THE KYOTO PROTOCOL AND RUSSIA: WHAT IS TO BE DONE? A. Illarionov Adviser to the President of Russia National Press Club, Washington, DC January 30, 2004.
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THE KYOTO PROTOCOL AND RUSSIA:WHAT IS TO BE DONE?
A.A. IllarionovIllarionov
Adviser to the President of RussiaAdviser to the President of Russia
National Press Club, Washington, DCNational Press Club, Washington, DC
January 30,January 30, 200 20044
© © InstituteInstitute of Economic Analysisof Economic Analysis
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaThe Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaRussia’s total CORussia’s total CO22 emissions are lower than emissions are lower than
those of other countries not adopting emission limitsthose of other countries not adopting emission limits
Total CO2 emissions in 2000
1,4
5,5
2,7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Russia USA China
Bn
t
With limited
emissions
With unlimited emissions
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaThe Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaRussia’s CORussia’s CO22 emissions per capita are lower than emissions per capita are lower than
those of other countries not adopting emission limitsthose of other countries not adopting emission limits
CO2 emissions per capita in 2000
9,8
71,4
37,530,2
24,1 22,1 20,1 18,2 15,4
109,6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120R
ussi
a
Virg
inIs
land
s(U
.S.)
Qat
ar
Uni
ted
Ara
bE
mira
tes
Bah
rain
Kuw
ait
Trin
idad
and
Toba
go
US
A
Aus
tralia
Sin
gapo
re
tons
With limited
emissions
With unlimited emissions
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaThe Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaRussia’s CORussia’s CO22 emissions per unit of GDP are lower than emissions per unit of GDP are lower than
those of other countries not adopting emission limitsthose of other countries not adopting emission limits
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in 2000
1,6
8,0
5,3
2,3 2,2 2,2 2,0 1,9 1,9 1,9
14,4
02468
1012141618
Rus
sia
Virg
inIs
land
s(U
.S.)
Qat
ar
Bahr
ain Iraq
UAE
Ukr
aine
Azer
baija
n
Brun
ei
Uzb
ekis
tan
Kuw
ait
kg p
er P
PP $
of G
DP
With limited
emissions
With unlimited emissions
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaThe Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaRussia’s GDP per capita is lower thanRussia’s GDP per capita is lower than
those of other countries not adopting emission limitsthose of other countries not adopting emission limits
GDP per capita in 2003
7,9
35,731,1
26,721,9 19,7
16,8 14,7 13,2 12,2 11,1 11,0 10,3
05
1015202530354045
Rus
sia
US
A
Sin
gapo
re
Aus
tral
ia
Cyp
rus
Isra
el
Kor
ea
UA
E
Chi
le
Kuw
ait
Om
an
S.A
rabi
a
Qat
ar
thou
s. P
PP
199
9 U
S$
With
lim
ited
e
mis
sion
s With unlimited emissions
©ИЭА
Kyoto 2012 limit
Kyoto 2050 limitActual
Conservative forecast
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
20
32
20
34
20
36
20
38
20
40
20
42
20
44
20
46
20
48
20
50
Mln
t
Seller Buyer
The Russia's Kyoto Cross.The Russia's Kyoto Cross.Under the Kyoto Protocol Russia will be a buyer, not a seller of COUnder the Kyoto Protocol Russia will be a buyer, not a seller of CO22 quotas. quotas.
(Actual Russia’s CO(Actual Russia’s CO22 emissions, conservative forecast emissions, conservative forecast
and its Kyoto Protocol limits) and its Kyoto Protocol limits)
?
©ИЭА
The Russia’s Kyoto Trap.The Russia’s Kyoto Trap.Under the Kyoto Protocol Russia won’t be able to sell its COUnder the Kyoto Protocol Russia won’t be able to sell its CO22 quotas. quotas.
(Forecast of CO(Forecast of CO22 quotas market in the EU in 2008-2012) quotas market in the EU in 2008-2012)
1954 491 1617 1 813 3921 5180
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
EU EU Central andEasternEurope
Ukraine Total Russia
mln
t
+ =+
Potential Demand
P o t e n t I a l S u p p l y
(Превышение фактической
эмиссии CO2 над обязательствами
в 1-й фазе КП)
1 2 3
Sequence of purchases according to the EU Directive adopted by the
EU Parliament 02.07.03 and accepted by the EU Council 22.07.03
4
©ИЭА
With Russia
47,2
30,4
24,2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
pe
r c
en
t
Without Russia
The Kyoto protocol’s inefficiency.The Kyoto protocol’s inefficiency.The Kyoto Protocol is unable to achieve its proclaimed goals.The Kyoto Protocol is unable to achieve its proclaimed goals.
