2016 08-02 ctp update and assessment

AEI’s Critical Threats ProjectUpdate and Assessment

August 2, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

1. Al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al Nusra, set conditions to facilitate the unification of the Syrian opposition around it as a core leadership group.

2. The expansion of the U.S. counter-ISIS air campaign to Libya may accelerate the defeat of ISIS in Sirte, but is unlikely to defeat the group in Libya.

3. Al Houthi-Saleh forces may be escalating attacks along the Saudi-Yemeni border to induce Saudi Arabia to negotiate a ceasefire outside of the framework of the UN-led negotiations that are ongoing in Kuwait.

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| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA

al Qaeda Network• Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, Jabhat al Nusra, set conditions for it to become part of the core leadership of a unified

armed Syrian opposition. Jabhat al Nusra’s leader Abu Mohammed al Joulani announced the end of Jabhat al Nusra’s operations and the formation of a new group, Jabhat Fatah al Sham, which does not have ties to al Qaeda on July 28. Al Qaeda leadership sanctioned the move in a statement released earlier that day: al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri’s deputy Ahmed Hassan Abu al Khayr told Jabhat al Nusra to do what it must to preserve the unity of the Syrian opposition. He said, “the brotherhood of Islam that is between us is stronger than all the finite, ever-changing organizational links.” The change will facilitate the unification of Syrian opposition groups around a leadership group that still pursues al Qaeda’s objective of establishing an Islamic emirate in Syria.

Outlook: Jabhat Fatah al Sham will operate within the global Salafi-jihadi movement under the leadership of al Qaeda.

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PoliticalNeither President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government nor the al Houthi-Saleh alliance believes that peace talks will produce a satisfactory agreement, and both sides are now posturing to save face when talks end. The Hadi government accepted a peace proposal by the UN Special Envoy for Yemen on July 31, probably assuming that the al Houthi-Saleh alliance would reject the proposal. Al Houthi and Saleh factions signed a power-sharing agreement on 28 July, cementing their alliance in the short-term and building a Sana’a-based central government to compete with Hadi’s government.

Outlook: Hadi and al Houthi-GPC delegations will not agree to an agreement by August 7, the talks’ scheduled end date.

SecurityAl Houthi-Saleh forces increased attacks targeting Saudi border forces in an effort to provoke a Saudi reaction. This may validate the al Houthi-Saleh narrative of Saudi “aggression” and induce Saudi Arabia to negotiate directly with the al Houthi-Saleh alliance outside of the Kuwait talks. The Saudi army warned that violation of Saudi territory is a “red line.” Hadi government forces clashed with al Houthi-Saleh forces in Taiz, al Jawf, Lahij, and Ibb governorates, but neither side advanced significantly. Hadi government forces skirmished with local security groups, which had previously supported the Hadi government, in Aden, indicating an increasingly fragmented security situation in the city and neighboring areas.

Outlook: Fighting will escalate across the civil war’s front lines as leaders abandon a diplomatic solution to the conflict.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP and ISIS militants continued targeted assassinations of southern leaders and Hadi government members in and around Aden aiming to undermine the Hadi government’s legitimacy. AQAP fighters attempted to assassinate a Hadi-allied military commander on July 31. An ISIS-affiliated news agency claimed the assassination of a police investigator on July 31.

Outlook: AQAP and ISIS will continue efforts to weaken governance structures across southern Yemen by assassinating local leaders.

GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

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1) 27 JUL: Militants detonated an IED in a market in Ma’rib city, Ma’rib.2) 28 JUL: Hadi-allied forces clashed with al Houthi-Saleh forces in Nihm, Sana’a.3) 31 JUL: Al Houthi-Saleh forces clashed with Saudi soldiers on the Saudi-Yemeni border.4) 01 AUG: AQAP militants detonated an IED targeting a military commander in Aden city.5) 01 AUG: Al Houthi shelling targeted Saudi forces in Samitah, Jizan province.

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PoliticalSomali officials will likely delay the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for August and September 2016. A failure to hold elections could further destabilize an already fragile security environment. Elections for the upper house were scheduled for July, but have yet to take place. Officials remain in talks over terms and logistics for the presidential election, and have doubted the implementation of multiple procedural guidelines for the parliamentary elections, including the 30 percent threshold for female representation.

Outlook: Somali officials will be forced to delay the parliamentary and presidential elections until early 2017.

Security Al Shabaab increased the frequency of suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs) attacks targeting Mogadishu. Al Shabaab militants launched a double SVBIED attack on the Halane base in Mogadishu on July 26 that killed 12 UN and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) personnel. Militants launched a second double SVBIED attack on the Central Investigations Department building in Mogadishu on July 31 that killed seven civilians. Somali security forces interdicted SVBIEDs targeting Mogadishu on July 13, 27, and 31.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will continue to conduct explosive attacks targeting UN, AMISOM, and Somali officials in Mogadishu.

Al Shabaab Al Shabaab militants are targeting telecommunications infrastructure throughout southern Somalia and the Somali-Kenyan border region. Militants attacked infrastructure near Fino town in Mandera County, Kenya on July 28. Al Shabaab gunmen forced the shutdown of a telecoms company in Marka town on July 29. Al Shabaab opposes modern media on ideological grounds, but likely used the telecoms blackouts to maneuver forces and weapons.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will continue attacking telecommunications in order to transport forces and weapons into Kenya’s eastern counties.

GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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HoA SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY 26 JUL - 01 AUG

1) 28 JUL: Al Shabaab destroyed telecommunications equipment in Mandera County, Kenya.2) 29 JUL: Al Shabaab militants compelled a telecommunications company to suspend service in Marka town, Lower Shabelle region.3) 31 JUL: Al Shabaab launched a double SVBIED attack on a law enforcement center in Mogadishu.4) 31 JUL: Somali intelligence personnel interdicted SVBIED in Lido Beach, Mogadishu.

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PoliticalThe UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) placed Tripoli under a state of emergency in preparation for protests objecting to U.S. airstrikes against ISIS in Sirte. Protests broke out in Tripoli’s Martyrs’ Square against the GNA and the French presence in Benghazi. The GNA attempted to block the protests from occurring and to prohibit media outlets from covering the event but failed to do so.

Outlook: The GNA will struggle to maintain power in Libya as domestic actors lose faith in the GNA’s ability to stabilize the country and the GNA faces backlash for turning to international actors for support.

SecurityISIS and the Benghazi Revolutionary Shura Council (BRSC), an Islamist coalition with ties to al Qaeda associate Ansar al Sharia, are simultaneously escalating attacks against the Libyan National Army (LNA) in Benghazi. Both groups conducted SVBIED and IED attacks against LNA targets in the Qawarsha district of western Benghazi on July 29 and 30. There is no evidence that ISIS and the BRSC are coordinating, but both aimed to counter the LNA and protect safe havens in Benghazi.

Outlook: ISIS and Ansar al Sharia affiliates in eastern Libya will increase the accuracy and frequency of explosive attacks against LNA targets as the LNA struggles to counter Salafi-jihadi efforts on multiple fronts.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaThe United States began an airstrike campaign against ISIS targets in Sirte at the request of the UN-backed GNA. The U.S. will coordinate with the GNA-aligned Misratan militias, which comprise the GNA’s armed forces in Sirte. The Misratans have struggled to operate in the dense urban terrain or block escape routes out of the city.

Outlook: The U.S. air campaign will help the GNA and Misratan forces take control of Sirte, but ISIS will continue to operate in other regions of the country.

WEST AFRICA LIBYA

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LIBYA SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY 26 JUL - 01 AUG

1) 01 AUG: The United States conducted airstrikes targeting ISIS in Sirte.2) 27 JUL: The LNA conducted airstrikes against the BDB on the Ajdabiya-Benghazi road.3) 29-30 JUL: ISIS and the BRSC conducted separate SVBIED attacks against the LNA in Qawarsha district, Benghazi.4) 01 AUG: The LNA conducted airstrikes targeting the MSCD and continued restricting access to Derna.

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Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)Moroccan security forces reported the arrests of a growing number of suspected ISIS militants, but the extent of these detainees’ ties to ISIS remains unknown. Security forces dismantled a 52-man cell that planned to attack military, security, and tourist sites and may have intended to declare an ISIS wilayat in Morocco, according to the Moroccan Ministry of Defense. The government may overstate the ISIS threat to justify its security operations.

Outlook: ISIS will attempt to expand its network in Morocco, but its presence likely remains limited to individual cells.

Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)The AQIM-affiliated Uqba Ibn Nafa’a Brigade continues to conduct defensive operations to protect its safe havens in western Tunisia. The group released its first media statement in three months to claim an IED attack against Tunisian security forces that was meant to defend Jebel Samama in the Kef Governorate. The Tunisian Parliament voted to remove Prime Minister Habib Essid on July 30. This result was expected, but the absence of a clear successor or party unity makes the transition a potential source of instability.

Outlook: Uqba Ibn Nafa’a will continue small-scale defensive attacks to protect its support zone in western Tunisia. Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)

• Tensions between GATIA, a pro-government coalition, and the CMA, a Tuareg separatist coalition, remain high in the Kidal region in northern Mali. Both GATIA and the CMA signed the 2015 Mali Peace Accord, but fighting resumed between the two groups in late July in the area near Kidal. MINUSMA peacekeeping forces secured the entrances to Kidal city and are conducting foot patrols and air reconnaissance to prevent hostilities from spreading to the city itself. The Malian government extended a state of emergency for eight months in response to the continued violence in northern Mali. AQIM affiliate al Murabitoun also released pictures indicating that it is operating in the desert regions of northern Mali.

Outlook: AQIM affiliates will conduct operations in northern Mali to weaken the state and inflame tensions in the region.

WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

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1) 26 JUL: Tunisian security forces killed two suspected Uqba Ibn Nafa’a militants in Jendouba, Tunisia.2) 27 JUL: Tunisian security forces arrested a suspected militant with links to ISIS in Tunis, Tunisia.3) 27 JUL: The Algerian People’s National Army destroyed six suspected terrorist shelters and three bombs in Tizi Ouzou, Algeria. 4) 30 JUL: Tunisian border police discovered a weapons cache in Ben Guerdane, Tunisia.

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1) 26 JUL: Malian Security forces arrested an Ansar al Din lieutenant in Nampala, Mali.2) 30 JUL: GATIA forces clashed with CMA forces in Edjerer in Kidal region, Mali.3) 31 JUL: MINUSMA forces took control of the entrances to Kidal city in northern Mali.4) 01 AUG: Militants assassinated a Malian army captain in Timbuktu, Mali.

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ACRONYMS

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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Katherine Zimmermanresearch [email protected] (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran [email protected](202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran [email protected](202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram [email protected](202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda [email protected](202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran [email protected](202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

[email protected] (202) 888-6569