A World of Hurt - Research Tuesday 2010

Name of Faculty, School or Division

12th May, 2009

A World of Hurt

Global death count of

environmental degradation

Professor Corey J. A. BradshawThe Environment Institute &

South Australian Research & Development Institute

© WWF

1. the Anthropocene mass extinction event

2. extinction synergies

3. ecosystem services

4. fine-scale evidence: environment-health

5. global-scale evidence:

sick environment = sick people

© WWF

• > 4 million protists

• 16600 protozoa

• 75000-300000 helminth parasites

• 1.5 million fungi

• 320000 plants

• 4-6 million arthropods

• > 6500 amphibians

• > 30000 fishes

• 10000 birds

• > 5000 mammals

99 % of ALL species that have ever existed...

EXTINCTspecies lifespan = 1-10 M years

Ordovician (490-443 MYA)

Devonian (417-354 MYA)

Permian (299-250 MYA)

Triassic (251-200 MYA)

Cretaceous (146-64 MYA)

Anthropoceneextinction rate 100-10000 background

Crutzen 2002 Nature 415:23; Bradshaw & Brook 2009 J Cosmol 2:221-229© T

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• 1,011,000 km2 lost 2000-2005 (3.1 %; 0.6 %/year)• highest in boreal biome (60 %)• humid tropics next (Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia)• dry tropics next highest (Australia, Brazil, Argentina)• N.A. greatest proportional lost by continent• Nationally, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, DR Congo

• 21 % of all known mammals• 30 % of all known amphibians• 12 % of all known birds• 35 % of conifers & cycads• 17 % of sharks• 27 % of reef-building corals

threatened with extinction

IUCN RED LIST OF THREATENED SPECIES www.iucnredlist.org

Sodhi et al. 2008 PLoS One 3:e1636

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)Sodhi, Brook & Bradshaw 2007 Tropical Conservation Biology Wiley-Blackwell

© C. Sekerçioglu

Halpern et al. 2008 Science 319:948-952

deforestation, soil erosion, sediment & nutrient loading

destructive fishing practices

overfishing

invasive species and starfish outbreaks

bleaching

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Field et al. 2009 Fish & Fisheries 10:323-328

1. habitat destruction

2. over-exploitation

3. introduced species

4. extinction cascades

Diamond 1984 Extinctions Chicago University Press

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1. habitat destruction

2. over-exploitation

3. introduced species

4. extinction cascades

5. climate change

Evil quintet

6. synergies

Evil sextet

Brook et al. 2008 Trends Ecol Evol 25:453-460

© Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

justification to maintain healthy ecosystems is intangible because it seems unrelated to personal well-being

• reduce desertification• maintain soils• crop pollination• seed dispersal• food provision• water purification• fuel provision• fibre provision• climate regulation• flood regulation• disease regulation• waste decomposition/detoxification• nutrient cycling• soil formation• primary production• pharmaceutical sources• cultural appreciation (aesthetic, spiritual, educational, recreational…)

• €50 billion lost/year• land-based ecosystem loss €545 billion by 2010

• > €14 trillion/year lost by 2050

Cost of Policy Inaction (COPI):The case of not meeting the 2010 biodiversity target.

European Commission

€153 billion/year

fisheries: €50 billion/year

Bradshaw et al. 2007 Glob Change Biol 13:2379-2395

1990-2000• ~100,000 people killed• 320 million people displaced• total reported damages > US$1151 billion

Ohl & Tapsell 2000 Br Med J 321:1167-1168; Ivers & Ryan 2006 Curr Op Infect Dis 19:408-414

• schistosomiasis

• malaria

• leptospirosis

• dysentery

• cholera

• hepatitis

• typhus

increased host habitat availability & displacement of humans to areas where inadequate sanitation and temporary high-density living promote disease

© http://tropicaltoxic.blogspot.com

Does a sick environment make sick people?

• physician-assessed morbidity declines with more green spaces near Dutch patients

Maas et al. 2009 J Epidemiol Comm Health 63:967-973

• dioxin-poisoning accident in Milan – increased circulatory disease, lymphoma, pulmonary disease & diabetes 25 years later

Consonni et al. 2008 Am J Epidemiol 167:847-858

• low water quality, poor sanitation & indoor air pollution from household solid fuels increased child mortality and reduced life expectancy in Mexico

Stevens et al. 2009 Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:16860-16865

• malaria-vector mosquito bite rates 278 higher in deforested sites in Amazon

Vittor et al. 2006 Am J Trop Med Hyg 74:3-11

• Anopheline mosquito density after deforestation in 60% of 60 studies over past century; 70 % of cases incidence of malaria

