Version: 1.1 First created: 01/06/2009 Updated: 18/06/2010 http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk Last reviewed: 18/06/2010 1 of 24 0845 600 8951 BNPAC KO01: Air Conditioning Units Government Standards Evidence Base 2009: Key Outputs Version 1.1 This Briefing Note and referenced information is a public consultation document and will be used to inform Government decisions. The information and analysis forms part of the Evidence Base created by Defra’s Market Transformation Programme. 1 Introduction • The aim of this Briefing Note is to provide a year-by-year summary of the main outputs from the Market Transformation Programme (MTP) 2009 models. • There are four main sections to this Briefing Note, corresponding to the main outputs from the MTP modelling: o Stock o Sales o Energy Consumption o Government Standards – Charts and Tables
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Version: 1.1 First created: 01/06/2009 Updated: 18/06/2010 http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk Last reviewed: 18/06/2010 1 of 24 0845 600 8951
BNPAC KO01: Air Conditioning Units Government Standards Evidence Base 2009: Key Outputs
Version 1.1
This Briefing Note and referenced information is a public consultation document and will be used to inform Government decisions. The information and analysis forms part of the Evidence Base created by Defra’s Market Transformation Programme.
1 Introduction
• The aim of this Briefing Note is to provide a year-by-year summary of the main outputs from the Market Transformation Programme (MTP) 2009 models.
• There are four main sections to this Briefing Note, corresponding to the main outputs from the MTP modelling:
o Stock o Sales o Energy Consumption o Government Standards – Charts and Tables
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2 Stock
• The following table details the MTP modelling outputs in terms of UK installed base of products:
Table 1 - Air Conditioning, Chiller and Air Handling Units Stock (All Scenarios)
Stock (000s)
Packaged AC Units Central Plant AC Units
Moveables Indoor Window Close Ctrl Rooftop D-Splits Minisplits Air Chiller Wat Chiller Abs Chiller AHU FCU Totals
• In all cases, the stock are estimated and do not refer to actual market data. They are outputs based upon sales and lifetime inputs.
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3 Sales • The following table details the MTP modelling outputs in terms of annual UK sales:
Table 2 - Air Conditioning, Chiller and Air Handling Units Sales
Sales (‘000s)
Packaged AC Units Central Plant AC Units
Moveables Indoor Window Close Ctrl
Rooftop D-Splits Minisplits Air Chiller Wat Chiller
Abs Chiller
AHU FCU Totals
2000 54 1 4 8 2 0 149 2 0 0 11 119 350
2001 55 2 4 9 3 0 153 2 0 0 11 87 326
2002 54 2 4 7 3 0 148 2 0 0 16 109 345
2003 70 9 5 5 4 0 157 2 0 0 15 77 344
2004 104 10 5 7 2 0 190 2 0 0 16 65 401
2005 92 7 5 6 1 0 184 2 0 0 14 61 372
2006 50 7 5 6 2 0 221 2 0 0 16 59 368
2007 88 6 2 8 2 0 221 3 0 0 15 69 414
2008 52 5 2 9 2 0 168 3 0 0 13 62 316
2009 47 4 2 7 2 0 149 2 0 0 12 56 281
2010 51 4 1 7 2 0 172 2 0 0 12 56 307
2011 56 4 1 7 2 0 215 2 0 0 12 58 357
2012 62 4 1 8 2 0 258 2 0 0 13 60 410
2013 63 4 1 7 2 0 348 2 0 0 13 61 501
2014 63 4 1 7 2 0 370 3 0 0 13 62 525
2015 64 4 1 7 2 0 390 3 0 0 13 62 546
2016 64 5 1 7 2 0 408 3 0 0 14 64 568
2017 65 5 1 7 3 0 423 3 0 0 14 65 586
2018 66 5 1 7 3 0 438 3 0 0 14 67 604
2019 66 5 1 7 3 0 451 3 0 0 14 69 619
2020 67 5 1 7 3 0 464 3 0 0 13 70 633
2021 68 5 1 7 4 0 475 3 0 0 13 72 648
2022 68 5 1 8 4 0 486 3 0 0 13 74 662
2023 69 6 1 8 4 0 496 3 0 0 13 76 676
2024 70 6 1 8 4 0 506 3 0 0 13 78 689
2025 70 6 1 8 4 0 515 3 0 0 12 80 699
2026 71 6 1 8 5 0 523 3 0 0 12 82 711
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Moveables Indoor Window Close Ctrl
Rooftop D-Splits Minisplits Air Chiller Wat Chiller
Abs Chiller
AHU FCU Totals
2027 72 6 1 8 5 0 531 3 0 0 12 84 722
2028 73 6 0 8 5 0 539 3 0 0 12 86 732
2029 73 6 0 8 6 0 547 3 0 0 12 88 743
2030 74 6 0 8 6 0 554 3 0 0 11 90 752
• Historical sales data has been based on available market data and future extrapolation based on expert opinion as to the likely evolution of the market.
