2011 12 12 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

MA

S-TERMMULTI-DAY

L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/POSITION

ENTRYLEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD SHORT 3 1.3280 1.3140/1.2990/1.2870 (Entered 12/12/2012) 1.3460GBP/USD Await fresh signal.USD/JPY Await New Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.USD/CHF Await fresh signal.USD/CAD Awaiting New Buy Trade setup.AUD/USD Sell Stop 3 1.0050 0.9950/0.9660/0.9380 1.0210GBP/JPY Sell limit 3 123.00 122.00/121.00/120.00 124.00EUR/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8700 0.8565/0.8485/0.8285 0.8835EUR/CHF Sell limit 3 1.2480 1.2380/1.2226/1.1973 1.2580GOLD SHORT 3 1705 1605/1530/1300 (Entered 12/12/2012) 1750SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 34.1300

DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT12 December, 2011

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry

point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

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Bears push into 1.3212 after ratings warning fromMoodys.

EUR/USD bears have continued to push lower, after a recent warning from

Moodys which cited that it would review ratings for all European Union

countries. In price terms, bears need to break near-term support at 1.3212

(25th Nov low) and 1.3146 (Oct swing low).

We have opened a sell trade setup favouring extended downside scope.

Our cycle analysis suggests increased volatility over the next two weeks

across risk proxies, including the equity and commodity markets.

A close beneath 1.3146 will re-establish the larger downtrend from April and

target 1.3000 (psychological level), then 1.2870 (2011 major low).

Meanwhile, resistance can be found at 1.3550 (02 Dec high), then 1.3610

and 1.3730. Any rebound into these levels is likely to be short-lived.

Inversely, the USD Index is maintaining its recovery higher and still targets

its recent 9-month highs near 80, (a move worth almost 10%).

Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs

(3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain

strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold

extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

Special Report:EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEOMIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

SHORT 3: 1.3280, Obj: 1.3140/1.2990/1.2870, Stop: 1.3460

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD Index daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

200-DMA(1.4074)

BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED

BREAKOUTS

UPTREND2 YEARS

EUR/USD (Daily)

BREAKOUTZONE

(1.4000)

1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL)1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)

+

-

USD INDEX(4 YEARS)

DEMARKBUY SIGNAL

+27% +19%

TRIGGER(15000)

COT LIQUIDITY

+10%SO FAR

EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS

9 KEY SUPPORT(73.50-73.00)

13

USD INDEX

200-DMA(75.82)

DEMARKBUY SIGNALS

BREAKOUT ZONE

EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

9 MONTHHIGH

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Prints a fresh hourly low, adding to uncertainty.

GBP/USD has returned to the base of a month long range, breaking back

under 1.5561 following two false breaks, one in either direction. We now

await confirmation that the current break can be sustained.

Demand for sterling is likely to be affected by the movement in selected core

Euro-Zone sovereign markets. In particular we note that Italian 10 year

yields are trading back over 6.00%. Daily structure is also suggestive of a

return to test 7.00% and higher. A continuation of higher yields may see

Sterling being adopted as a safe haven again. This reasoning would likely

help to keep cable within its year long range.

With the above in mind, the region near 1.5400 may offer attractive levels to

enter into medium-term long positions. Taking this approach will need tosee levels closer to 1.5400 for a well placed stop. The range bound trade of

the last few days is best avoided.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Weakening beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level).

USD/JPY is still weak beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level). There is an ever

growing probability of unfolding a third price retracement back to pre-

intervention levels (PIR III) and potentially even a new post world war recordlow beneath 75.35 (PINL).

Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying

pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first

to call the market bottom.

This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through

psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move

would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,

which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.

The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a

major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection

points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained

move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.

Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal

Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change

Media Reports: CNBC Bloomberg

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426

USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

82.00

83.30

USD/JPY

QUAKESHOCK!

POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)

POSTG7

MOVE (I)HIGH

PIR II

80.24

POSTBOJ

MOVE (II)HIGH

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEADOF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)

POSTBOJ

MOVE (III)HIGH

PIR III

MONTHLYDEMARK

USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)

ENDINGDIAGONAL

PATTERNANTICIPATES

BREAKOUT(85-79)

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Further downswing favoured to complete a larger correction.

USD/CHF continues to trade under 0.9331. Given that the structure from

the key low at 0.8568 is suggestive of a complete leg higher, trade since

0.9331 is deemed to be corrective. Another phase lower is now anticipatedto complete this corrective phase. Further upside pressure in Core Euro-

Zone sovereign yields will assist this scenario.

With this in mind, we note that the respite that was offered to 10 year Italian

government bond yields following the USD based swap rate cut has likely

reached completion. The region near 5.750% has thus far acted as strong

support, warning of a return to 7.000% over coming weeks. If upside

pressure can be maintained in Italian and Spanish yields then USD/CHF will

likely experience a degree of downside pressure.

