The Reconnection Agenda The Commonwealth Institute, Richmond, VA Jared Bernstein [email protected] 12/3/15.

The Reconnection Agenda

The Commonwealth Institute, Richmond, VA

Jared [email protected]

12/3/15

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The Problem

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Sources: CBO, EPI

The Solutions (slide 3!)

• Full employment– Monetary (the Fed!) – Fiscal policy: taxes/transfers—a very cramped debate – (and their one-two punch)

• Investment in public goods, both physical and human capital

• Better balanced trade

• Labor standards

• Direct job creation

• Kill the “shampoo cycle” (financial market oversight)5

Slack, inequality

Source: BLS, CBO, Census

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Strategies to Reduce Our Trade Deficit

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Oversight of Financial Markets

Getting away from Dysfunction JunctionDOs• Minimum wages ($15? $12?)• Subsidized employment• Apprenticeships/sectoral training• In-state tuition for undoc workers (ahem…)• Medicaid expansion (ahem…)• Fair-chance hiring, juvenile justice reforms• Infrastructure• Work sharing

DON’Ts• RTW• Kansas three-step (tax cuts, shift to sales tax, cut biz tax base)• ACA, Mcaid

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How to get there?• Dysfunction is a tactic

• The cramped tax debate vs. the revenue reality (vs. sequestration)

• “Secular stagnation” breeds intolerance

• Future orientation– Electoral demographics (forcing our issues on the table)– Preferences of nonvoters vs. voters– Jobs of the future, robots??

• The fever must break 11

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Bargaining Power and Opportunity

Jared Bernstein

[email protected]

jaredbernsteinblog.com