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Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008
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Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

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Page 1: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Dayton ASHRAE Chapter

Climate Change & Ozone Depletion

Tom Werkema

March 10, 2008

Page 2: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Agenda

1. Climate Science – Known & Unknowns

2. Climate International

3. Climate Country Specific

4. Ozone Science

5. Ozone International

6. Ozone Country Programs

7. Industry Response

8. Personal Responses to Climate Change

Page 3: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Climate Change Science

Page 4: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Like the sun, the Earth also emits radiation. It is much cooler than the sun, though, so it emits in the infrared, just like a person, a cat, or any other body. Some of that infrared energy may be absorbed by molecules in the atmosphere, affecting the global energy balance.

What is the “greenhouse effect”?

Page 5: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Venus has an atmosphere with more than 90% CO2. It also has sulfuric acid clouds. Its planetary greenhouse effect is about 500°C (the atmosphere raises the temperature by that much).

Earth has an atmosphere with much less CO2 than Venus. The greenhouse effect raises its average temperature by about 30°C. The greenhouse effect is basic physics and it is real. What about greenhouse warming?

Page 6: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

The Atmosphere

CCS-2

Page 8: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.
Page 9: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

The 1990s were warmer than at anytime during the last 1000 years

CCS-3

Page 10: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.
Page 11: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

CO2 Emissions

10/28/02-cc5

Page 12: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.
Page 13: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Extent of Arctic Sea Ice 1979 and 2005

Page 14: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.
Page 15: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Changes to clouds: the biggest cause of uncertainty in predictions

Low clouds cool climate

High clouds warm climate

Global warming will change cloud characteristics

and, hence, their warming or cooling effect.

This will exert a powerful feedback on climate change,

but this feedback will differ from model to model.

Page 16: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Antarctic Temperature Trends, 1966–2000

Page 17: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.
Page 18: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Components of sea-level rise

Page 19: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.
Page 20: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.
Page 22: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ocean circulation in the North Atlantic

Page 23: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

0 10 20 30 40

1901-1910

1911-1920

1921-1930

1931-1940

1941-1950

1951-1960

1961-1970

1971-1980

1981-1990

1991-2000

2001-2005

Major HurricanAll Hurricanes

US Hurricane Cycles Wax and Wane

4 18

7 21

5 13

8 19

10 24

8 17

6 14

4 12

5 15

5 14

6 12

Page 24: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Hurricanes Per Year

0 5 10

1905-1930

1931-1994

1995-20051995-2005

1931-1994

1905-1930

REF: Nat’l Center for Atm. Presearch July, 2007

8.4

5.1

3.4

Page 25: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.
Page 26: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.
Page 27: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.
Page 28: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Global Emissions Scenario

IS92 a IPCC 1992

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

GtC/yr

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Annex 1

Non Annex 1

Current estimates for emissions growth in Non-Annex 1 countries are even higher

Page 29: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Global Emissions for 550 PPM Stabilization

IPCC 1994

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

GtC/yr

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Annex 1

Non Annex 1

Stabilization is not feasible without Non-Annex 1 countries’ participation

Page 30: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Radiative Forcing

CCS-7

Page 31: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Halocarbon Emissions, continued

Combined CO2-equivalent emissions from halocarbons:

~7.5 Gt near 1990, about 33% of that year's CO2 emissions from global fossil fuel burning

~2.5 Gt near 2000, about 10% of that year’s CO2 emissions from global fossil fuel burning

Page 32: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Date (year A.D.)

CO2

Page 33: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 Date (year A.D.)

HFC-134a

CO2

Decay of tetrafluoroethane (T = 14 years) inthe atmosphere compared to CO2

Page 34: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500

Date (year A.D.)

