Source: NASA, MODIS Earth a global check up Michael Reed Associate Professor of Geography Glendale Community College.

Source: NASA, MODIS

Earth a global check up

Michael ReedAssociate Professor of Geography

Glendale Community College

How long has she had birds?130 million years

When did she have dinosaurs?

265-65 million years ago

When did mammals start to increase on her surface?60 million years ago

When did she first contract homo sapiens?200,000 years

When did her humans first start to form hives?In just the last 10,000 years

When did her destructive chain-smoking habit begin?175 years ago

Patient Medical History

Age of patient? 4.6 billion yearsHow long has she had complex life? 500 million years

“What seems to be the problem?”

The Earth is showing signs of feeling a bit sick lately.

First, she’s got an infection of humans that is growing like a cancer and is highly resistant to all known treatments.

Source: Hugo Ahlenius. 2003. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. Global Environmental Outlook 3, 2002.

Human Impact on the Environment, 1700Human Impact on the Environment, 2002Human Impact on the Environment, 2032

The first hominids roamed eastern Africa 5-7 million years ago.

Humanity has wandered the earth for a very long time.

The first modern humans walked out of Africa as hunter-gatherers only 70,000 years ago.

Graph Source: www.census.gov & www.wikipedia.org

At that time there were probably about 1 million humans on Earth

Graph Source: www.census.gov & www.wikipedia.org

When Darwin published On the Origin of Species there were 1 billion humans

Graph Source: www.census.gov & www.wikipedia.org

When I was born there were3.6 billion humans

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the world population at:

6,914,504,604 humans today

…and counting!

The infection is growing.

LANDSAT Images 1973 - 2006

Las Vegas, Nevada

It also seems to be getting stronger at the moment.

Source: A. Maddison. 2003. World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1-2003 AD. http://www.ggdc.net/MADDISON/oriindex.htm

But humanity grows by eating away at its host. It uses 30% of all trapped photosynthetic energy, leaving little for other species.

Source: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). 2005. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Source: World Wildlife Fund. 2010. Living Planet Report. http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/living_planet_report/2010_lpr/

Human demands on renewable resources now exceed nature’s supply by about 30%.

California

And the non-renewable resources are never coming back. We are depleting them rapidly as fuel, fertilizer, and plastics.

UtahCalifornia

Photo Credits: Ed Burtynsky. Manufactured Landscapes. 2003.

The reality is that Earth’s ecosystems, our only store of long term wealth, are generally in decline.

Source: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). 2005. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

The 1000+ scientists involved in the United Nations Millenium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) concluded that 15 of 24 ecosystem services are in serious decline and five are in a precarious condition.

Over the last 500 million years, more new species evolved than went extinct.

It’s only during rare cataclysmic events that large numbers of species were extincted.

Source: Withgott and Brennan. 2009. The Essential Environment. Pearson. Data from Raup, D.M. et al. 1982. Mass extinctions in the fossil record. Science 215.

Today this pattern is rapidly reversing due to human interference.

In the last 500 years, human activity extincted at least 869 species.

Sources: International Union for Conservation of Nature. www.iucn.org; National Geographic Society. www.ngs.org

The current species extinction rate is between 100 and 1,000 times higher than the natural or ‘background’ rate and is accelerating.

One in three amphibians and almost half of all tortoises and fresh water turtles are threatened.

One in four mammals and one in eight birds face a high risk of extinction in the near future.

The number of species known to be threatened with extinction has topped 16,928!

We are entering the 6th mass extinction event.

The world’s forests are half gone and are still

disappearing

Brazil

Degraded Forest LandscapesOriginal forest coverCurrent forest cover

Formerly forest, now croplands

Formerly forest, now pasture

Pristine Forest Landscapes

Tropical deforestation 2000-2005

Source: World Resources Institute / South Dakota State University, 2009

The World’s ForestsRemaining and Lost

LANDSAT Images1973 - 2004

Iguazu Falls, Argentina / Paraguay

Source: UNEP. 2005. One Planet, Many People.http://na.unep.net/atlas/onePlanetManyPeople/book.php

LANDSAT Images 1975 - 2003

Santa Cruz, Bolivia

Source: UNEP. 2005. One Planet, Many People. http://na.unep.net/atlas/onePlanetManyPeople/book.php

LANDSAT Images 1974 - 2000

Mexico-Guatemala Border Region

Source: UNEP. 2005. One Planet, Many People.http://na.unep.net/atlas/onePlanetManyPeople/book.php

The world’s wetlands are half gone and are still disappearing.

Roughly 90% of California’s wetlands are gone!

About 35% of mangroves have been destroyed over just the last 25 years.