Yasuoka & Levins 2007 Am J Trop Med Hyg 76:450-460

habitat conversion/CO2 emissions- transmission of infectious zoonoses across forest-agriculture boundaries

fertilisers- nitrate intake & cancer- water contamination- water acidification- toxic algae blooms- cholera outbreaks- mosquito disease vectors

air & water quality- toxins/pollutants

- pathogens- particulates

Peoples et al. 2004 Agriculture and the Nitrogen Cycle Island Press pp 53-69

Butler 2004 Health and Forests Earthscan pp 13-33

McMichael et al. 2008 Br Med J 336:191-194; Smith et al. 2000 Proc NatlAcad Sci USA 97:13286-13293; Pope et al. 2009 N Engl J Med 360:376-386; Finlayson-Pitts & Pitts 1997 Science 276:1045-1051; Pope et al.2004 Circulation 109:71-77

© N.D. Kim, Strange Matter www.lab-initio.com

City Development Index www.unchs.org

Ecological Footprint www.footprintnetwork.org

Environmental Performance Index epi.yale.edu

Environmental Sustainability Index sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu

Genuine Savings Index worldbank.org

Human Development Index hdr.undp.org

Living Planet Index www.panda.org

Well-Being Index www.well-beingindex.com

Environmental Impact Rank

Böhringer & Joachim 2007 Ecol Econ 63:1-8

Environmental Performance Index epi.yale.edu

750

250

.

DALY%.EPIECI%

http://epi.yale.edu

• natural forest loss2005-1990 /ha

• natural habitat conversionhuman-modified landcover/total landcover

• marine captures1990-2005 fish, whales, seals/EEZ km

• fertiliser useNPK/ha arable land

• water pollutionbiochemical oxygen demand/total renewable water resources

• carbon emissionsforestry, land-use change, fossil fuels/km2

• biodiversity threatRed List threatened birds, mammals, amphibians/listed species

Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440

Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440

“I anticipate that the anti-science crowd will be screeching and howling with

indignation when they read this one.”

“This is such BS, China is WAY worse then the U.S.”

“This researcher is a waste ...”

“This article is crap.”

“Can we really depend on some study when the Chinese could have funded

this or maybe some group who was angry at the US and Brazil for whatever?

I highly doubt the accuracy of the findings. Looks like the Treehuggers are at

it again.”

“Shame on you Australia !!! I guess your dying great Barrior [sic] reef is

America's fault too!!!!”

“here we go again. I'm so frickin' sick of these watermelons (green on the

outside, red (communist) on the inside) treehuggers. The only f*^king green I

care about is made of paper and folds.”

Human health: World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database

Environment: - Environmental Combination Index (adapted from Yale Env Performance Index)

- Proportional Environmental Impact rank (Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440)

- natural habitat conversion proportion (Global Land Cover 2000 dataset)

- air/water quality (Yale Environmental Performance Index)

- NPK fertiliser use/area arable land (FAOSTAT database)

- CO2 emissions (Climate Analysis Indicators tool)

Control: - human population size (United Nations Common Database)

- purchasing-power parity-adjusted GNI (World Resources Institute)

- health expenditure (WHO Statistical Information System)

DATA

Human health: WHO Global Burden of Disease database

• Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) - years of life lost due to premature mortality and healthy years of life lost due to disability

• Infant Mortality (male) – 2004 mortality per 1000 live births

• Life Expectancy at birth (male) – 2004

• Diarrhoea deaths among children < 5 years (2000)

• Malaria deaths among children < 5 years (2000)

• Deaths due to Cardiovascular Disease (2002 age-standardised per 10,000)

• Deaths due to Cancers (2002 age-standardised per 10,000)