HFC-134a

CO2

Cut-off at a 100 year Integration Time Horizon

Page 35: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Climate Change International

Page 36: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Climate Change InternationalAugust 1990June 1992

March/April 1995

December 1995July 1996

December 1997

First IPCC AssessmentRio de Janeiro, FrameworkConvention on ClimateChangeConference of Parties (1),BerlinSecond IPCC AssessmentConference of Parties (II),GenevaConference of Parties (III),Kyoto

Page 37: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Kyoto Protocol

• Controls Emissions

• 6 Greenhouse Gases– CO2, N2O, CH4, HFCs, PFCs, SF6

• Avg. reduction for developed countries– 5.2% from 1990 level

• 2015 reduction-1.7ppm to 381.3 ppm

Page 38: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Climate Change - International

• First Meeting of Kyoto Protocol Parties in Montreal, November, 05– US non Party– First Commitment Period – 2008 thru 2012– No Second Commitment or Period defined– Canadian Environment Minister was President

Page 39: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Kyoto Protocol Meeting 2006 Nairobi

• Adaptation Fund creation– Significant discussion by developing countries. – May be used as tradeoff for developing country

commitments– Administrative rules were agreed

Page 40: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Bali - 2007

• Largest attended meeting ever– More new NGO’s

• Youth, Indigenous Peoples, Civil Society

• Agreement for 2 year negotiations– Inclusive of US

• Under both UNFCCC and KP – 2 tracks

– No developing country commitments• Weak, voluntary language

• Negotiations completed in 2009– Commitments commence in 2013

Page 41: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Other Climate Change• Achim Steiner, UNFCCC Ex. Sec. requested

emergency meeting General Assembly on climate– Moon agreed – September 24, 2007

• White House conference 13 countries 9/27.9/28/07• IPCC – released first 3 Working Group reports

– “…globally average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming…”

– 90% probability that climate change is manmade

– Massive populations at risk, plan/animal species

• Steiner noted MP contribution to KP goals – MP 8 GT, KP 2 GT, substitute HCFCs/HFCs add 1 GT

Page 42: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Other Climate Change

• G8 Climate Focus– Aim to cut ghgs 50% by 2050– Incorporate India/China

• 16 largest cities to reduce energy consumption in existing buildings –Clinton Climate Initiative– Houston, Chicago, NY– ASHRAE – Honeywell, Trane, Siemens, Johnson

Controls conduct audits– Clinton will attend Nov 1,2 Mayor’s Conference in

Seattle

Page 43: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Country Climate Programs

Page 44: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

USA

Page 45: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

EU F Gas Regulation

Key sectors – refrigeration, air-conditioning, heat pumps, high-voltage switchgear

• Reporting– Production,imports, exports

• Marketing & use bans limited– Non-refillable containers

• Entered into force July 4, 2007– Rules still being written

Page 46: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

EU F Gas Regulation

• CONTAINMENT– Stationary applications prevent/minimize leakage– Number of annual checks depends on equipment size– Maintain records of inspections

• RECOVERY– Recover gases at end of life– Certified personnel for recycling, reclamation, destruction– Commission establish minimum requirements by 7/08

• LABELLING– Containers of F gases– Refrigeration, A/C equipment

Page 47: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

EU F Gas Regulation

• 2010 REVIEW– Whether containment can extend to MAC– Assess need for emission control from

products/equipment• Foam • Technical product design

– Assess BAT/BEP– Assess state of technology, particularly for foams– Assess marketing prohibitions

• Technical feasibility• Energy efficiency considerations

Page 48: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

EU Mobile A/C Directive• <50 gms HFC/year Emission

– If GWP > 150– Hammonized leak detection test

• < 60 gms/year dual evaporation• 1/1/11 no new model MAC > 150 GWP• 1/1/17 no new MAC > 150 GWP• Service allowed

– “Abnormal” leakage requires repair– Review Procedure 12 months or 5 years after entry into

force– Honeywell/Dupont/Others announced low GWP

alternatives

• Tailpipe emissions separate regulation

Page 49: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

EU Emissions Trading

2005-7 covers: energy, oil steel & paper

2008 covers all large emittersMS allocate individually

EU is bringing aviation into ETS.