((The share of the KP Annex B countries in the World’s COThe share of the KP Annex B countries in the World’s CO22 emissions) emissions)
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is not universal.The Kyoto Protocol is not universal.It is backed by the World minority.It is backed by the World minority.
The World majority did not adopt the Kyoto Protocol limits.The World majority did not adopt the Kyoto Protocol limits.((The share of the KP Annex B countries in the World aggregates)The share of the KP Annex B countries in the World aggregates)
27,2
36,4
12,3
24,2
32,4
10,1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
in CO2 Emission in GDP in Population
per
cen
t
1990 2000
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol puts brakes on economic growthThe Kyoto Protocol puts brakes on economic growth
GDP growth in 1997-2003
2,0
3,1
0,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,5
17 Pro-Kyoto Developed Economies(EU15, Canada, Japan)
11 Non-Kyoto Developed Economies(USA, Australia, Taiwan, Korea,Hong Kong, Singapore, Israel,
Mexico, Cyprus, Malta)
per
cen
t
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol incompatible with economic growth.The Kyoto Protocol incompatible with economic growth.COCO2 2 emissions are associated with economic growthemissions are associated with economic growth
in the mid-income countries (47 countries),1960-2000in the mid-income countries (47 countries),1960-2000
y = 0,44x + 1,17
R 2 = 0,71
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
CO2 emissions annual growth rates, %
GD
P a
nn
ual
gro
wth
rat
es, %
Doubling GDP
Kyoto 2012
Kyoto 2050
-3.5
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is incompatible with poverty reduction.The Kyoto Protocol is incompatible with poverty reduction.COCO2 2 emissions are associated with economic growthemissions are associated with economic growth
in the low-income countries (52 countries),1960-2000in the low-income countries (52 countries),1960-2000
y = 0,48x + 1,22
R 2 = 0,66
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15СО2 emissions annual growth rates, %
GD
P a
nn
ua
l g
row
th r
ate
s,
%
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is incompatible with wealth accumulation.The Kyoto Protocol is incompatible with wealth accumulation. СОСО22 emission are associated with economic growthemission are associated with economic growth
in developed economies, too (3in developed economies, too (38 8 countries), 19countries), 1991-200091-2000
y = 0,53x + 2,05
R 2 = 0,71
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
CO2 emissions annual growth rate, %
GD
P a
nn
ua
l g
row
th r
ate
, %
©ИЭАSource: Climate Change 2001 Synthesis Report, IPCC, p.119.
The Kyoto Protocol is unbearably expensive.The Kyoto Protocol is unbearably expensive.The cost of compliance can be as high as 1750 US$ tlnThe cost of compliance can be as high as 1750 US$ tln
between 1990 and 2100, or 15% of their annual GDP in affected countriesbetween 1990 and 2100, or 15% of their annual GDP in affected countries
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is oriented on technological illusions.The Kyoto Protocol is oriented on technological illusions.It’s impossible to switch away from hydrocarbonsIt’s impossible to switch away from hydrocarbonsto another energy base in a short period of timeto another energy base in a short period of time
World energy consumption by source of originWorld energy consumption by source of origin
81,0%
6,8%2,3%
9,9%
Hydrocarbons
Nuclear
Hydro
Other
©ИЭА
The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science.The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science.The variation of COThe variation of CO22 concentration can not be explained concentration can not be explained
by variation in COby variation in CO22 emissions of anthropogenic character emissions of anthropogenic character
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1750
1767
1784
1801
1818
1835
1852
1869
1886
1903
1920
1937
1954
1971
1988
Ln
(CO
2 em
issi
on
, t
)
5,455,505,555,605,655,705,755,805,855,905,956,00
Ln
(CO
2 co
nce
ntr
atio
n,
pp
m)
CO2 emission of athropogenic character, t CO2 concentration, ppm
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2003.
©ИЭА
The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science. The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science. The variation in temperature can not be explainedThe variation in temperature can not be explained
by the variation in COby the variation in CO22 concentration concentration
13,6
13,7
13,8
13,9
14,0
14,1
14,2
18
60
18
70
18
80
18
90
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
Glo
ba
l ab
so
lute
te
mp
era
ture
, oC
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
CO
2 c
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
, pp
m
Global absolute temperature, oC CO2 concentration, ppm
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2003.
©ИЭА
The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science. The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science. The variation in temperature can not be explainedThe variation in temperature can not be explained
by variation in COby variation in CO22 emissions of anthropogenic character emissions of anthropogenic character
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2003.
