A Modest Attempt to Take the "I" out of the “Hydro- Illogical” Cycle Harvey Hill 1, Terry Rolfe 2, Elaine Wheaton 3, Richard Lawford 4, John Pomeroy 5,

A Modest Attempt to Take A Modest Attempt to Take the "I" out of the “Hydro-the "I" out of the “Hydro-

Illogical” CycleIllogical” CycleHarvey Hill Harvey Hill 11, , Terry Rolfe Terry Rolfe 22, , Elaine Wheaton Elaine Wheaton 33, , Richard Richard Lawford Lawford 44, , John Pomeroy John Pomeroy 55, , Ronald Stewart Ronald Stewart 66, , Nancy Nancy

Lee Lee 77

CMOS Congress, Kelowna,CMOS Congress, Kelowna,May 28, 2008May 28, 2008

11 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2 2 Consultant, Saskatchewan Research Council, Consultant, Saskatchewan Research Council, 44 Drought Research Iniatitive, Drought Research Iniatitive, 55 University of Saskatchewan, University of Saskatchewan, 66 Mcgill University, Mcgill University, 77 Agrculture Agrculture and Agri-Food Canadaand Agri-Food CanadaContact: [email protected]: [email protected]

The ProblemThe Problem

The inefficiencies of current drought The inefficiencies of current drought preparation and response are recognized preparation and response are recognized (Wilhite and Pulwarty, 2005).(Wilhite and Pulwarty, 2005). During the crisis significant resources are During the crisis significant resources are

allocated but cease when the crisis ends.allocated but cease when the crisis ends. Consequently Consequently

Knowledge is lost, Knowledge is lost, Opportunities for advanced preparation are Opportunities for advanced preparation are

squandered, and squandered, and Resources are wasted.Resources are wasted.

This process has been facetiously described as the

“El Ninny Effect”

or the

Hydro-illogical cycle.

Normally the government drifts along at about 8,000 m

Every few years there’s a drought. When it gets really bad, it suddenly rains politicians, experts and media.

They form pools of expertise and funding to cope with the drought cycle

As soon as the good years return, they evaporate back to 8,000 m

Why Does This Occur?Why Does This Occur?

Resources are allocated to the most Resources are allocated to the most clear and present danger.clear and present danger.

When it rainsWhen it rains the sense of vulnerability the sense of vulnerability to drought diminishes dramatically.to drought diminishes dramatically.

Risk = Vulnerability x Hazard Risk = Vulnerability x Hazard (drought)(drought)

Yet we save for retirement when we Yet we save for retirement when we expect our working income stream expect our working income stream will suffer a drought? will suffer a drought?

What is the difference?What is the difference?

Could it Be Advertising?Could it Be Advertising?

http://employeeretirementplans.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/retirement.jpg

The Mutual Fund Industry keeps most of us The Mutual Fund Industry keeps most of us at a healthy level of guilt regarding our at a healthy level of guilt regarding our retirement finances.retirement finances.

Is there any equivalent form of advertising Is there any equivalent form of advertising for drought?for drought?

Are there any mechanisms to convert that Are there any mechanisms to convert that process into tangible proactive responses?process into tangible proactive responses?

Our international competitors and Our international competitors and colleagues do.colleagues do.

Many Have Adopted a Risk Many Have Adopted a Risk Awareness Vs. Crisis Management Awareness Vs. Crisis Management

ApproachApproach

http://www.drought.unl.edu/MONITOR/EWS/ch3_Laughlin.pdf

GLOBAL PRECIPITATION ANOMALY: 2002

PRECIPITATION DEFICITS in 2002

FRACTION OF NORMAL (%)

One Small Step to Address The One Small Step to Address The Challenge Challenge

Develop a process to Develop a process to assess current assess current drought preparedness.drought preparedness.

Assess preparedness to future resultsAssess preparedness to future results Utilize results of assessments to Utilize results of assessments to

improve understanding and to improve understanding and to reduce drought vulnerability or reduce drought vulnerability or increase resiliencyincrease resiliency..

The PlayersThe Players

With their Partnership Advisory Committee

Drought Preparedness Drought Preparedness Assessment ExerciseAssessment Exercise

A “war game” or A “war game” or simulation to simulation to assess the assess the preparedness of preparedness of organizations and organizations and regions to droughts regions to droughts of varying of varying intensities.intensities.

ExampleExample Host a retreat where a group of people Host a retreat where a group of people

responsible for drought response walk through responsible for drought response walk through a recent drought in cross sections:a recent drought in cross sections: A range of physical and social information at A range of physical and social information at

each cross section is providedeach cross section is provided

Then Assess:Then Assess: If they could respond more, or less, If they could respond more, or less,

effectively now.effectively now. Could the response be different if advances Could the response be different if advances

in our knowledge could be provided earlier in our knowledge could be provided earlier or in a new format.or in a new format.

