U N I V E R S I T Y O F A A R H U S Faculty of Agricultural Sciences Climate change impact on winter wheat yield and nitrogen leaching Preliminary analysis.

U N I V E R S I T Y O F A A R H U S

Faculty of Agricultural Sciences

Climate change impact on winter wheat yield

and nitrogen leaching

Preliminary analysis

Tove Heidmann & Jørgen E. OlesenDepartment of Agroecology

Methods

Daisy model Simulations for selected regions in

Europe Baseline climate data from

MARS/STAT database at JRC (1976-2004)

Future climate data from ENSEMBLES Two crops: winter wheat and spring

barley

MARS/STAT grid

Thresholds

20 % decrease in yield

10 % decrease in yield

Nitrogen leaching > 25 kg N/ha

Example - preliminary work

Future climate data from perturbed physics experiment (2050-70)

Two locations: Denmark and South Germany

Crop: winter wheat Fertilisation: optimum N rate Soil type: same soil type at both sites

(14 % clay in top soil)

Cumulative probability plot of temperature change and

precipitation change

1 2 3 4 5 6-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Temperature change (oC)

Precip

itation

chan

ge (%

)

South Germany 2050-70

90-100

80-90

70-80

60-70

50-60

40-50

30-40

20-30

10-20

0-101 2 3 4 5 6

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Temperature change (oC)

Precip

itation

chan

ge (%

)

Denmark 2050-70

90-100

80-90

70-80

60-70

50-60

40-50

30-40

20-30

10-20

0-10

Changes in climate

South Germany: Precipitation: -15, -10, -5, 0, +5, +10, +15 % Temperature: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6 oC

Denmark Precipitation: -10, -5, 0, +5, +10, +15, +20,

+25 % Temperature: +1, +2, +3, +4, +5, +6 oC

Changes in climate

Two different situations

Precipitation evenly distributed on all months

Seasonal variation in precipitation included

Seasonal variation in climate(from Ruosteenoja et al., 2003)

Including seasonal variation in precipitation distribution

South Germany

Decrease: Decrease in precipitation during May – Nov.

(larger decrease during Jul. – Aug.) Unchanged precipitation during Dec. – Feb.

Increase Unchanged precipitation during Jun. – Aug. Increase in precipitation during the rest of the

period (larger increase during Dec. – Feb.)

South Germany, 20% yield decrease

0 1 2 3 4 5 6-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Temperature change (oC)

Pre

cip

itatio

n c

ha

ng

e (%

)South Germany

Seasonal precipitation distribution

70-80

60-70

50-60

40-50

30-40

20-30

10-20

0-10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Temperature change (oC)

Pre

cip

itatio

n c

ha

ng

e (%

)

South Germany Uniform precipitation distribution

70-80

60-70

50-60

40-50

30-40

20-30

10-20

0-10

South Germany, 10 % yield decrease

0 1 2 3 4 5 6-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Temperature change (oC)

Precip

itaiton

chan

ge (%

)

South Germany Uniform precipitation distribution

90-100

80-90

70-80

60-70

50-60

40-50

30-40

20-30

10-20

0-10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Temperature change (oC)

Pre

cip

itatio

n c

ha

ng

e (%

)South Germany

Seasonal precipitation distribution

80-90

70-80

60-70

50-60

40-50

30-40

20-30

10-20

0-10

South Germany, Leaching > 25 kg N/ha

0 1 2 3 4 5 6-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Temperature change (oC)

Precip

itation

chan

ge (%

)

South GermanySeasonal precipitation distribution

45-50

40-45

35-40

30-35

25-30

20-25

15-20

10-15

5-10

0-5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Temperature change (oC)

Precip

itation

chan

ge (%

)

South GermanyUniform precipitation distribution

35-40

30-35

25-30

20-25

15-20

10-15

5-10

0-5

Seasonal variation in climate (from Ruosteenoja et al., 2003)

Including seasonal variation in precipitation distribution

Denmark

Increase: Increase in precipitation during Sep. – May Decrease in precipitation during Jun. – Aug.

Decrease: All the decrease in Jun. – Aug. The rest of the months unchanged

Denmark, 20 % yield decrease

0 1 2 3 4 5 6-10-505

10152025

Temperature chagnge (oC)

Precip

itation

ch

ang

e (%)

DenmarkUniform precipitation distribution

90-100

80-90

70-80

60-70

50-60

40-50

30-40

20-30

10-20

0-10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Temperature change (oC)

Precip

itation

ch

ang

e (%)

DenmarkSeasonal precipitation distribution 90-100

80-90

70-80

60-70

50-60

40-50

30-40

20-30

10-20

0-10

Denmark, 10 % yield decrease

0 1 2 3 4 5 6-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Temperature change (oC)

Precip

itation

ch

ang

e (%)

DenmarkUniform precipitation distribution

90-100

80-90

70-80

60-70

50-60

40-50

30-40

20-30

10-20

0-10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Temperature change (oC)

Pre

cip

itatio

n

ch

an

ge

(%)

DenmarkSeasonal precipitation distribution 90-100

80-90

70-80

60-70

50-60

40-50

30-40

20-30

10-20

0-10

Denmark, leaching > 25 kg N/ha

0 1 2 3 4 5 6-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Temperature change (oC)

Precip

itation

chan

ge (%

)

DenmarkUniform precipitation distribution

70-80

60-70

50-60

40-50

30-40

20-30

10-20

0-10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Temperature change (oC)

Precip

itation

chan

ge (%

)

DenmarkSeasonal precipitation distribution

80-90

70-80

60-70

50-60

40-50

30-40

20-30

10-20

0-10

Response surfaces in combination with probabilistic information on

future climate

1 2 3 4 5 6-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Temperature change (oC)

Precip

itation

chan

ge (%

)

Denmark 2050-70

90-100

80-90

70-80

60-70

50-60

40-50

30-40

20-30

10-20

0-10

0 1 2 3 4 5 6-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Temperature change (oC)

Precipitation change (%

)

DenmarkSeasonal precipitation distribution

80-90

70-80

60-70

50-60

40-50

30-40

20-30

10-20

0-10

Remarks

Baseline climate from 1976-2004, should be 1960-90

CO2 concentration not included in simulations

Preliminary conclusion

Calculations of nitrogen leaching is more sensitive to seasonal variation in climate data than the calculations of crop yields.

Future work

Seasonal relationships between meteorological variables in future climate data will be investigated

Include CO2-concentrations, fixed for each time period

Include the seasonal variation in climate in the calculations

Simulations with two crops: winter wheat and spring barley

Simulations for more locations and local soil types