13,6
13,7
13,8
13,9
14,0
14,1
14,2
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Glo
bal
ab
solu
te t
emp
erat
ure
, o
C
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
CO
2 em
issi
on
, m
ln t
Global absolute temperature, oCCO2 emission of anthropogenic character, mln t
©ИЭА
The Kyoto Protocol is based on flawed science. The Kyoto Protocol is based on flawed science. The variation in temperature is positively correlated with variation in COThe variation in temperature is positively correlated with variation in CO22
concentration only from 1976-2003. This is the ONLY such sub-periodconcentration only from 1976-2003. This is the ONLY such sub-periodout of 6 sub-periods between 1860 and 2003out of 6 sub-periods between 1860 and 2003
Variation in CO2 concentration and variation in temperature
0,26 0,250,49
1,01
1,57
0,32
0,0008
0,0088
-0,0030
0,0058
0,0105
-0,0012
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
1860-1901 1901-1930 1930-1944 1944-1963 1963-1976 1976-2003
pp
m\y
ear
-0,004
-0,002
0,000
0,002
0,004
0,006
0,008
0,010
0,012
de
gre
es
C\y
ea
r
Change in CO2 concentration Change in global temperature
©ИЭА
The very concept of “Global Warming”The very concept of “Global Warming”critically depends on the time horizon chosen.critically depends on the time horizon chosen.It appears reasonable for short-term periods.It appears reasonable for short-term periods.AbsoluteAbsolute temperature (temperature (3030 YMA) YMA),, England, 1659-2002 England, 1659-2002
y = 0,002x + 8,8467
R2 = 0,5265
8,0
8,2
8,4
8,6
8,8
9,0
9,2
9,4
9,6
9,8
10,0
1688
1704
1720
1736
1752
1768
1784
1800
1816
1832
1848
1864
1880
1896
1912
1928
1944
1960
1976
1992
degr
ees
Source: www.met-office.gov.uk.
©ИЭА
The very concept of “Global Warming”The very concept of “Global Warming”critically depends on the time horizon chosen.critically depends on the time horizon chosen.It appears unproven for longer-term periods.It appears unproven for longer-term periods.
AbsoluteAbsolute temperature (temperature (3030 YMA) YMA),, NE Canada (Baffin Island), 752-1992 NE Canada (Baffin Island), 752-1992
y = -0,0002x + 3,048
R2 = 0,0495
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
781
840
899
958
1017
1076
1135
1194
1253
1312
1371
1430
1489
1548
1607
1666
1725
1784
1843
1902
1961
degre
es
Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.
©ИЭА
The very concept of “Global Warming”The very concept of “Global Warming”critically depends on the time horizon chosen.critically depends on the time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for longer-term periods. It appears unproven for longer-term periods.
Absolute temperatureAbsolute temperature ((3030 YMA) YMA),, Tasmania,1571 BC - 1991 AD Tasmania,1571 BC - 1991 AD
y = -2E-05x + 15,019
R2 = 0,0057
14,0
14,2
14,4
14,6
14,8
15,0
15,2
15,4
15,6
15,8
-1571
-1396
-1221
-1046
-871
-696
-521
-346
-171 4
179
354
529
704
879
1054
1229
1404
1579
1754
1929
degre
es
Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.
©ИЭАSource: Grootes, P.M., Stuiver, M., White, J.W.C., Johnsen, S.J., Jouzel J., Comparison of oxygen isotope records from the GISP and GRIP Greenland ice cores. Nature 366, 1993, pp.552-554.
The very concept of “Global Warming” critically depends on the The very concept of “Global Warming” critically depends on the time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for longer-term periods.time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for longer-term periods.
The current “Global Warming” is not unique and is not strongest The current “Global Warming” is not unique and is not strongest in the history of civilization.in the history of civilization.
Variation in temperature in the last 5000 yearsVariation in temperature in the last 5000 years
Distribution of Oxygen δ18О in the upper part of the kern from drill GISР2 (last 5000 years)
©ИЭА
Source: J.R. Petit et al. (19 authors). Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. -Nature, 399 (1999), 429-436.
The very concept of “Global Warming” critically depends on the The very concept of “Global Warming” critically depends on the time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for long-term periods. time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for long-term periods.
The current “Global Warming” is not unique and is not strongest The current “Global Warming” is not unique and is not strongest in the history of Earth. in the history of Earth.
The long-term (M.Milankovitch) climatic cycles for the last 420 000 years.The long-term (M.Milankovitch) climatic cycles for the last 420 000 years.
