Climate Science, Climate Policy and Montana Tom Fiddaman 5/20/2010.

Climate Science, Climate Policyand Montana

Tom Fiddaman5/20/2010

Accumulation of Greenhouse Gases

Rates of change in natural and anthropogenicradiative forcing over the past 20,000 yearsFortunat Joos and Renato SpahniPNAS, vol. 105 no. 5

GHGEmissions

NetRemoval

GHGs in AtmosphereGHGs in Atmosphere

Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)

Courtesy of John Sterman, MIT

Copyright © 2010 Ventana Systems, Inc. Ventana is a registered trademark and a registered service mark of Ventana Systems, Inc.4

CO2 Emissions & ConcentrationEmissions

8

4

0

1750 1880 2010Time (year)

GtC

/yea

r

Fossil Fuels Land Use

CO2 Concentration

400

300

200

1800 1905 2010Time (year)

ppm

Law Dome Ice Core Mauna Loa

Emissions

AtmosphericConcentration

Millennial Temperature Reconstructions

M. N. Juckes, M. R. Allen, K. R. Briffa, J. Esper, G. C. Hegerl, A. Moberg, T. J. Osborn, and S. L.WeberMillennial temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluationClim. Past, 3, 591–609, 2007 www.clim-past.net/3/591/2007/

Light fromthe sun

Infraredradiationto space

Heat in Earth SystemHeat in Earth System

Atmospheric Temperature

Courtesy of John Sterman, MIT


Global Surface Temperature

NASA/GISS – GISTEMP global land/ocean temperature, retrieved 4/5/2010.

Fid

better colorshow projectionsget rid of short term


Montana Temperatures

Pederson et al. (2010) A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: what do temperature trends portend? Climatic Change 98:133-154

Sea LevelSea Level Data

40

-70

-180

-290

-400

1700 1731 1762 1793 1824 1855 1886 1917 1948 1979 2010Time (Year)

mm

Tide Gauges Satellites

Fid

source

GlaciersBoulder Glacier, Glacier NP

Source: USGS Repeat Photography Project, http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/repeatphoto/boulder-cp.htm

1910

2007

Arctic Sea Ice

National Snow & Ice Data Center, retrieved 4/7/2010 from http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/

Disappearing ArcticSea Ice

Source: NASA http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003464/index.html, courtesy of John Sterman, MIT

Sept 1979

Sept 2007


Wildfire Incidence Growing

Science 18 August 2006 313: 927-928


Ice Sheets

Sea Level

GHGs in Atmosphere

Biosphere & Ocean

Uptake Release

EmissionsHeat inSurface

Heat inOcean

Sunlight Infrared

HeatXfer

Water Vapor

Clouds

Precipitation

Aerosols

Temperature

Ocean Acidity

Fid

Acidification

Fid

precipitation

16

The FutureIPCC AR4 Temperature Projections


Sea Level Rise Projections

Vermeer & Rahmstorf (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature PNAS vol. 106 no. 51 Dec 22 2009

+4 ½ feet

Climate Weirding

Fig. 3. ... pool of potential analogs is restricted to gridpoints within 500km of each target gridpointJohn W. Williams, Stephen T. Jackson, and John E. Kutzbach. Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. PNAS, vol. 104 no. 14

Disappearing Climates with High Emissions (SRES A2)

Difficulty assessing proposals

“...delegates [in Bonn] complained that their heads were spinning as they were trying to understand the science and assumptions underlying the increasing number of proposals tabled for Annex I countries’ emission reduction ranges.”

http://www.iisd.ca/vol12/enb12403e.html

“They all seem to use different base years and assumptions…: how can we make any sense of them?”


Current Confirmed Proposals

Country 2020 2050 Other

Australia 5% below 2000 60% below 2000

20% renewable energy by 2020

Brazil 36% below business-as-usual

Amazon deforestation 70% below 2009 by 2017

China Carbon intensity 45% below 2005

Increase forest coverage 40M Ha by 2020

EU 20% below 1990

80% below 1990

Russia 20% below 1990

50% below 1990

US 17% below 2005Compiled by Climate Interactive, Feb. 2 2010 release, http://climateinteractive.org/scoreboard/scoreboard-science-and-data

and so on ...