Referencing Spanish and Italian government bonds back to their respective

levels prior to the six party central bank agreement, we note that most of the

positive after effects have worn off, with yields trading at 5.897% and

6.521% versus 6.478% and 7.355%, before the agreement. (These same

yields were trading at 5.865% and 6.572% respectively at the same time on

Friday.)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

USD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Bulls rebound above 1.0200.

USD/CAD is maintaining its sharp bullish rebound above 1.0200. We are

watching for further sustained price activity to open a buy trade setup.

A directional confirmation above 1.0658 is still needed to unlock the

recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the

rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott wave cycle.

Only a sustained close beneath 1.0080 and parity unlocks bearish setbacks

into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9867 and 0.9726 (31st

Aug low).

EUR/CAD is unwinding mildly ahead of the base of an important multi-

month distribution pattern. A break beneath 1.3393-79 (19th

Sept low/61.8%

Fib), signals an important breakdown into 1.3140 and would providesubstantial correlation pressure onto EUR/USD.

CHF/CAD, which serves as a proxy for risk appetite, remains weak

beneath its 200-day MA (which had provided support for most of the uptrend

since mid-2010). Key support now holds at 1.0893 (61.8% Fib retrace). A

break here would extend the sharp decline into 1.0332 (01st

March low) and

help confirm further unwinding of global risk appetite.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

USD/CAD

USD/CAD daily, weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD (Weekly)

CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680

OPENSLARGER

RECOVERY

DEMARKBUY SIGNAL

USD/CAD (Daily)

200-DMA(0.9867)

MAJOR RESISTANCE

50%(1.3570)

61.8%(1.3379)

EUR/CAD (Daily)

200-DMA(1.3876)

REVERSALPATTERN

CHF/CAD (Daily)

50%(1.1488)

61.8%(1.0893)

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Sharp setbacks beneath 200-day MA at 1.0414.

AUD/USD has resumed its sharp setbacks beneath its 200-day MA which is

currently holding at 1.0414. This key level is likely to encourage further

downside scope over the multi-day-week horizon.

The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further compound downside

pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand

dollar. However, near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200-

day MA. Expect a sharp setback to ensue over the multi-day/week horizon.

The Aussie dollar pairing back its mild recovery against the Japanese yen,

while holding above the neck-line of its two-year distribution pattern. Watch

for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would signal further

unwinding of global risk appetite.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Sell stop 3: 1.0050, Obj: 0.9950/0.9660/0.9380, Stop: 1.0210.

AUD/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

AUD/USD daily, weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD(Weekly)

38.2%(0.9144)

50%(0.8546)

61.8%(0.7947)

3 YEARUPTRENDISUNDER

PRESSURE

STRUCTURALLEVEL

KEYZONE

AUD/USD(1 YEAR)

DEMARKSELLSIGNALS

200-DMA(1.0414)

REVERSINGINTO

200-DMA

AUD/NZD(Daily)

KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100

200-DMA

(82.47)

13

38.2%(76.70)

61.8%(68.47)

50%(72.58)

AUD/JPY(Daily)

DEMARKSELL SIGNAL

RESUMPTION OFBREAKDOWN

ADDS TORISK AVERSION

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Returns to the base of this months range.

GBP/JPY continues to trade in a similar manner to GBP/USD. We are

currently testing the base of the range of the last month. Medium-term our

bias remains for a strong recovery given the longer-term structure.

However, the rise seen since 116.84 is deemed corrective in nature

suggesting scope for a return to 119.38 and then 116.84 in the near-term,

before a more lasting recovery.

As noted in prior reports, should this pair reach the 123.00 level, a degree of

resistance would be anticipated. In the meantime, we remain wary of the

short-term range bound environment but are re-instating the sell strategy at

123.00.

If the recent range bound trade is resolved to the downside, then the 120.00

level should provide a degree of support, from where a further leg higher

would be favoured to develop.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Sell limit 3 at 123.00, Objs: 122.00/121.00/120.00, Stop: 124.00

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Minor short-term down-trend develops.

EUR/JPY is likely to see a period of volatile trade due to its clear association

with EUR/USD which is now approaching the key 1.3146 level. We are also

wary of the possibility of coordinated intervention to maintain the stability of

the Euro as a currency. This acts as a manipulation of the market, making

technical analytics harder.

The clash in structure that we have noted in previous reports remains

present, with the recent rise from 102.49 being deemed as corrective.

However, the larger 100.76 111.60 rise is suggestive of a further leg

higher back towards 111.60. Thus the directional clash in two timeframes is

ever present.

As mentioned above, if EUR/USD breaks under 1.3146 this will end the

rising phase seen since 2010 and would likely be associated with a fall back

down to 100.76 and potentially lower.

It is preferred to see if a sustained break can be achieved under 1.3146 in

EUR/USD, before committing to any directional bias.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY

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Maintains hold above 0.8486 for now.

