2016 08-09 ctp update and assessment

AEI’s Critical Threats ProjectUpdate and Assessment

August 9, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

1. The Hadi government and its military forces launched an offensive to seize Sana’a from the al Houthi-Saleh alliance. This offensive will prolong the war.

2. ISIS replaced the leader of its Nigerian affiliate, formerly known as Boko Haram, signaling possible efforts to strengthen its foothold in Africa.

3. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan splinter and ISIS-leaning group Jamatul Ahrar claimed a suicide attack that targeted lawyers at a hospital in Quetta, Pakistan.

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al Qaeda Network

Jamatul Ahrar (JuA), a Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) splinter group that has demonstrated leanings toward the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing that killed at least 70 civilians at a hospital in Quetta, southwest Pakistan on August 8. The blast targeted lawyers accompanying the body of Baluchistan Bar Association president Bilal Kasi. JuA assassinated Kasi earlier on August 8. JuA targets the judiciary as a symbol of secularism and the Pakistani state. A JuA suicide bomber attacked a courthouse in Charsadda district on March 7, 2016. JuA also conducted a suicide attack in March 2016 targeting Christians in Lahore that killed more than 70 people. The pro-ISIS media outlet ‘Amaq News Agency claimed that ISIS conducted the attack in Quetta on August 8, but JuA is likely responsible.

The al Qaeda network continues to develop in South Asia. The Global Islamic Media Front (GIMF), a jihadist media organization with links to al Qaeda, created a new media outlet called GIMF Subcontinent intended for outreach to the Indian Subcontinent. Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) condemned the Pakistani Army and called on Pakistani soldiers to join AQIS in a Telegram post on August 8. Ghazwathul Hind, a jihadi Telegram channel focused on India, encouraged Indian Muslims to revolt against the government in response to recent rebel military victories in Aleppo, northwestern Syria, on August 8. This call mirrors AQIS leader 'Asim Umar’s July 3 statement that the revolution in Syria is an example for Indian Muslims to follow. AQIS leadership seeks to leverage al Qaeda’s successes in Syria to promote jihad on the Indian subcontinent.

Outlook: Jamatul Ahrar will continue to attack courts, lawyers, and other targets related to the judiciary throughout Pakistan.

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PoliticalUN-led peace talks in Kuwait ended without producing an agreement. The UN Special Envoy suspended the talks for one month beginning on August 6. Al Houthi-Saleh forces continued attacks targeting Saudi border forces, possibly seeking to induce direct talks with Saudi Arabia. A Saudi military spokesman called the border a “red line” and rejected the possibility of including the border region in negotiations. Outlook: The UN-led peace process will not resume in one month.

SecurityForces loyal to President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi launched an offensive to seize Sana’a from the al Houthi-Saleh, alliance. The government forces are contesting control of a main road to Sana’a in Nihm district, northeast of the capital city. The Saudi-led coalition resumed airstrikes on Sana’a city for the first time since April 2016 in support of the offensive. Coalition airstrikes targeted al Houthi-Saleh military sites but also struck civilian targets. Hadi government forces are resisting al Houthi-Saleh forces’ efforts to secure key terrain south of Taiz city.

Outlook: The Hadi government offensive on Sana’a will not produce a decisive military victory that will end the war.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP is preserving its capabilities by withdrawing from population centers in southern Yemen. AQAP withdrew from Azzan

in Shabwah governorate, which it seized in February 2016, following U.S. and Saudi-led coalition airstrikes on its positions in the city. AQAP continued its campaign to undermine the Hadi government’s legitimacy. AQAP militants detonated two suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (SVBIEDs) at a Hadi-allied military base in Lahij governorate on August 2. Militants also attempted to attack al Mukalla port in Hadramawt governorate on August 2. AQAP withdrew from al Mukalla before a coalition offensive in April 2016.

Outlook: AQAP will return to population centers in southern Yemen as the coalition and Hadi government prioritize the Sana’a offensive and the Saudi-Yemeni border.

GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

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1) 02 AUG: Al Houthi-Saleh forces killed two Saudi soldiers in Jazan province, Saudi Arabia.2) 06 AUG:Hadi government forces launched an offensive in Nihm district, Sana’a.3) 08 AUG: Saudi-led coalition forces conducted five airstrikes on al-Houthi-Saleh targets in Taiz.4) 02 AUG: AQAP killed two Yemeni soldiers at a checkpoint in Aden.5) 04 AUG: U.S. airstrikes targeted AQAP in Azzan, Shabwah.

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PoliticalSomali officials announced the new timeline for presidential and parliamentary elections. The elections for the Upper and Lower House will begin on September 25. The new parliament will then select a president on October 30. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s former legal advisor heads the Federal Election Implementation Team (FEIT) in charge of overseeing the election process. The FEIT announced the new election timeline under increasing pressure from Somali political leaders and foreign governments to hold elections.

Outlook: Somalia will hold elections following the new timeline. The new parliament will re-elect President Mohamud.

Security Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) are struggling to secure the Somali-Kenyan border region against al Shabaab. Al Shabaab militants attacked a KDF base and convoy in Fino town, Mandera County, Kenya on August 4. Militants also conducted an improvised explosive device (IED) attack on a KDF tank in Lamu County, Kenya on August 3, wounding five soldiers. Somali National Army (SNA) and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces intend to crackdown on al Shabaab activity in Somalia in the lead up to the presidential and parliamentary elections.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will continue to target Kenya as SNA and AMISOM forces intensify counterterrorism operations in Somalia.

Al Shabaab Al Shabaab continued an assassination campaign targeting military and government personnel in Mogadishu. Al Shabaab militants attempted to assassinate SNA Colonel Dirie Qarshe on August 2 and Somali Youth and Sports Minister Mohamed Hassan on August 7.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will continue to target officials in Mogadishu. The group may shift its focus to candidates in the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections.

GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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HoA SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY 02 AUG -08 AUG

1) 03 AUG: Al Shabaab conducted an IED attack targeting a KDF tank in the Linda Boni Forest, Lamu County, Kenya.2) 04 AUG: Al Shabaab attacked a KDF base in Fino town, Mandera County, Kenya.3) 06 AUG: Al Shabaab mortar fire killed a child near Baidoa airport, Bay region, Somalia.4) 07 AUG: Al Shabaab attempted to assassinate the Minister of Youth and Sports in Mogadishu.

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PoliticalThe Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) is consolidating power in eastern and southern Libya as the UN-

backed Government of National Accord (GNA) weakens in the west. The HoR appointed a military governor for southern Libya and made an overture to leaders in Misrata, who are currently allied with the GNA. Protesters in Tripoli and Misrata demonstrated against the GNA and in support of eastern Libyan Islamist coalitions with ties to al Qaeda associate Ansar al Sharia.

Outlook: The HoR will attempt to broker an agreement with the GNA’s allies in an effort to establish itself as Libya’s legitimate government.

SecurityThe Libyan National Army (LNA), allied with the HoR, and the Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG), allied with the GNA, are

fighting for control of oil infrastructure in eastern Libya. The LNA attacked the PFG at the Zueitina oil terminal, located south of Benghazi, on August 6. The PFG repelled the attack but LNA troops remain nearby.

Outlook: The LNA will contest the GNA’s control of oil production and exportation in eastern Libya.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaMisratan forces operating under the GNA advanced slowly against ISIS in Sirte with U.S. air and Special Forces support. Al

Qaeda associate Ansar al Sharia in Libya (ASL) is exploiting Libya’s political rivalries and the focus on the counter-ISIS campaign to escalate attacks in eastern Libya. ASL released a video titled “Sacrifice Parade” that called for more suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attacks in eastern Libya.

Outlook: ISIS will continue to operate in Libya after withdrawing from Sirte. Ansar al Sharia and affiliated groups will increase SVBIED attacks targeting the LNA in western Benghazi.

