Breaking the Breaking the Hydro Hydro- illogical illogical Cycle: Cycle: Progress or Progress or Status Quo for Status Quo for Drought Drought Management in the Management in the U.S.? U.S.? Donald A. Wilhite, Director School of Natural Resources Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle: An Institutional Challenge Crisis Managemen t
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Breaking the Breaking the HydroHydro--illogical illogical
Cycle:Cycle:
Progress or Progress or Status Quo for Status Quo for
Drought Drought Management in the Management in the
U.S.?U.S.?
Donald A. Wilhite, Director
School of Natural Resources
Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle:An Institutional Challenge
Crisis Managemen
t
Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle
• Accepting drought as a normal part of climate.
Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle
• Accepting drought as a normal part of climate.
• Adopting a pro-active (preparedness) vs. reactive (crisis management) approach for drought
management.
• Understanding drought impacts as an indicator of
vulnerability.
– Vulnerability assessment is a crucial element of drought planning.
Drought impacts today are more complex since more economic
sectors are affected, creating more conflicts between water
users.
Breaking the Hydro-illogical Cycle
• Accepting drought as a normal part of climate.
• Adopting a pro-active (preparedness) vs. reactive (crisis management) approach for drought
management.
• Understanding drought impacts as an indicator of
vulnerability.
– Vulnerability assessment is a crucial element of drought planning.
• Understanding society as dynamic—each drought
event is different and superimposed over existing
societal characteristics.
– Impacts reflect changing vulnerabilities; the need
for adaptation and mitigation.
Population Growth (% change, 1990-2000)
The Cycle of Disaster ManagementThe Cycle of Disaster Management
Adopting a new paradigm for drought management!
Progress Towards Drought Risk Management in the U.S.
• Widespread drought conditions/serious and diverse
impacts—late 1980s to early 1990s.
Progress Towards Drought Risk Management in the U.S.
• Widespread drought conditions/serious and diverse
impacts—late 1980s to early 1990s.
• Formation of the National Drought Mitigation Center
in 1995.
– Catalyst for change
– Program emphasis� Vulnerability ReductionVulnerability Reduction
• Improved monitoring and awareness
• Risk/vulnerability assessment
• Mitigation planning and policy development
• National Drought Policy Act, 1998.
• National Drought Policy Commission Report, 2000.
Progress Towards Drought Risk Management in the U.S.
• National Drought Preparedness Act
– Introduced in U.S. Congress in 2001, 2003, and 2005.
• Concept of National Integrated Drought Information
System (NIDIS) proposed in 2004.
• Passage of the NIDIS bill by Congress, 2006.
• Continued widespread, severe drought to present
has kept drought as a national focus.
• Climatic trends in west (warming, reduced snowpack,
water scarcity).
• IPCC 2007 report—more frequent, severe droughts of longer duration.
Moving towards a more risk-based management approach
• Components of effective drought planning
– Monitoring, comprehensive and integrated early warning systems, and effective/timely delivery systems.
– Risk assessment to identify vulnerable groups, sectors,
and regions
– Mitigation measures identified and implemented.
– Policy development to drive behavioral change at all
levels.
• Elements for success
– Awareness—public and political
– Political will/support
– Stakeholder recognition of the need for change.
Support for RISK-BASED DROUGHT MITIGATION PLANNING . . . .
has been from the BOTTOM UP!
State/Local/Tribal
Regional
Federal
Response Mitigation
Increasing need for timely, reliable climate/water supply assessments
Increasing need for higher resolution analysis for policy/decision support
Increasing need for more reliable seasonal forecasts/outlooks
Progress has been impressive . . . .
more products on the way!
Drought Monitoring at the Continental Scale
Assessing and Archiving Impacts
The progression to drought mitigation planning . . . . .
Demand for mitigation
planning
Development of new
monitoring tools
a synergistic relationship!!
National Integrated Drought Information System
NIDIS
2004 2007
(social factors)
Widely adopted as the new paradigm for drought
management.
Drought Management in the U.S.: Next Steps!
• NIDIS provides an opportunity to improve our drought
early warning system, linking federal, state, and local efforts, it also provides the opportunity to:
– Build greater resilience to drought through improve
planning and adaptation.
• More emphasis on drought mitigation planning.
• Federal government needs to provide leadership/incentives.
– Increase emphasis on risk management to lessen
the need for reactive, costly response measures.
• Mitigation is more cost-effective than emergency response.
– Form a coherent national drought policy that ultimately reduces societal vulnerability.