Source: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). 2005. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Gulf of Fonseca, Honduras

LANDSAT Images 1987 - 1999

The world’s grasslands are half gone, lost to agriculture, pasture land, and urbanization.

Agribusiness and feedlot near Bakersfield, California

20% of coral reefs were lost and an additional 20% were degraded in just the last several decades of the twentieth century.

Source: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). 2005. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

More than 50% of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef had collapsed by 1950.

Source: ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at the University of Queensland , 2012.

Her lungs are fouled by pollution from smoking.

Air pollution from smoke and various chemicals kills 3 million people a year worldwide.

Source: D. Pimentel, et al. Cornell University. Human Ecology. 2007. Vol. 39, Dec.Ecology of Increasing Diseases: Population Growth and Environmental Degradation.

In the United States alone about 3 million tons of toxic chemicals are released into the environment each year - contributing to cancer, birth defects, immune system defects and many other serious health problems.

Three Gorges Dam, China

Her arteries are clogged with dams and polluted with toxic chemicals.

Lake Powell, Arizona

40% of U.S. rivers, lakes, and streams are not fit for swimming, fishing, or drinking.

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 1994. Nonpoint Source Pollution: The Nation's Largest Water Quality Problem. Data from National Water Quality Inventory. http://water.epa.gov 

80% of China’s rivers are unfit for human contact. Aquatic life in these rivers is in decline.

Source: State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA), 2002. Report on the State of the Environment in China 2002. Environmental Information Centre (SEPA),

Beijing.

Dongxiang, China 

There are hundreds of hypoxic dead zones in the world’s oceans today, a massive increase in my life.

Sources: Diaz, R. J., & Rosenberg, R. (2008). Spreading Dead Zones and Consequences for Marine Ecosystems. Science, 321.NASA Earth Observatory.http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/44000/44677/dead_zones_lrg.jpg

75% of all fisheries are at their limits, are declining, or have collapsed.

Source: Ransom A Myers, B. Worm. 2003. Rapid worldwide depletion of predatory fish communities. Nature: London.

Fish (date) % DeclineWestern Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (2000) 97Atlantic White Marlin (2000) 94Atlantic Blue Marlin (2000) 80Atlantic Bigeye Tuna (1998) 72North Atlantic Swordfish 64Large Coastal Sharks 50-80

Source: Recreation Fishing Alliance. 1998. Rebuilding North Atlantic Swordfish: A Report to Congress and the Administration.

Large predatory fish are already largely gone.

Atlantic Cod Annual Catch, 1850-2004North Atlantic Cod Catch, 1850-2004

Even with the newest technologies we are not catching any more wild fish.

Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. Retrieved 04:59, April 26, 2011

About 1.8 billion people currently live in areas experiencing severe water stress.

Source: UNESCO-WWAP. 2006. 2nd UN World Water Development Report.

Increasingly our patient is dehydrated and thirsty.

Flow of the Colorado River

Colorado River Delta, Mexico

LANDSAT Images 1973 - 2004

The Aral Sea

Source: UNEP. 2005. One Planet, Many People. http://na.unep.net/atlas/onePlanetManyPeople/book.php

Photo: David Harvey. www.mongliza.com

Ancient aquifers are overpumped in many countries. 175 million Indians and 130 million Chinese are fed with grain irrigated by overpumping wells.  

Source: Lester Brown. 2010. Plan B 4.0 Mobilizing to Save Civilization. http://www.earth-policy.org/index.php?/books/pb4/pb4_table_of_contents

Jordan

Pivot Irrigation Wells, Kansas

Now to the most ominous symptom of all: a fever that’s rising fast.

The 10 hottest years on record in order:

2010200519982003200220092006200720042001

Source: National Climate Data Center (NOAA). 2011. Global Surface Temperature Anomalies. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/

The yellow arrow indicates when the first agricultural towns were built.

The Earth’s temperature was remarkably stable over the 10,000 years.

Source: Intergovermental Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA). 2004. http://www.acia.uaf.edu/pages/scientific.html

Carbon dioxide levels are still rising in her lungs.

Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program. 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. www.globalchange.gov. Source: Worldwatch Institute. 2007. Vital Signs 2007-2008.

Yet she continues to smoke.

The resulting temperature increases will exacerbate all of her other health problems.

Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program. 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. www.globalchange.gov.

She is already suffering frequent hot flashes, dehydration, sweats, and chills.

Hurricane Katrina, 2005

Her glaciers are melting much faster than predicted.

Extreme weather events are becoming more common; severe droughts, floods, fires, heat waves, blizzards are all increasing in frequency.