о
Te
mp
era
ture
ano
mal
ies
(Со)
©ИЭА
The asserted increase in the frequencyThe asserted increase in the frequencyof extraordinary climatic events appears unproven.of extraordinary climatic events appears unproven.
Variance in temperature (Variance in temperature (3030 YMA) YMA),, England, 1659-2002 England, 1659-2002
y = -0,0006x + 0,4267
R2 = 0,2589
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
1688
1703
1718
1733
1748
1763
1778
1793
1808
1823
1838
1853
1868
1883
1898
1913
1928
1943
1958
1973
1988
Source: www.met-office.gov.uk.
©ИЭА
The asserted increase in the frequency The asserted increase in the frequency of extraordinary climatic events appears unproven.of extraordinary climatic events appears unproven.
Variance in temperatureVariance in temperature (30 YMA)(30 YMA),, NE Canada (Baffin Island), 752-1992 NE Canada (Baffin Island), 752-1992
y = -8E-05x + 0,7695
R2 = 0,0074
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
781
837
893
949
1005
1061
1117
1173
1229
1285
1341
1397
1453
1509
1565
1621
1677
1733
1789
1845
1901
1957
Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.
©ИЭА
The asserted increase in the frequencyThe asserted increase in the frequencyof extraordinary climatic events appears unproven. of extraordinary climatic events appears unproven.
Variance in temperature (Variance in temperature (3030 YMA) YMA),, Tasmania, 1751 BC – 1991 AD Tasmania, 1751 BC – 1991 AD
y = -1E-05x + 0,2099
R2 = 0,0222
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
-157
1
-140
7
-124
3
-107
9
-915
-751
-587
-423
-259 -95 69 233
397
561
725
889
1053
1217
1381
1545
1709
1873
Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.
©ИЭА
Asserted increase in the speed Asserted increase in the speed of the current temperature change appears unproven. of the current temperature change appears unproven.
It is not unique and is not strongest in the last 1000 years.It is not unique and is not strongest in the last 1000 years.Change in the global temperature over 30 preceding yearsChange in the global temperature over 30 preceding years
©ИЭА
Asserted increase in the speed Asserted increase in the speed of the current temperature change appears unproven.of the current temperature change appears unproven.
It is not unique and is not strongest in the last 4000 years. It is not unique and is not strongest in the last 4000 years. Change in temperature over Change in temperature over 3030 preceding years preceding years,, Tasmania, 1751BC–1991AD Tasmania, 1751BC–1991AD
y = 1E-07x + 0,0014
R2 = 1E-07
-1,0
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
-154
1
-136
9
-119
7
-102
5
-853
-681
-509
-337
-165 7
179
351
523
695
867
1039
1211
1383
1555
1727
1899
degr
ees
Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.
©ИЭА
y = -0,0001x + 13,825
R2 = 0,1334
13,2
13,3
13,4
13,5
13,6
13,7
13,8
13,9
14,0
14,1
14,2
1029
1077
1125
1173
1221
1269
1317
1365
1413
1461
1509
1557
1605
1653
1701
1749
1797
1845
1893
1941
1989
degre
es
Mother Nature’s Weapon of Mass Destruction is actuallyMother Nature’s Weapon of Mass Destruction is actuallyGlobal Cooling, not Global Warming. Global Cooling, not Global Warming.
In the history of civilization climatic optimums are more associated with In the history of civilization climatic optimums are more associated with prosperity and progress, ice ages – with hardships and catastrophes.prosperity and progress, ice ages – with hardships and catastrophes.
Global absolute temperatureGlobal absolute temperature ((3030 YMA) YMA),, 1000-2003 1000-2003
Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.
Little Ice Age
Little Climatic Optimum
New Climatic Optimum
©ИЭАSource: Grootes, P.M., Stuiver, M., White, J.W.C., Johnsen, S.J., Jouzel J., Comparison of oxygen isotope records from the GISP and GRIP Greenland ice cores. Nature 366, 1993, pp.552-554.
Mother Nature’s Weapon of Mass Destruction is actuallyMother Nature’s Weapon of Mass Destruction is actually Global Cooling, not Global Warming. Global Cooling, not Global Warming.
In the history of humanity climatic optimums are more associated with In the history of humanity climatic optimums are more associated with prosperity and progress, ice ages – with hardships and catastrophes.prosperity and progress, ice ages – with hardships and catastrophes.
VVariation in temperature in the last 5000 yearsariation in temperature in the last 5000 years
Distribution of Oxygen δ18О in the upper part of the kern from drill GISР2 (last 5000 years)
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