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MIG BANK /Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

MA

S-TERMMULTI-DAY

L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/POSITION

ENTRYLEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD Await fresh signal.GBP/USD Await fresh signal.USD/JPY Await new buy trade setup above 80.00.USD/CHF Looking to sell.USD/CAD Awaiting new buy trade setup.AUD/USD Await fresh signal.GBP/JPY Buy limit 3 119.40 120.50/121.50/122.00 118.90EUR/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8425 0.8325/0.8142/0.8050 0.8525EUR/CHF Sell Stop 3 1.2130 1.2010/1.1526/1.1002 1.2250GOLD SHORT 1 1705 1300 (Entered 12/12/2011) 1605SILVER SHORT 2 34.1300 26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 34.1300

DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT3 January, 2012

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry

point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

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Recovers short-term after probing under 1.2946.

EUR/USD has registered a lower high at 1.3199 and is currently

recovering after probing under 1.2946.

Our cycle analysis successfully signalled increased volatility within the

first two weeks of December across risk proxies, including the equity

and commodity markets.

We have also seen a re-test of the major low in 2011 at 1.2860, reaching

1.2858 thus far.

Inversely, the USD Index has extended its recovery higher to 80.85 so far

(a move worth over 10% from the summer 2010 lows).

Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are strengthening once again and will

continue to help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic

oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

Special Report:EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO

MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Await fresh signal.

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD Index daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Remains mired in an hourly consolidation band.

GBP/USD continues to trade in a tight hourly range between 1.5780 and

1.5362.

Sterling is still perceived as a relative safe haven given the continued

elevated yields seen in the Italian sovereign bond market. With this in

mind, should the region near long-term trend-line support be tested,

currently at 1.5135, a degree of demand would be anticipated.

For now a rise towards the 200 day moving average is possible,

maintaining the old range from last year. Further strengthening of the

USD may not be as aggressively witnessed in GBP/USD, given the

large move that took place in 2008.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Bears break from multi-day range.

USD/JPY has weakened sharply beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level), asprice broke from a multi-day trading range (see hourly chart below).

Confirmation beneath 77.25 (pivot level) now helps trigger a third price

retracement back that we had been expecting to pre-intervention levels

and potentially even a new post world war record low beneath 75.35.

Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY

buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and

be the first to call the market bottom, within the end of this multi-year

contracting pattern.

This may first inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through

psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move

would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,

which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.

The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward

a major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle

inflection points to trigger over the next few weeks, offering a sustained

move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.

Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal VIDEO

Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural ChangeMedia Reports: CNBC /Squawk Box &Bloomberg

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Awaiting renewed buy trade setup above 80.00.

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426

USD/JPY

USD/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Further phase lower anticipated to break under 0.9244.

USD/CHF appears to be within the midst of a corrective phase in the

hourly timeframe, with 0.9470 potentially being a lower high for a fresh

push back down to 0.9244 and lower. Should an earlier break over0.9470 take place then the 0.9550 region is expected to act as strong

resistance once again.

Focus remains on movements in EUR/CHF over coming days.

EUR/CHF is now nearing our trigger level at 1.2130. This has the

potential to kick start the SNB and may lead to a spike higher in

USD/CHF if they were to react to further strengthening of the Swiss

Franc.

Fresh highs are still anticipated in 10 year Italian sovereign yields, with

scope then for a minor pullback in yields, maintaining downside

pressure on USD/CHF.

10 year yields in Spain and Italy are currently trading at 5.140% and

6.846% versus 6.478% and 7.355%, before the US Dollar based swap

agreement. These yields were trading at 5.217% and 7.092%

respectively on 29 December.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Looking to sell.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

USD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Unwinding from resistance at 1.0425.

USD/CAD is unwinding sharply from intraday resistance at 1.0425, which

coincided with a short-term DeMark exhaustion signal.

We prefer to wait for a strong directional confirmation higher before

initiating a buy trade setup.

A sustained break under 1.0220 now suggests further downside into

1.0000.

Meanwhile, the bulls need to push back above 1.0425 and 1.0524 (25

Nov swing high), in order to trigger a larger breakout from the rates multi-

month triangle pattern.

In terms of the big picture, a directional confirmation above 1.0680 is still

needed to unlock the recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the

upside breakout from the rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of

a major Elliott wave cycle.

EUR/CAD has breached the base of an important multi-month distribution

pattern. Sustained beneath 1.3393-79 (19th

Sept low/61.8% Fib), now

signals an important breakdown. and provides substantial correlation

pressure onto EUR/USD.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Awaiting new buy trade setup above 1.0425.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

USD/CAD

USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Breaks higher out of triangular consolidation.

