The future of the teaching profession Reflections during a Masters programme Marco Snoek, Hogeschool van Amsterdam M.Snoek@hva.nl.

The future of the teaching profession

Reflections during a Masters’ programme

Marco Snoek, Hogeschool van Amsterdam

M.Snoek@hva.nl

Future scenarios in Education

• The future has already started …

• … we just don’’t know yet how it will look like

• Schools and teacher education are lagging behind

Future scenarios are …

No predictions Descriptions of ‘possible futures’ ‘Educated guesses’

“Scenarios are stories. They are

Scenarios are stories. They are

works of art, rather than scientific

works of art, rather than scientific

analyses. The reliability (of the

analyses. The reliability (of the

content) is less important than

content) is less important than

the types of conversations, the types of conversations,

learning and decisions they spark”

learning and decisions they spark”

Predictions vs scenarios

Predictions Scenarios

Intend to increase certainty

Intend to show uncertainty

Hide risks Clarify risks

Single lineair projections

Alternative possible images of the future

Strengthen inertia Stimulate flexibility and sensitivity

Scenarios as a strategic tool

Anticipating possible changes in society, economics, politics, technology, demography, …

Safe strategies: • windtunnel testing: preparing for every

possible scenario

Define your own future• Chosing your most desirable scenario• Influencing the future

Scenario-examples

Hierarchical

Participatory

InclusiveExclusive

OrthodoxiesOrthodoxies

Wired for Wired for learninglearning

Learning Learning societysociety

OrthodoxyOrthodoxy

Scenarios as a reflection and learning tool

• Beyond the ‘here’ and ‘now’• Stimulate out-of-the-box thinking • Opening up mindsets• System thinking

• FUN!

Four steps:

1. Analyzing Research into trends, external orientation

2. Selecting Scenario-axes

3. Creating Out-of-the-box thinking

4. Reflecting Advice and strategic decisions

Scenario methodology

Unpredictability

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Impact

Key-dilemmasTrends

Selecting the axes

Basis: scenario-matrix

• Two independent and unpredictable variables (driving forces)

• Four scenarios at the extremes

Variabele 1

Variabele 2

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Scenario 4 Scenario 3

Scenario work in the Master

• Final semester: integrating different strands

• Trends in society and education – OECD: Trends shaping education– Open brainstorm

• Selecting axes• Scenario development (still ongoing)• Reflections

– Impact on your future role as a master teacher– Your responsibility towards the future

Trends influencing the future of the teaching profession

High impact, highly predictable• Market orientation and focus on output• Flexibilisation of jobs, focus on employability,

competition. Careers as enterprise • Globalized knowledge economyHigh impact, highly unpredictable• Attention for diversity• School as a social anchor• Professionals in the lead• Education 2.0: student as prosumer in social

networks Medium impact, highly unpredictable• Research and evidence in educationLow impact, highly predictable• Feminisation

Potential axes

Scenarios for the future of the teaching profession

Teacher in the lead

Assurance through governance

Student as prosumer

Student as consumer

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Scenario 3Scenario 4

Key dilemma 1

Management and control in education• emphasis on the role and professionalism

of teachers supporting the call ‘Professional in the lead’,

versus• a need within neo-liberal bureaucracies to

control the quality of education and teaching through managers, school boards or national agencies and regulations.

Key dilemma 2

The role of the teacher in the class room and the responsibilities that are given to pupils

• Pupils as consumers of ready-made learning content

versus• Pupils as producers (or prosumers) who

have an active role in the development of knowledge and learning content.

Scenario 1: wishdom of crowds

Teachers in the lead – students as prosumers• Reduced management (non-productive

overhead)• Working and learning in

communities.• Contributing to developing/-

evaluating knowledge and learning materials

• Professional-led register and professional oath

Scenario 2

Teachers in the lead – students as consumers

• Educational entrepreneurs• Professional led CPD• Certificate led: schools, teachers, pupils• Standardized performance levels with

Bricks• Schools as brands

Scenario 3Assurance through governance – students as

consumers• Knowledge represents economic value• European Knowledge bank• European basic kwalfications (EQF)• Monitoring of participants inside and outside

schools through webcams• Tight system for managing learning paths

Scenario 4

Assurance through governance and students as prosumers

• European educational system (Eur. Quality Level Law)

• Lifeling Learning Individual Portfolio LLIP• EuroWebContent2020 is dynamic content

resourse with contributions from companies, teachers and pupils (gaining bonuspoints when their content is added to EWC2020).

Issues for discussion

• To what extend are the identified trends relevant for contexts outside The Netherlands?

• Which of the scenarios do the participants identify as most probable, most desirable or worst case for their country?

• What are the implications for initial and in-service teacher education?