The State of Britain and Brexit

© 2016 Ipsos.

1 EU Perils of Perception 2016

Welcome…

Britain and

Brexit

Bobby Duffy,

MD Public Affairs

@bobbyIpsosMORI


Agenda

Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

Gaby Hinsliff, Columnist, The Guardian

Vicky Pryce, Chief Economic Advisor, CEBR

Tim Montgomerie, Columnist, The Times

Q&A

#IpsosMORILive Wi-fi: RCOG Guest




© 2016 Ipsos.


Tomorrow…

Perils of

Perception

7

• Bombay mix has to be renamed as

Mumbai mix

• Barmaids cannot show too much

cleavage

• Sausages to be renamed as emulsified

high-fat offal tubes

• Water bottles cannot advertise that their

contents prevent dehydration

Are any of these EU

Euro-

Myth

Euro-

Reality?

Regulations/Recommendations

real?

or

8

EURO

REALITY

9

• Bombay mix has to be renamed as Mumbai mix

• Barmaids cannot show too much cleavage

• Sausages to be renamed as emulsified high-fat

offal tube

• Water bottles cannot say their contents prevent

dehydration

One in seven people believe at least one Euro-Myth

10

Bananas that are too

Euro-

Myth

Euro-

Reality?

bendy are banned from or

being imported into

the UK

11

EURO

MYTH

12

EURO

REALITY

13

Based on Commission Regulation 1333/2011 setting out

minimum standards for imported bananas – including that

they should generally be “free from malformation or

abnormal curvature”. But “abnormal curvature” wasn’t

intended to mean bendy or more bendy than average - it’s

aim is to stop importers sending boxes of bananas that are

so malformed fewer fit into a standard size package for

transport

14

Britain pays more into

Euro-

Myth

Euro-

Reality?

the EU budget each year or

than Germany

15

16

17

MEPs are directly elected

Euro-

Myth

Euro-

Reality?

by the citizens in each or

member state

18

EURO

REALITY

19

43% think not

or don’t know

20

21

The facts are often

confusing and contested…

…and facts about the

future don’t exist…

22

Ben Page

Chief Executive

Ipsos MORI

© 2016 Ipsos.

23

Will we

or will we

Stay

Go..?

#ipsosmorilive @benatipsosmori

Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

24

0

10

20

30

40

May

1997

May

1998

May

1999

May

2000

May

2001

May

2002

May

2003

May

2004

May

2005

May

2006

May

2007

May

2008

May

2009

May

2010

May

2011

May

2012

May

2013

May

2014

May

2015

May

2016

Cameron becomes PM

For most of last decade only 5% said EU was top issue What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

Treaty of Accession: 10

new EU Member States France and Holland

reject ratification of

EU constitution

Lowest score

recorded

(1%)

UKIP come first

in European

Parliament

elections

Highest score

since

December

1999 (30%) Between 2005 and 2015 on average

5% said EU was important issue

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

25

The polling

averages mostly

point to a

tight race

26

Our long-term trends show opinion is very volatile

26%

60% 63%

52% 49%

53% 51%

41%

61%

51%

65%

29% 27%

36% 35% 32%

39%

49%

27%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Feb

-78

Feb

-80

Feb

-82

Feb

-84

Feb

-86

Feb

-88

Feb

-90

Feb

-92

Feb

-94

Feb

-96

Feb

-98

Feb

-00

Feb

-02

Feb

-04

Feb

-06

Feb

-08

Feb

-10

Feb

-12

Feb

-14

Feb

-16

If there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or

get out of the European Union, how would you vote?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Stay in

Get out

27

Is Scotland 2014 a guide or a one-off? Should Scotland be an independent country?

Which way are you most inclined to vote?

Yes, Leave

No, Stay

Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14

Nine months before Last month Last days

Base: All registered and certain to vote including leaners (excluding don’t know and refused) (886). Data collected among 991 Scottish adults 16+, September 16th – 17th 2014

28

Turnout becomes crucial as more people definitely decide

Have you definitely decided to vote…or is there a chance you may change your mind?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

57% 58% 63% 64%

69% 73%

40% 39% 35% 33%

28% 25%

3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Oct 2015 Nov 2015 Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016

Definitely decided

May change mind

Don’t know

Base: All expressing an opinion on how they will vote 926 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016

29

Turnout closely related to age (favours Brexit) and

Base: c3,000 adults 18+ March- May 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

‘Remain’ lead 18-34 35-54 55+ Total

ABC1 +55 +30 +2 +28

C2DE +21 -7 -24 -6

Total +40 +13 -11

Certain to vote? 18-34 35-54 55+ Total

ABC1 59 76 80 72

C2DE 44 68 76 64

Total 52 72 78

Most likely Least likely

Positive Negative class (favours Remain)

30 © Ipsos Public Affairs

There are 3.4m more under 35s than over 65s…

BUT young people will cast fewer votes…

Aged 18-34 Aged 65+

22%

29% 22%

14.2m 11.1m

29%

In UK population

% they make up of 18+

population

% of total voting population

in GE2015*

If replicated in EU Referendum** 6.7m 8.6m

*According to BES validation against electoral registers for GE2015 **Based on share of c30m actual votes, if turnout similar to General Election 2015

31

Among leave voters

81% who said they

would vote to leave in

would still vote

leave in April

October said they

Remain supporters have been more flaky…..

Note: In April we added a preamble to the question indicating the date of the referendum

Source: Ipsos MORI/Unbound Philanthropy, Base:1,593,

aged 18+, surveyed online between 14-25 April 2016

October

2015

Remain

45%

April

2016

Leave

38%

Undecided

17%

Remain

39%

Leave

38%

Undecided

23%

Among remain voters, 74% who said they would vote remain in October said they

would still vote remain in April

© 2016 Ipsos.