Lake Hindmarsh, Victoria, Australia. May, 2007Sources: Min, S.-K. et al. Nature 470, 378-381 (2011); Pall, P. et al. Nature 470, 382-385

(2011); Stott, P. A. et al. Nature 432, 610-614 

Queensland, Australia. January, 2011

Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program. 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. www.globalchange.gov.

Surface water will decrease in the U.S. Southwest.

40,000 – 50,000 people died as a result of the record heat wave that scorched Europe in August 2003.

Source: Larsen, J. Earth Policy Institute. 2006. Setting the Record Straight: More than 52,000 Europeans Died from Heat in Summer 2003. http://www.earth-policy.org/index.php?/plan_b_updates/2006/update56

Difference in average temperature (2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004) from 2003,

covering the date range of July 20 - August 20.

It was the hottest summer in Europe in 1500 years.

France, 2003

Station Fire, 2009

One degree of temperature change in the last 100 years has led to four times as many fires in the American West.

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen W, Sanderson A, Tyson P D, Jäger J, Matson P, Moore III B, Oldfield F, Richardson K, Schellnhuber H-J, Turner II B L and Wasson R J. 2004. Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure. 

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen W, Sanderson A, Tyson P D, Jäger J, Matson P, Moore III B, Oldfield F, Richardson K, Schellnhuber H-J, Turner II B L and Wasson R J. 2004. Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure. 

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen W, Sanderson A, Tyson P D, Jäger J, Matson P, Moore III B, Oldfield F, Richardson K, Schellnhuber H-J, Turner II B L and Wasson R J. 2004. Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure. 

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen W, Sanderson A, Tyson P D, Jäger J, Matson P, Moore III B, Oldfield F, Richardson K, Schellnhuber H-J, Turner II B L and Wasson R J. 2004. Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure. 

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen W, Sanderson A, Tyson P D, Jäger J, Matson P, Moore III B, Oldfield F, Richardson K, Schellnhuber H-J, Turner II B L and Wasson R J. 2004. Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure. 

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen W, Sanderson A, Tyson P D, Jäger J, Matson P, Moore III B, Oldfield F, Richardson K, Schellnhuber H-J, Turner II B L and Wasson R J. 2004. Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure. 

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen W, Sanderson A, Tyson P D, Jäger J, Matson P, Moore III B, Oldfield F, Richardson K, Schellnhuber H-J, Turner II B L and Wasson R J. 2004. Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure. 

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen W, Sanderson A, Tyson P D, Jäger J, Matson P, Moore III B, Oldfield F, Richardson K, Schellnhuber H-J, Turner II B L and Wasson R J. 2004. Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure. 

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen W, Sanderson A, Tyson P D, Jäger J, Matson P, Moore III B, Oldfield F, Richardson K, Schellnhuber H-J, Turner II B L and Wasson R J. 2004. Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure. 

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen W, Sanderson A, Tyson P D, Jäger J, Matson P, Moore III B, Oldfield F, Richardson K, Schellnhuber H-J, Turner II B L and Wasson R J. 2004. Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure. 

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen W, Sanderson A, Tyson P D, Jäger J, Matson P, Moore III B, Oldfield F, Richardson K, Schellnhuber H-J, Turner II B L and Wasson R J. 2004. Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure. 

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen W, Sanderson A, Tyson P D, Jäger J, Matson P, Moore III B, Oldfield F, Richardson K, Schellnhuber H-J, Turner II B L and Wasson R J. 2004. Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure. 

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen W, Sanderson A, Tyson P D, Jäger J, Matson P, Moore III B, Oldfield F, Richardson K, Schellnhuber H-J, Turner II B L and Wasson R J. 2004. Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet Under Pressure. 

So what is my diagnosis?

• Severe stress on ecosystems caused by “HIPPO Syndrome” and fueled by a severe fossil fuel addiction.

• Patient is growing weaker and is approaching tipping points in many ecosystems and will substantially collapse, without substantial intervention and treatment.

Specific Diagnosis: HIPPO Syndrome

• Habitat Loss• Invasive Species• Population• Pollution• Over-harvesting

Fewer than 3,000 wild pygmy hippos remain in the wild, mostly due to conversion of forest to farmland.

One gallon of gas contains the energy equivalent of about 600 hours of human manual labor.

Source: McKibben, B. 2010. Eaarth: Making Life on a Tough New Planet .

The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that the world consumes about 3,528,000,000 gallons per day.

Specific Diagnosis: Fossil Fuel Addiction

The average American uses almost three gallons per day or roughly the equivalent of 1,800 hours of manual labor.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Energy Explained. www.eia.doe.gov/energyexplained/ Source: World Resources Institute. 2007. Vital Signs 2007-2008.

My prescription?