• Cells shaded orange is reported data that has been directly taken from BSRIA Reports 13A for window, indoor and moveable air-conditioning units; 13B for split units; 13C for large packaged and close control units; 6A for chillers; and 6B for airside products.
• Cells shaded peach is forecast data, constructed by BSRIA in Reports 13A for window, indoor and moveable air-conditioning units; 13B for split units; 13C for large packaged and close control units; 6A for chillers; and 6B for airside products.
• Please refer to the relevant Key Inputs GSBN for further details of actual sales/stock data used to calibrate the model.
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4 Energy Consumption1
• The following tables detail the MTP modelling outputs in terms of annual UK energy consumption.
• Note: The policy energy consumption corresponds to the Government standards. All scenarios are the same until 2009. The scenarios diverge in 2010 under the Reference scenario, which takes into account legislation affecting the market that is already in force and the Policy scenario that models the effect of Building Regulations, EuP and ECA on the market; against a comparison of the Best Available Technology for each product.
Table 3 - Air Conditioning, Chiller and Air Handling Units Reference Scenario Energy Consumption
Energy Consumption (GWh) – Reference Scenario
Packaged AC Units Central Plant AC Units
Moveables Indoor Window Close Ctrl Rooftop D-Splits Minisplits Air Chiller Wat Chiller Abs Chiller AHU FCU Totals
1 Energy consumption figures for the non-domestic sector in the ‘Product policy analysis and projections 2010’ document were scaled down to match DECC projections for overall
energy demand (www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/statistics/publications/dukes/dukes.aspx). MTP data represents the best currently available information based on a bottom-up modelling approach. MTP’s data is the basis for detailed energy calculations in the ‘Product policy analysis and projections 2010’ document. However, DECC projections indicate that overall energy demand in the non-domestic sector is lower than projected by MTP’s detailed models. MTP has assumed that the differences between the DECC overall projections and its detailed bottom-up projections are due to incomplete data on the following inputs for some of its non-domestic products:
• existing product stock;
• existing product efficiency;
• product usage. The energy consumption figures in these GSBNs have not been scaled down, in order to enable constructive stakeholder comment on the MTP input data, and therefore differ from
the ones presented in the ‘Product policy analysis and projections 2010’ document.
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Moveables Indoor Window Close Ctrl Rooftop D-Splits Minisplits Air Chiller Wat Chiller Abs Chiller AHU FCU Totals
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4.1 Differences in energy consumption compared to last published figures
• The local air conditioning market (moveables, indoor units, window and through-wall units) energy consumption is modelled showing a decrease for moveable and window/through wall products compared to last year. In the short term, this is due to uncertainty in the incidence of warm summers, which heavily affect the sales of these products. In the longer term, the projections show a decrease compared to last year’s models for these two products. However indoor air conditioners are modelled to increase energy consumption by a significant amount due to popularity in commercial applications.
• The projection for close control unit energy consumption shows a decline compared to the previous model. This is due to data available from BSRIA2 this year that indicates fewer sales between 2000 and 2009, and therefore a lower volume of stock. However, the trend of lower energy consumption continues as units are modelled with tighter efficiency requirements as a result of EuP legislation as well as market incentives such as ECA supporting more efficient products.