Page 50: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Price development in the EU ETS

€ 6

€ 10

€ 14

€ 18

€ 22

€ 26

€ 30

Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 J un-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 J un-06 Aug-06 Oct-06

Page 51: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.
Page 52: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

HFC’s – Country Program

• Denmark– EC is pursuing infringement proceeding– Law effective July 1, 2002– Tax $7.90/LB HFC – 134a– General Use, including recycle use, in new products

P/O 1/1/06– Exceptions: 1/1/02 District Heat Pumps

Foam for joints Aerosol

1/1/06 Flexible foam1/1/07 Cooling Plants,

Heat Pumps, dehumidifiers, Refrigeration & A/C over

10Kg CCEU-6

Page 53: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

HFC’s – Country Program

• Denmark (con’t)– Exceptions: Refrigeration & A/C 0.15-10Kg– A/C in Hermetic systems to 50Kg

• MAC’s• Medical• Lab• Military• Onboard Ships• Servicing

CCEU-7

Page 54: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

HFC’s Country Programmes

• Norway– 180 NKr per ton CO2 equivalent

– Norwegian Industry Attempted to Overturn• Got Agreement as “Deposit”

CCEU-9

Page 55: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

HFC’s – Country Program

• Switzerland – HFC’s Phase/Out– 1/1/03 Aerosols, except MDI– 1/1/03 Domestic refrigeration and freezers– 1/1/03 Extinguishing agents (some exemptions)– 1/1/03 Foams unless efficacy proven– 1/1/03 Solvents– 1/1/05 A/C (checked annually)– 1/1/08 MAC’s (check annually)– Existing Domestic A/C not included

CCEU-10

Page 56: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

HFC’s – Country Program

• Switzerland – Ban HFCs effective July 1, 03– Does Not Apply:

• Some spray cans

• 1/1/04 – Foams Manufacture– Can Grant “Derogation”

» No Substitutes

• Solvents – can grant “derogation”– Limited time frame

– No alternatives

– Measures to avoid emissions

Page 57: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Canada

• HFC restricted to ODS substitutes - whitepaper• Concern over cross border influence under KP• Harper versus Dion – early summer election??• Mandatory reporting in 2005• Declared all GHGs CEPA Toxic

Page 58: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Canada

• $2B over 5 years for implementation– $1.3B for public transportation– $0.77B for transit tax credits– 5% ethanol fuel by 2010– CAPS and absolute reductions by 2025

• 40-65% reductions from 2002 baseline by 2050

• Upstream & oil shale produce 1/3rd Canada’s GHG emissions –26.6% growth since 1990

Page 59: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Canada

• 18% emissions intensity reduction by 2010, based on 2006– 2% per year additional thereafter to 2020

• $15-$20 “safety valve” for industry

• Alberta has proposed 12% intensity reduction between 7/1 and 12/31/07!!

Page 60: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Why not Kyoto?

• The United States does NOT intend to

undermine the efforts of Kyoto countries

BUT

• Short time frames are not realistic

• Too few countries signed on to Kyoto;

emissions would just shift to others

Page 61: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

• Climate change is a serious issue• It took decades to develop and may

take decades to address• Real, global environmental progress

requires economic growth

The key is to invest in cleaner,

more efficient technologies

What is the U.S. view?

