Budget and Caseload Update Policy and Fiscal Committee December 6, 2010.

Budget and Caseload Update

Policy and Fiscal CommitteeDecember 6, 2010

Table of Contents

FY11 Caseload OverviewFY11 Projected DeficitFY12 Budget in ProcessARRA Spending

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FY11 Caseload Overview

After the September billing was processed last month, the DTA Related and Income Eligible accounts were reporting a significant decrease in caseload. October billing caseload spending has trended slightly upward. This has impacted the previously projected surplus of $1.14M in the Income Eligible and $232K in the DTA-Related accounts.

Current projections, based on October billing, indicate the projected surplus from the prior month is now a deficiency in the DTA account and almost even in the IE account. A large surplus remains in Supportive.

Reminder: Due to the economic climate, ANF has notified agencies that there are limited resources to address deficiencies through a

supplemental budget in FY11; and agencies must take action to prevent deficiencies in their

accounts. This may mean that EEC is expected to address a deficiency in the DTA account by transferring funds (under the 3% allowable language) from the Income Eligible account.

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FY11 Caseload Overview – Solutions

1. We are closely monitoring caseload. We considered closing access to the Income Eligible account on January 15, 2010, but have opted to review data from one more month.

2. Request full transferability from the Supportive account to the Income Eligible and DTA-Related accounts. Currently, EEC is allowed to transfer money only to the Supportive account. With a $8M projected surplus, Supportive money would eliminate any deficiency currently projected.

3. If solutions 1 and 2 are ultimately insufficient to fully remediate the projected deficiency, EEC may have to close access.

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FY11 Caseload Overview - Summary

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FY2011 Caseload Spending FY2011 Projection

Variance Projection vs.

Budget

Income EligibleContract/Flex $128,556,565 $125,779,252 $2,777,312Voucher $94,941,586 $98,655,021 ($3,713,435)Grants $10,029,276 $9,029,276 $1,000,000

$233,527,427 $233,463,549 $63,878DTAVoucher $127,358,313 $130,437,332 ($3,079,019)SupportiveContract/Flex $74,191,608 $70,694,698 $3,496,910Voucher $10,922,139 $6,404,683 $4,517,456Grants $600,000 $600,000 $0

$85,713,747 $77,699,381 $8,014,366Total $446,599,487 $441,600,263 $4,999,224

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Fiscal Year 2011 Supportive Care (3000-3050)

Month Kids Amount*July 5,993 6,516,395$ *August 5,882 6,492,854$ *September 5,766 6,056,861$ *October 5,267 5,724,683$ November 6,123 6,791,277$ December 6,123 7,099,972$ January 6,071 6,410,295$ February 6,019 6,055,705$ March 5,967 6,907,323$ April 5,895 6,234,957$ May 5,813 6,446,277$ June 5,733 6,362,783$

77,099,381$ 600,000$

77,699,381$ 85,713,747$

8,014,366$ Projected Surplus

GrantsProjected ExpenseAppropriated

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Fiscal Year 2010 DTA Related (3000-4050)

Previous month projected a $233.7K surplus.

Month # of Vouchers Amount*July 17,231 $11,384,565

*August 17,073 $11,534,836*September 16,951 $10,670,860

*October 16,052 $11,232,697November 16,171 $10,874,239December 15,935 $11,202,661January 15,685 $10,067,739February 15,899 $9,719,110

March 16,118 $11,330,762April 16,441 $10,552,705May 16,199 $10,892,847June 16,270 $10,974,311

$130,437,332$127,358,313

(3,079,019)$ *Actual Amount

Amount Appropriated

DTA Related Caseload (3000-4050)

Projected Deficiency

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Fiscal Year 2010 Income Eligible (3000-4060)

