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MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

MA

S-TERMMULTI-DAY

L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/POSITION

ENTRYLEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.GBP/USD Await fresh signal.USD/JPY Await New Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.USD/CHF Sell limit 3 0.9610 0.9500/0.9306/0.9176 0.9700USD/CAD Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup above 1.0425.AUD/USD Await New Sell Trade Setup.GBP/JPY Long exited at 118.90.EUR/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8300 0.8222/0.8142/0.8068 0.8378EUR/CHF Sell Stop 3 1.2130 1.2010/1.1526/1.1002 1.2250GOLD Stopped for profit at 1605. Two objectives met.SILVER SHORT 2 34.1300 26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 30.0000

DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT9 January, 2012

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry

point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

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Temporary bullish unwinding targets 1.2870.

EUR/USD is temporarily unwinding from oversold conditions, having

recently broken under the major 2011 low at 1.2860 and reaching a fresh

new low at 1.2666.

The major trend remains bearish and so we prefer to sell into forthcoming

rallies, which are likely to be driven by temporary short covering.

Watch for near-term resistance to come in at 1.2820, then 1.2870 and

1.2920. Only a sustained break above here will offer extra gains into

1.3000 (psychological level).

Meanwhile, the bears need to push back beneath this years new low at

1.2666 to resume the major downtrend into 1.2588 (Aug 2010 low).

Inversely, the USD Index has extended its recovery higher to a new 12-

month high (a move worth over 10% from the summer 2010 lows).

Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are strengthening once again and will

continue to help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic

oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

Special Report:EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO

MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD Index daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

UPTREND2 YEARS

200-DMA(1.3964)

BERMUDATRIANGLE

EUR/USD (Daily)

BREAKOUT

ZONE(1.4000)

913

USD INDEX

200-DMA(76.24)

DEMARKBUY SIGNALS

BREAKOUT ZONE

EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

12 MONTHHIGH

KEYSUPPORT

(79.50)

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Range trade persists.

GBP/USD continues to trade within the confines of a month long trading

range between 1.5780 and 1.5362. A breakout is sought ahead of trade

positioning.

Sterling is still perceived as a relative safe haven given the continued

elevated yields seen in the Italian sovereign bond market. Thus, should

the region near long-term trend-line support be tested, currently at

1.5135, a degree of demand would be anticipated.

Longer-term, GBP/USD has been in a largely range bound environment

(for the last three years). With this in mind, we favour an eventual rise

towards the 200 day moving average, maintaining the old range from

last year.

Further strengthening of the USD may not be as aggressively witnessed

in GBP/USD, given the large move that took place in 2008.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Bears break from multi-day range and extends its PIR.

USD/JPY has weakened sharply beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level), as

price broke from a multi-day trading range (see hourly chart below).

Confirmation beneath 77.25 (pivot level) now helps trigger a third price

retracement, that we had been expecting, back to pre-intervention levels

and potentially even a new post world war record low beneath 75.35.

Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY

buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and

be the first to call the market bottom, within the end of this multi-year

contracting pattern.

This may first inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through

psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move

would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,

which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.

The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward

a major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle

inflection points to trigger over the next few weeks, offering a sustained

move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.

Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal VIDEO

Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change

Media Interviews: CNBC Squawk Box &Bloomberg Countdown(Reports:CNBC/Bloomberg)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426

USD/JPY

USD/JPY 120 mins chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

QUAKESHOCK!

POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)

G7MOVEHIGH

PIR II

POSTBOJ

MOVE (II)HIGH

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEAD

OF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)

POSTBOJ

MOVE IIIPIR III

MULTI-YEARPATTERN

ANTICIPATESBREAKOUT (85-80)

USD/JPY (120 MIN)POSTBOJMOVE (III)

KEY PIVOT LEVEL (77.25) TRIGGERS

POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT

DEMARKSELL SIGNAL

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Return towards the 200 DMA favoured medium-term.

If 0.9500 is met, then our strategy below will be negated and removed

from the Daily Technical Report.

USD/CHF has tested close to the 0.9600 region where it was

anticipated a degree of supply may manifest. If a continuation of the

current weakness were to occur, a break under 0.9306 would then

favour a return towards the 200 day moving average.

USD/CHF continues to be a tied to the fate of EUR/CHF and thus the

ability of the SNB to successfully maintain its floor in EUR/CHF at

1.2000. Fresh highs are still anticipated in 10 year Italian sovereign

yields, with scope then for a minor pullback, maintaining downside

pressure on USD/CHF.

