THE KYOTO PROTOCOL AND RUSSIA: WHAT IS TO BE DONE? A. Illarionov Adviser to the President of Russia National Press Club, Washington, DC January 30, 2004.

THE KYOTO PROTOCOL AND RUSSIA:WHAT IS TO BE DONE?

A.A. IllarionovIllarionov

Adviser to the President of RussiaAdviser to the President of Russia

National Press Club, Washington, DCNational Press Club, Washington, DC

January 30,January 30, 200 20044

© © InstituteInstitute of Economic Analysisof Economic Analysis

©ИЭА

The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaThe Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaRussia’s total CORussia’s total CO22 emissions are lower than emissions are lower than

those of other countries not adopting emission limitsthose of other countries not adopting emission limits

Total CO2 emissions in 2000

1,4

5,5

2,7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Russia USA China

Bn

t

With limited

emissions

With unlimited emissions

©ИЭА

The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaThe Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaRussia’s CORussia’s CO22 emissions per capita are lower than emissions per capita are lower than

those of other countries not adopting emission limitsthose of other countries not adopting emission limits

CO2 emissions per capita in 2000

9,8

71,4

37,530,2

24,1 22,1 20,1 18,2 15,4

109,6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120R

ussi

a

Virg

inIs

land

s(U

.S.)

Qat

ar

Uni

ted

Ara

bE

mira

tes

Bah

rain

Kuw

ait

Trin

idad

and

Toba

go

US

A

Aus

tralia

Sin

gapo

re

tons

With limited

emissions

With unlimited emissions

©ИЭА

The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaThe Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaRussia’s CORussia’s CO22 emissions per unit of GDP are lower than emissions per unit of GDP are lower than

those of other countries not adopting emission limitsthose of other countries not adopting emission limits

CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in 2000

1,6

8,0

5,3

2,3 2,2 2,2 2,0 1,9 1,9 1,9

14,4

02468

1012141618

Rus

sia

Virg

inIs

land

s(U

.S.)

Qat

ar

Bahr

ain Iraq

UAE

Ukr

aine

Azer

baija

n

Brun

ei

Uzb

ekis

tan

Kuw

ait

kg p

er P

PP $

of G

DP

With limited

emissions

With unlimited emissions

©ИЭА

The Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaThe Kyoto Protocol is discriminatory against RussiaRussia’s GDP per capita is lower thanRussia’s GDP per capita is lower than

those of other countries not adopting emission limitsthose of other countries not adopting emission limits

GDP per capita in 2003

7,9

35,731,1

26,721,9 19,7

16,8 14,7 13,2 12,2 11,1 11,0 10,3

05

1015202530354045

Rus

sia

US

A

Sin

gapo

re

Aus

tral

ia

Cyp

rus

Isra

el

Kor

ea

UA

E

Chi

le

Kuw

ait

Om

an

S.A

rabi

a

Qat

ar

thou

s. P

PP

199

9 U

S$

With

lim

ited

e

mis

sion

s With unlimited emissions

©ИЭА

Kyoto 2012 limit

Kyoto 2050 limitActual

Conservative forecast

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

20

22

20

24

20

26

20

28

20

30

20

32

20

34

20

36

20

38

20

40

20

42

20

44

20

46

20

48

20

50

Mln

t

Seller Buyer

The Russia's Kyoto Cross.The Russia's Kyoto Cross.Under the Kyoto Protocol Russia will be a buyer, not a seller of COUnder the Kyoto Protocol Russia will be a buyer, not a seller of CO22 quotas. quotas.

(Actual Russia’s CO(Actual Russia’s CO22 emissions, conservative forecast emissions, conservative forecast

and its Kyoto Protocol limits) and its Kyoto Protocol limits)

?

©ИЭА

The Russia’s Kyoto Trap.The Russia’s Kyoto Trap.Under the Kyoto Protocol Russia won’t be able to sell its COUnder the Kyoto Protocol Russia won’t be able to sell its CO22 quotas. quotas.

(Forecast of CO(Forecast of CO22 quotas market in the EU in 2008-2012) quotas market in the EU in 2008-2012)

1954 491 1617 1 813 3921 5180

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

EU EU Central andEasternEurope

Ukraine Total Russia

mln

t

+ =+

Potential Demand

P o t e n t I a l S u p p l y

(Превышение фактической

эмиссии CO2 над обязательствами

в 1-й фазе КП)

1 2 3

Sequence of purchases according to the EU Directive adopted by the

EU Parliament 02.07.03 and accepted by the EU Council 22.07.03

4

©ИЭА

With Russia

47,2

30,4

24,2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

19

50

19

53

19

56

19

59

19

62

19

65

19

68

19

71

19

74

19

77

19

80

19

83

19

86

19

89

19

92

19

95

19

98

pe

r c

en

t

Without Russia

The Kyoto protocol’s inefficiency.The Kyoto protocol’s inefficiency.The Kyoto Protocol is unable to achieve its proclaimed goals.The Kyoto Protocol is unable to achieve its proclaimed goals.