• The energy consumption of the rooftop unit is modelled to increase compared to the previous years’ projections. This is largely due to significant growth in the sales projections this year.
• The splits market (ducted- and mini-) demonstrates significantly less energy consumption than in the previous model. Again, this is due to better resolution of the actual number of units sold from 2000 to 2009 from BSRIA, and the resulting energy consumption of the installed stock in these years. Ducted split energy consumption is projected to significantly decline as competing technologies such as minisplits displace them in the market and the ducted split market becomes one largely for replacement. Minisplits, although experiencing considerable growth in sales compared to the previous model, are modelled to have lower energy consumption due to the effects of the tight efficiency metric modelled in the Reference Scenario.
• Water cooled and absorption chillers increase in energy consumption compared to the previous year’s model. This is also due to more accurate sales data for the years 2000 to 2009 from BSRIA. This indicates that water-cooled and absorption chillers (especially water-cooled chillers) displace air-cooled chiller market share due to improvements in efficiency and mandates on specific fan power.
2 Sales data was based upon market analysis by BSRIA, which included actual number of units sold and a short-term (2009-12) forecast of sales. The documents used were BSRIA
50571; 6A Chillers; 6B Airside Products; 13A Windows and Moveables; 13B Splits; 13C Large Packaged and Close Control Units
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5 Government Standards
• As part of its commitments in May 2007’s Energy White Paper, the government, via its Market Transformation Programme, is obliged to “publish a series of consultation papers setting out [its] analysis of how the performance of energy-using products will need to improve over the next 10-20 years, including proposals for product standards and targets to phase out the least efficient products”
• The Government recently published its ‘Product policy analysis and projections 2010’ document. The product standards which would achieve the Policy Scenario for products in the Air Conditioning Products Annexe of this document are given below. These are represented in both graphical and tabular form, in order to be helpful to a wide range of audiences.
5.1 Charts
● The following charts illustrate the expected market distribution over time of the products addressed against the relevant efficiency metric for that product. Coefficient of Performance (CoP) is used for heat pumps whilst an efficiency metric has been used for fan-driven systems (AHUs and FCUs). The efficiency metric for AHUs is simply an efficiency (expressed equally as a decimal or percentage point, e.g. 0.8 and 80%). Due to the difficulties in constructing efficiency metrics for the FCU market, given that fans of various sizes and efficiencies are employed in FCUs and that the actual energy consumption is a small proportion of the total energy delivered to the unit, it was determined that ‘dummy’ efficiencies would be used. These were input with the Reference scenario given an efficiency index (CoP) of 1.00 and so the Policy and BAT scenarios would have indices scaled proportionately to the efficiency index in the Reference case. Therefore, for example, in the Policy scenario an efficiency of 1.05 would actually refer to a 5% improvement in efficiency above that achieved in the Reference scenario.
• Exact presentation of these charts will vary between product areas, due to variation in efficiency metric applicable.