Policymaker Mental Models

“Currently, in the UNFCCC negotiation process, the concrete environmental consequences of the various positions are not clear to all of us. There is a dangerous void of understanding of the short and long term impacts of the espoused …unwillingness to act on behalf of the Parties.”

– Christiana Figueres, UNFCCC negotiator for Costa Rica


(model demo)

CO2 Fossil Fuel Emissions

150

120

90

60

30

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (year)

Gto

nsC

O2/

year

USEUChina

IndiaOther DevelopedOther Developing

Temperature Sensitivity

8

6

4

2

0

2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075 2090Time (year)

Deg

rees

C

Temperature change from preindustrial["2C"] : REFTemperature change from preindustrial[Deterministic] : REFTemperature change from preindustrial["4.5C"] : REFGoal for Temperature : REF

High Sensitivit

y

Low Sensitivit

y

9°F

Emissions – Business as Usual Temperature


150

120

90

60

30

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (year)

Gto

nsC

O2/

year

USEUChina


Emissions – Stabilized Global Temperature Change

5

4

3

2

1

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Deg

rees

C

Temperature change from preindustrial[Deterministic] : StabilizeTemperature change from preindustrial[Deterministic] : REFGoal for Temperature

BAU

Stabilize5°F

Temperature

9°F

Global Temperature Change

5

4

3

2

1

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Deg

rees

C

Temperature change from preindustrial[Deterministic] : StabilizeGoal for Temperature

Total Emissions and Removals

150

120

90

60

30

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (year)

Gto

nsC

O2/

year

Net Uptake and Net SequestrationCO2 Emissions

Emissions

Removals

Emissions & Removals Temperature

5°F


150

120

90

60

30

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (year)

Gto

nsC

O2/

year

USEUChina


Temperature Sensitivity

4

3

2

1

0

2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075 2090Time (year)

Deg

rees

C

Temperature change from preindustrial["2C"] : -50 percentTemperature change from preindustrial[Deterministic] : -50 percentTemperature change from preindustrial["4.5C"] : -50 percentGoal for Temperature : -50 percent

Emissions – Cut 50%

Temperature

3°F


The world wasn’t ready

• Negotiators didn’t have the mandate to achieve a meaningful agreement

Result: as of recently,+7 degrees F in 2100


0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

3-Model Avg BOZEMAN MONTANA ST U WEST YELLOWSTONE Precip

Model Futures for MontanaAverage of GISS ER, CCSM, ECHAM5 ensembles from climexp.knmi.nl, lat 45.7 lon -110.9

Precipitation

Bozeman

West Yellowstone

Temperature

Tem

pera

ture

(C

)

Pre

cipit

ati

on

(m

m/d

ay)

Fid

how do we know it's not uhi

Fid

fahrenheit

Energy Emissions – WCI Partners, Observers & Others

Yukon Territory 0.4

Wyoming 62.9

Washington 85.6

Utah 66.1

Texas 663.9

South Dakota 13.2

Saskatchewan 57.4

Quebec 64.1

Oregon 42.7

Ontario 165

Nunavut 0.6

Nova Scotia 21.1

Northwest Territories 0.9

North Dakota 49.2

Newfoundland 9.4

New York 210.9

New Mexico 59

Nevada 49.6 Nebraska 43.1

Montana 36.3

Missouri 141.1

Michigan 189.6

Mexico 439.6

Manitoba 12.8

Maine 22.9

Louisiana 191.6

Kansas 72.5

Iowa 79.7

Idaho 15.8

Hawaii 23

Georgia 184

Florida 260.7

Colorado 94.3

California 390.6

British Columbia 55.2

Arizona 97.2

Alberta 200

Alaska 47.1

Sources: EPA - State CO2 Emissions from fossil fuel combustion, 1990-2005Environment Canada –National Inventory Report 1990-2005: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada

2

8

1

CO2: 19

Residential

Commercial

Industrial, Ag & Forestry

Transport

Electric Power

Gas

Coal

Petroleum

Renewables, Waste, Biomass

9611

196

1

15

16

14

28

21

28

57

8

110

Production

Production

108

114

Production

727

Production

191

Exports

527

Exports

29

Imports1

GHG Emissions

CO2: 2

CO2: 1

CO2: 7Other GHGs: 9

CO2: 8

Exports

6

14

Legend

Biomass/Renewables/Waste [Trillion BTU]