((The share of the KP Annex B countries in the World’s COThe share of the KP Annex B countries in the World’s CO22 emissions) emissions)

©ИЭА

The Kyoto Protocol is not universal.The Kyoto Protocol is not universal.It is backed by the World minority.It is backed by the World minority.

The World majority did not adopt the Kyoto Protocol limits.The World majority did not adopt the Kyoto Protocol limits.((The share of the KP Annex B countries in the World aggregates)The share of the KP Annex B countries in the World aggregates)

27,2

36,4

12,3

24,2

32,4

10,1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

in CO2 Emission in GDP in Population

per

cen

t

1990 2000

©ИЭА

The Kyoto Protocol puts brakes on economic growthThe Kyoto Protocol puts brakes on economic growth

GDP growth in 1997-2003

2,0

3,1

0,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,5

17 Pro-Kyoto Developed Economies(EU15, Canada, Japan)

11 Non-Kyoto Developed Economies(USA, Australia, Taiwan, Korea,Hong Kong, Singapore, Israel,

Mexico, Cyprus, Malta)

per

cen

t

©ИЭА

The Kyoto Protocol incompatible with economic growth.The Kyoto Protocol incompatible with economic growth.COCO2 2 emissions are associated with economic growthemissions are associated with economic growth

in the mid-income countries (47 countries),1960-2000in the mid-income countries (47 countries),1960-2000

y = 0,44x + 1,17

R 2 = 0,71

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

CO2 emissions annual growth rates, %

GD

P a

nn

ual

gro

wth

rat

es, %

Doubling GDP

Kyoto 2012

Kyoto 2050

-3.5

©ИЭА

The Kyoto Protocol is incompatible with poverty reduction.The Kyoto Protocol is incompatible with poverty reduction.COCO2 2 emissions are associated with economic growthemissions are associated with economic growth

in the low-income countries (52 countries),1960-2000in the low-income countries (52 countries),1960-2000

y = 0,48x + 1,22

R 2 = 0,66

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15СО2 emissions annual growth rates, %

GD

P a

nn

ua

l g

row

th r

ate

s,

%

©ИЭА

The Kyoto Protocol is incompatible with wealth accumulation.The Kyoto Protocol is incompatible with wealth accumulation. СОСО22 emission are associated with economic growthemission are associated with economic growth

in developed economies, too (3in developed economies, too (38 8 countries), 19countries), 1991-200091-2000

y = 0,53x + 2,05

R 2 = 0,71

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

CO2 emissions annual growth rate, %

GD

P a

nn

ua

l g

row

th r

ate

, %

©ИЭАSource: Climate Change 2001 Synthesis Report, IPCC, p.119.

The Kyoto Protocol is unbearably expensive.The Kyoto Protocol is unbearably expensive.The cost of compliance can be as high as 1750 US$ tlnThe cost of compliance can be as high as 1750 US$ tln

between 1990 and 2100, or 15% of their annual GDP in affected countriesbetween 1990 and 2100, or 15% of their annual GDP in affected countries

©ИЭА

The Kyoto Protocol is oriented on technological illusions.The Kyoto Protocol is oriented on technological illusions.It’s impossible to switch away from hydrocarbonsIt’s impossible to switch away from hydrocarbonsto another energy base in a short period of timeto another energy base in a short period of time

World energy consumption by source of originWorld energy consumption by source of origin

81,0%

6,8%2,3%

9,9%

Hydrocarbons

Nuclear

Hydro

Other

©ИЭА

The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science.The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science.The variation of COThe variation of CO22 concentration can not be explained concentration can not be explained

by variation in COby variation in CO22 emissions of anthropogenic character emissions of anthropogenic character

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1750

1767

1784

1801

1818

1835

1852

1869

1886

1903

1920

1937

1954

1971

1988

Ln

(CO

2 em

issi

on

, t

)

5,455,505,555,605,655,705,755,805,855,905,956,00

Ln

(CO

2 co

nce

ntr

atio

n,

pp

m)

CO2 emission of athropogenic character, t CO2 concentration, ppm

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2003.

©ИЭА

The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science. The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science. The variation in temperature can not be explainedThe variation in temperature can not be explained

by the variation in COby the variation in CO22 concentration concentration

13,6

13,7

13,8

13,9

14,0

14,1

14,2

18

60

18

70

18

80

18

90

19

00

19

10

19

20

19

30

19

40

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

Glo

ba

l ab

so

lute

te

mp

era

ture

, oC

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

CO

2 c

on

ce

ntr

ati

on

, pp

m

Global absolute temperature, oC CO2 concentration, ppm

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2003.