Page 62: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.
Page 63: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.
Page 64: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.
Page 65: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.
Page 66: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

US Climate Change – 2006 emission

• Since 1990, intensity down 2% per year

• Total emissions have grown 0.9%/yr– 14.4% increase– KP – 7% decrease– CO2 – 83.8%, CH4 8.6%, N2O 5.4%,

HFCs+PFCs+SF6 2.2%

Page 67: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

US Residential Energy Use - 2001

48%

6%

17%

5%

24%

Space Heating

Air Conditioning

Water Heating

Refrigerators

Other Appliances& Lighting

Page 68: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

US Commercial Buildings Energy Use 1995

32%

7%

3%15%

23%

4%

3%

6%7%

HeatingCooling VentilationWater HeatingLightingCookingRefrigerationOffice EquipmentOther

Page 69: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

US Total Primary Energy Use by Sector 2005

22%

18%

32%

28% Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Transportation

Page 70: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

US Legislative/Regulatory Process

• Legislative – any Congressman/Senator introduce a bill– Referred to House/Senate Committee

– After deliberation, Committee moves to Floor

– Floor debate• Sent back to Committee

• Voted and Approved

– Corresponding Bill in opposite Chamber

– Conference Committee resolves differences

Page 71: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

US Regulatory/Legislative Process

• Common Bill forwarded to President for Signature– Veto– Approve

• Implements Law– EPA/DOE develop Regulations to implement

Page 72: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

US Congressional Discussions

• 2007 - 4 Major Bills in Senate – same in House

• Do “Ds” give Bush this legislation?

• White House may be ready to discuss

• Lieberman-Warner out of Senate Envr & Public Works Dec., 2007

Page 73: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

US Congressional Discussions• Senate Bills include CAP & Trade, reduction

targets– Lieberman/McCain

• Economy wide• 2004 levels in 2012, 1990 by 2020• 20% below 1990 in 2030, 60% below in 2050

– Sanders/Boxer• 1990 level in 2020• 27% below 1990 in 2030, 53% below in 2040, 80% below in

2050

– Bingamen/Specter – introduced July 13• “upstream” cap & trade in 2012 – 76% “free”• 2006 by 2020, 1990 by 2030

Page 74: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

1

U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE PROPOSALS

(GE, DuPont, GM, NRDC coalition)

Page 75: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Lieberman-Warner

• Allowances – emissions based per MT CO2e

• Track emissions – EPA registry, regulations – Registry w/I 180 days, rules by July 1, 2008

– Production, importation, exportation, consumption

– Annual and quarterly data

– 2004-=2007 facility data required by March 31, 2009

– 2008 and beyond–quarterly data w/i 60 days EOQ• Annual w/i 90 days EOY

– Subject to verification

Page 76: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Lieberman-Warner

• Enforcement– $25,000 per day per violation

• Emissions Allowances– 2012 – 2005 levels– 2020 – 15% below 2005– 2030 – 33% below 2005– 2040 – 52% below 2005– 2050 – 70% below 2005

Page 77: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Climate Change - States• RGGI announced by 7 NE States

– CAP and Trade system CO2 – Begins 2009 w/current level CAP

• Frozen until 2015, then gradual reduction

– 10% reduction by 2019– Focus on utilities

• Western states announced 2/07– Links to RGGI– 15% below 2005 in 2020

• Midwest states also considering• US Mayors announced Clinton Climate Initiative, Nov 2007

Page 78: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Climate Change - States

• Calif., NM, Oregon, Wash. develop low-carbon technologies and renewables

• NJ introduced Climate Legislation – July– 1990 levels by 2020– 80% below 2006 in 2050– California emissions reductions programs

Page 79: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

US Climate Change - Other

• Following Action in 26 Other States– Executive orders– Pending Legislation

• 32 States announced common Registry• States implementing/working on reduction plans:

– Emissions reductions: Arizona, California, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Washington, Wisconsin

– Energy reductions only: Colorado, New Hampshire

Page 80: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

California Climate Action–AB 32

• Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 12/31/20– Interim reductions 7/1/12, 7/1/16

• Multi-sector, market-based program• Establishes multi-Agency Climate Action Board

