17th september,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

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Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter Contents are published with permission of ORYZA.com

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Vol 5.Issue XIV

September 17, 2015

Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter

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Italy Paddy Sales Sluggish in New Crop Year

Due to Low Availability of Stocks

Sep 16, 2015

Italian paddy sales in the first week of the new crop year 2015-16 (September 1, 2015 - August

31, 2016) have remained sluggish due to low availability of stocks, according to local sources.

Around 25,421 tons of paddy were sold during September 1-8, 2015, down about 41.5% from

around 43,459 tons sold during the same time last year. Since most the beginning stocks of 2014-

15 crop year were exhausted, only a few available quantities from the last crop year were sold.

About 12,455 tons of Long A varieties, around 10,585 tons of Long B varieties, around 1,716

tons of round varieites and 665 tons of medium varieties are sold during the week.

Official quotations on Italian grain exchanges have not yet started, But as per unofficial

quotations in Vercelli on September 15, round varieties were quoted at 30-32 euros (about $

33.8-36 ) per ton; Long A varieties Augusti and Loto varieties were quoted at 30 euros (about $

33.8 ) per ton, Sant'Andrea was quoted at 40 euros (about $ 45), and Volando and Carnaroli were

quoted at 55-60 euros (about $ 61.9-67.6) per ton.

Pakistan Basmati Rice Export Prices

Increase Slightly in August 2015

Sep 16, 2015

Pakistan basmati rice export prices have increased in August 2015 after declining continuously

for three months, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).The increase

can be attributed to an expected surge in basmati rice exports to Iran as the Middle East nation is

understood to have agreed to lift of sanctions on rice imports from Pakistan. Also the exporters

are lobbying for a rice-energy barter trade between the two nations. Last three months, prices

declined due to expected higher production in the country.

In August 2015, Pakistan's basmati rice export prices have increased by about 2% to around

$888 per ton from around $868 per ton in July 2015, and down about 38% from their year-ago

levels of around $1,430 per ton. In terms of local currency, average Pakistan basmati rice prices

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in August 2015 increased by about 2% to around PKR 89,914 per ton from around PKR 87,759

per ton in July 2015, and down about 38% from around PKR 144,430 per ton in August 2014.

Average Pakistan basmati rice prices stood at around $918 per ton in the first eight months of

2015 (January - August), down about 33% from around $1,359 per ton recorded during the same

period last year.

Average basmati rice prices increased between July and September 2014 and peaked to around

$1,450 per ton in September 2014 due to fears of a fall in production as floods affected large area

of basmati rice acreage in Punjab. However, the overall production of basmati rice has not been

significantly affected by floods.

Currently, Pakistan basmati growers have been urging the government to provide adequate

support to increase competitiveness of Pakistan's basmati rice in the global market.

Conab Estimates Brazil 2014-15 Paddy Rice

Production to Increase Despite Fall in

Acreage

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Sep 16, 2015

Brazil’s National Grains Supply Company (Conab) has forecasted the country's 2014-15 paddy

rice production at around 12.449 million tons (around 8.6 million tons, basis milled), up about

2.7% from around 12.121 million tons (around 8.24 million tons, basis milled) in 2013-14.

Conab has estimated Brazil's 2014-15 paddy rice acreage at around 2.295 million hectares, down

about 3.3% from around 2.373 million hectares in 2013-14.

Most of the decline in acreage is expected in the North/Northeast region. Rice acreage in the

North/Northeast regions is estimated at around 738,200 hectares, down 8.7% from around

808,400 hectares in 2013-14. On the other hand, paddy rice acreage in the key rice growing

Centro-Sul (Center-South) region is projected at 1.557 million hectares in 2014-15, slightly

down from around 1.565 million hectares in 2013-14.

Average rice yield in Brazil in 2014-15 is projected at around 5.4 tons per hectare, up about 5.7%

from around 5.11 tons per hectare recorded in the previous year.

