SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY karhen@foi.se ulf.a.jonsson@foi.se Karl Henriksson Ulf Jonsson Swedish Defence Research Agency Construction of a tool for.

SWEDISH DEFENCERESEARCH AGENCY

karhen@foi.seulf.a.jonsson@foi.se

Karl HenrikssonUlf Jonsson

Swedish Defence Research Agency

Construction of a tool for economic analysis of force structures,

and its use in the transformationof the Swedish Armed Forces

SWEDISH DEFENCERESEARCH AGENCY

karhen@foi.seulf.a.jonsson@foi.se

Agenda

• Context of the tool• The tool it self• Cross-road issue• Basis of the tool• Lessons Learned• Conclusions

SWEDISH DEFENCERESEARCH AGENCY

karhen@foi.seulf.a.jonsson@foi.se

Now + 10 years + 20 years

Step 1

Armed Forces

Structures

Step 2Step 2

Legacystructure

FutureConcepts

and vision

Method - Long Term Planning

SWEDISH DEFENCERESEARCH AGENCY

karhen@foi.seulf.a.jonsson@foi.se

EBV - The Tool

• EBV - Swedish acronym for “Economical Calculation Tool”

• Spread sheet model

• Big data base

• Economical calculations of complete future Force Structures– Economical possibilities of implementation within the timeframe – Highlighting the important decisions during the period 2005-2007– Operational use– Entire national infrastructure– Modelling of different manning provision solutions

• Quick answers to big questions

SWEDISH DEFENCERESEARCH AGENCY

karhen@foi.seulf.a.jonsson@foi.se

Cross-road issue

ConscriptionProfessional forces

Full time employed soldiers

SWEDISH DEFENCERESEARCH AGENCY

karhen@foi.seulf.a.jonsson@foi.se

Basis of the tool

• Quick economic calculation of different Force Structures over time• The base for calculation is the land, sea and air units

• Modelling different manning provisions• Modelling different infrastructure for training• Calculation of “phasing in” and “phasing out” units and equipment

SWEDISH DEFENCERESEARCH AGENCY

karhen@foi.seulf.a.jonsson@foi.se

Year 1-3 Year 4-6 Year 10-14 Year 15-19

Levelling the use of appropriation

Year 7-9£

Alt 1

Roughly levelling the use of appropriations

OperationProcurement Phasing outDevelopment

Alt 2

£

Level of appropriation

Level of appropriation

OperationProcurement Phasing outDevelopment

SWEDISH DEFENCERESEARCH AGENCY

karhen@foi.seulf.a.jonsson@foi.se

Lessons Learned - Pros

General• One single computer model = Consistent calculations• MS Excel is flexible

– “Common knowledge”.

– Easy to make changes in the tool

EBV• The tool is well suited for its purpose• The tool has been easy to use• Created wider awareness in the SwAF HQ of economical thinking

SWEDISH DEFENCERESEARCH AGENCY

karhen@foi.seulf.a.jonsson@foi.se

Lessons Learned - Cons

General• When constructing a model it is important to first find out

– which data is readily available

– what types of results are desired by decision-makers and the way to deliver the results.

• Decide on the level of generalisation of the model and try to stick to it.• Organisational inexperience of conceptual modelling => poor acceptance • Don’t use the model outside its area of validity

EBV• Risk of Force Structures design directly in the tool• Paradox: initial doubts => great enthusiasm => disapproval

– Wrong expectations of the level of detail in the results of the tool

SWEDISH DEFENCERESEARCH AGENCY

karhen@foi.seulf.a.jonsson@foi.se

Conclusions

• A very useful tool

• Figure out what types of results are desired by decision-makers

• Use already existing data when constructing a model

• Communicate what the model can and cannot be used for and don’t let it be used for anything else.

SWEDISH DEFENCERESEARCH AGENCY

karhen@foi.seulf.a.jonsson@foi.se

Questions?

karhen@foi.se

ulf.a.jonsson@foi.se