APOCALYPSE NOW!!! GLOBAL WARMING IS COMING !!! IS IT COMING ? IS IT WARMING ? IS IT GLOBAL ? IS IT NOW ? IS IT APOCALYPSE ? A. Illarionov Adviser to the.
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APOCALYPSEAPOCALYPSE NOWNOW!!!!!!
GLOBAL WARMINGGLOBAL WARMING IS COMINGIS COMING !!! !!! IS IT COMINGIS IT COMING ? ?
IS IT WARMINGIS IT WARMING ? ?
IS IT GLOBALIS IT GLOBAL ? ?
IS IT NOWIS IT NOW ? ?
IS IT APOCALYPSEIS IT APOCALYPSE ? ?
A.A. IllarionovIllarionov
Adviser to the President of RussiaAdviser to the President of RussiaFebruary 14,February 14, 2005 2005
Apocalypse now:Apocalypse now:how mankind is sleepwalking to the end of the Earthhow mankind is sleepwalking to the end of the Earth
«Floods, storms and droughts. Melting Arctic ice, shrinking glaciers, «Floods, storms and droughts. Melting Arctic ice, shrinking glaciers, oceans turning to acid. The world's top scientists warned last week oceans turning to acid. The world's top scientists warned last week that dangerous climate change is taking place today, not the day after that dangerous climate change is taking place today, not the day after tomorrow.tomorrow. … … Future historians, looking back from a much hotter and less hospitable Future historians, looking back from a much hotter and less hospitable world, are likely to pay special attention to the first few weeks of 2005. world, are likely to pay special attention to the first few weeks of 2005. As they puzzle over how a whole generation could have sleepwalked As they puzzle over how a whole generation could have sleepwalked into disaster - destroying the climate that has allowed human into disaster - destroying the climate that has allowed human civilisation to flourish over the past 11,000 years - they may well civilisation to flourish over the past 11,000 years - they may well identify the past weeks as the time when the last alarms sounded». identify the past weeks as the time when the last alarms sounded».
IndependentIndependent, , UK newspaperUK newspaper06 February 200506 February 2005
Meinshausen
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
EU target request for temperatureEU target request for temperature
Criterion for the temperature increase is nonsense –for thousands of years temperature was more than 2oC higher than
in pre-industrial period WITHOUT anthropogenic CO2 emissions.Temperature variability over last 415 000 years.
Source: Salamatin A.N., Lipenkov V.Ya., Barkov N.I., Jouzel J., Petit J.R., Raynaud D. Ice-core age dating and palaeothermometer calibration based on isotope and temperature profiles from deep boreholes at Vostok Station (East Antarctica).- Journal of Geophysical Research, 1998, vol. 103, N D8, pp. 8963-8977.
Criterion for speed of temperature increase is Criterion for speed of temperature increase is nonsense – nonsense –
in the past it has been many times higherin the past it has been many times higherthan it was in the 20than it was in the 20thth century. century.
Speed of temperature rise in Central Greenland for the last 50 thousand yearsSpeed of temperature rise in Central Greenland for the last 50 thousand years
Source: NOAA, GISP2 Ice Core Temperature and Accumulation Data, Alley, R.B., 2004.
Criterion for Criterion for СОСО22 concentration is nonsense – concentration is nonsense –for millions of years for millions of years СОСО22 concentration in the atmosphere concentration in the atmosphere
was much higher than was much higher than 400 400 ppmppm..
lPCC-used and corrected versions of global temperature anomalies indices for Northern Hemisphere, 1400-1980
Source: S. McIntyre, R. McKitrick, Corrections to the Mann et. al. (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemispheric Average Temperature Series, Energy & Environment. Volume 14, Number 6, 2003.
The “hockey stick” seems to be evident deception – The “hockey stick” seems to be evident deception – the very concept of “Global Warming” is basedthe very concept of “Global Warming” is based
on poorly processed, if not falsified, data. on poorly processed, if not falsified, data.
