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The Evolvement of Pension Management:

Searching for opportunities in alternative investment

December 13, 2006

Even Chen

Institutional & Segregated Fund Business

JPMorgan Asset Management ,Taiwan

2

Agenda

Basic observations of pension management

Pension surveys & trends

– New sources of return

– U.S.pension reforms and challenges for plan sponsors

The benefits of alternative investment in portfolio management

3

How did U.S DB pension plans lose so much ground?

Historical analysis of asset/liability performance for hypothetical plan

4

81% of U.S. Top 200 corporate pension plans with an underfunded status ending 2005

Median funded ratio:86% - remains at 2004 levels

There is a significant difference in return on assets between top and bottom performers

5

Easy money is a thing of the past

The good old days in global investment sphere

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

Source: JPMorgan Asset Management; MSCI World Index 1975~2004

Increasing volatility in S&P 500 return distributions

0%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Jun-03Oct-99Oct-97

return

frequency

Source: JPMorgan Asset Management Estimates: S&P 500 distribution of 10 year trailing returns using monthly data

year

return

6

Pensions all over the world reveal a strong home bias

Investors all over the world reveal a strong home bias

Domestic equities as a share of total equity allocation and as total world market capitalization in select markets

1% 1%

53%55%

33%

74%

HK Nordics US

Share in market cap

Share in portfolio

Source: MSCI, JPMorgan Asset Management. The chart shows the percentage of each market as represented in the MSCI World index (December 2004), and as a percentage of the equity portion in average pension portfolios. Shown for illustrative purposes only.

7

But domestic equity has underperformed and volatility is much higher

Cumulative return of Taiwan equity vs. Global equity 1991 = 100

Source: MSCI, Ibbotson, JPMorgan Asset Management. The chart the cumulative return for S&P/IFC Taiwan TR index, S&P 500, MSCI Europe and S&P/IFC Emerging Market Index . Shown for illustrative purposes only.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Domestic TW equity

EME

US

Europe

MarketsHistorical volatility

Taiwan 34%

US 14%

Europe 15%

Asia ex. JP 20%

8

Relaxing constraints on international equities leads to better portfolios

Efficient frontiers with different limits on international assets

Risk

Ret

urn

Unconstrained

Max 50%

Max 10%

Zero

Source: JPMorgan Asset Management based on proprietary optimization model using long-term expected return assumptions, historical volatility and correlations. Shown for illustrative purposes only.

Domestic expected to outperform

Domestic expected to

underperform

Typical allocation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-2.50% -1.50% -0.50% 0.50% 1.50% 2.50% 3.50%

Expected return of domestic vs. international

All

oca

tio

n t

o d

om

esti

c

What return premium would justify a high concentration in domestic?

9

The correlations are the key to the success of diversification

Correlation with Taiwan equity index 1990-2004

Source: MSCI, Ibbotson, JPMorgan Asset Management. The chart shows the 3-year rolling correlation for S&P/IFC Taiwan TR index, with S&P 500, MSCI Europe and S&P/IFC Emerging markets Index. Shown for illustrative purposes only.

US

Europe

EME

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Performance of different equity portfolios during select global equity bear markets

-27%

-45%

-22%

-41%

-14%

-35%

-12%

-33%

-50%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

1997 - 99 2000 - 01

100% domestic85% domestic65% domestic55% domestic

10

The world has become “one market”

11

A more diversified portfolio with non- traditional assets would have held up better

Performance of different asset classes during 00 - 02

Source: MSCI, Ibbotson, JPMorgan Asset Management. The chart shows the annualized compound return for S&P/IFC Taiwan TR index, S&P 500, MSCI Europe and S&P/IFC Emerging markets index during the period March 2000 – December 2002. Shown for illustrative purposes only.

Real estate

Inflation bonds

Long duration

Commodities

EMD

Global equity

TW equity

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Historical risk

His

toric

al r

etu

rn

Performance of different portfolios during 00 - 02

-16%

-4%

-1%

-18%

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

His

tori

cal r

etur

nGlobal equity Equity / bond

portfolio

Diversified portfolio

Source: MSCI, Ibbotson, JPMorgan Asset Management. The chart shows the annualized compound return for MSCI World equity, a balanced 50% equity / 50% global bond portfolio, and a diversified portfolio consisting of 10% DJAIG TR commodity index, 10% JPMEBI Emerging markets debt index, 10% US Inflation –linked bonds, 20% Lehman Brothers Long government / credit index, 15% US Large cap S&P 500 index, 15% MSCI EAFE index, 10% S&P/IFC Taiwan TR equity index, 10% Direct real estate NPPITR index during the period March 2000 – December 2002. Shown for illustrative purposes only.

