Transcript
© 2016 Ipsos.
1 EU Perils of Perception 2016
Welcome…
Britain and
Brexit
Bobby Duffy,
MD Public Affairs
@bobbyIpsosMORI
2 EU Perils of Perception 2016
Agenda
Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI
Gaby Hinsliff, Columnist, The Guardian
Vicky Pryce, Chief Economic Advisor, CEBR
Tim Montgomerie, Columnist, The Times
Q&A
#IpsosMORILive Wi-fi: RCOG Guest
3 EU Perils of Perception 2016
4 EU Perils of Perception 2016
5 EU Perils of Perception 2016
© 2016 Ipsos.
6 EU Perils of Perception 2016
Tomorrow…
Perils of
Perception
7
• Bombay mix has to be renamed as
Mumbai mix
• Barmaids cannot show too much
cleavage
• Sausages to be renamed as emulsified
high-fat offal tubes
• Water bottles cannot advertise that their
contents prevent dehydration
Are any of these EU
Euro-
Myth
Euro-
Reality?
Regulations/Recommendations
real?
or
8
EURO
REALITY
9
• Bombay mix has to be renamed as Mumbai mix
• Barmaids cannot show too much cleavage
• Sausages to be renamed as emulsified high-fat
offal tube
• Water bottles cannot say their contents prevent
dehydration
One in seven people believe at least one Euro-Myth
10
Bananas that are too
Euro-
Myth
Euro-
Reality?
bendy are banned from or
being imported into
the UK
11
EURO
MYTH
12
EURO
REALITY
13
Based on Commission Regulation 1333/2011 setting out
minimum standards for imported bananas – including that
they should generally be “free from malformation or
abnormal curvature”. But “abnormal curvature” wasn’t
intended to mean bendy or more bendy than average - it’s
aim is to stop importers sending boxes of bananas that are
so malformed fewer fit into a standard size package for
transport
14
Britain pays more into
Euro-
Myth
Euro-
Reality?
the EU budget each year or
than Germany
15
16
17
MEPs are directly elected
Euro-
Myth
Euro-
Reality?
by the citizens in each or
member state
18
EURO
REALITY
19
43% think not
or don’t know
20
21
The facts are often
confusing and contested…
…and facts about the
future don’t exist…
22
Ben Page
Chief Executive
Ipsos MORI
© 2016 Ipsos.
23
Will we
or will we
Stay
Go..?
#ipsosmorilive @benatipsosmori
Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI
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1997
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1999
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2007
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2011
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2012
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2016
Cameron becomes PM
For most of last decade only 5% said EU was top issue What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Treaty of Accession: 10
new EU Member States France and Holland
reject ratification of
EU constitution
Lowest score
recorded
(1%)
UKIP come first
in European
Parliament
elections
Highest score
since
December
1999 (30%) Between 2005 and 2015 on average
5% said EU was important issue
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
25
The polling
averages mostly
point to a
tight race
26
Our long-term trends show opinion is very volatile
26%
60% 63%
52% 49%
53% 51%
41%
61%
51%
65%
29% 27%
36% 35% 32%
39%
49%
27%
36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Feb
-78
Feb
-80
Feb
-82
Feb
-84
Feb
-86
Feb
-88
Feb
-90
Feb
-92
Feb
-94
Feb
-96
Feb
-98
Feb
-00
Feb
-02
Feb
-04
Feb
-06
Feb
-08
Feb
-10
Feb
-12
Feb
-14
Feb
-16
If there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or
get out of the European Union, how would you vote?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Stay in
Get out
27
Is Scotland 2014 a guide or a one-off? Should Scotland be an independent country?
Which way are you most inclined to vote?
Yes, Leave
No, Stay
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Nine months before Last month Last days
Base: All registered and certain to vote including leaners (excluding don’t know and refused) (886). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014
28
Turnout becomes crucial as more people definitely decide
Have you definitely decided to vote…or is there a chance you may change your mind?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
57% 58% 63% 64%
69% 73%
40% 39% 35% 33%
28% 25%
3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016
Definitely decided
May change mind
Don’t know
Base: All expressing an opinion on how they will vote 926 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016
29
Turnout closely related to age (favours Brexit) and
Base: c3,000 adults 18+ March- May 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
‘Remain’ lead 18-34 35-54 55+ Total
ABC1 +55 +30 +2 +28
C2DE +21 -7 -24 -6
Total +40 +13 -11
Certain to vote? 18-34 35-54 55+ Total
ABC1 59 76 80 72
C2DE 44 68 76 64
Total 52 72 78
Most likely Least likely
Positive Negative class (favours Remain)
30 © Ipsos Public Affairs
There are 3.4m more under 35s than over 65s…
BUT young people will cast fewer votes…
Aged 18-34 Aged 65+
22%
29% 22%
14.2m 11.1m
29%
In UK population
% they make up of 18+
population
% of total voting population
in GE2015*
If replicated in EU Referendum** 6.7m 8.6m
*According to BES validation against electoral registers for GE2015 **Based on share of c30m actual votes, if turnout similar to General Election 2015
31
Among leave voters
81% who said they
would vote to leave in
would still vote
leave in April
October said they
Remain supporters have been more flaky…..
Note: In April we added a preamble to the question indicating the date of the referendum
Source: Ipsos MORI/Unbound Philanthropy, Base:1,593,
aged 18+, surveyed online between 14-25 April 2016
October
2015
Remain
45%
April
2016
Leave
38%
Undecided
17%
Remain
39%
Leave
38%
Undecided
23%
Among remain voters, 74% who said they would vote remain in October said they
would still vote remain in April
© 2016 Ipsos.