USDA estimates Brazil MY 2015-16 (April – March) paddy rice production at around 11.765

million tons (around 8 million tons, basis milled), down about 6% from an estimated 12.5 million

tons (around 8.5 million tons, basis milled) in MY 2014-15. It estimates Brazil’s 2015-16 paddy

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rice acreage to decline slightly to around 2.3 million hectares. USDA estimates Brazil to export

around one million tons of rice and import around 550,000 tons of rice in 2015.

Asian Rice Quotes Mixed Today

Sep 16, 2015

Thailand rice sellers lowered their quotes for parboiled rice by about $5 per ton to around $340-

$350 per ton today. Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice, 100% broken

rice and Jasmine rice by about $5 per ton each to around $325-$335 per ton, $305-$315 per ton

and $450-$460 per ton respectively. India rice sellers lowered their quotes for parboiled rice by

about $10 per ton to around $350-$360 per ton. Pakistan rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5%

broken rice by about $5 per ton to around $310-$320 per ton.

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $335 - $345 per ton, about $10 per ton premium on

Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $325 - $335 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday. India

5% rice is indicated at around $375 - $385 per ton, about $65 per ton premium on Pakistan 5%

rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $325 - $335 per ton, about $5 per ton premium on

Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $320- $330 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around

$340 - $350 per ton, about $50 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $290 -

$300 per ton.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $340 - $350 per ton, down about $5 per ton from

yesterday. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $350- $360 per ton, down about $10 per ton

from yesterday and about $65 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last shown at around

$415 - $425 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $305 - $315 per ton, on par with Vietnam

100% broken rice shown at around $305 - $315 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday.

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India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $300 - $310 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on

Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $275 - $285 per ton.

India Forecasts 2015-16 Kharif Rice

Production to Decline Slightly from Last Year

Sep 16, 2015

The government of India forecasts 2015-16 kharif (June - December) rice production at around

90.6 million tons, slightly down from around 90.86 million tons in 2014-15.

Total rice planted area to the 2015-16 kharif rice crop stood at around 36.841 million hectares as

of September 11, 2015, slightly up from around 36.651 million hectares planted during the same

time last year. Planting operations have been so far satisfactory despite concerns of weaker rains

in the monsoon season (June-September) due to an El Nino weather pattern.

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The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted the El Nino pattern to reach to

moderate to a strong one during the monsoon season (June – September). It has forecast a 16%

deficit in the rainfall during the second half (August-September) of the monsoon season (June-

September).

Concerns of a slight reduction in kharif rice output may push up both domestic and export prices

in the next few months.

The government forecasts the total kharif food grain output at around 124.05 million tons.

The government estimates 2014-15 rice production to decline about 2% y/y to around 104.8

million tons due to below average rains during the kharif main rice crop planting process (June -

September 2014) in many key rice growing areas and unseasonal rains and hailstorms during

February and March 2015.

Italian Expo 2015 Highlights Rice Growing

Cultures in Various Countries

Sep 16, 2015

Various rice growing countries, including Bangladesh, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and Sierra

Leone have exhibited their rice booths in the Italian rice expo, which is taking place in Milan.

A rice booth will demonstrate how rice grows, including how the water covers and protects the

seedlings. It also conveys the feel of vastness, the colors and scents of rice fields to visitors.

Anyone visiting the rice booths will have a chance to get a glimpse of rice growing cultures in

various countries. They can also understand how the farmers in those countries changed their

cultivation patterns with time.

Within the booths in the expo, visitors can experience a rural setting featuring different varieties

of rice growing in fields. A kaleidoscopic effect is created with mirrors in the booths.

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Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Pull Back as Market Reassesses

Fundamental Outlook

Sep 16, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Nov delivery settled 10.5 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at

$12.865 per cwt (about $284 per ton). The other grains finished the day in the red; Soybeans

closed about 0.2% lower at $8.8725 per bushel; wheat finished about 1.3% lower at $4.8825 per

bushel, and corn finished the day about 1.2% lower at $3.8600 per bushel.