12

Agenda






13

There are pronounced differences in the average portfolio allocations

for U.S. and Europe pensions

Europe favours a more conservative mix while U.S has greater concentration in domestic assets

14

U.S. is more inclined to routinely rebalance asset allocation while Europe appears more willing to actively shift away from their strategic allocations

15

There is also pronounced differences in return expectations and benchmarks for measuring

U.S. has higher return expectation than Europe

Differences in how success is measured

16

Utilizing broader range of assets and more active management styleShow great willingness to use alternative asset classes / strategies to enhance returns

Trends in embracing active equity investment management

17

Hiring innovative strategies and tools - Europe is more likely to use absolute return while U.S. prefers portable alpha relatively

Showing a divergence in using innovative strategies between Europe and U.S.

Derivative is popular tool hired to enhance portfolio performance

Leverage is less popular tool taken to boost returns

18

Agenda






19

Higher funding target to be required

20

Yield curve for discounting liabilities

*Assuming an upward-sloping yield curve

21

Overview of possible accounting changes

22

Responding to the challenges

Different rules and concerns lead to different strategies used to enhance performance

Source:JPMorgan Pension Survey December 2006

Innovative solutions

23

Agenda






– Hedge Fund

– Real Estate

– Private Equity

– Currency Overlay

24

Alternatives have become popular assets for pension plans

Investment in alternative asset classes for U.S. pension plans

Source:JPMorgan Pension Survey December 2006

25

Why alternatives?

Strong outperformance over past decade The alternative world – $3 trillion in assets

26

Alternative asset return assumptions in 2008

Source: JPMAM Estimates ;US dollar-based assumptions; compound (IRR) 10-15 years returns

27

Agenda






– Hedge Fund

– Real Estate

– Private Equity


28

Source: HFRI

More money from institutions contributes to an unprecedented growth of hedge fund assets

0100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,300

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006YTD

8,987Funds

Estimated growth of hedge fund assets (1990 to June 2006)Assets in billions

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Year

Inst

itu

tio

nal

Per

cen

tag

e o

fT

ota

l H

edg

e F

un

d N

et F

low

s

Institutional share of total Hedge Fund capital flows

Assets within the hedge fund industry have grown at an unprecedented rate throughout the last decade

Source: Casey, Quirk & Acito and The Bank of New York analysis

29

Benefits of allocating to hedge funds in a diversified portfolio

1 Measure of risk adjusted return. The risk-free rate is the U.S. 3-Month T-Bill rate annualized over the period.

2 Maximum drawdown is the largest percentage drawdown during the period

3 Hedge Fund Research (HFR) is a widely used industry benchmark, although the exact composition of these indices remains proprietary.

Hedge funds have higher risk-adjusted returns with low correlation compared to traditional asset classes

July 1996 through June 2006

S&P 500MSCI World -

Local

J.P. Morgan Global Bond -

Local

Lehman Aggregate Bond

Hedge Fund Research (HFR) Fund Weighted

Index3

Return 8.32% 6.92% 6.55% 6.22% 10.64%

Standard Deviation 15.66% 14.55% 3.01% 3.63% 7.43%

Sharpe Ratio1 0.30 0.23 0.97 0.71 0.94

Correlation with HFR Fund Weighted Index 0.72 0.77 -0.13 -0.05 1.00

Maximum Drawdown2 -44.71% -46.80% -8.14% -3.55% -11.42%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15%

Annualized Standard Deviation (Volatility)

An

nu

alize

d R

etu

rn

Risk and Return of Stocks, Bonds and Hedge Funds: 1990 - 2005

100% Lehman Govt./Corp. Bond

100% Hedge Fund Composite1

100% S&P 500

50% S&P 500 and 50% Lehman Govt./Corp. Bond

Source: PerTrac. Hedge Fund Composite represented by HFRI Weighted Composite (net of manager fees)

Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Indices are shown for illustrative purposes. Indices are not available for investment by the public nor are fees and expenses charged by indices. This is not intended and should not be interpreted as the performance of an actual investment.