Calculations distorted – Calculations distorted – temperature calculations for the USA temperature calculations for the USA
produced by the UK Hadley Centre are visibly distorted.produced by the UK Hadley Centre are visibly distorted.Difference in temperature anomalies measurementsDifference in temperature anomalies measurements for the continental USA produced by NOAA and Hadley, for the continental USA produced by NOAA and Hadley,
NO Warming in the USA in the 20NO Warming in the USA in the 20thth century – century – temperature temperature ((without urban heat island effect) inwithout urban heat island effect) in 1990 1990s has s has
been been 0,20,2ооС С lower that in latelower that in late 1930 1930s s − − earlyearly 1940 1940ss.. Temperature summer anomalies for the continental USA,Temperature summer anomalies for the continental USA, 11YMA, 111YMA, 1889090−200−20000
Source: Hadley Centre.
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
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C
Imaginary deception – Imaginary deception – decline in ice surface in the Arctic from Septemberdecline in ice surface in the Arctic from September 1979 1979 through through
September 2September 2003003 is result of not a secular trend,. is result of not a secular trend,...
……but of 30 year-long upward trend but of 30 year-long upward trend in the natural 60 year-long temperature variability cycle.in the natural 60 year-long temperature variability cycle.
Temperature anomalies for the Arctic,Temperature anomalies for the Arctic, 11YMA, 111YMA, 1889090−200−20000
Greenland does NOT experience secular Global WarmingGreenland does NOT experience secular Global Warmingsince temperature there today is still lower since temperature there today is still lower
than it was 60 years ago.than it was 60 years ago. Temperature anomalies for the Greenland,Temperature anomalies for the Greenland, 11YMA, 111YMA, 1888080−200−20044
Source: Hadley Centre.
Central Greenland
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
1880
1883
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Rapley
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
NO Warming in Antarctic – NO Warming in Antarctic – for the most of it there is NO ice volume decrease.for the most of it there is NO ice volume decrease.
On the contrary, there is NET ice accumulation there. On the contrary, there is NET ice accumulation there.
Warming in Antarctic is limited Warming in Antarctic is limited to only Antarctic peninsulato only Antarctic peninsula,, that contains only 0,5% of total Antarctic ice, that contains only 0,5% of total Antarctic ice,
the full melting of which over centuriesthe full melting of which over centuriescan potentially contribute to maximumcan potentially contribute to maximum 0,3 m SLE. It is clearly associated 0,3 m SLE. It is clearly associated
not with air warming, but with ocean current.not with air warming, but with ocean current.
……since local temperature was falling over last 40 yearssince local temperature was falling over last 40 years..Temperature in Tanzania and Kenya highlandsTemperature in Tanzania and Kenya highlands, 1961-1995, 1961-1995
Source: GISS, NASA.
17,3
17,4
17,5
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17,8
17,9
18,0
18,1
18,2
18,3
18,4
18,5
18,61
96
11
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21
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31
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41
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Theoretically speaking, over long-run Theoretically speaking, over long-run Gulf Stream may shut down..Gulf Stream may shut down....
……but certainly not in the 21but certainly not in the 21stst century. century.And there is NO detectable THC weakening yet.And there is NO detectable THC weakening yet.
No acidification of oceanNo acidification of ocean
that is principally different from the trend observed during that is principally different from the trend observed during transition from glacial period to pre-industrial one transition from glacial period to pre-industrial one
when there was NO anthropogenic COwhen there was NO anthropogenic CO22 emissions. emissions.
It is especially true in poor countriesIt is especially true in poor countrieswhere it saves literally millions of liveswhere it saves literally millions of lives. .
GDP per capita and fatalities from floods in 119 countries,GDP per capita and fatalities from floods in 119 countries, 19 198585--19961996
СОСО22 emissions are not air pollutant emissions.emissions are not air pollutant emissions.They are moving in different directions. They are moving in different directions.
CCОО22 and air pollutant emissions in the USA (1971 = 100%), and air pollutant emissions in the USA (1971 = 100%), 19197171-200-20011
Source: Statistical Abstract of the USA 2003.
Edmonds
Source: http://www.stabilisation2005.com
Fight against non-existent threat Fight against non-existent threat could cost world economy just peanutscould cost world economy just peanuts!!