U.S. stocks traded higher Wednesday as investors eyed a jump in oil and the beginning of the

Federal Reserve's key two-day meeting. The energy sector briefly rose more than 2.5% to lead

S&P advancers. Weekly crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell, supporting further gains in oil

prices. Crude earlier surged more than 5.5%, while brent was temporarily up more than 7%

above $50 a barrel. The Federal Open Market Committee could raise short-term interest rates for

the first time in nine years in its two-day meeting that began Wednesday. All eyes are on

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Thursday afternoon's expected statement and press conference. Wall Street is divided over

whether the central bank will decide to raise rates. Stocks rallied more than 1% Tuesday, more

than recouping Monday's mild losses.

The Dow Jones industrial average joined the other major averages to end within 10% of its 52-

week high, out of correction territory. Other analysts said the rally meant the Fed would hold off

on tightening Thursday. European shares rose, with the STOXX Europe up nearly 1.5%. Asian

stocks ended the session on a firm note. China's benchmark Shanghai Composite index staged a

late-day rally to close almost 5% higher — adding to upbeat sentiment in global stock markets.

In late-morning trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 92 points, or 0.56%, at

16,692. The S&P 500 traded up 11 points, or 0.58%, at 1,989, with energy leading seven sectors

higher and health care, financials and telecommunications declining. The Nasdaq traded up 14

points, or 0.30%, at 4,875. Gold is trading about 1.5% higher, crude oil is seen trading about

4.6% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.4% lower about 1:00pm Chicago time.

Tuesday, there were 417 contracts traded, down from 907 contracts traded on Monday. Open

interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Tuesday increased by 442 contracts to

10,700.

ABARES Estimates Australia 2015-16 Paddy

Rice Production to Decline Sharply on Low

Acreage

Sep 16, 2015

Australia's paddy rice production in MY 2015-16 (April 2015 - March 2016) is estimated to

decline to around 655,000 tons (around 517,450 tons, basis milled), down about 10% from an

estimated 724,000 tons (around 570,380 tons, basis milled) in MY 2014-15, according to data

from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).In

its September crop outlook report, the ABARES attributes the decline in paddy rice production

to a 7% y/y decline in planting area to around 65,000 hectares as well as a 7% y/y decline in

average yield to around 10 tons per hectare.

Total summer crop production is estimated to have declined by 7% y/y in 2014–15 to 4.39

million tons, due to decline in production of all summer crops, including rice. The area planted to

summer crops declined by 17% y/y to around 1.24 million hectares. Rice is grown in the states of

New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland.

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The

weather report issued by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) on 27 August 2015 suggests that

wetter than average conditions were more likely for most cropping regions in New South Wales,

Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia during September - November 2015. It expects

close to average conditions across most cropping regions in Queensland. It is reported

thatAugust rainfall was average to above average in most major summer cropping regions in

northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. This rainfall increased the level of upper

layer soil moisture, encouraging crop planting.The BOM maintains that El Nino weather pattern

is likely to bring average winter and spring rainfall in eastern Australia.

Government of Thailand Estimates Paddy

Rice Production to Reach Lowest Level in 19

Years

Sep 16, 2015

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The Thai Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) has estimated that Thailand's 2015-16 paddy

rice production may plunge to the lowest level in 19 years due to the extending drought

conditions and water shortages, according to Bloomberg.

The OAE told reporters that the Thai paddy rice production may fall to 22.98 million tons in

2015-16, down about 30% from around 32.62 million tons last year.

Farmers are likely to be restricted to plant rice between November 1, 2015 to April 30, 2016 due

to water shortages, according to the Agriculture Minister. Cabinet is yet to make an official

announcement regarding the same.