30

More institutions are investing but aggregate allocations remain small

Percentage of Institutional Investors Using Hedge Funds

2003 2004

U.S. 23% 28%

Europe 23% 32%

Japan 18% 40%

Source: Greenwich Associates (December, 2004)*Continental Europe

2.0%1.0%0.4%Japan

1.0%1.0%1.0%Continental Europe

0.6%

1.6%

1.6%

2004

0.2%

1.2%

1.3%

20032002

0.1%United Kingdom

0.9%Canada

1.0%U.S.

Hedge Fund Allocation as a Percentage of Total Institutional Assets

Percentage of Institutional Investors Using Hedge Funds

Source: Greenwich Associates, Demand & Hiring for Hedge Funds 2001-2005

15% 20% 23% 28% 28%

0

50

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

31

Agenda






– Hedge Fund

– Real Estate

– Private Equity


32

European pension funds place significantly more faith in property than other regions of the world

Europe pension fund allocations to real estate by country ended 2002

33

There is a better diversification impact of investing in property than in international equities

Private property correlations 1995-2004 U.S. correlations with foreign markets 1996-2005

Source:GPR,MSCI,JPMorganSource:IPD,JPMorgan

34

Domestic

Other

Domestic

Other

Sources: Company filings, JPMorgan

Typical non-Real Estate International Company

Cross-border correlations within Real Estate Companies kept down by staying local

Domestic

Other

Domestic

Other

Typical Real Estate Company

Sources: Company filings, JPMorgan

Revenue shares for Real Estate and non-Real Estate companies

35

Sources of revenues for Top 10 broad market and real estate firms

Source:Company filings,JPMorgan Source:Company filings,JPMorgan

Top 10 broad market firms Top 10 real estate firms

36

70% stocks

30% bonds

Adding REITs to global portfolios produces better risk/return profile

Global Stocks and Bonds

Ten years through September 30, 2006

Return: 5.91%Risk: 10.39%

Sharpe ratio: 0.22

Return: 6.55%Risk: 9.83%

Sharpe ratio: 0.30

Annualized Return 11.81% 5.72% 5.43%

Standard Deviation 13.45% 14.51% 6.53%

RES Equity Fixed IncomeTen years through September 30, 2006

10% RES

60% stocks

30% bonds

With 10% Global Real Estate Securities

Source: Ibbotson, GPR, MSCI,J.P. Morgan Investment Management

The following indices were used as proxies for the respective asset classes: Global Real Estate Securities (GPR 250 Index), Equity (MSCI World), Fixed Income (JPM Government Bond Index Global).

37

Agenda






– Hedge Fund

– Real Estate

– Private Equity


38

Buyout is mainstream market in P.E

Distributions by US private equity funds (1990-09/30/2003)

Annual percent net change in portfolio valuations US venture and buyout formed 1992-2003

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

Buyouts

Venture

Distribution $mn

Database Source: VentureXpert database from Thomson Venture Economics

Investment Data Source: The MoneyTree Survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers/Thomson Venture Economics/NVCA

All other data Source: Thomson Venture Economics

-50

0

50

100

150

200

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year

Pe

rce

nt

Venture Buyouts

39

Emerging markets potentially have room to grow

Geographic breakdown in 2005 P.E as a percentage of GDP

Data Source: Private Equity Intelligence

40

P.E with a stable performance compared to global equity

P.E versus MSCI 1994-2005


300% return in 10 years

41

The trend of “Mega” will dominate the P.E market

Raised AUM in buyout from 2004 to 2006 The bigger AUM, the better performance


42

Beta and Alpha in P.E

P.E as a beta market versus public equity (S&P500) ; 5-years rolling annualized total return since 1986

Data Source: JPMorgan,Datastream,LPX,Cambridge Associates

43

Agenda






– Hedge Fund

– Real Estate

– Private Equity


44

The diversification going into global assets generates currency risk

45

Unhedged currency exposure has significant volatility6.

3%

-3.0

%

-5.2

%

8.7%

4.6% 5.9%

-2.3

%

15.1

%

2.0%

-6.1

%

1.5% 2.2% 3.7% 5.1%

-4.3

%

-2.3

%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Ann

ual P

erfo

rman

ce

MSCI World Local Return Currency Return Return to TWD Investor

Source: JPMorgan Asset Management, MSCI, Bloomberg

Annual returns of MSCI World to Taiwanese Investor

… Currency can have meaningful returns in international investing

46

How to hedge? Active,or passive,or “do nothing”

47

Perfect overlay versus actual overlay

Quarterly currency performance with perfect overlay Quarterly currency performance with actual overlay

48

Optimal hedge ratio varies by international exposures

Source: JPMAM

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

International Allocation

Opt

imal

Hed

ge R

atio

49

Adding value through active currency overlay management

50

Annualized hedging return for unhedged composite of JPMAM clients

The benefits of currency overlay management

* Unhedged results: Equal weighted composite of JPMorgan Asset Management's managed currency returns for MSCI World ex US, unhedged USD based portfolios from 1st September 1992 to 30 June 2005, currency return as measured by JPMorgan Asset Management. The results are gross of fees.