– CAB establishes GHG Emissions Reduction Plan• Includes economics and benefits

• Multi-sector, market-based compliance

• 8.2MT CO2 equiv for F Gases

– Out of 170MT CO2 Total

Page 81: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

California Climate Action–AB 32

• CARB maintain GHG inventory

• Beginning 1/1/08, annual reports

• “Largest stationary source” Mandatory Reporting– Oil & gas extraction, oil refining, electricity,

cement, landfills

• CARB can adopt fee schedule

• Multiple workshops Dec 06-July 07

Page 82: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

California Climate ActionAB 32

• Discrete Early Action Strategies – implement by 1/1/10– Low carbon fuel standard – Reduction of MAC refrigerant loss from non-

professionals– Increased landfill methane capture– Green ports– Reduction consumer products high GWP gases – Reduction PFC in electronics– Truck efficiency– Tire inflation program– SF6 reduction in non electrical

Page 83: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

California Climate ActionAB 32• Other discrete early actions (direct regulatory

action – 44 measures total)– HFC Venting control– Ban HFC release servicing/dismantling– A/C tightness checking– Heavy duty vehicle emissions reduction– Cool automobile paints– Transport refrigeration, standby electric– Business GHG reduction/guidance– Anti-idling enforcement– High GWP refrigerant tracking/reporting– Alternative suppressants in fire suppression systems

Page 84: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

California Climate Action–AB 32

• Other discrete early actions (direct regulatory action – 23 measures – cont’d)– Tire inflation

– Low GWP MVACs

– Port electrification

– Reduction of HFCs in foam

– Green ships

– Energy savings from cement mfg

• Workshop on Feb 15, 2008 – HVAC & R

Page 85: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.
Page 86: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Climate Change Alliance & Others

Page 87: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

0

100

200

300

400

50020

05

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Mill

ion

To

ns

CO

2e

q

HFCs in original equipment and products

HFC AftermarketHCFCs

BAU Scenario of HFC and HCFC Market Demand in U.S.

Proposed cap

HFC allocation under L-W

Page 88: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Forms of Regulation for HFCs

• Command & Control – Regulations dictate form of solution– Technology Standard; e.g. California Proposed Early Action measures – Ban/Phase-out; e.g. MAC directive– Inspection, repair, refrigerant recover; e.g. HCFC rules in U.S., f-gas

regulation• Performance Standards – Probably not applicable to HFCs• Labeling – Probably viewed as not sufficient• Voluntary Programs – Probably viewed as not sufficient

Page 89: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Forms of Regulation for HFCs

• Market Based Mechanisms – Allows market to decide– Carbon Tax – Government sets the price

– Carbon trading (cap and trade) – Likely to be disruptive due to carbon price

– HFC cap with allocation; similar to HCFC allocation – Would allow maximum flexibility for market

Page 90: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) & Carbon Prices

Refrigerant/Compound IPCC SAR GWP

(Carbon price/kg @ $20/tonne CO2)

IPCC/AR4 GWP

(Carbon price/kg @ $20/tonne CO2)

HCFC-22 1820

HCFC-142b 2310

HFC-152a 140 ($2.80) 124 ($2.48)

HFC-32 650 ($13.00) 675 ($13.50)

HFC-245fa 1020 ($20.60)

HFC-134a 1300 ($26.00) 1430 ($28.60)

HFC-4310mee 1300 ($26.00) 1640 ($32.80)

HFC-125 2800 ($56.00) 3500 ($70.00)

HFC-227ea 2900 ($58.00) 3220 ($64.40)

HFC-143a 3800 ($76.00) 4470 ($89.40)

R-410A 1725 ($34.50) 2088 ($41.76)

R-404A 3260 ($65.20) 3922 ($78.44)

Page 91: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Alliance & Others Activity

• Montreal Protocol allocation– Essentially CAP & Trade– Declining CAP brought steady rise in product

prices, which passed through market– Customers demanded and producers brought

lower ODP products to market

Page 92: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

L- W Title X

• Applies to Production, Import including Products or Equipment

• Baseline – 300,000,000 MT CO2

• GWPs based on 4th Science Assessment• Excludes recycled, recovered• Destruction credits allowed (HFCs today, ODS?)• Baseline year 2005