Month # of kids Amount # of kids Amount # of Kids Amount

Jul 18,618 9,726,328$ 15,977 10,187,406$ 34,595 19,913,734$

Aug 18,294 9,678,687$ 16,097 10,196,586$ 34,391 19,875,273$

Sep 17,575 8,287,884$ 17,007 10,136,690$ 34,582 18,424,574$

Oct 16,416 9,000,221$ 16,251 9,923,914$ 32,667 18,924,135$

Nov 16,116 8,344,078$ 16,821 10,468,961$ 32,937 18,813,039$

Dec 15,765 8,532,229$ 16,933 11,017,301$ 32,698 19,549,530$

Jan 15,632 7,729,307$ 17,055 10,131,754$ 32,687 17,861,061$

Feb 15,463 7,284,557$ 17,183 9,721,769$ 32,646 17,006,326$

Mar 14,925 8,080,274$ 17,294 11,252,513$ 32,219 19,332,787$

Apr 14,618 7,231,174$ 17,416 10,346,513$ 32,034 17,577,687$

May 14,368 7,444,472$ 17,533 10,911,683$ 31,901 18,356,155$

Jun 14,118 7,315,810$ 18,452 11,484,162$ 32,570 18,799,972$

98,655,021$ 125,779,252$ 224,434,273$

9,029,276$

233,463,549$

233,527,427$

63,878$

Total Forecasted Spending

FY11 Appropriated

Project Amount Available

Vouchers Contracts/Flex Total Population

Grants

PAC was adopted by the legislature, which increased the appropriation from $228.5 million to $233.5 million.

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FY11 Caseload: Waitlist

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Waiting List Category Infants Toddler Preschool School Age TotalChild of Foster Care 13 27 15 33 88 Child of Homeless family 16 46 42 41 145 Child of Military Personnel 6 9 5 3 23 Child of Teen Parent 79 23 5 1 108 Child with Special Needs 34 144 160 346 684 Continuity of Care: Aging Out 1 3 2 117 123

Continuity of Care: Approved Break in Service - 11 8 30 49

Continuity of Care: Child Left Care within 3 Months

5 20 29 70 124

Continuity of Care: Geographic Relocation 1 4 16 19 40 Continuity of Care: Homeless Contract - 1 1 1 3 Continuity of Care: NTCC - - - 1 1 Continuity of Care: Supportive Referral 5 18 27 29 79 Continuity of Care: Teen Parent Contract 3 8 8 2 21 General Priority 2,748 4,109 3,582 4,642 15,081 Grandparent/Guardian Families 20 47 54 130 251 Parent with Special Needs 32 86 85 141 344 Sibling: Contract 54 29 19 78 180 Sibling: Voucher 112 32 12 144 300 Summer only care 17 7 13 408 445 Grand Total 3,146 4,624 4,083 6,236 18,089

* As of November 30, 2010

FY12 Budget in Process Board Approved Budget

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Line Item Descriptor FY11 FY12

MaintenanceFY12 Proposed

Budget

Diff from FY12 Proposed and

FY11

3000-1000 Administration $ 11,417,421 $ 11,752,280 $ 12,101,394 $ 683,973

3000-2000Access Management $ 5,933,862 $ 6,083,862 $ 6,083,862 $ 150,000

3000-3050 Supportive $ 85,713,529 $ 92,767,752 $ 92,767,534 $ 7,054,005

3000-4050TANF Related Child Care $ 127,358,313 $ 141,344,249 $ 136,244,249 $ 8,885,936

3000-4060Low Income Eligible Child $ 233,527,605 $ 230,593,574 $ 234,929,254 $ 1,401,649

3000-5000Grants to Head Start $ 7,500,000 $ 7,500,000 $ 7,500,000 $ -

3000-5075 UPK $ 7,500,000 $ 7,500,000 $ 7,500,000 $ -

3000-6000 Quality Supports $ 14,011,633 $ 14,011,633 $ 18,511,633 $ 4,500,000

3000-6075 Mental Health $ 750,000 $ 750,000 $ 1,000,000 $ 250,000

3000-7050Family Supports and Engagement $ 5,000,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 5,000,000 $ -

498,712,363$ 517,303,350$ 521,637,926$ 22,925,563$

FY12 Budget in Process – Guiding Principles

1. Building Quality Infrastructure in Admin Account Director of Community Partnership and

Outreach Two (2) Fiscal Monitors

2. Support QRIS Activities

3. Return Mental Health (3000-6075) to FY10 Funding Level

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ARRA Spending Update

A chart with expenditure figures updated as of close of business on Friday, December 3, will be made available during the meeting.

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