10 year yields in Spain and Italy are currently trading at 5.665% and

7.110% versus 6.478% and 7.355%, before the US Dollar based swap

agreement. In both cases we can see that the effects of the swap

agreement appear to be wearing off. This reminds us that the

agreement was likely put in place due to a need for US Dollars by

European financial institutions. This is a clear warning sign. These

same yields were trading at 5.691% and 7.137% respectively last

Friday.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Sell limit 3 at 0.9610, Objs: 0.9500/0.9306/0.9176, Stop: 0.9700

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

USD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Weakening from pattern ceiling.

USD/CAD is weakening from its triangle pattern ceiling, which coincided

with an intraday DeMark exhaustion signal (see hourly chart).

The chart structure remains positive and so we prefer to wait for a strong

directional confirmation higher before initiating a buy trade setup.

Until then, intraday traders might find fast hit and run short trading

opportunities back into key support at 1.0080.

Meanwhile, the bulls need to push back above 1.0425 and 1.0524 (25

Nov swing high), in order to trigger a larger breakout from the rates multi-

month triangle pattern.

In terms of the big picture, a directional confirmation above 1.0680 is still

needed to unlock the recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the

upside breakout from the rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of

a major Elliott wave cycle (see chart insert).

EUR/CAD, which tends to share a positive correlation with EUR/USD, is

temporarily unwinding from oversold conditions. However, the previous

structural breach under the rates multi-month distribution pattern

continues to favour further downside pressure into 1.2760 (10th

Jan2010).

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup above 1.0425.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

USD/CAD

USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD (Daily)

200-DMA(0.9915)

BULLISHTRIANGLEPATTERN

USD/CAD (120 MIN)

KEY SUPPORT (1.0080)

DEMARKSIGNAL

DEMARKSELL SIGNAL

CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680

OPENS LARGERRECOVERY

DEMARKBUY SIGNAL

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Capped under 200-day average (1.0405).

AUD/USD remains capped under its 200-day moving average which has

been holding steady around 1.0405 for over 3 months.

Our cycle analysis remains bearish and favours downside pressure back

into parity, then 0.9862 (15th

Dec low) and 0.9664 (23rd

Nov low).

Keep in mind that such a move would signal a break from the multi-month

triangle pattern (see daily chart).

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar has weakened sharply against its

neighboring New Zealand counterpart. Near-term price activity is breaking

from a multi-month trading range and now fast approaching its 200-day

MA which is currently trading at 1.2972. Expect further setbacks over the

multi-day/week horizon into support at 1.2834 and 1.2319.

The Aussie dollar is weakening against the Japanese yen, while still

maintaining a neutral contracting trading range. Watch for key support at

76.98 to unlock further downside into 74.81.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Await New Sell Trade Setup.

AUD/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD 120 mins chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

KEYZONE

AUD/USD(1 YEAR) DEMARK

SELLSIGNALS

200-DMA(1.0405)

AUD/USD (120 MIN)

DEMARK

SELL SIGNAL

RANGE BREAKOUT

PIVOT LEVEL (1.0220)

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Towards 116.84 now favoured.

Long stopped at 118.90. Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY saw a clear break under the 119.00 low on Friday ending

hopes of a continuation of the recovery structure from this same level.

This failure to hold over 119.00 now suggests a re-test of the region

close to 116.84. Strong support is anticipated close to this level, should

weakness persist.

This is in line with our longer-term view, where it is perceived that there

is potential for a much larger recovery to develop with scope for a return

to 163.09 and then potentially on to 192.65. However, signs of basing

are still not evident in the medium-term timeframe.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Long exited at 118.90. Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Potential longer-term region of value.

EUR/JPY has now one last major target in its sights, the all time low at

88.97. It is also noted that in the daily timeframe we see possible signs

of exhaustion with the formation of a falling wedge. However, a break

over the resistance of this structure is required, currently at 100.15,

before a more lasting recovery may take place.

The fate of this pair is still tightly bound to the movement in EUR/USD,

particularly given the rangebound nature of USD/JPY over recent weeks

and months. As with any pair that includes the EUR, we will continue to

monitor Italian yields, anticipating a test of the 7.500% level in the 10

year maturity.

In the absence of further stresses out of the core Euro-Zone it would be

expected that a degree of support would be found close to current levels

for a longer-term recovery.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY

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Short-term pullback sought to enter short positions.

EUR/GBP is correcting higher in the short-term (hourly) timeframe.

