U N I V E R S I T Y O F A A R H U S Faculty of Agricultural Sciences Climate change impact on winter wheat yield and nitrogen leaching Preliminary analysis.
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U N I V E R S I T Y O F A A R H U S
Faculty of Agricultural Sciences
Climate change impact on winter wheat yield
and nitrogen leaching
Preliminary analysis
Tove Heidmann & Jørgen E. OlesenDepartment of Agroecology
Methods
Daisy model Simulations for selected regions in
Europe Baseline climate data from
MARS/STAT database at JRC (1976-2004)
Future climate data from ENSEMBLES Two crops: winter wheat and spring
barley
MARS/STAT grid
Thresholds
20 % decrease in yield
10 % decrease in yield
Nitrogen leaching > 25 kg N/ha
Example - preliminary work
Future climate data from perturbed physics experiment (2050-70)
Two locations: Denmark and South Germany
Crop: winter wheat Fertilisation: optimum N rate Soil type: same soil type at both sites
(14 % clay in top soil)
Cumulative probability plot of temperature change and
precipitation change
1 2 3 4 5 6-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Temperature change (oC)
Precip
itation
chan
ge (%
)
South Germany 2050-70
90-100
80-90
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-101 2 3 4 5 6
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Temperature change (oC)
Precip
itation
chan
ge (%
)
Denmark 2050-70
90-100
80-90
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
Changes in climate
South Germany: Precipitation: -15, -10, -5, 0, +5, +10, +15 % Temperature: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6 oC
Denmark Precipitation: -10, -5, 0, +5, +10, +15, +20,
+25 % Temperature: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6 oC
Changes in climate
Two different situations
Precipitation evenly distributed on all months
Seasonal variation in precipitation included
Seasonal variation in climate(from Ruosteenoja et al., 2003)
Including seasonal variation in precipitation distribution
South Germany
Decrease: Decrease in precipitation during May – Nov.
(larger decrease during Jul. – Aug.) Unchanged precipitation during Dec. – Feb.
Increase Unchanged precipitation during Jun. – Aug. Increase in precipitation during the rest of the
period (larger increase during Dec. – Feb.)
South Germany, 20% yield decrease
0 1 2 3 4 5 6-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Temperature change (oC)
Pre
cip
itatio
n c
ha
ng
e (%
)South Germany
Seasonal precipitation distribution
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Temperature change (oC)
Pre
cip
itatio
n c
ha
ng
e (%
)
South Germany Uniform precipitation distribution
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
South Germany, 10 % yield decrease
0 1 2 3 4 5 6-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Temperature change (oC)
Precip
itaiton
chan
ge (%
)
South Germany Uniform precipitation distribution
90-100
80-90
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Temperature change (oC)
Pre
cip
itatio
n c
ha
ng
e (%
)South Germany
Seasonal precipitation distribution
80-90
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
South Germany, Leaching > 25 kg N/ha
0 1 2 3 4 5 6-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Temperature change (oC)
Precip
itation
chan
ge (%
)
South GermanySeasonal precipitation distribution
45-50
40-45
35-40
30-35
25-30
20-25
15-20
10-15
5-10
0-5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Temperature change (oC)
Precip
itation
chan
ge (%
)
South GermanyUniform precipitation distribution
35-40
30-35
25-30
20-25
15-20
10-15
5-10
0-5
Seasonal variation in climate (from Ruosteenoja et al., 2003)
Including seasonal variation in precipitation distribution
Denmark
Increase: Increase in precipitation during Sep. – May Decrease in precipitation during Jun. – Aug.
Decrease: All the decrease in Jun. – Aug. The rest of the months unchanged
Denmark, 20 % yield decrease
0 1 2 3 4 5 6-10-505
10152025
Temperature chagnge (oC)
Precip
itation
ch
ang
e (%)
DenmarkUniform precipitation distribution
90-100
80-90
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Temperature change (oC)
Precip
itation
ch
ang
e (%)
DenmarkSeasonal precipitation distribution 90-100
80-90
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
Denmark, 10 % yield decrease
0 1 2 3 4 5 6-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Temperature change (oC)
Precip
itation
ch
ang
e (%)
DenmarkUniform precipitation distribution
90-100
80-90
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Temperature change (oC)
Pre
cip
itatio
n
ch
an
ge
(%)
DenmarkSeasonal precipitation distribution 90-100
80-90
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
Denmark, leaching > 25 kg N/ha
0 1 2 3 4 5 6-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Temperature change (oC)
Precip
itation
chan
ge (%
)
DenmarkUniform precipitation distribution
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Temperature change (oC)
Precip
itation
chan
ge (%
)
DenmarkSeasonal precipitation distribution
80-90
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
Response surfaces in combination with probabilistic information on
future climate
1 2 3 4 5 6-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Temperature change (oC)
Precip
itation
chan
ge (%
)
Denmark 2050-70
90-100
80-90
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Temperature change (oC)
Precipitation change (%
)
DenmarkSeasonal precipitation distribution
80-90
70-80
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40
20-30
10-20
0-10
Remarks
Baseline climate from 1976-2004, should be 1960-90
CO2 concentration not included in simulations
Preliminary conclusion
Calculations of nitrogen leaching is more sensitive to seasonal variation in climate data than the calculations of crop yields.
Future work
Seasonal relationships between meteorological variables in future climate data will be investigated
Include CO2-concentrations, fixed for each time period
Include the seasonal variation in climate in the calculations
Simulations with two crops: winter wheat and spring barley
Simulations for more locations and local soil types
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