©ИЭА

The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science. The Kyoto protocol is based on flawed science. The variation in temperature can not be explainedThe variation in temperature can not be explained

by variation in COby variation in CO22 emissions of anthropogenic character emissions of anthropogenic character

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, 2003.

13,6

13,7

13,8

13,9

14,0

14,1

14,2

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Glo

bal

ab

solu

te t

emp

erat

ure

, o

C

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

CO

2 em

issi

on

, m

ln t

Global absolute temperature, oCCO2 emission of anthropogenic character, mln t

©ИЭА

The Kyoto Protocol is based on flawed science. The Kyoto Protocol is based on flawed science. The variation in temperature is positively correlated with variation in COThe variation in temperature is positively correlated with variation in CO22

concentration only from 1976-2003. This is the ONLY such sub-periodconcentration only from 1976-2003. This is the ONLY such sub-periodout of 6 sub-periods between 1860 and 2003out of 6 sub-periods between 1860 and 2003

Variation in CO2 concentration and variation in temperature

0,26 0,250,49

1,01

1,57

0,32

0,0008

0,0088

-0,0030

0,0058

0,0105

-0,0012

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

1860-1901 1901-1930 1930-1944 1944-1963 1963-1976 1976-2003

pp

m\y

ear

-0,004

-0,002

0,000

0,002

0,004

0,006

0,008

0,010

0,012

de

gre

es

C\y

ea

r

Change in CO2 concentration Change in global temperature

©ИЭА

The very concept of “Global Warming”The very concept of “Global Warming”critically depends on the time horizon chosen.critically depends on the time horizon chosen.It appears reasonable for short-term periods.It appears reasonable for short-term periods.AbsoluteAbsolute temperature (temperature (3030 YMA) YMA),, England, 1659-2002 England, 1659-2002

y = 0,002x + 8,8467

R2 = 0,5265

8,0

8,2

8,4

8,6

8,8

9,0

9,2

9,4

9,6

9,8

10,0

1688

1704

1720

1736

1752

1768

1784

1800

1816

1832

1848

1864

1880

1896

1912

1928

1944

1960

1976

1992

degr

ees

Source: www.met-office.gov.uk.

©ИЭА

The very concept of “Global Warming”The very concept of “Global Warming”critically depends on the time horizon chosen.critically depends on the time horizon chosen.It appears unproven for longer-term periods.It appears unproven for longer-term periods.

AbsoluteAbsolute temperature (temperature (3030 YMA) YMA),, NE Canada (Baffin Island), 752-1992 NE Canada (Baffin Island), 752-1992

y = -0,0002x + 3,048

R2 = 0,0495

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

781

840

899

958

1017

1076

1135

1194

1253

1312

1371

1430

1489

1548

1607

1666

1725

1784

1843

1902

1961

degre

es

Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.

©ИЭА

The very concept of “Global Warming”The very concept of “Global Warming”critically depends on the time horizon chosen.critically depends on the time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for longer-term periods. It appears unproven for longer-term periods.

Absolute temperatureAbsolute temperature ((3030 YMA) YMA),, Tasmania,1571 BC - 1991 AD Tasmania,1571 BC - 1991 AD

y = -2E-05x + 15,019

R2 = 0,0057

14,0

14,2

14,4

14,6

14,8

15,0

15,2

15,4

15,6

15,8

-1571

-1396

-1221

-1046

-871

-696

-521

-346

-171 4

179

354

529

704

879

1054

1229

1404

1579

1754

1929

degre

es

Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.

©ИЭАSource: Grootes, P.M., Stuiver, M., White, J.W.C., Johnsen, S.J., Jouzel J., Comparison of oxygen isotope records from the GISP and GRIP Greenland ice cores. Nature 366, 1993, pp.552-554.

The very concept of “Global Warming” critically depends on the The very concept of “Global Warming” critically depends on the time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for longer-term periods.time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for longer-term periods.

The current “Global Warming” is not unique and is not strongest The current “Global Warming” is not unique and is not strongest in the history of civilization.in the history of civilization.

Variation in temperature in the last 5000 yearsVariation in temperature in the last 5000 years

Distribution of Oxygen δ18О in the upper part of the kern from drill GISР2 (last 5000 years)

©ИЭА

Source: J.R. Petit et al. (19 authors). Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. -Nature, 399 (1999), 429-436.

The very concept of “Global Warming” critically depends on the The very concept of “Global Warming” critically depends on the time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for long-term periods. time horizon chosen. It appears unproven for long-term periods.

The current “Global Warming” is not unique and is not strongest The current “Global Warming” is not unique and is not strongest in the history of Earth. in the history of Earth.