AUD/USD has seen a clear break higher out of the triangular

consolidation that we highlighted last week. This now opens up a return

to 1.0380 immediately and then 1.0753.

Elsewhere, the Aussie has weakened against the New Zealand dollar.

Near-term price activity has mean reverted back over the 200-day MA

and we watch for further setbacks over the multi-day/week horizon.

The Aussie dollar is also pairing back its mild recovery against the

Japanese yen, while holding above the neck-line of its two-year

distribution pattern.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Short-term recovery anticipated towards 122.00.

GBP/JPY has tested under 119.38, reaching 119.00 thus far. The

failure to remain below 119.38 now warns of a short-term recovery

phase back towards 122.00, ahead of a possible return to weakness.

Medium-term a re-test of 116.84 is feasible, however, it is anticipated

that strong support will be seen if a return to this level can be realised.

This is in line with our longer-term view, where it is anticipated that a

much larger recovery will develop with scope for a return to 163.09 and

then potentially on to 192.65. However, signs of basing are still not

evident in the longer-term timeframe.

There is scope here for the Sterling element of this pair to offer some

strength in the event that Euro-Zone related stresses lead to further Yen

cross weakness.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Buy limit 3 at 119.40, Objs: 120.50/121.50/122.00, Stop 118.90.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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Short-term respite possible, back towards 102.54.

EUR/JPY has seen a sharp break under 100.76 meeting 98.66 thus far.

In doing so an exhaustion pattern appears to have formed in the hourly

timeframe suggesting scope for a further swing to the upside. Initial

sights are set on 101.00 with scope then for 102.54.

The fate of this pair is still tightly bound to the movement in EUR/USD,

particularly given the rangebound nature of USD/JPY over recent weeks

and months. As with any pair that includes the EUR, we will continue to

monitor Italian yields, anticipating a test of the 7.5% level in the 10 year

maturity.

Failure to recover to the 101.50 region will instead target 96.84, the mid

December low from 2000.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY

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Return to 0.8422 possible while above 0.8303.

A break under 0.8303 will negate the strategy given below.

EUR/GBP has tested the region close to our short entry price. While

above 0.8303 in the hourly timeframe a return to this region remainspossible and is expected. An earlier break under 0.8303 will initially

target 0.8142 and then 0.8068/50.

Shorts in EUR related crosses may be easier to maintain without being

subject to false breaks in either direction, now that EUR/USD has

broken clearly under the key 1.3146 level.

Rising yields in the core Euro-Zone sovereign bond markets is a

continued concern and one that may impact the FX markets going

forward. Within this environment Sterling may well be judged as a short-

term safe haven, further adding to the potential for downside pressure

ahead. Focus remains on the Italian bond market where the results of

auctions throughout the first half of the year will be watched closely.

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Sell limit 3 at 0.8425, Objs: 0.8325/0.8142/0.8050, Stop: 0.8525

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

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Tests close to trigger level at 1.2130.

This strategy will be negated on a push back over the lower high at

1.2242.

EUR/CHF tested the region close to our trigger level at 1.2130, reaching1.2133 thus far. A return to this level is still anticipated while under

1.2242 in the hourly timeframe. If a break under 1.2130 can be

sustained a test of the 1.2000 level is anticipated and then on to 1.1800.

The failure to hold above the 50 week moving average towards the end

of last year also warns of a return to the larger down-trend. This

scenario will clearly be assisted by a break under 1.2000.

The Italian 10 year sovereign yield remains elevated, trading close to

7.000%. Focus now turns to rollover funding issues, coupled with a

likely bout of negative growth in Italy, an unhealthy combination.

The Swiss Franc is still deemed to have the capacity to be sought as a

safe haven despite the low yield available on France deposits.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2010/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2250.

EUR/CHF daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

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Gold weakens after testing its 200-day average as resistance.

Second objective met. Stop moved to 1605.

Gold has re-tested its 200-day average, which was recently broken for the

first time in 3 years. The move was triggered by a multi-month trianglepattern breakout (see both daily and intraday charts).

There is still heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly

close beneath $1600 and $1530 (swing low).

A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this

benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze

lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000 (12-year channelfloor/see

top chart insert).

Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached

a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

positions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would

ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity into summer 2012.

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

Special ReportGolds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO

Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG&CNBCREPORTS)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

SHORT 1: 1705, Obj: 1300, Stop: 1605

GOLD

Gold daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

Gold hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

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including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests

MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or

have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be

moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

DISCLAIMERNo information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to

buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act

of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal

use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK

makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions

expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes

financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be

made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before

making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no

guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the

content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

LEGALTERMS

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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT3 January, 2012

www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

MIG [email protected]

14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 NeuchtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

CONTACT

Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]