DWS15 - Future Networks Forum - Welcome to Gigabit Era - Valerie Chaillou - IDATE

Welcome to the Gigabit era?

IDATE Insight

18 November 2015

Future Networks Forum

Valérie CHAILLOU

Director of studies & Co-Head of FTTx practice,

IDATE

Breakdown of FTTx architectures per region, December 2014

Geographical panorama of FTTx access solutions

World = 265.3 million subscribers

Source: IDATE, World FTTx market

2

45%

28%

25%North America: 76.2 million subscribers

Europe: 61.5 million subscribers

Asia-Pacific: 119.7 million subscribers

Africa-Middle East: 3.2 million subscribersLatin America: 3.7 million subscribers

3

Source: IDATE, World FTTx market

Breakdown of Superfast broadband technologies

Geographical breakdown of the three main superfast broadband architectures, in December 2014

VDSL, 29.5 million subscribers

Europe 43%

North America 49%Asia-Pacific 1%

FTTH/B, 163.2 million subscribers

Europe 18%

North America 8%Asia-Pacific 71%

FTTx/D3.0, 72.7 million subscribers

Europe 26%

North America 68%Asia-Pacific 5%

3

FTTH/B62%VDSL

11%

FTTx/D3.0

27%

Weight of the fixed technologies at

end 2014 (in % of subscribers)

<

LTE share

50%LTE share 63%

LTE share 41%

LTE share 38%

LTE share 20%LTE share 4%

Russia = 10.5 million

Germany = 13.0 million

South Korea = 36.0 million

Japan = 61.9 million

Australia = 11.9 million

Main LTE markets

4

LTE mobile subscriptions, December 2014

UK = 17.5 million

France = 11.0 million

LTE share 14%

LTE share 11%

Source: IDATE, in State of LTE & MBB spectrum worldwide, July 2015

USA = 179.3 million

China = 97.3 million

Spain= 6.9 million

LTE share 13%

Brazil= 6.8 million

LTE share 2%

LTE share 8%

Several fixed access technologies can theoretically provide users

with a 1 Gbps connection: FTTH, Docsis 3.1 and G.Fast

Gigabit wireline access technologies

5

Optical fibre: selling 1 Gbps plans is more a marketing than a technical choice

FTTH P2P architecture FTTH GPON architecture

Source: IDATE, The Gigabit Race, September 2015 Source: IDATE, The Gigabit Race, September 2015

Gigabit wireline access technologies

6

FTTx/Docsis 3.1: Docsis 3.1 will open up new

prospects for cable companies

FTTx/Docsis 3.1 architecture

G.fast: last chance for legacy copper networks?

G.Fast architecture

Source: IDATE, The Gigabit Race, September 2015

USA

How 1 Gbps plans are evolving

7

Providing Gigabit access has

become a goal in itself. The

momentum has been largely

influenced by Google’s initiatives,

since followed by private sector

operators and especially a number of

cities.

At the federal level, the Government

and the FCC have announced new

measures in support of city-led

rollouts.

Europe

The Digital Agenda (DAE) sets

Europe’s connectivity targets: 30

Mbps for all, and 100 Mbps connections

or more for at least 50% of European

households by 2020.

These appear very modest targets

when compared to current technological

possibilities, and the accelerated pace

of the Gigabit race, which more and

more ISPs seem willing to join.

Elsewhere

around the world

In Asia, selling Gigabit-speed access

is a strategic choice for private sector

operators. Government-led initiatives

are more rare, with the exception of

Singapore and New Zealand.

In Latin America and the Middle East,

just providing the entire population

with broadband access is already a

challenge, so Gigabit access is not

really on the table as yet. But a few ISPs

do offer ultra-fast plans, aimed at a very

specific clientele.

Disparate regional strategies

8

The combined roles of Gigabit access stakeholders in the United States

The Asian approach to UFB/Gigabit access The European approach to UFB/Gigabit access

Source: IDATE, The Gigabit Race, September 2015

Status of 1 Gbps plans around the world

9

Where are 1 Gbps plans available?

Source: IDATE, The Gigabit Race, September 2015

Strong initiative from local authorities in support of Gb access

Availability of 1 Gbps plansNew Zealand

Canada

USA

Caribbean

Portugal

Latvia

FranceSwiterland

Turkey

Ukraine

China

South Korea

JapanHong Kong

Singapore

Remaining questions

10

• What is the most appropriate solution to deploy considering thelocal/national context (geography, demography, market trends, existinginfrastructures…)?

• What is the good combination between private and public investment toensure the largest coverage and reduce the risk for a “gigabit divide” in acountry and between regions?

• What those Gigabit networks will be used for?

• And so many others you might have…?