4G Overview Updates Rural Carriers LTE and WiMax Options

All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 2010

US 3G-4G Market Update

Amit PatelCTO - US National Accounts

All Rights Reserved © Alcatel-Lucent 20102 | 3G/4G Market Update | October 2010

Rapid Adoption Of Data-Intensive Mobile Devices

Drives Heavy Growth In Data Usage

Source: Cisco, Macquarie Research, Morgan Stanley, Barclays Capital, Nielsen, CSMG analysis

10

Typical Monthly Usage / Sub (MB)

FeaturePhone

50 1000250 2000+

0%Su

bs

cri

be

r G

row

th (

CA

GR

10

-13

)

10%

50%

20%

30%

40%

Smart-Phone

iPhone

DataCard

Proliferation of Usage Heavy Proliferation of Usage Heavy

Mobile DevicesMobile Devices

218

169 135

108 89

53 119

163 198 223

271 288

298 306 312

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2007 2009E 2011E 2013E 2015E

US

Mo

bil

e S

ub

scri

bers

(M

)

Smartphone/Multimedia Phone Subs Feature Phone Subs

Shift to MediaShift to Media--Rich MobileRich Mobile

Handsets in USHandsets in US


2Q2010 US Wireless Market Highlights

US Wireless Data Market was $13.2B for 2Q, it grew 6% Q/Q, and 22% Y/Y

� 31% of users now have a smart phone

� Average user consuming 230 MB/month (Clearwire at 7 GB/month)

� Average user 639 texts/month (average teen is at 2272 texts/month)

� Tiered data pricing started with AT&T, likely will be adopted by VZ

� Average ARPU is $51.61, increased Q/Q by $0.46 (voice down $0.13, data up $0.58)

� Data represents 31% of ARPU or $16.00 (Industry lead is VZ at $17.37)

US subscriber penetration is 95% (100% if you don’t count ages 5 and below)

� Connected devices category hits “next level” with iPAD (after Kindle)

� Example: Verizon has 100M connections, of which 8M are connected devices

� Example: Connected devices are 7% of AT&T’s subscription base

Source: Chetan Sharma Consultingand ALU Research

Video is Booming

� Take all the ABC/CBS/NBC broadcasts btwn 1948 and today . . . The equivalent amount of content is uploaded to YouTube every two months

Apple Opening Eyes (and Wallets)

� iPod: 2 Years to reach 1M units sold

� iPhone: 2 Months to reach 1M units sold

� iPad: 1 Month to reach 1M units sold


4G Excitement – US Carriers Selecting LTE and WiMAX

Verizon Lighting up LTE in 30 NFL Cities This YearSept 16, 2010

Verizon plans to launch its LTE 4G network in 25-30 markets in 4Q2010, covering 100 million POPs. Full nationwide coverage by 2013. DL speeds are expected to be 5-12 Mbps. Laptops and USB dongles will come first, followed by Smart Phones by mid 2011. It’s envisioned that cars, cameras, appliances will all eventually connect to an LTE network.

AT&T to Launch LTE by Mid-2011Sept 16, 2010

AT&T will launch LTE by mid-2011 and cover between 70-75M POPs by end of next year. This is on top of the current HSPA+ rollout which offers real-world download speeds of 7 Mbps. Previously, AT&T had said that LTE would not be mature until 2014.

AT&T Touts UMTS/HSPA Network ImprovementsSept 10, 2010

AT&T plans to roll out HSPA+ to more than 250 million people by 2010. In 1H2010, AT&T added 600 new cell sites, upgraded 925 sites to 3G and deployed more than 6500 additional radio carriers. The carrier also continues to massively upgrade it’s backhaul network.

Verizon Considers Licensing LTE Spectrum to Rural CarriersMay 12, 2010

Verizon is in discussions with a number of rural wireless carriers to license them its 700 MHz spectrum, in a bid to expand the reach of its LTE network. The goal would be to more quickly expand its LTE footprint.

RUMOR: Verizon Switching to Usage Based Data PricingJuly 21, 2010

Verizon CFO indicated a change in its pricing plans where it will not be unlimited, flat rate. Smartphone users use between 600-800MB, similar to AT&T report for the iPhone. AT&T switching to usage based pricing in June.



T-Mobile Plans Upgrade to 42 Mbps HSPA+Sept 2, 2010

T-Mobile plans to cover 100 metro areas and 185 million people with HSPA+ by the end of 2010. End user DL speeds have been measured at 5-8 Mbps. HSPA+ supports peak DL speeds of 21 Mbps. HSPA+ Dual Carrier, otbe introduced in 2011, will support a peak DL of 42 Mbps

Clearwire Will Begin LTE Tests, While Supporting WiMAXSept 17, 2010

By the end of 2010, Clearwire expects to have 3M total subscribers. The carrier plans to expand to 80 markets and cover 120 million POPS by the end of 2010. Clearwire will spend $2.8-$3.2B this year to build out the network. Partners include Sprint, Comcast, and Time Warner Cable. In parallel, Clearwire has announced that it will being testing of LTE in the 2.5-2.6 GHz band, and with 40 MHz of spectrum will be able to offer 20-70 Mbps DL speeds. Current WiMAX DL speeds are 3-6 Mbps and theaverage customer uses around 7 GBs/month.