32
The
Issues
33
Remain and leave voters motivated by very different issues
Looking ahead to the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union
on June 23rd, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in
helping you decide which way to vote?
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14-16 May 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
25%
49%
30%
16%
40%
15%
6%
5%
Impact on Britain’s economy
Number of immigrants coming
into Britain
Britain’s ability to make its own
laws
Cost of EU immigration on GB's
welfare system
Leave supporters
Remain supporters
34
Many expect problems for economy in short term (but not own!)
If Britain votes to leave the European Union, to what extent do you think it would
be better or worse for each of the following, or would it make no difference?
Base: 1,002 British adults, aged 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
18
39
26
46
11
15
29
35
49
7
16
9
Your own standard of living
Britain's economy over the
next ten to twenty years
Britain's economy over the
next five years
Better
Makes no difference
Worse
Don’t know
Implicit Reaction Time
(IRT) allows us to
compare people’s stated
opinions with the
strength of their
unconscious associations
36
Agree EXPLICIT
EM
PH
AT
IC A
gre
e %
Remain voters:
agree staying
would be better
for British
economy (79% vs 44%)
Leave voters:
agree leaving
would be better
for British
economy (78% vs 45%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Doubt /
Lip service
Not on the
radar
Confidence /
Owned Niche
Appeal
Both remain and leave voters are certain their option
would be best for the economy 1
Base: All intending to vote remain (310); All intending to vote leave (286)
37
Agree EXPLICIT
EM
PH
AT
IC A
gre
e %
Doubt /
Lip service
Not on the
radar
Confidence /
Owned Niche
Appeal
Base: All intending to vote remain (310); All intending to vote leave (286)
Remain voters:
agree staying
would be better
for trade with
other countries (85% vs 59%)
Leave voters:
agree leaving
would be better
for trade with
other countries (59% vs 20%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Remain camp owns arguments on trade – leave voters say they
think Brexit would be better for trade, but unconvincingly 2
38
Agree EXPLICIT
EM
PH
AT
IC A
gre
e %
Doubt /
Lip service
Not on the
radar
Confidence /
Owned Niche
Appeal
Base: All intending to vote remain (310); All intending to vote leave (286)
Voters on both sides unconvinced about impact on own
standard of living 3
Remain voters:
agree staying
would be better
for own standard
of living (63% vs 33%)
Leave voters:
agree leaving
would be better
for own standard
of living (58% vs 28%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
39
Agree EXPLICIT
EM
PH
AT
IC A
gre
e %
Doubt /
Lip service
Not on the
radar
Confidence /
Owned Niche
Appeal
Base: All intending to vote remain (310); All intending to vote leave (286)
Although both think their vote best for long-term, less sure about
short-term – remain voters especially have a gap between explicit 4
Remain voters:
agree staying
would be better in
the long-term (81% vs 50%)
Leave voters:
agree leaving
would be better in
the long-term (92% vs 53%)
Remain voters:
agree staying
would be better in
the short-term (67% vs 27%)
Leave voters:
agree leaving
would be better in
the short-term (53% vs 22%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
response and IRT score
40
And of course it isn’t easy for us pollsters either…
Social and political change
Sampling Turnout
Makes predicting turnout
more important Adds to challenges in
getting a representative
sample
Does the sample contain the right mix of
voters and non-voters?
Can we identify voters and non-
voters correctly?
41
Turnout is key
…and apply a turnout filter (eg the one that
Adds 3 to Leave
Registration nearly closed!
Our final war-footing model…
So will look at registered voters only…
Takes 3 from Remain
gets us closest on GE2015):
42
So why don’t
we ask
someone else …?
43
Captains of Industry?
As you may know, the government has pledged to hold a referendum on the
United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union by 2017
Which outcome of the
referendum do you think would
be best for your business?
87%
7% 4% 2%
And which outcome would
you personally prefer?
87%
7% 3% 3%
And if there were a referendum
now on whether Britain should
stay in or leave the European
Union, how would you vote?
83%
12% 2% 3%
UK staying in/Stay in UK leaving/Get out Don’t know Refused
44
Economists?
If the United Kingdom votes
in the next 5 years
Reduces the risk Makes no difference
Increases the risk Don’t know
UK economy experiencing
to leave the European Union,
what impact, if any,
do you think it would
have on the risk of the
a serious negative shock
8%
22%
68%
3%
Base: 639 economists, 19th – 27th May 2016
Source: Ipsos MORI
45
Betting markets
are STILL 73%
for in
46
Pollsters,
political scientists
and journalists
think Remain
will win (55%-45%)
But they also
give Brexit
a 38% chance
Survey of 496 academics, 13 pollsters, 33 journalists and 54 other experts
24 May-6 June 2016 by the Political Studies Association
47
Public still expect Remain to win…
Which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely to happen at
the referendum in June?
74%
8%
18%
32%
46%
22%
Remain voters Leave voters Britain will vote to remain a member of the European Union
Britain will vote to leave the European Union
Don’t know
Base: 1,000 online adults aged 18-75, 29 April – 5 May 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
48
Our next poll
15 June….
Watch this space!
49
Gaby Hinsliff
Columnist
The Guardian
50
Vicky Pryce
Chief Economic Advisor
CEBR
51
Tim Montgomerie
Columnist
The Times
52
Q&A
Ipsos MORI Thinks Some of the projects underway/done…. • EU Perils of Perception – UK in a Changing Europe
• Shifting service expectations – Deloitte
• Responsible tax behaviour – CBI
Up and coming… • Millennial Myths (and Realities)
• Corporate Responsibility: impact on the bottom line
• Sugar: norms, behaviour and what’s next
• Open Banking: Utility & Security
54
Thank you – now drinks!
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