Lower production in Thailand and other Asian nations due to the drought inducing El Nino

pattern is expected to tighten global rice supplies further impacting prices. ―A potential fall in

output could gradually boost prices by up to $20 a ton by the end of this year,‖ a Bangkok-based

trader was quoted. Domestic prices may climb to 9,000 to 10,000 baht ($278) a ton from around

8,000 now," he added.

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Meanwhile, Thailand has about 13.5 million tons in stocks and the government targets to export about

10 million tons of rice this year.

European Paddy, Rice Quotes Show Slight

Movements in First Week of New Crop Year

Sep 16, 2015

European paddy quotes in the first week (September 1-8) of the crop year 2015-16 (September -

August) showed some slight movements with opposite trends in different countries, according to

the European quotations supplied by the European Union (EU) on May 12, 2015.

SPAIN - Japonica paddy remained firm at 288 euros (about $ 324 ) per ton on September 8.

Indica paddy did not move from 283 euros (about $ 318) per ton. Milled Japonica rice quoted

586 euros (about $ 660) per ton on both weeks.

PORTUGAL - Portuguese rice received no quotations.

GREECE – On September 8, medium paddy variety received no quotations, while Long paddy

remained unchanged at 470 euros (about $ 529) from last week. Indica paddy received no

quotations.

ROMANIA - Japonica paddy prices were declined slightly to 318 euros (about $ 358) per ton

from 324 euros (about $ 365) per ton on September 1. Indica paddy quotes were unchanged at

340 euros (about $ 383) per ton quoted on September 1, As for milled rice, on September 8,

Japonica quotes increased to 868 euros (about $ 978) per ton from 759 euros (about $ 855) per

ton on September 1. Indica milled rice quoted increased to 858 euros (about $ 966) per ton on

September 8, from 761 euros (about $ 857) per ton on September 1.

BULGARIA - Japonica paddy quotations are firm at 294 euros (about $ 331) per ton. Japonica

milled rice prices were unchanged at 872 euros (about $ 982) per ton.

FRANCE - On September 8, round milled rice declined to 550 euros (about $ 619) per ton

from 560 euro (about $ 631) per ton on September 1, as well as Long B that declined from 590

euros (about $ 664) per ton on September 1 to 550 euros (about $ 619) per ton on September 8.

Long A reached 560 euros (about $ 631) per ton on September 8 from 550 euro (about $ 619) per

ton on September 1.

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Indonesia May Import Rice if Needed, Says

Vice-President

Sep 16, 2015

The government of Indonesia may decide to import rice this year if the impact of El Nino on rice

production is severe, Bloomberg quoted the country's Vice-President as saying.

He told reporters that government needs to monitor the impact of El Nino on the country's food

production. He also noted that the government should re-evaluate this year's 75 million tons

paddy rice estimate amid extending drought conditions.

The government has so far not imported any rice this year. It is keen on achieving self-

sufficiency in rice production and avoid imports this year. Even till recently, the government has

been hopeful of achieving sufficient rice production. However, now the government is likely to

take back its decision on imports.

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Meanwhile, analysts are predicting that Indonesia may have to import about 1.6 million tons of

rice this year to maintain stocks and stabilize prices.

USDA estimates Indonesia to produce around 36.3 million tons of rice, basis milled (around

57.17 million tons, basis paddy), and import around 1.25 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15

(October - September).

U.S. Rice Industry Opposes Emerging TPP

Deal with Japan

Sep 16, 2015

The U.S. rice industry is opposing the emerging Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal with Japan

and made it clear that they would not support the deal if their demands on tariff free higher quota

and quality access to Japan's rice market are not met, according to Inside U.S. Trade.

The Chief Operating Officer of USA Rice told reporters that they are urging the U.S. Trade

Representative (USTR) to negotiate a better deal for U.S. rice. The U.S. wants Japan to increase

tariff free rice imports from the U.S. to 175,000 tons from the existing 50,000 tons, as well as

provide quality access to its markets (U.S. producers want Japan to allow them to sell directly to

consumers instead of the government agencies).