Sprint Assessing Network ModernizationSept 16, 2010

Sprint is evaluating a massive network modernization that will reduce the number of cellsites from 66K to 46K. The carrier is looking for multi-mode radios that support CDMA, WiMAX and LTE. Sprint owns 54% of Clearwire and is currently reselling the WiMAX service under the “Sprint 4G” moniker.

LightSquared (Harbinger) 4G Build-out PlansAug 31, 2010

LightSquared, has agreed to build a nationwide LTE Network based on MSS spectrum to cover 100 million POPS by end of 2012, 145M by end of 2013 and 260M by the end of 2015. It will begin with 9 markets and 5K cell sites in 2011 and grow to 20 markets and 18K cell sites in 2012. It’s estimated that 40K cell sites will be needed for the nationwide footprint. The company is investigating a variety of business models including hosting, wholesale, pooling and leasing. The aggressive build-out plans have some investors worried.

Clearwire Open to Funding From T-MobileSept 24, 2010

Clearwire will to to get more funding in the form of debt and an equity purchase from T-Mobile, which would help fund it’s operations and buildout. Sprint board members are divided over this, but it’s Clearwire’s decision to make.



MetroPCS Launches LTE in Las VegasSept 21, 2010

MetroPCS launched its LTE service in Las Vegas, and is the first commercial LTE launch in the US. More markets are “coming” soon. $55 plan will include unlimited CDMA voice, texting and LTE data. First device to be used is Samsung smart phone with AWS support.

Leap Wireless Focuses on EV-DO, Has Time For LTEAug 4, 2010

Cricket plans to have its first LTE trial market by second half of 2011. Concerns about handset pricing and availability have Cricket targeting mid 2012 for LTE market rollout.

US Cellular Accelerates EV-DO, Weighing LTE TrialAug 6, 2010

US Cellular is working with multiple vendors on trials for a 4G LTE. However, no timetable announced at this time.

FCC Approves Public Safety Networks Using LTEMay 13, 2010

The FCC granted 21 waivers to regional and local entities to begin building wireless broadband networks for first responders in the 700 MHz band. The networks deployed must be interoperable in coordination with the FCC’s Emergency Response Interoperability Center. Part of the public safety effort includes a re-auction of the D-block portion of the 700 MHz band, although that spectrum is NOT a part of the FCC waivers.

NTIA To Open Additional Round of FundingMay 16, 2010

NTIA said it would open an additional round of BTOP (broadband stimulus) funding for public safety waiver recipients, since they may have stayed away from applying previously without permission to use the spectrum. Applications can be submitted between June 1 and July 1, 2010.

FCC Release on 21 Waivers:http://www.fcc.gov/Daily_Releases/Daily_Business/2010/db0512/DOC-298124A1.pdf



� Several US Broadband Stimulus Winners Are Planning Fixed Wireless Deployments to support their regions’ underserved areas

� Example of Round 1 and 2 Awardees include (not a complete list)

� Big River Broadband

� Buggs Island Telephone

� CellOne of East Central Illinois (expected to be HSPA+)

� Keystone Wireless

� Minnesota Valley

� Panhandle Telephone

� Pine Telephone (expected to be HSPA+)

� Pioneer Long Distance

� Rivada Sea Lion

� Sunman Wireless

� Utopian Wireless

� Vermont Tel

� West Virginia PCS (expected to be EVDO)

� Several Public Safety entities (more expected in Round 2.5)


Worldwide Mobile Subscriber Forecast

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

GSM WCDMA

CDMA CDMA EV

LTE WIMAX

Source: Alcatel-Lucent,Dell’oro (2009)

2G

2G3G

3G

4G

4G is Here, But There’s Still A Very Long 3G Window


Peak Rates vs. Average Sector Throughput in DL

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1.4 MHz/1.4MHz

3 MHz/3 MHz

5 MHz/5MHz

10 MHz/10 MHz

20 MHz/20 MHz

LTE Downlink Data Rates

2x2 MIMO

24.012.06.03.61.4AggregateAverage

150.873.436.722.18.8Theory(Peak)

Rural Carriers Typically Have 5 MHz up and 5 MHz down

� 100 Mbps is NOT possible with this much spectrum

� OFDMA (LTE/WiMAX) benefit is reduced at lower bandwidths

11.06.66.04.23.73.63.753.0AggregateAverage

27.636.736.728.821.014.49.37.2Theory(Peak)