Powerful Antidepressants • These challenges present an opportunity:

fighting to save civilization is a great cause.

• A cleaner, greener world will be better, healthier world. It is not a sacrifice!

• We can make products that work with nature, not against it.

• Science can and should lead the way.

• Lifestyle changes, education, and awareness are only part of the solution.

Good news for a change! By roughly 2050 human populations will likely stabilize and begin to fall.

Birth Control Pills

Immunizations and Preventative Medicine

• Create a worldwide network of marine and terrestrial preserves.

• Plant trees on a war footing in the developing world.

• These will strengthen the system’s ability to recover and regenerate, to heal.

Source: Williams, M. 1989. Americans and their forests. Cambridge University Press. Taken from Goudie, A. 2000

2005

Forests will recover when left alone.

Source: NASA Earth Observatory/Image by Jesse Allen and Robert Simmon/Based on data from Michael Lefsky.

Marine environments recover very quickly, if left unmolested.

Sources: Halpern, Benjamin S. 2003. The Impact Of Marine Reserves: Do Reserves Work And Does Reserve Size Matter? Ecological Applications 13; Withgott and Brennan. 2009. The Essential Environment. Pearson.

Reviews of global data show that marine reserves produce major benefits in just the first two years:

• 91% increase in density of organisms

• 192% increase in biomass of organisms

• 31% increase in average size of organisms

• 23% increase in species diversity

Market forces are a powerful tool for improving efficiency and changing consumption patterns.

For-Profit, Brand Name Prescriptions

However, this is true only if we properly account for environmental damage. Moreover, free markets do not work in the “commons.”

Prescription: Truth Serum

When crime, environmental damage, and other social costs are deducted from GDP, the net result is a much better gauge of real productivity and progress. GDP was never intended as a measure of well-being.

Sources: Redefining Progress. 2004. Program on Genuine Progress Accounts for EU Member States. Oakland, CA. Costanza, R. et. Al. 2009. Beyond GDP: The Need for New Measures of Progress. Pardee Papers, 4. http://www.bu.edu/pardee/publications/pardee-paper-004-beyond-gdp/

You generally can’t improve what you don’t measure.

Market Price for a Pack of Cigarettes

Real Cost of a Pack of Cigarettes

$5.51 $18.05

Annual direct costs to the economy attributable to smoking include workplace productivity losses, premature death losses, and direct medical expenditures.

Source: Rumberger J, et al. 2010. Potential costs and benefits of smoking cessation: an overview of the approach to state specific analysis. University of Pennsylvania/American Lung Association.

Prescription: Truth Serum

Market Price for a Gallon of Gas (1994)

Real Cost of a Gallon of Gas (1994)

$1.60 ?

Ant-oil-abuse TM

How much cost to add for the billions spent to preserve access to Persian Gulf Oil?

How much for lives lost on suburban freeways?

How much for oil spills and water pollution?

How much for cancer, asthma, and emphysema from air pollution?

How much for supply dependence on unfriendly states and tax subsidies for oil companies?

How much for the costs of global warming and resulting fires, floods, droughts, and blizzards?

Public Health Clinic • Apollo Mission for clean energy now.

• Eliminate all subsidies and tax breaks for dirty energy production.

• Require green accounting practices.

• Ban or limit the most destructive practices, especially in the oceans, rivers, and atmosphere (e.g. trawling, tuna fishing, CFCs, toxic pollution).

• Shift gradually from income taxes to pollution taxes.

The revolution has begun.

Source: Global Wind Energy Council. 2010. Global Wind Report 2010. http://www.gwec.net/index.php?id=8.

Global Cumulative Installed World Wind Capacity 1996-2010

Join the revolution today!

Organize,

Demand clean energy.

Support policies, groups, and politicians that move us toward a reduce, reuse, and recycle economy.

Spread the word.

Advocate for the environment.

Source: NASA, MODIS

Because a good planet

is hard to find.

Protect it

Resources• Lester Brown. 2010. Plan B 4.0 Mobilizing to Save Civilization.

http://www.earth-policy.org/index.php?/books/pb4/pb4_table_of_contents

• The U.N. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. http://www.maweb.org/en/index.aspx

• International Panel on Climate Change, 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/spm.html

• United States Federal Global Change Research Program. http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts

• The World Wildlife Fund. Living Planet Report, 2010. http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/living_planet_report/

• Beyond GDP Initiative. European Commission. http://www.beyond-gdp.eu/news.html

Get involved

• 350.ORG www.350.org

• Natural Resources Defense Council www.nrdc.org

• World Wildlife Fund http://www.worldwildlife.org/

• The Sierra Club www.sierraclub.org

• Friends of the Earth http://www.foei.org/