Electricity [Trillion BTU]

Coal [Trillion BTU]

Gas [Trillion BTU]

Petroleum [Trillion BTU]

CO2 [Million Ton CO2eq]

Other GHGs [Million Ton CO2eq]

MontanaEnergy & GHG Flows

ca. 2005

Sources:

Energy Flows:US - EIA State Energy Data System, 2005Canada - Statistics Canada, Report on Energy Supply-demand in Canada, 2005

Energy CO2 emissions:US - EIA SEDS + emissions factorsCanada - Environment Canada, National Inventory Report, 1990-2005, GHG Sources and Sinks in Canada

Non-Energy CO2 & Non-CO2 emissions:US - Various state GHG inventories, ca. 1990-2005

Canada - Environment Canada, National Inventory Report, 1990-2005, GHG Sources and Sinks in Canada

Notes:

Emissions and energy flows may not match regional GHG inventories due to differences in aggregation and omitted factors, required to place regions on a common basis.

Sector inflows and outflows may not sum to zero due to statistical differences and changes in stocks.

Completeness of data varies by region; generally non-CO2 and non-energy emissions, energy imports and exports, non-energy use, and flows of small magnitude will be understated.

Not shown: statistical differences, changes in stocks, producer consumption, and non-market fuels, land use change and sink uptake, international transport and marine bunker fuels.

Process emissions from oil and gas production and refining, coal mining, etc. appear in the industrial category.

Compiled by Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems, for the WSPA-sponsored WCI Collaborative, March 2009

Emissions per GDP

Sources: EPA - State CO2 Emissions from fossil fuel combustion, 1990-2005Environment Canada –National Inventory Report 1990-2005: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in CanadaUS GDP – EIA SEDS; Canada GDP – Statistics Canada, converted to $US at market exchange rates

1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400Emissions per GDP (TonCO2eq/M$)

WCI

Washington

Utah

Quebec

Oregon

Ontario

New Mexico

Montana

Manitoba

California

British ColumbiaArizona

Current Technologies Can Reduce Emissions

Socolow, Princeton

McKinsey: Initial Emissions Reductions Save Money

http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/pdf/Cost_Curve_for_Greenhouse_Gas_Reduction.pdf


Triggering the Good Tipping Points

• Regional Government– Imitation of successful policies– Complementary infrastructure

• Corporate– economies of scale, learning curves– networks, thought leadership

• Personal– Habits– Word of mouth, knowledge diffusion– Vision – what seems possible


Many policies are “no regrets”


Thanks!

Slides will be posted at

http://blog.metasd.com

Data Sources(red) EPICA Dome C temperature data: http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.683655(dark blue) Vostok CO2 data: http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.55501(steel blue) EPICA DomeC temperature data, 423-391 kybp: http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.472482(pale blue) EPICA DomeC CO2 data, 650-413 kybp: http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.472481(cyan) EPICA DomeC CO2 data, 800-650 kybp: http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.710901This figure was produced by Leland McInnes using python and matplotlib and is licensed under the GFDL. All data is from publicly available sources.


10

29

3

CO2: 14

Residential

Commercial

Industrial, Ag & Forestry

Transport

Electric Power

Gas

Coal

Petroleum

Renewables, Waste, Biomass

6

736

57

111

1

96

75

Exports

19

51

67

69

76

Nuclear

86

8

153

15

605

Imports

Production

827

282

Production

83

Imports

782

Imports30

Imports4

GHG Emissions

CO2: 5

CO2: 3

CO2: 16Other GHGs: 4

CO2: 44

113

Legend

Biomass/Renewables/Waste [Trillion BTU]

Electricity [Trillion BTU]

Coal [Trillion BTU]

Gas [Trillion BTU]

Petroleum [Trillion BTU]

CO2 [Million Ton CO2eq]

Other GHGs [Million Ton CO2eq]

WashingtonEnergy & GHG Flows

ca. 2005

Sources:

Energy Flows:US - EIA State Energy Data System, 2005Canada - Statistics Canada, Report on Energy Supply-demand in Canada, 2005

Energy CO2 emissions:US - EIA SEDS + emissions factorsCanada - Environment Canada, National Inventory Report, 1990-2005, GHG Sources and Sinks in Canada

Non-Energy CO2 & Non-CO2 emissions:US - Various state GHG inventories, ca. 1990-2005

Canada - Environment Canada, National Inventory Report, 1990-2005, GHG Sources and Sinks in Canada

Notes:

Emissions and energy flows may not match regional GHG inventories due to differences in aggregation and omitted factors, required to place regions on a common basis.