32

The

Issues

33

Remain and leave voters motivated by very different issues

Looking ahead to the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union

on June 23rd, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in

helping you decide which way to vote?

Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14-16 May 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

25%

49%

30%

16%

40%

15%

6%

5%

Impact on Britain’s economy

Number of immigrants coming

into Britain

Britain’s ability to make its own

laws

Cost of EU immigration on GB's

welfare system

Leave supporters

Remain supporters

34

Many expect problems for economy in short term (but not own!)

If Britain votes to leave the European Union, to what extent do you think it would

be better or worse for each of the following, or would it make no difference?

Base: 1,002 British adults, aged 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

18

39

26

46

11

15

29

35

49

7

16

9

Your own standard of living

Britain's economy over the

next ten to twenty years

Britain's economy over the

next five years

Better

Makes no difference

Worse

Don’t know

Implicit Reaction Time

(IRT) allows us to

compare people’s stated

opinions with the

strength of their

unconscious associations

36

Agree EXPLICIT

EM

PH

AT

IC A

gre

e %

Remain voters:

agree staying

would be better

for British

economy (79% vs 44%)

Leave voters:

agree leaving

would be better

for British

economy (78% vs 45%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Doubt /

Lip service

Not on the

radar

Confidence /

Owned Niche

Appeal

Both remain and leave voters are certain their option

would be best for the economy 1

Base: All intending to vote remain (310); All intending to vote leave (286)

37

Agree EXPLICIT

EM

PH

AT

IC A

gre

e %

Doubt /

Lip service

Not on the

radar

Confidence /

Owned Niche

Appeal


Remain voters:

agree staying

would be better

for trade with

other countries (85% vs 59%)

Leave voters:

agree leaving

would be better

for trade with

other countries (59% vs 20%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Remain camp owns arguments on trade – leave voters say they

think Brexit would be better for trade, but unconvincingly 2

38

Agree EXPLICIT

EM

PH

AT

IC A

gre

e %

Doubt /

Lip service

Not on the

radar

Confidence /

Owned Niche

Appeal


Voters on both sides unconvinced about impact on own

standard of living 3

Remain voters:

agree staying

would be better

for own standard

of living (63% vs 33%)

Leave voters:

agree leaving

would be better

for own standard

of living (58% vs 28%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

39

Agree EXPLICIT

EM

PH

AT

IC A

gre

e %

Doubt /

Lip service

Not on the

radar

Confidence /

Owned Niche

Appeal


Although both think their vote best for long-term, less sure about

short-term – remain voters especially have a gap between explicit 4

Remain voters:

agree staying

would be better in

the long-term (81% vs 50%)

Leave voters:

agree leaving

would be better in

the long-term (92% vs 53%)

Remain voters:

agree staying

would be better in

the short-term (67% vs 27%)

Leave voters:

agree leaving

would be better in

the short-term (53% vs 22%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

response and IRT score

40

And of course it isn’t easy for us pollsters either…

Social and political change

Sampling Turnout

Makes predicting turnout

more important Adds to challenges in

getting a representative

sample

Does the sample contain the right mix of

voters and non-voters?

Can we identify voters and non-

voters correctly?

41

Turnout is key

…and apply a turnout filter (eg the one that

Adds 3 to Leave

Registration nearly closed!

Our final war-footing model…

So will look at registered voters only…

Takes 3 from Remain

gets us closest on GE2015):

42

So why don’t

we ask

someone else …?

43

Captains of Industry?

As you may know, the government has pledged to hold a referendum on the

United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union by 2017

Which outcome of the

referendum do you think would

be best for your business?

87%

7% 4% 2%

And which outcome would

you personally prefer?

87%

7% 3% 3%

And if there were a referendum

now on whether Britain should

stay in or leave the European

Union, how would you vote?

83%

12% 2% 3%

UK staying in/Stay in UK leaving/Get out Don’t know Refused

44

Economists?

If the United Kingdom votes

in the next 5 years

Reduces the risk Makes no difference

Increases the risk Don’t know

UK economy experiencing

to leave the European Union,

what impact, if any,

do you think it would

have on the risk of the

a serious negative shock

8%

22%

68%

3%

Base: 639 economists, 19th – 27th May 2016

Source: Ipsos MORI

45

Betting markets

are STILL 73%

for in

46

Pollsters,

political scientists

and journalists

think Remain

will win (55%-45%)

But they also

give Brexit

a 38% chance

Survey of 496 academics, 13 pollsters, 33 journalists and 54 other experts

24 May-6 June 2016 by the Political Studies Association

47

Public still expect Remain to win…

Which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely to happen at

the referendum in June?

74%

8%

18%

32%

46%

22%

Remain voters Leave voters Britain will vote to remain a member of the European Union

Britain will vote to leave the European Union

Don’t know

Base: 1,000 online adults aged 18-75, 29 April – 5 May 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

48

Our next poll

15 June….

Watch this space!

49

Gaby Hinsliff

Columnist

The Guardian

50

Vicky Pryce

Chief Economic Advisor

CEBR

51

Tim Montgomerie

Columnist

The Times

52

Q&A

Ipsos MORI Thinks Some of the projects underway/done…. • EU Perils of Perception – UK in a Changing Europe

• Shifting service expectations – Deloitte

• Responsible tax behaviour – CBI

Up and coming… • Millennial Myths (and Realities)

• Corporate Responsibility: impact on the bottom line

• Sugar: norms, behaviour and what’s next

• Open Banking: Utility & Security

54

Thank you – now drinks!

The State of Britain and Brexit

News & Politics