DATA

Model AICc wAICc %DE %DE

DALY~POPD+GNIpc+HIpc+ECI 0.000 0.816 82.5 0.7

DALY~POPD+GNIpc+HIpc 3.207 0.164 81.8 -

mINFM~POPD+GNIpc+HIpc+ECI 0.000 0.775 82.3 2.3

mINFM~GNIpc+HIpc+ECI 2.479 0.224 81.7 1.7

mLE~POPD+GNIpc+HIpc+ECI 0.000 0.867 62.5 1.8

mLE~POPD+GNIpc+HIpc 4.276 0.102 60.7 -

ENVIRONMENTAL COMBINATION INDEX

http://epi.yale.edu

http://epi.yale.edu

10 % ECI mINFM 7.0/1000 live births mLE 1.9 years

Model AICc wAICc %DE %DE

DALY~POPD+GNIpc+HIpc 0.000 0.584 81.8 -

DALY~POPD+GNIpc+HIpc+ENVprp 0.766 0.398 82.0 0.2

mINFM~POPD+GNIpc+HIpc 0.000 0.403 80.0 -

mINFM~GNIpc+HIpc+ENVprp 0.745 0.278 79.9 0.2

mLE~GNIpc+HIpc+ENVprp 0.000 0.710 63.6 5.5

mLE~POPD+GNIpc+HIpc+ENVprp 1.812 0.287 63.7 3.0

PROPORTIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL INDEX RANK

Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440

Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440

Model AICc wAICc %DE %DE

DALY~CTRL+H2O 0.000 0.320 89.5 1.3

DALY~CTRL+H2O+AIR 1.628 0.142 89.6 1.4

DALY~CTRL+FRT+H2O 1.932 0.122 89.6 1.4

mINFM~CTRL+H2O 0.000 0.189 88.1 3.9

mINFM~CTRL+H2O+AIR 0.081 0.181 88.3 4.1

mINFM~CTRL+CO2+H2O+AIR 0.827 0.125 88.5 4.3

mLE~CTRL+H2O+FRT 0.000 0.334 72.9 8.1

mLE~CTRL+FRT+CO2+H2O+AIR 0.061 0.324 73.9 9.1

mLE~CTRL+FRT+H2O+AIR 2.397 0.101 73.9 9.1

ALL DISEASE

ALL DISEASE

Model AICc wAICc %DE %DE

DIAR~CTRL+FRT+H2O 0.000 0.321 72.9 2.2

DIAR~CTRL+FRT 1.240 0.173 72.1 1.4

DIAR~CTRL+HAB+FRT 2.349 0.099 72.3 1.6

MAL~CTRL+HAB+FRT 0.000 0.381 77.2 5.5

MAL~CTRL+FERT 1.393 0.190 76.5 4.8

MAL~CTRL+AIR+FERT 2.910 0.089 76.7 5.0

INFECTIOUS DISEASE

INFECTIOUS DISEASE

NON-INFECTIOUS DISEASE

Model AICc wAICc %DE %DE

CARDIO~CTRL+H2O+AIR 0.000 0.160 52.4 2.5

CARDIO~CTRL+HAB+H2O+AIR 1.273 0.084 52.8 2.9

CARDIO~CTRL+AIR 1.307 0.083 50.9 1.0

CANC~CTRL+HAB+FRT 0.000 0.279 21.6 12.8

CANC~CTRL+HAB+FRT+H2O+AIR 0.499 0.217 24.3 15.5

CANC~CTRL+HAB+FRT+CO2+AIR 1.369 0.141 23.7 14.9

NON-INFECTIOUS DISEASE

10 % water quality infant mortality 3.4/1000 live births> 946,000 extra infant deaths/year

1.6 years life expectancy

10 % air quality 2.0 cancer deaths/100,000> 132,900 extra cancer deaths/year

10 % pcCO2 emissions infant mortality 0.4/1000 live births> 11,700 extra infant deaths/year

assuming 21.2 births/1000 population & human population 6.5 billion

60 70 80 90

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© WWF

Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440

© WWF

© Moronail.net

© WWF

[email protected]

www.adelaide.edu.au/directory/corey.bradshaw

ConservationBytes.com

• Guo-Jing YangJiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuxi, PR China

• Barry W. BrookThe Environment Institute, The University of Adelaide

• Xiao-Nong ZhouNational Institute of Parasitic Disease, China Centre for

Disease Control, Shanghai, PR China

• Anthony J. McMichaelNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health

The Australian National University

• Colin D. ButlerNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health

The Australian National University

• Xingli GiamPrinceton University, USA

• Navjot S. SodhiNational University of Singapore

© T

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for upcoming presentations and podcasts visit:

www.adelaide.edu.au/researchtuesdays

for related topics visit:

ConservationBytes.com

1 Singapore 179 Cape Verde

2 Rep Korea 178 Cent Afr Rep

3 Qatar 177 Swaziland

4 Kuwait 176 Antig & Barb

5 Japan 175 Niger

6 Thailand 174 Grenada

7 Bahrain 173 Samoa8 Malaysia 172 Tonga9 Philippines 171 Djibouti

10 Netherlands 170 Tajikistan

11 Denmark 169 Bhutan12 Sri Lanka 168 Chad13 Indonesia 167 Vanuatu14 Israel 166 Mali

15 Bangladesh 165 Kazakhstan

16 Malta 164 Gabon

17 China 163 Turkmenistan

18 New Zealand 162 Lesotho

19 Iceland 161 Suriname

20 Honduras 160 Eritrea

1 Brazil

2 USA

3 China

4 Indonesia

5 Japan

6 Mexico

7 India

8 Russia

9 Australia

10 Peru

11 Argentina

12 Canada

13 Malaysia

14 Myanmar

15 Ukraine

16 Thailand

17 Philippines

18 France

19 South Africa

20 Colombia

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Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440

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Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440

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Bradshaw et al. 2010 PLoS One 5:e10440