The long-term (M.Milankovitch) climatic cycles for the last 420 000 years.The long-term (M.Milankovitch) climatic cycles for the last 420 000 years.

о

Te

mp

era

ture

ano

mal

ies

(Со)

©ИЭА

The asserted increase in the frequencyThe asserted increase in the frequencyof extraordinary climatic events appears unproven.of extraordinary climatic events appears unproven.

Variance in temperature (Variance in temperature (3030 YMA) YMA),, England, 1659-2002 England, 1659-2002

y = -0,0006x + 0,4267

R2 = 0,2589

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

1688

1703

1718

1733

1748

1763

1778

1793

1808

1823

1838

1853

1868

1883

1898

1913

1928

1943

1958

1973

1988

Source: www.met-office.gov.uk.

©ИЭА

The asserted increase in the frequency The asserted increase in the frequency of extraordinary climatic events appears unproven.of extraordinary climatic events appears unproven.

Variance in temperatureVariance in temperature (30 YMA)(30 YMA),, NE Canada (Baffin Island), 752-1992 NE Canada (Baffin Island), 752-1992

y = -8E-05x + 0,7695

R2 = 0,0074

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

781

837

893

949

1005

1061

1117

1173

1229

1285

1341

1397

1453

1509

1565

1621

1677

1733

1789

1845

1901

1957

Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.

©ИЭА

The asserted increase in the frequencyThe asserted increase in the frequencyof extraordinary climatic events appears unproven. of extraordinary climatic events appears unproven.

Variance in temperature (Variance in temperature (3030 YMA) YMA),, Tasmania, 1751 BC – 1991 AD Tasmania, 1751 BC – 1991 AD

y = -1E-05x + 0,2099

R2 = 0,0222

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

-157

1

-140

7

-124

3

-107

9

-915

-751

-587

-423

-259 -95 69 233

397

561

725

889

1053

1217

1381

1545

1709

1873

Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.

©ИЭА

Asserted increase in the speed Asserted increase in the speed of the current temperature change appears unproven. of the current temperature change appears unproven.

It is not unique and is not strongest in the last 1000 years.It is not unique and is not strongest in the last 1000 years.Change in the global temperature over 30 preceding yearsChange in the global temperature over 30 preceding years

©ИЭА

Asserted increase in the speed Asserted increase in the speed of the current temperature change appears unproven.of the current temperature change appears unproven.

It is not unique and is not strongest in the last 4000 years. It is not unique and is not strongest in the last 4000 years. Change in temperature over Change in temperature over 3030 preceding years preceding years,, Tasmania, 1751BC–1991AD Tasmania, 1751BC–1991AD

y = 1E-07x + 0,0014

R2 = 1E-07

-1,0

-0,8

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

-154

1

-136

9

-119

7

-102

5

-853

-681

-509

-337

-165 7

179

351

523

695

867

1039

1211

1383

1555

1727

1899

degr

ees

Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.

©ИЭА

y = -0,0001x + 13,825

R2 = 0,1334

13,2

13,3

13,4

13,5

13,6

13,7

13,8

13,9

14,0

14,1

14,2

1029

1077

1125

1173

1221

1269

1317

1365

1413

1461

1509

1557

1605

1653

1701

1749

1797

1845

1893

1941

1989

degre

es

Mother Nature’s Weapon of Mass Destruction is actuallyMother Nature’s Weapon of Mass Destruction is actuallyGlobal Cooling, not Global Warming. Global Cooling, not Global Warming.

In the history of civilization climatic optimums are more associated with In the history of civilization climatic optimums are more associated with prosperity and progress, ice ages – with hardships and catastrophes.prosperity and progress, ice ages – with hardships and catastrophes.

Global absolute temperatureGlobal absolute temperature ((3030 YMA) YMA),, 1000-2003 1000-2003

Source: World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder, USA.

Little Ice Age

Little Climatic Optimum

New Climatic Optimum

©ИЭАSource: Grootes, P.M., Stuiver, M., White, J.W.C., Johnsen, S.J., Jouzel J., Comparison of oxygen isotope records from the GISP and GRIP Greenland ice cores. Nature 366, 1993, pp.552-554.

Mother Nature’s Weapon of Mass Destruction is actuallyMother Nature’s Weapon of Mass Destruction is actually Global Cooling, not Global Warming. Global Cooling, not Global Warming.

In the history of humanity climatic optimums are more associated with In the history of humanity climatic optimums are more associated with prosperity and progress, ice ages – with hardships and catastrophes.prosperity and progress, ice ages – with hardships and catastrophes.

VVariation in temperature in the last 5000 yearsariation in temperature in the last 5000 years

Distribution of Oxygen δ18О in the upper part of the kern from drill GISР2 (last 5000 years)