11.0

27.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70Mbps

EVDORev 0

EVDORev A

HSPA HSPA+ HSPA+2x2MIMO

LTE 2x2MIMO

LTE4x2MIMO

WiMAX2x2MIMO

WiMAX 4x2MIMO + BF

FDD 5 MHz Up / 5 MHz DownTDD 10 MHz (32:15 –FL:RL)

Peak ≠ Typical

Average macrocell spectral efficiency ≈1.2 bps/Hz, or

≈12 Mbps in 10 MHz


Peak Rates vs. Average Sector Throughput in UL

Rural Carriers Typically Have 5 MHz up and 5 MHz down

� 100 Mbps is NOT possible with this much spectrum and most system are asymmetrically engineered to favor higher bandwidth on the downlink

1.04.23.01.31.20.6AggregateAverage

1.38.58.56.05.43.2Theory(Peak)

2.0

4.0

HSPA HSPA+ HSPA+ LTE 2x2 LTE WiMAX

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0 Mbps

EVDORev 0

EVDORev A

LTE 1x216QAM

LTE 1x416QAM

WIMAX1x2

WIMAX1x4

HSPA

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

1.4 MHz 3 MHz 5 MHz 10 MHz 20 MHz

12.36.03.01.60.6AggregateAverage

40.620.68.55.22.2Theory(Peak)

LTE Uplink Data Rates1x2 16QAM

FDD 5 MHz Up / 5 MHz DownTDD 10 MHz (32:15 –FL:RL)

Peak ≠ Typical

Average macrocell spectral efficiency ≈0.6 bps/Hz, or

≈6 Mbps in 10 MHz


US Spectrum vs Available Wireless Solutions

2011MSS L Band

Frequency Band GSM CDMAW-CDMA

(UMTS)LTE WiMax

700MHz2Q10(Tier 1)

1Q11 (Tier 2/3)

“Closed”SolutionsAvailable

850MHz Cellular √ √ √ 2011/2012

1900MHz PCS √ √ √ 2011

1700MHz/2100MHz AWS √ √2Q10 (Tier 2)

1Q11 (Tier 1/3)

2500 MHz BRS/EBS √


PCRF

Evolution 2G – 3G – 4G

e

LTE

1X

DO

RevAPDSNDO RNC

RNC

GSM

UMTS

HSPA+SGSN

RNC

HLR

HSS

PCRF

HLR

PCRF

GGSN

4G

3G3G

2G

PCRF

SGWPGW

MME


Expected US Timeline for LTE (Patel “Guesstimate”)

LTE Tech Trials

Initial LTE Deployments

First Customer Trials

OFDM/MIMO Demos

First Commercial Releases of LTE Are Almost Here. The Eco-System for Data Cards and Devices Is In It’s Infancy, But Developing Faster Than With 2G/3G.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Interval from standards to mass roll-out has taken 4-6 years for 2.5G and 3G solutions. LTE is expected to be a lot faster.

1st LTEdevices (CI)(data cards)

1st LTE CommercialHandsets

StandardsComplete

AffordableData cards

AffordableHandsets

� 700 MHZ Upper C� AWS Band � 700 MHz Lower B/C � 700 MHz Lower A � 850 MHz ?

� MSS L Band� 700 MHz PS � 2.5 GHz Band ?

� Other Bands ?� 1900 MHz

LTE Mass Rollout

� 700 MHz Upper D ?


UMTS and LTE Device Reality for 2009-2014

USB Wireless Adaptor Price Curve - Per Category/Generation

2009 2010 2011 2012

$100

$1,000

$10,000

HSPA+1st generation

Commodity price

Source: Alcatel-Lucent Markey survey

LTE 1st generation

LTE 2nd generation

(multimode)

$500

$5,000

$50

2013 2014

HSPA+2nd generation

� 3GPP Device Band Plan

• Band 13 – 700 MHz Upper C [Driven By Verizon – 2H2010 deployment]

• Band 4 – AWS Bands [Driven By MetroPCS, Cox and Tier 2s – 4Q2010 deployment]

• Band 17 – 700 MHz Lower B/C [Driven By AT&T – 2011 deployment]

• Band 12 – 700 MHz Lower A/B/C [Driven By Cox, CellSouth, US Cellular – time TBD]

• Band 14 – 700 MHz Public Safety [Driven by Public Safety Segment – Time TBD]

� Rural Carriers have 850, 1900, AWS and 700 Lower A/B/C

• Initial data cards from established vendors is focused on Band 13, followed by Band 4 and 17; “high end” voice/data handsets will follow 6-12 months after data cards

• Only a couple prototype devices for Band 12 (due to interference issues of lower A and lack of standard)

• Devices for1900 MHz expected mid 2011

• 850 MHz Devices will be based on market demand/drivers


www.alcatel-lucent.com/lte

4G Overview Updates Rural Carriers LTE and WiMax Options

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