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Figure 1 - Expected evolution of efficiencies for air-cooled chillers under the Reference and Policy Scenarios
Reference Scenario
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
<100kW 100-500kW 500-700kW >700kWSize
Co
P
2009 2010 2020 2030 Policy Scenario
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
<100kW 100-500kW 500-700kW >700kWSize
Co
P
2009 2010 2020 2030
Figure 2 - Expected evolution of efficiencies for water-cooled chillers under the Reference and Policy Scenarios
Reference Scenario
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.3
<100kW 100-500kW 500-700kW >700kW
Size
Co
P
2009 2010 2020 2030 Policy Scenario
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.3
<100kW 100-500kW 500-700kW >700kW
Size
Co
P
2009 2010 2020 2030
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Figure 3 - Expected evolution of efficiencies for absorption chillers under the Reference and Policy Scenarios
Reference Scenario
0.54
0.56
0.58
0.6
0.62
0.64
0.66
0.68
0.7
0.72
All Absorption Chillers
CoP
2009 2010 2020 2030 Policy Scenario
0.54
0.56
0.58
0.6
0.62
0.64
0.66
0.68
0.7
0.72
All Absorption Chillers
CoP
2009 2010 2020 2030
Figure 4 - Expected evolution of efficiencies for AHUs and FCUs under the Reference and Policy Scenarios
Reference Scenario
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
AHUs FCUs Product
Eff
icie
ncy
2009 2010 2020 2030
Policy Scenario
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
AHUs FCUs Product
Eff
icie
ncy
2009 2010 2020 2030
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Figure 5 - Expected evolution of efficiencies for Local and Room Air Conditioning Units under the Reference and Policy Scenarios
Reference Scenario
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
Indoors and Ducted
Splits
Windows, Moveables
and Rooftops
Close Control Minisplits
Product
Co
P2009 2010 2020 2030
Policy Scenario
2.1
2.6
3.1
3.6
4.1
4.6
Indoors, Windows
and Moveables
Close Control Rooftop and Ducted
Splits
MinisplitsProduct
Co
P
2009 2010 2020 2030
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5.2 Tables
• The market distributions illustrated in the previous section, translate to measurements of average sales efficiency over time (stated in terms of efficiency, power consumption or efficiency formulae for example).
• The following tables illustrate the profile of CoPs and efficiencies under the Policy scenario consumption over time of the products addressed. Note: These tables reflect one possible mix of sales distributions to achieve the government standards.
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Table 6 – Local and Room Air Conditioning Units - Government Standard Average CoP
CoP Indoor Moveables Rooftops and Ducted Splits Minisplits
Table 10 – Air Handling and Fan Coil Units - Government Standard Average Efficiencies (as defined in Section 5.1)
AHUs (in kW by class in m3/s) FCUs
Year <1.53m3/s 1.54-2.36m3/s 2.37-4.25m3/s 4.26-6.61m3/s 6.62-9.44m3/s 9.45-18.9m3/s >18.9m3/s All
2000 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 1.00
2001 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 1.00
2002 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 1.00
2003 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 1.00
2004 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 1.00
2005 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 1.00
2006 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 1.00
2007 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 1.00
2008 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 1.00
2009 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 1.05
2010 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 1.05
2011 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 1.05
2012 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 1.05
2013 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 1.05
2014 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 1.05
2015 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.05
2016 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.05
2017 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.05
2018 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.05
2019 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.05
2020 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.05
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AHUs (in kW by class in m3/s) FCUs
Year <1.53m3/s 1.54-2.36m3/s 2.37-4.25m3/s 4.26-6.61m3/s 6.62-9.44m3/s 9.45-18.9m3/s >18.9m3/s All
2021 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.05
2022 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.05
2023 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.05
2024 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.05
2025 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.05
2026 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.05
2027 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.05
2028 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.05
2029 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.05
2030 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.05
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Related MTP information
• BNCAC 01 Central Air Conditioning Plant Government Standards Evidence Base 2009: Key Inputs
• BNCAC 02 Central Air Conditioning Plant Government Standards Evidence Base 2009: Reference Scenario
• BNCAC 03 Central Air Conditioning Plant Government Standards Evidence Base 2009: Policy Scenario
• BNCAC 04 Central Air Conditioning Plant Government Standards Evidence Base 2009: Best Available Technology Scenario
• BNPAC01 Package Air Conditioning Units Government Standards Evidence Base 2009: Key Inputs
• BNPAC02 Package Air Conditioning Units Government Standards Evidence Base 2009: Reference Scenario
• BNPAC03 Package Air Conditioning Units Government Standards Evidence Base 2009: Policy Scenario
• BNPAC04 Package Air Conditioning Units Government Standards Evidence Base 2009: Best Available Technology ScenarioJ
Changes from previous version
• Minor changes to the template.
Consultation and further information
Stakeholders are encouraged to review this document and provide suggestions that may improve the quality of information provided, email [email protected] quoting the document reference, or call the MTP enquiry line on +44 (0) 845 600 8951. For further information on related issues visit http://efficient-products.defra.gov.uk