– HFC producer, importer, product/equipment importer

Page 93: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

L-W Title X

• Banking (5 year, destruction credit only) and Borrowing (3 year) allowed; borrowing brings 10% interest, 15% quantity limitation

• Commences 2010 – 2% prior year declining CAP thru 2050 (70% total decline)

• Allocation to: Producers/Importers 2004-2006 and on date of enactment– Basis 100% of HFCs + 60% of HCFCs, GWP weighted

avg. 2004-2006

Page 94: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

L-W Title X

• Auction– 5% of above in 2010, increasing to 100% in 2031

– Proceeds used for:• Recovery/destruction of ODS and GWP gases

• Consumer incentives for refrig./cooling equipment– Refrigerants with low or no GWP

– Energy efficiency >30% Fed. Energy std and Energy Star

– Development of low GWP HFCs

– Development of energy efficient technologies

– Programs under the broader auction

Page 95: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

L-W Title X

• Permanent retirement not allowed, EPA can reclaim allocations

• Allowances not exchangeable with broader program

• Regulations 18 months after enactment• No destruction credit for byproducts• Ban on small containers of HFCs (<20

pounds) for MAC

Page 96: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Alliance & Others Activities

• HFC CAP & Trade Benefits– Orderly transition to next generation technology,

including HCFC to HFC transition

– Allows strategic business planning for both suppliers/users due to supply/pricing stability

– System familiar to regulated community

– Provides incentives for technology evolution

– Encourages recover/recycling

– Discourages frivolous uses

Page 97: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone -Science

Page 98: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

The Ozone Layer

Sun

UltravioletRadiation

Ozonelayer

The ozone layer is a protective blanket that filters out most of the harmful ultravioletRadiation from the sun. The ozone layer lies in the stratosphere typically between 8 and25 miles (13 to 40 km) above the Earth’s surface.

AFEASSeptember 1993

Page 99: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

ReservoirComponents

Production/Destruction of Stratospheric Ozone

O2

(molecularOxygen)

O(atomicOxygen)

O3

(ozone)

Sourcegases

O2O2

Cl(active

Species)

OzoneDestruction

cycle

ClO

O2 Cl2O2

ClOO

SolarUltraviolet

energy

SolarUltraviolet

energy

O3

SolarUltraviolet

energy

SolarUltraviolet

energy

Production Destruction (e.g., by chlorine

Page 100: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Variability in the ozone hole

Unusual ozone hole in 2002 due to dynamical variability

Page 101: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 102: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 103: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 104: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 105: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 106: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 107: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 108: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 109: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 110: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 111: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 112: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 113: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 114: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 115: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 116: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 117: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 118: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 119: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Ozone Hole 2007

Page 120: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Global Ozone Depletion

Page 121: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Montreal Protocol International

Page 122: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Montreal Protocol 2007HCFC Adjustments Developed Countries

• New Schedule

• 2010 – 75% Reduction

• 2015 – 90 % Reduction

• 2020-2030 – 0.5% service

• Old Schedule

• 65% Reduction

• 90% reduction

• 0.5% service

Page 123: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Montreal Protocol 2007HCFC Adjustments Developing Countries

• New Schedule• 2013 Freeze @ 2009,

2010 average• 2015 10% reduction• 2020 35% reduction• 2025 67.5% reduction• 2030-2040 2.5%

service• 2040 phase out

• Old Schedule• 2016 – Freeze @ 2015

levels

• 2040 – phase out

Page 124: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Mexico

• Considering HCFC Allocation Program– License=Allocation=Cap and Trade– Focus on HCFC-141b, HCFC-22– Encouraging consistency with US/Canada

• 10 year delay

• Incorporate new MP requirements

• First in any Developing Country

Page 125: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Refrigerant Responsible Use