Structure is still considered bearish and thus a lower high is sought in

the region of 0.8300. Medium-term we continue to seek a return

towards 0.8068 and potentially lower.

The more fluid trading characteristic of EUR/GBP is partly attributed to

the breakdown in EUR/USD under 1.3146, which has assisted short

positioning in other EUR crosses too.

Of continued concern is the elevated yield environment, particularly in

the Italian sovereign bond market. Our expectation of further downside

is made on the assumption that in a rising yield environment in the core

Euro-Zone, Sterling will be deemed as a safe haven of sorts. Focus

remains on the Italian bond market where yields are once again trading

over 7.000%, with a host of rollover auctions scheduled for the first half

of the year.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Sell limit 3 at 0.8300, Objs: 0.8222/0.8142/0.8068, Stop: 0.8378

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

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Sustained under 1.2131 to trigger an extension lower.

This strategy will be negated on a push back over the lower high at

1.2242.

EUR/CHF has again tested the 1.2130 region reaching 1.2131 thus fartoday. An eventual break under this level is anticipated which should

then enable a re-test of the key 1.2000 level. If a break under 1.2000

were to occur, the 1.1800 level would then become the main focus.

We maintain our bearish bias, given the price action in the weekly

timeframe, where a failure to break over the 50 week moving average

leads us to conclude that the larger down-trend is not yet complete.

Elevated yields in the Italian sovereign market are still being closely

monitored, with an expectation of a test of the 7.500% region in the 10

year maturity. Given the longer-term structure, it is doubtful that 7.500%

will cap this 10 year rate.

In an environment where 10 year Italian yields are trading at, or near,

7.000% it is likely that the Swiss Franc will see a degree of demand

despite the low deposit rates available.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2010/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2250.

EUR/CHF daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

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200-day average continues to maintain pressure.

Stopped for profit at 1605, having met two objectives.

Gold is re-testing its 200-day average, which was recently broken for the

first time in 3 years. The move was triggered by a multi-month trianglepattern breakout (see both daily and intraday charts).

A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will still be watching for any

potential recovery back above the 200-day average which is currently

trading at $1634.

Failure to do so will heighten risk for a much larger decline that we have

been anticipating, if a weekly close beneath $1530 is confirmed. Our cycle

analysis continues to highlight downside targets into $1300 and perhaps

even $1040-1000 (12-year channelfloor/see top chart insert).

Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached

a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

positions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would

ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity into this coming summer of

2012.

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

Special ReportGolds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO

Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG&CNBCREPORTS)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Short stopped for profit at 1605. Initial two objectives met.

GOLD

Gold daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

200-DMABROKEN

FIRST TIMEIN 3 YEARS!

DEMARK SIGNALWARNED OF GOLDSOVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS

$1800

$1600

DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 / $1300UPSIDE: $1634 / $1760 / $1800GOLD KEY LEVELS

$1532

DOUBLETOP

$1760

CONFIRMATIONBENEATH $1532TARGETS $1300

CYCLE FAVOURS DECLINEINTO $1300 & $1040-00

TRENDCHANNEL

(12 YEARS)

GOLD (60 MIN)

SHARPDECLINE

WEAKRECOVERY

Gold hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Returns again towards the $30.0000 level.

Lowered stop level to 30.0000, ensuring a risk free trade and locking in

profits on our short position which was initiated from 34.1300.

Silvers weak recovery from oversold conditions has tested key support

turned resistance at $30.0000. A sustained close below here now triggers

a test of the previous swing low at $26.0700, reaching 26.1600 so far.

Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following

the major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally

produces volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough

time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000 - 26.0700 over the

multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165

(61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain

silvers long-term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for

the eventual resumption higher.

Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio (see top chart insert) which

has now accelerated higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over

the next few weeks. This also helps explain recent divergences between

gold and silver.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

SHORT 2: 34.1300, Objs: 26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 30.0000

SILVER

Spot Silver hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Spot Silver daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

DEMARKSELL SIGNALS

Silver (Daily)

200 DMA(36.1770)

13 YEAR LEVEL

UNWINDING 70%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

Gold/Silver"Mint" Ratio

SILVER (60 MIN)

WEAKRECOVERY

PSYCHOLOGICAL(30.0000)

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Limitation of liability

MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,

including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests

MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or

have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be

moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

DISCLAIMERNo information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to

buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act

of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal

use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK

makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions

expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes

financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be

made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before

making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no

guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the

content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

LEGALTERMS

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www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

MIG [email protected]

14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

CONTACT

Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]