EUR/GBP met 0.8496 last Thursday from where an initial recovery phase

has evolved. While above 0.8486, the entire structure seen since this same

level is viewed as being corrective in nature, with scope for a further

recovery leg higher back to 0.8665 and then potentially on to 0.8700, our

favoured target zone. An earlier break under 0.8486 may finally signal a

breakdown of the prior long-term rising trend, which is shown on the Daily

chart to the left. However, we are wary of breaks lower in any timeframe in

EUR/GBP as they have proved hard to sustain in recent weeks and months.

The message that we take away from the recent six party central bank

coordination is that there is a demand for US Dollars amongst European

banks. This fact is a warning sign and a clear weakness, suggesting scope

for a credit contractionary phase. We continue to expect a return to rising

yields in the Euro-Zone and it is within this environment that we see the

potential for Sterling to be perceived as a safe haven.

Our bias remains mildly bearish and is supported by trade continuing under

both the 200 day and 50 week moving averages. As mentioned in prior

reports the 1.3146 level in EUR/USD remains key. A push under this level

will likely lead to weakness in all EUR crosses, as it will mark a breakdown

in confidence in the EUR and also end the rising trend that has been

witnessed since the 1.1876 low seen in the middle of 2010.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Sell limit 3 at 0.8700, Objs: 0.8565/0.8485/0.8285, Stop: 0.8835.

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

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The 50 week moving average continues to contain the upside.

EUR/CHF saw an initial push higher above the 50 week moving average

which again failed close to 1.2500, adding a further lower high to the

sequence seen since the middle of October. Since reaching the 50 week

moving average earlier in the year, it has acted as a decent region of

resistance, warning that the larger down-trend may not be over. We will

maintain our sell limit strategy at 1.2480 for now, as this represents a decent

trade location during thin Christmas markets. However, we look to see if a

break under 1.2226 can be achieved.

1.2226 will be used as a filter. Under 1.2226 we will swap our current sell

limit strategy to a sell stop strategy at 1.2130, with objectives at

1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 and a stop at 1.2230.

A rising sovereign yield environment may now be returning within the Euro-

Zone, as discussed in other parts of this report. We look to see if Italian 10

year sovereign yields can return to the 7.000% handle. It is these kinds of

pressures that may assist a return to and break of 1.2123/31. This

represents the real goal of a lasting breakdown in the recent range bound

structure.

The 1.2000 level is the only level that the SNB has suggested they will

defend. There is thus likely to be a large cluster of stops under this level,

which if triggered, could herald a return to the 1.0075 level.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Sell limit 3 at 1.2480, Objs: 1.2380/1.2226/1.1973, Stop: 1.2580.

EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

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Bearish breakout from triangle pattern targets $1600.

Golds bearish breakout from a multi-month triangle pattern targets initial

support at $1600/17. This is likely to accelerate from inter-market weakness

across related risk proxies such as EUR/USD and equity markets.

Moreover, there is still heightened risk for a much larger decline if we

confirm a weekly close beneath $1600/17 and $1530 (200-day MA/swing

low), which has not been breached in 3 years!

A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this

benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze

lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000 (12-year channelfloor).

Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached

a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

positions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would

ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity into summer 2012.

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

Special ReportGoldsmountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO

Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG&CNBCREPORTS)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

SHORT 3: 1705, Obj: 1605, 1530, 1300, Stop: 1750

GOLD

Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

TRENDCHANNEL(12 YEARS)

I

RISK ZONE III

CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINEINTO $1300 & $1040-1000

26%

34%

20%SO FAR

25%

II

COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS

OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG

GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT

IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

200-DMANOT BROKENIN 3 YEARS!

DEMARK SIGNALWARNED OF GOLDSOVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS

$1800

$1600

DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530

UPSIDE: 1760 / 1800

GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS

$1532

DOUBLETOP

$1760

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Key support at $30.0000.

Silver is holding around key support at 30.0000. Only a sustained close

below here would trigger a test of the previous swing low at 26.0700.

Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the

major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces

volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to

recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%

Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-

term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual

resumption higher.

Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated

higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.

This also helps explain recent divergences between gold and silver.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300

SILVER

Spot Silver daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

BULLMARKET

FROM1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

13

38.2%(32.3135)

50%(26.9150)

61.8%

(21.5165)

I

II

OVER 30YEAR BASE PATTERN

Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARKSELL

13 YEAR LEVEL

UNWINDING 70%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio

KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)

DEMARKSELL SIGNALS

Silver (Daily)

200 DMA(36.9204)

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Limitation of liability

MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,

including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests

MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or

have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be

moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

DISCLAIMERNo information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to

buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act

of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal

use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK

makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions

expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes

financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be

made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before

making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no

guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the

content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

LEGALTERMS

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www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

MIG [email protected]

14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

CONTACT

Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]