Page 126: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Responsible Use

RUP’s – endorsed byOver 30 government & Trade associations

Page 127: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Responsible Use Guide

• Current steps– Works w/i framework of RUP– Market Sector Specific– Being developed by each sector– Target audiences in developing countries– Voluntary development and implementation

Page 128: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Responsible Use Guide Update

Fire Protection – first Guide, will be revised

Page 129: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Responsible Use Guide

Air conditioning &Refrigeration –The newest guide

Page 130: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Responsible Use Guides

Refrigerators – veryComprehensive forFoams & refrigeration

Page 131: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Responsible Use Guide Update

• Mobile Air Conditioning – part of IMAC?• HFC Producers

– Survey complete

– Draft RUG complete• Circulating for company endorsement – Europe, US, Far East

• Foams– Survey complete 2005

– Summary complete late 2005

– Yet to find Association to take forward

Page 132: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Personal Responses to Climate Change

Page 133: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Driving

• Drive 10% less –walk, carpool, public transit, in-line skate, telework

• Don’t use car A/C, or use sparingly

• Give up 2nd vehicle

• Don’t idle – stop more than 10 seconds (except in traffic) turn off engine

• Drive at posted speed limit 62 mph to 75 mph + 20% more fuel

• Cruise Control

Page 134: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Driving

• Block heater when temp below 32°F– Winter fuel economy 10%

• Vehicle maintenance

• Tire inflation – 70% of vehicles have one tire over/under inflated

• Hybrid-electric vehicles

• Remove roof racks when not in use

Page 135: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Home

• Install energy-efficient furnace

• Caulking/weather stripping – could be 20% of heat/ac loses

• Energy Star Label – windows/sliding doors

• Install storm windows – could be 25% of heat/ac loses

• Replace exterior doors

• Use window blinds

• Furnace maintenance every 2 years

– 1o = 5% energy savings – programmable thermostat

• Seal/insulate warm air ducts

• Upgrade insulation

Page 136: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Home

• Lower thermostat - 2°F=2% heat bill

• Shut off pilot lights

• Ceiling Fans - 8¢ - $1.50/month (a/c $6-$40)

• Remove window a/c in winter

• Florescent light bulbs – light dimmers, occupancy sensors

• Window curtains: open in winter, closed in summer

• Clean/replace a/c-heating filters

• Turn off all sources of heat in summer: lights, appliances, electrical equipment

• Baking/washing/drying/ironing early morning or evening

Page 137: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Appliances• Clean refrigerator coils regularly• Energy Star• Unplug second refrigerator or freezer• Dishwasher no-heat/air dry cycle, not hand wash• Maintain refrigerator @ 35°F, freezer @ 0°F• Cloths rinse in cold, wash in warm water• Don’t overdry, hang clothes to dry

– Purchase dryer with moisture sensor

• Hot water tank pre 2004, insulate

Page 138: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Appliances• Purchase front load washer – 40% less water per load

• Efficient light bulbs-LED or fluorescent

• Install outdoor automatic timers

• Computer system with energy-saver option

– Computer running full time: $70-$100 energy per year

– Use “sleep” or “hibernate” mode

– Smart Strip Power Strip

• Use as little paper as possible

• Buy right size monitor

• Turn off computer at night – 1/3rd left on

• 40% of appliance energy used when off

Page 139: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Lawn

• Capture/reuse rainwater

• Leave grass clippings on lawn

• Water early in morning

• Avoid chemical use

• Limit use of gas powered mowers, tools

• Pool efficiency

• Plant trees

Page 140: Dayton ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change & Ozone Depletion Tom Werkema March 10, 2008.

Home Water

• Low-flow showerheads• High-efficiency water heaters• Quick showers• Avoid running the tap• Insulate water pipes – (not w/i 6” of exhaust

pipe)• Turn off cottage water heater• Turn water off when shaving/brushing teeth