Sector inflows and outflows may not sum to zero due to statistical differences and changes in stocks.

Completeness of data varies by region; generally non-CO2 and non-energy emissions, energy imports and exports, non-energy use, and flows of small magnitude will be understated.

Not shown: statistical differences, changes in stocks, producer consumption, and non-market fuels, land use change and sink uptake, international transport and marine bunker fuels.

Process emissions from oil and gas production and refining, coal mining, etc. appear in the industrial category.

Compiled by Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems, for the WSPA-sponsored WCI Collaborative, March 2009


WCI Partner Emissions, 2005



US Energy Infrastructure

Source:EIA State Energy Profiles, 2009; http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/state/


Emissions per Capita

Sources: EPA - State CO2 Emissions from fossil fuel combustion, 1990-2005Environment Canada –National Inventory Report 1990-2005: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in CanadaUS population – EIA SEDS; Canada population – Statistics Canada

1990 1995 2000 2005

Year

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46Emissions per Capita (TonCO2eq/person/yr)

WCI

Washington

Utah

Quebec

Oregon

Ontario

New Mexico

Montana

Manitoba

California

British Columbia

Arizona


Gross Emissions – Consumption Basis


1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

Year

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

Gross Emissions - Cons Basis (MMTCO2eq/yr)

Washington

Utah

Quebec

Oregon

Ontario

New Mexico

Montana

Manitoba

California

British Columbia

Arizona


Partner Emissions & Targets vs. 1990

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

Gross Emissions vs 1990

WCI

Washington

Utah

Quebec

Oregon

Ontario

New Mexico

Montana

Manitoba

California

British Columbia

Arizona

Gross

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Year

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

WCI

Washington

Utah

Quebec

Oregon

Ontario

New Mexico

Montana

Manitoba

California

British Columbia

Arizona

Target

History: US – state greenhouse gas inventoriesCanada - Environment Canada – National Inventory Report 1990-2005: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada

Projections:US – state GHG projections and climate action planning documentsCanada – linear trend extrapolation

Targets: US – state climate action planning documents; Pew Center on Global Climate Change, http://www.pewclimate.org/states-regionsCanada – Environment Canada, Turning the Corner: Detailed Emissions and Economic Modelling, http://www.ec.gc.ca/doc/virage-corner/2008-03/571/p1_eng.htm


C-ROADS at COP-15

• President briefed by Science Advisor

• Scoreboard went viral

• Real-time analysis picked up by media, negotiators

• US State Dept used as common platform, picked up by other delegations

“This capability, had it been available to me when we negotiated Kyoto, would have yielded a different outcome.” Tim Wirth, President, UN Foundation,

former Senator

Dr. Elizabeth Sawin

Andrew Jones

Stephanie McCauley

1 April 2010

www.climatescoreboard.org

The Climate Scoreboard

Recent Results

PotentialProposals

ConfirmedProposals

Business as Usual

Low Emissions Path

01-Apr-10 Climate Scoreboard ©Sustainability Institute www.ClimateScoreboard.org

PotentialProposals

ConfirmedProposals

Business as Usual

Low Emissions Path


PotentialProposals

ConfirmedProposals

Business as Usual

Low Emissions Path


PotentialProposals

ConfirmedProposals

Business as Usual

Low Emissions Path


For latest results or questions

www.ClimateScoreboard.org

Contact:Dr. Elizabeth SawinClimate Interactive ProgramSustainability [email protected] twitter: twitter.com/climateinteract+1-802-436-1277 X 103 (office)+1-603-715-0116 (mobile)

www.climateinteractive.org

Climate Science, Climate Policy and Montana Tom Fiddaman 5/20/2010.

Documents

f slide

mit slide

index slide

usualtemperature slide

sea level slide

registered trademark

costa rica slide

model demo slide