation and new programmatic

approaches

Female EconomicAnd political

power

PovertyIn the

rural area

Migration into a city

Urbanization

+

+

-

Urbansprawl

+

GenderEquity

Population

Unsustainable Use of Local

Natural Resources

+Biodiversity

-

Disease

- -

Deforestation and

fragmentation

+

-

+

Education

-

+

Sound Management

of Natural Resources

+

Ecological or Environmenta

lHealth

+

New Policies and

programmatic approaches

Accessibility to Family

service

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

Migration into a

hotspot

-

InternationalTrade