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Climate Changeand Cities

2011July

Milano School of International AffairsManagement and Urban PolicyThe New School New York

Assistant Professor Sustainability Management

Shagun Mehrotra

wwwshagunmehrotraorg

THE WORLD BANK

Knowledge for Action in Jorsquoburg

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RATIONALE Build Scientific Basis for City Action

Urban Heat Island New York CitySource Rosenzweig et al 2009

Climate change and water stressin African slums Kampala

Cities generate up to 70 of global GHGemissions and are extremely vulnerable toclimate change impacts

Past climate research has overlookedcities despite unique factors

1 Majority of global population is urban2 Hubs of economic activity3 Frequently located on coasts or major rivers

4 Urban heat island and air quality problems5 On front lines dealing with climate impacts

ARC3 GoalTo establish on-going city-centered scientific

assessment for state-of-knowledge reports to urbandecision-makers and help build capacity for action

Climate Change and African Cities

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2011July

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ABOUT ARC3

Source Center for Climate Systems ResearchColumbia University 2011

Cities represented in ARC3

Launched at C40 New York in 2008 byUrban Climate Change Research Network

ARC3 content reflects needs assessmentfeedback from city actors in developingand developed countries

Executive Summary for Mayors and citymanagers is available online

Book released to Mayors at C40 Sao Pauloand ICLEI Resilient Cities Bonn

ARC3 ProcessMulti-stage review

Report published in 2011Cambridge University Press

100+ lead and contributingauthors from over 50 citiesBOTHadaptation and mitigation specialists

INTERDISCIPLINARYclimate scientists geographers

planners engineers policy experts

Climate Change and African Cities

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2011July

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RISK amp HAZARDSECTION 1 |

How do we assess urban climatechange risk and what is the role

of climate science

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CLIMATE RISK ARC3

Source Mehrotra et al 2009Cambridge University PressRISK Framework

Risk is a function of climate hazards cityrsquos

physical and social vulnerabilities and institutionalagency to combat climate change

Unpacking risk

VulnerabilitySize and DensityTopography of Poor of GDP

Hazards

AdaptiveCapacityVulnerability

Risk

Adaptive CapacityInformation andResourcesInstitutions andGovernance

Climate Change and African Cities

Climate Changeand CitiesState-of-the-knowledge

2011July

HazardsTemperaturePrecipitationSea-level rise

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CLIMATE HAZARDS ARC3

Source Center for Climate Systems ResearchColumbia University 2009HAZARDS takeaway

1 More frequentlongerhotter heatwaves

2 More floods and droughts3 Sea-level rise with enhanced coastal flooding

12 Cities Analyzed7 Melbourne8 New York9 Sao Paulo10 Shanghai11 Tokyo12 Toronto

2050s projectedtemperatureincrease between1

deg

C to 4deg

C

2050s Temperature Projection

Delhi

2050s Temperature Projection

Athens

2050s Temperature Projection 2050s Temperature Projection

Sao Paulo Shanghai

1 Athens2 Dakar3 Delhi4 Harare5 Kingston6 London

Climate Change and African Cities

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2011July

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Urban SectorsSECTION 2 |

Given the risk assessmentswhat are the implications for

urban infrastructure

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HEALTH ARC3

HEALTH takeawayClimate change likely to exacerbate existinghealth risks in cities and create new ones Heatwave exacerbates existing health risks

of poor amp elderly in NYC July 4-6 1999

High Existing Health Risks Kibera NairobiSource Shagun Mehrotra 2003

Risks1 Large city and high density amplify health risks2 Increase in poor and elderly populations compoundsthreats of heat and vector-related illness3 Cities with limited existing services at greater risk of

drought and vector-related illnessesAdaptation and Mitigation strategies 1 Passive approaches mdashtree planting green roofspermeable pavements mdashto reduce urban heat island2 Improving and increasing water and energy services3 Regulate settlement growth in flood plains4 Expand health surveillance and early warningsystems mdashtechnology and people buddy systems

Source

Climate Change and African Cities

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WATER ARC3

WATER take awayWater supply services highly vulnerable todrought extreme precipitation and sea level rise Water supply systems are at risk

Water Scarcity and Vendors LagosSource Ademolo Omojola

Risks1 Variance in precipitation significantly affects quantityand quality of water supply2 Impervious city surfaces and increased precipitationintensity overwhelm current city drainage systems

3 Over 12 the people in large developing country citiesrely on informal water supply mdashvendors

Adaptation and Mitigation strategies 1 Reduce water theft and leaks2 Adjust water-intake locations3 Rainwater harvesting and water reuse4 Demand management mdashpublic education industrialprocess changes to reduce water intensity

Source WSP The World Bank

Copenhagen Climate Summit for Mayors

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TRANSPORT ARC3

TRANSPORT takeawayIncorporate climate considerations into transit

plans construction and management systemswhile retrofitting existing assets

Compressed Natural Gas Cabs Delhi

Civil society organizations and courtshave been instrumental in legislatingconversion of public transport to befuelled by CNG

Risks mdashcontingent on local transport systems1 Mass transit vs individual vehicles2 Underground vs elevated roads and rail3 Moving people vs goods4 Impacts on power and telecom systems create

transport system risks mdashinter-modal issuesAdaptation and Mitigation strategies 1 Technical vs ecosystem-based approaches2 Levees dams pumps to limit flood damage3 Improve drainage to protect transport assets4 Elevate equipment to eliminate flood risk5 Temporarily move rolling stock in advance of storms6 Diversify transport modal choices

Climate Change and African Cities

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ENERGY ARC3

ENERGY takeawayMitigation prioritized but adaptation focus

equally important

Risks mdashcontingent on energy systems1 Power plant flooding2 Increased variance in water quantity and timing impacthydro-power3 Increase in heat waves imply more frequent blackouts

damaging local economy4 Demand may increase or decrease

Adaptation and Mitigation strategies 1 Demand management programs to cut peak load2 ldquoHardenrdquo power plants and networks to increaseresilience to floodingstormtemperature risks3 Diversify fuel-mix for city power to increase share of renewables

Coal Based Energy Supply Baoshan

Climate Change and African Cities

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City-wide IssuesSECTION 3 |

Given the risk assessments sectoralimplications what does this mean for

the city as a whole

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TAKEAWAYS ARC3mdashCITIES ACT Climate Change and African Cities

Climate Changeand CitiesState-of-the-knowledge

2011July

1 Cities are at high risk but haveseveral mechanisms to adapt andmitigate

2 Cities serve as laboratories forclimate change action despiteconstraints

3 Ample climate risk amp responseinformation yet in limited use

Risk ReductionBy mainstreaming climate science adaptation and

mitigation actions into ongoing and plannedinvestments

Many citiesdevelop long-term

action plans eachyear mdashbut mostneglect climaterisks

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NEXT JOrsquoBURG ACTS

We can collaborateto build capacity for Jorsquoburgrsquos climateaction through continuous sharing ofcutting-edge researchto assess climate risk and response forJorsquoburgrsquos growth amp development strategy

Operationalizing Jorsquoburgrsquos Response1 Establish a JPCC through knowledge

sharing in collaboration with and forthe city

2 City-specific climate change riskassessment process to be integratedinto Growth and Development Strategy

3 Leverage ongoing and plannedinvestments to reduce risk mdashenhance

competitiveness and inclusion

UrbanClimateChangeResearchNetworkwwwuccrnorg

Climate Change and African Cities

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Climate Change and Cities

Jorsquoberg | Operationalizing Response

Thank You

17

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Jorsquoburg Acts SECTION 4 | Discussion