WEST AFRICA LIBYA

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1) 02 AUG-08 AUG: U.S. airstrikes struck ISIS targets in Sirte.2) 08 AUG: The ASL-linked Benghazi Defense Brigades attacked the LNA at the Zillah oil terminal.3) 06 AUG: The PFG blocked an LNA attack at the Zueitina oil port.4) 02 AUG: The ASL-linked BRSC conducted an SVBIED and artillery attack on LNA soldiers in Benghazi.5) 02 AUG-06 AUG: The ASL-linked MSCD repelled an LNA attack on Derna.

LIBYA SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY 02 AUG - 08 AUG

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Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)Algerian and Moroccan security forces continue to crack down on Salafi-jihadi activity. Moroccan security forces arrested two

suspected militants in Tangier. Algerian security forces cleared safe havens and interdicted arms caches in eastern Algeria.

Outlook: AQIM will carry out small-scale attacks to defend safe havens in Algeria.

Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi nominated Nidaa Tounes member and distant relative Youssef Shahed to be Tunisia’s

next Prime Minister. Parliament will vote on his confirmation and cabinet within the next month. Both the ruling Nidaa Tounes party and the largest opposition party, Ennahda, pledged to support Shahed.

Outlook: The Tunisian parliament will confirm Shahed as prime minister, but allegations of nepotism and corruption in Essebsi’s government may spark backlash.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)The Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) may seek to take more direct control of its West African affiliate and strengthen its

position in Africa. ISIS appointed Abu Musab al Barnawi as the governor of its Wilayat Gharb Ifriqiyya, formerly known as Boko Haram. Al Barnawi replaces Abubakar al Shekau, who denounced the reshuffle and continues to lead a faction of the group under Boko Haram’s original name. Al Barnawi is more responsive to ISIS’s ideology and directives than Shekau, and victory by his faction over Shekau’s would bring the group closer to ISIS.

AQIM affiliates are conducting operations in central and northern Mali to weaken the state and inflame ethnic tensions. The Massina Liberation Front, which is linked to AQIM affiliate Ansar al Din, clashed with government forces near Tenenkou city in central Mali on August 7. Ansar al Din claimed responsibility for two improvised explosive device (IED) attacks targeting UN forces in northern Mali on August 7 and 8.

Outlook: ISIS will increase support for and coordination with Wilayat Gharb Ifriqiyya under al Barnawi’s leadership.

WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

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MAGHREB SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY 02 AUG - 08 AUG

1) 03 AUG: Militants detonated an IED that wounded one Tunisian soldier near Jebel Samama, Tunisia.2) 04 AUG: Algerian security forces destroyed a weapons cache in Skikda, Algeria.3) 06 AUG: Moroccan security forces arrested two suspected militants in Tangier, Morocco.4) 06 AUG: Tunisian security forces arrested two suspected militants in Ariana, Tunisia.

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31) 04 AUG: Militants opened fire on civilians in Sadiola, Mali.2) 07 AUG: Ansar al Din detonated an IED targeting a MINUSMA supply truck in Taglit, Mali.3) 08 AUG: Algerian security forces arrested a suspected militant in Tanharansett, Algeria. 4) 08 AUG: The Massina Liberation Front clashed with Malian government forces in Tenenkou, Mali.

SAHEL SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY 02 AUG- 08 AUG

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ACRONYMS

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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Katherine Zimmermanresearch [email protected] (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran [email protected](202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran [email protected](202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram [email protected](202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda [email protected](202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran [email protected](202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

[email protected] (202) 888-6569

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al Qaeda Team AnalystsKatherine ZimmermanEmily Estelle

al Qaeda Team InternsAlix HalloranKristen JohnsonNick JonssonColin LahiffSarah LossingBailey PalmerDan Toubman

Iran Team AnalystsPaul BucalaMarie DonovanCaitlin Pendleton

Iran Team InternsShayan Enferadi

Communications & Technology InternsMargot GrubertIkaasa Suri

Research Teams