2015 Generational Shifts in Voting

GENERATIONAL SHIFTS IN VOTING

#GE2015

GENERATIONAL SHIFTS IN VOTING

Ipsos MORI has analysed over half a million interviews to identify generational shifts in voting and engagement with politics between 1996-2014.

This tracks four cohorts: the Pre-War generation, Baby Boomers, Generation X and Generation Y.

The analysis shows the increasing challenge facing the two main parties in engaging Gen Y…

Conservatives are gaining among all EXCEPT Generation Y – theyhave lost a fifth of their young vote, after a few years of gainsHOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Base: over 500,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates

PRE WAR

(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)

BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y

0

10

5

20

25

15

30

35

40

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Conservative

3

…but Labour have lost even more Gen Y voters since 2013(down from 34% to 26%)…HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Base: over 500,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates

PRE WAR

(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)

BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Labour

4

And Lib Dems have made no gains on a low baseHOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Base: over 500,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates

PRE WAR

(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)

BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y

0

2

4

8

10

12

14

15

18

20

% Liberal Democrat

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

5

Where are Gen Y going?…6% now say will vote UKIP…HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Base: over 500,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates

PRE WAR

(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)

BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y

0

5

10

15

% UKIP

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

6

…7% say will vote Green…HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Base: over 500,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates

PRE WAR

(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)

BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y

0

2

4

6

8

10

% Green

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

7

…undecided increased 4 percentage points to 22%...HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Base: over 500,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates

PRE WAR

(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)

BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

% Undecided

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

8

…and slight increase in would not vote – which is unusual in run-up to an election: other generations saying more likely to voteHOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Base: over 500,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates

PRE WAR

(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)

BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y

0

5

10

15

20

25

% Would not vote

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

9

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

And certainty of vote staying relatively soft among Gen Y: 70% of oldest generation say certain to vote, only 39% of Gen Y

Base: over 500,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates

PRE WAR

(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)

BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y TOTAL

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Absolutely certain to vote

10

Not about a difference in trust: all generations distrustpoliticians – baby boomers actually most disillusioned…...WOULD YOU TELL ME IF YOU GENERALLY TRUST POLITICIANS TO TELL THE TRUTH, OR NOT?

Base: c18,000 interviews Source: Ipsos MORI Political Aggregates

PRE WAR

(before 1945) (1945-65) (1966-1979) (1980-2000)

BABY BOOMERS GENERATION X GENERATION Y

0

10

50

40

30

20

60

70

80

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

% Tell the truth

11

For more information contact: [email protected] @BobbyIpsosMORI

And see Ipsos MORI’s full generational analysis here: www.ipsos-mori-generations.com

GENERATIONAL SHIFTS IN VOTING