The future of the teaching profession Reflections during a Masters’ programme Marco Snoek, Hogeschool van Amsterdam [email protected]
Mar 28, 2015
The future of the teaching profession
Reflections during a Masters’ programme
Marco Snoek, Hogeschool van Amsterdam
Future scenarios in Education
• The future has already started …
• … we just don’’t know yet how it will look like
• Schools and teacher education are lagging behind
Future scenarios are …
No predictions Descriptions of ‘possible futures’ ‘Educated guesses’
“Scenarios are stories. They are
Scenarios are stories. They are
works of art, rather than scientific
works of art, rather than scientific
analyses. The reliability (of the
analyses. The reliability (of the
content) is less important than
content) is less important than
the types of conversations, the types of conversations,
learning and decisions they spark”
learning and decisions they spark”
Predictions vs scenarios
Predictions Scenarios
Intend to increase certainty
Intend to show uncertainty
Hide risks Clarify risks
Single lineair projections
Alternative possible images of the future
Strengthen inertia Stimulate flexibility and sensitivity
Scenarios as a strategic tool
Anticipating possible changes in society, economics, politics, technology, demography, …
Safe strategies: • windtunnel testing: preparing for every
possible scenario
Define your own future• Chosing your most desirable scenario• Influencing the future
Scenario-examples
Hierarchical
Participatory
InclusiveExclusive
OrthodoxiesOrthodoxies
Wired for Wired for learninglearning
Learning Learning societysociety
OrthodoxyOrthodoxy
Scenarios as a reflection and learning tool
• Beyond the ‘here’ and ‘now’• Stimulate out-of-the-box thinking • Opening up mindsets• System thinking
• FUN!
Four steps:
1. Analyzing Research into trends, external orientation
2. Selecting Scenario-axes
3. Creating Out-of-the-box thinking
4. Reflecting Advice and strategic decisions
Scenario methodology
Unpredictability
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Impact
Key-dilemmasTrends
Selecting the axes
Basis: scenario-matrix
• Two independent and unpredictable variables (driving forces)
• Four scenarios at the extremes
Variabele 1
Variabele 2
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Scenario 4 Scenario 3
Scenario work in the Master
• Final semester: integrating different strands
• Trends in society and education – OECD: Trends shaping education– Open brainstorm
• Selecting axes• Scenario development (still ongoing)• Reflections
– Impact on your future role as a master teacher– Your responsibility towards the future
Trends influencing the future of the teaching profession
High impact, highly predictable• Market orientation and focus on output• Flexibilisation of jobs, focus on employability,
competition. Careers as enterprise • Globalized knowledge economyHigh impact, highly unpredictable• Attention for diversity• School as a social anchor• Professionals in the lead• Education 2.0: student as prosumer in social
networks Medium impact, highly unpredictable• Research and evidence in educationLow impact, highly predictable• Feminisation
Potential axes
Scenarios for the future of the teaching profession
Teacher in the lead
Assurance through governance
Student as prosumer
Student as consumer
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Scenario 3Scenario 4
Key dilemma 1
Management and control in education• emphasis on the role and professionalism
of teachers supporting the call ‘Professional in the lead’,
versus• a need within neo-liberal bureaucracies to
control the quality of education and teaching through managers, school boards or national agencies and regulations.
Key dilemma 2
The role of the teacher in the class room and the responsibilities that are given to pupils
• Pupils as consumers of ready-made learning content
versus• Pupils as producers (or prosumers) who
have an active role in the development of knowledge and learning content.
Scenario 1: wishdom of crowds
Teachers in the lead – students as prosumers• Reduced management (non-productive
overhead)• Working and learning in
communities.• Contributing to developing/-
evaluating knowledge and learning materials
• Professional-led register and professional oath
Scenario 2
Teachers in the lead – students as consumers
• Educational entrepreneurs• Professional led CPD• Certificate led: schools, teachers, pupils• Standardized performance levels with
Bricks• Schools as brands
Scenario 3Assurance through governance – students as
consumers• Knowledge represents economic value• European Knowledge bank• European basic kwalfications (EQF)• Monitoring of participants inside and outside
schools through webcams• Tight system for managing learning paths
Scenario 4
Assurance through governance and students as prosumers
• European educational system (Eur. Quality Level Law)
• Lifeling Learning Individual Portfolio LLIP• EuroWebContent2020 is dynamic content
resourse with contributions from companies, teachers and pupils (gaining bonuspoints when their content is added to EWC2020).
Issues for discussion
• To what extend are the identified trends relevant for contexts outside The Netherlands?
• Which of the scenarios do the participants identify as most probable, most desirable or worst case for their country?
• What are the implications for initial and in-service teacher education?