If the same drought were to occur 30 years If the same drought were to occur 30 years from now with anticipated physical and from now with anticipated physical and socio-economic trends would the current socio-economic trends would the current responses and preparedness be sufficient?responses and preparedness be sufficient?

Would proactive adaptation and Would proactive adaptation and mitigation efforts be required?mitigation efforts be required?

DROUGHT RESEARCH INITIATIVE

The objectives of DRI are:

To better understand the physical characteristics of and processes influencing Canadian Prairie droughts, and

To contribute to their better prediction To contribute to societal concerns regarding

drought

Strategy:

Focus on the recent severe drought that began in 1999 and largely ended in 2005

Score CardScore Card At the end of the exercise the assessment At the end of the exercise the assessment

produces a “Score Card” of relative produces a “Score Card” of relative readiness for a drought of equivalent readiness for a drought of equivalent intensity now and in the future.intensity now and in the future.

This “Score Card” approach can then open This “Score Card” approach can then open the dialogue as to the proactive the dialogue as to the proactive investments that could have the highest investments that could have the highest value in the short term.value in the short term.

It also helps condition the discussion as to:It also helps condition the discussion as to: The longer term investments that may be The longer term investments that may be

required, required, The institutional adjustments that may The institutional adjustments that may

need to be done, and need to be done, and The areas that require further research or The areas that require further research or

technical transfer. technical transfer.

Factors To Consider In The Factors To Consider In The Score CardScore Card

MonitoringMonitoring ReportingReporting ForecastingForecasting AdaptationAdaptation MitigationMitigation ResponseResponse Economic implications of proactive Economic implications of proactive

investment versus ad hoc responseinvestment versus ad hoc response

Where Could this Go?Where Could this Go?

Currently the approach is being developedCurrently the approach is being developed

As it is refined the types of droughts can be As it is refined the types of droughts can be expanded to address expanded to address other droughtsother droughts and and multi-decadalmulti-decadal droughts that Sauchyn and droughts that Sauchyn and others have identified as threats.others have identified as threats.

It could become a standard part of Canada’s It could become a standard part of Canada’s adaptation activities as it addresses the adaptation activities as it addresses the public’s concerns regarding longer term public’s concerns regarding longer term climate trends.climate trends.

The approach if institutionalized could The approach if institutionalized could support the efficient allocation of resources support the efficient allocation of resources to reduce Canadians’ vulnerability and to reduce Canadians’ vulnerability and enhance their resiliency to drought.enhance their resiliency to drought.

Internationally Internationally

Canada does not (and should not) address Canada does not (and should not) address droughts in isolation. droughts in isolation.

This mechanism could provide a basis for This mechanism could provide a basis for improving North America’s drought improving North America’s drought monitoring activities.monitoring activities.

It could also provide a basis for common It could also provide a basis for common dialogue on cross-border drought dialogue on cross-border drought preparation and responses with the United preparation and responses with the United States and Mexico.States and Mexico.

It might provide the first step towards a It might provide the first step towards a more integrated approach such as the NOAA more integrated approach such as the NOAA RISA program.RISA program.

http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/brochure.pdf

Droughts are an inherent aspect of Canada’s climate.

Let’s ensure that we are ready for them!

ReferencesReferences Sauchyn, D.J. 2005. A 250-Year Climate Sauchyn, D.J. 2005. A 250-Year Climate

and and Human History of Prairie Drought. Human History of Prairie Drought. In In Sauchyn, D.J., Khandekar, M, and Sauchyn, D.J., Khandekar, M, and

Garnett, Garnett, E.R. (eds.) “The Science , E.R. (eds.) “The Science , Impacts and Impacts and Monitoring of Drought in Monitoring of Drought in Western Canada: Western Canada: Proceedings for the Proceedings for the Canadian Prairie Drought Canadian Prairie Drought Workshop”, Workshop”, Calgary, Alberta, May 26-28, Calgary, Alberta, May 26-28, 2004. 2004.

Wilhite, D.A. and R.S. Pulwarty. “Lessons Wilhite, D.A. and R.S. Pulwarty. “Lessons Learned and the Road Ahead.” Learned and the Road Ahead.”

Chapter 15, Chapter 15, Drought and Water Crises, Drought and Water Crises, D.A. Wilhite Ed. D.A. Wilhite Ed. Taylor and Francis, Taylor and Francis, 2005.2005.

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