Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org Federal Budget & Health Outlook: Implications for CO Robb Gray Director of State Engagement & Partnerships.

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Federal Budget & Health Outlook:Implications for CO

Robb Gray Director of State Engagement &

Partnerships www.cbpp.org

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Overview

• Budget Outlook

• President’s Budget Proposal

• Congressional Budget Process

• Major Negotiations Likely Coming

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Fiscal Outlook in Brief

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Key Policy Issues in Budget Process

• Appropriations / sequestration

• Cuts /changes to CHIP, Medicaid, ACA

• Social Security Disability Insurance

• Expiring improvements in the EITC and CTC

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Deficits Have Fallen Sharply Since Recession

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Major Health Programs including Health Reform Now Projected to Cost Less Than in January 2010 without Health ReformSpending in trillions of dollars, 2011-2020

Note: Baseline projections of Medicare, Medicaid, health insurance subsidies, and Children’s Health Insurance Program for fiscal years 2011-2020. January 2015 projections include actual spending for FY 2011-14.

Source: CBPP analysis based on Congressional Budget Office estimates.

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Recent Policy Savings to Reduce Deficits Largely Come from Program

Cuts

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NDD Spending Falling to Historic Lows:“Road Map of Disinvestment”

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Non-Defense Discretionary Falling After Adjusting for Inflation

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Sequestration Relief Has Been Evenly Divided Between Defense and Non-Defense

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Tax Expenditures Are Very Costly

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Balance Budget in Ten Years

Increase Defense

No New

Revenues

No Major

Savings from

Current Social

Security or

Medicare

Beneficiaries

NDD and Low-Income Entitlements

Likely Architecture of GOP Budgets

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Ryan FY 2015 Budget Priorities

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Budget Process and Timetable

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This Year’s Budget and Health Debate

• February: President released 2016 Budget

• March/April: Congress will pass a budget

resolution. (reconciliation instructions)

• End of March: SGR & CHIP?

• Fall: House/Senate will try to pass a

reconciliation bill; appropriations

process; debt ceiling must be raised

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Reconciliation

• Entitlements

• Simple Majority Passage

• Cuts and Changes

• Debt Ceiling

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Key Threats to Low-Income Households

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Key Threats to HEALTHCARE

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Extension OF CHIP Funding

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House/Senate Republican ACA-Medicaid PlanRoadmap for Reconciliation (King decision)?

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Protecting Tax Credits for Working Families and Veterans in CO

• More than 300,000 CO households received the EITC in CO 2012.

• Nearly that many received refundable part of the Child Tax Credit (CTC).

• 25,000 CO veteran and armed-forces families received the EITC or the refundable part of CTC in 2012.

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Working-Family Tax Credits help at Every Stage of Life

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Single Mother Working Full Time at Minimum Wage With Two Children Would

Lose Entire Child Tax Credit at End of 2017

24*The provision, which expires after 2017, lowers the level of earnings excluded for the purpose of calculating the refundable Child Tax Credit.

Source: CBPP calculations based on Tax Policy Center data

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Principles for Any Budget DEAL

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What Can You Do?• Make your voice heard

• Educate policymakers; hold them

accountable

• Engage in the process in a timely

fashion

• Enlist your allies

• Stay connected: Let us help you -Sign up for CBPP analyses

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