Source: JPMorgan Asset Management

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5

Portfolio risk (%)

Currency OverlayHedging Return

Unhedged Currency

Portfolio currency return (%) Industry JPMAM All account information ratio 0.55

0.79

All account excess return 1.06%

1.42%

All account tracking error 2.25%

1.79%

Cumulative success ratio 75%

92%* JPMAM = 48 accounts, Industry = 241 accountsSource: Frank Russell, JPMAM Survey sample: 1989-2000

Frank Russell Survey for currency overlay

51

Appendix

52

The summary of U.S. pension reforms and implications

53

A hedge fund bubble has yet to be seen

54

Property securities market correlation minus broad stock market correlation 1996-2005

Source:GPR,MSCI,JPMorgan

55

LPX – Private Equity Index

Top 10 companies in LPX Major Market

Data Source: Newsletter LPX Major Market (30 June, 2006)

56

Searching for the optimal hedging ratio and foreign exposures

Sharpe ratios using different combinations of hedging and foreign exposure

57

The commingled trust funds are collective investment funds maintained by JPMorgan Chase Bank. Only qualified employee benefit trust and governmental plans that have appointed JPMorgan Chase Bank as fiduciary are permitted to invest in the fund. JPMorgan Asset Management advises JPMorgan Chase Bank regarding the management of the funds. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Net returns are based on the highest applicable fee rate for this strategy.

This document is intended solely to report on various investment views held by JPMorgan Asset Management. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations. Indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual investment. The information contained herein employs proprietary projections of expected returns as well as estimates of their future volatility. The relative relationships and forecasts contained herein are based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical data and capital markets theory. These estimates have certain inherent limitations, and unlike an actual performance record, they do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees or other costs. References to future net returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. The forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.

The value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate and your investment is not guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note current performance may be higher or lower than the performance data shown. Please note that investments in foreign markets are subject to special currency, political, and economic risks. Exchange rates may cause the value of underlying overseas investments to go down or up. Investments in emerging markets may be more volatile than other markets and the risk to your capital is therefore greater. Also, the economic and political situations may be more volatile than in established economies and these may adversely influence the value of investments made.

Performance results are gross of investment management fees. The deduction of an advisory fee reduces an investor’s return. Actual account performance will vary depending on individual portfolio security selection and the applicable fee schedule. Fees are available upon request.

The following is an example of the effect of compounded advisory fees over a period of time on the value of a client’s portfolio: A portfolio with a beginning value of $100 million, gaining an annual return of 10% per annum would grow to $259 million after 10 years, assuming no fees have been paid out. Conversely, a portfolio with a beginning value of $100 million, gaining an annual return of 10% per annum, but paying a fee of 1% per annum, would only grow to $235 million after 10 years. The annualized returns over the 10 year time period are 10.00% (gross of fees) and 8.91% (net of fees). If the fee in the above example was 0.25% per annum, the portfolio would grow to $253 million after 10 years and return 9.73% net of fees. The fees were calculated on a monthly basis, which shows the maximum effect of compounding.

Illustration showing impact of investment management fees: An investment of USD $1,000,000 under the management of JPMAM achieves a 10% compounded gross annual return for 10 years. If a management fee of 0.75% of average assets under management were charged per year for the 10-year period, the annual return would be 9.25% and the value of assets would be USD $2,422,225 net of fees, compared with USD $2,593,742 gross of fees. Therefore, the investment management fee, and any other expenses incurred in the management of the portfolio, will reduce the client’s return.

All case studies are shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. They are based on current market conditions that constitute our judgment and are subject to change. Results shown are not meant to be representative of actual investment results. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of the likely future performance of an investment.

Any securities mentioned throughout the presentation are shown for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as recommendations to buy or sell. A full list of firm recommendations for the past year are available upon request.

JPMorgan Asset Management is the marketing name for the asset management businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co and its affiliates worldwide.

Copyright © 2005 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

JPMorgan Asset Management

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