Japan has been reluctant to increase the quota to 175,000 is negotiating to close at 70,000-

100,000 tons. Currently it restricts rice imports through a tariff-rate quota set at roughly 682,200

metric tons on a milled rice basis and the U.S. accounts for nearly half the imports. While

imports within the quota are interest free, remaining are subject to a duty rate of 341 yen per

kilogram, or around$3,400 per ton. Therefore the U.S. rice sector says it is unviable for them to

ship rice outside the quota.

Meanwhile, the TPP countries are likely to hold their next meeting on the U.S. during the last

week of September.

PM'S Agriculture Relief Package Does Not

Cover Rice Export Sector, Says REAP

Chairman

Sep 16, 2015

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The Chairman of the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP) has expressed

dissatisfaction that the agriculture relief package has not considered the demands of the rice

exporters, according to local sources.

He noted that the Rs.5,000 per acre (around $120 per hectare) subsidy is not sufficient for

basmati rice farmers. He also noted that the government has not mentioned an appropriate

support price for super basmati, whose prices have been declining.

The REAP Chairman also pointed out that the PM did not specify any loan waivers, or refund of

withholding tax to millers and exporters. He noted that the government was also silent on the

withdrawal of 3.5% withholding tax on local purchase of rice.

He also noted that no mention was made regarding research and development in the rice sector.

He reiterated that the country's Rice Research Institutes have not provided new and quality

basmati seed since last 15-20 years.

The Chairman urged the government to consider certain demands such as helping them deal with

shipping companies which increase prices suddenly when new crop receives the market, refund

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of sales tax, enhancing the funds of the Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) to

support the rice exports.

He warned that if these issues are not addressed, rice export trade would witness an alarming

decline and exporters have to struggle to survive.

Global Rice Quotes

September 16th, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 350-360 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 325-335 ↑

India 5% broken 375-385 ↔

Pakistan 5% broken 310-320 ↓

Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 420-430 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 530-540 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken 535-545 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 530-540 ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 325-335 ↔

Vietnam 25% broken 315-325 ↔

Pakistan 25% broken 290-300 ↔

Cambodia 25% broken 405-415 ↔

India 25% broken 340-350 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 500-510 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

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Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 340-350 ↓

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 415-425 ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 350-360 ↓

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 570-580 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 545-555 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 810-820 ↔

Vietnam Jasmine 450-460 ↑

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 830-840 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 305-315 ↔

Vietnam 100% broken 305-315 ↑

Pakistan 100% broken stxd 275-285 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 355-365 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 300-310 ↔

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 335-345 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

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USDA Estimates 2015 Global Rice Trade to

Decline 2% y/y to 42.5 Million

Sep 16, 2015

In its September Rice Outlook report, USDA forecasts 2015 global rice trade at around 42.5

million tons, down 2% from an estimated 43.4 million tons in 2014, and unchanged from last

month's forecast. USDA expects a 2 million ton or 18% decline y/y in 2015 Thai rice exports and

weaker shipments from Egypt, but says an increase from other countries such as India, Pakistan

and the U.S. may not fully compensate for fall in Thai exports.On the exports side, USDA raised

projections for India rice exports based on shipment pace so far and larger supplies. It however

lowered export forecast for Vietnam and the U.S. based on slow pace of sales. On the imports

side, USDA lowered prospects only for Brazil based on shipment pace.

USDA estimates global rice trade in 2016 at around 42.2 million tons, slightly down from last

month's forecast of 42.3 million tons and estimates 42.5 million tons in 2015. It lowered 2016

export prospects for Myanmar and the U.S, but increased forecasts for India and Australia. It

raised 2016 import forecasts for Indonesia, but lowered for Chile.

17th september,2015 daily exclusive oryza rice e newsletter by riceplus magazine

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