Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Post-Traditional Students: A Review of the Data

Carol AslanianSenior Vice President,

Aslanian Market Research

For-Profit Sector Share: 13% (BMO Cap.)

21.0M2012

Overall Higher Education Enrollment(Undergraduate, Graduate, 1st Profess.; fall unduplicated headcount)

(NCES – Fall Enrollment)

• Growth trend flattened beginning 2011• Enrollments expected to be flat through 2013

Adult students (25+) make up about 50% of all

higher education enrollments.

Noncredit: 20m+

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014

23.9M2016

…and what’s to come?????

(NCES – Fall Enrollment)

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014

50% of college students finish in four years…

…50% do not (DOE)

US Higher Ed Enrollment Trends

Growth by Age Group2010 2021

18 - 24 years: 10%

25 - 34 years: 20%

35+ years: 25%

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 5Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014

Percent Age 25+Undergraduate 31%

Graduate 81%Total 42%

Actual Total Adult Enrollment: About 50%12-month unduplicated headcount is a better indicator of total adult learner traffic given the nature of adult enrollment.

Higher Education Enrollments

Source: NCES – Fall Enrollment

6Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014

For-Profit Postsecondary Sector Enrollment and Market Share

2013 2.58m students (13% share of all postsecondary enrollments)

2016 2.1m** students (9.4% share of all postsecondary enrollments) (projection)

**Market expected to hit bottom in 2013 (9.1%)**

Sources: NCES* and BMO Capital**Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012

(degree-granting and non degree-granting institutions)

Feeder High School Graduates

High School Graduation Trends (National)

WiCHE 9

High School Graduation Trends (Regional)

Public/Private by Region: 1996-2028

WiCHE 10

High School Graduates are Changing: Implications for Higher Education?

• In 2020+ minority students will outnumber white students

on college campuses

• One-third of high school graduates will be of Hispanic backgrounds

(more in California?)

• Will seek convenience and flexibility in higher education

• Most will have enrolled in online courses in high school

What does this mean for your Enrollments?• Declining high school graduate pool will lead to more disruption to

the traditional higher education market

• Declining high school graduate pool will lead to more competitive and crowded traditional higher education market

• Colleges must identify and utilize innovative and adaptive methods to attract post-traditional students in order to succeed in current/future environment

Who Are College Students Today?

The Changing Profile of a College Student

• 20% of all undergraduates today are “traditional” students – 18-24– living on campus– attend full-time

• 80% of all undergraduates today are “post-traditional” – working– live off-campus– financially independent– often first-generation

• Note: Approximately 25% of adult students (25+) are seeking “Traditional Study”: day classes, traditional semesters, classes twice per week, etc…)

14© Aslanian Market ResearchCopyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014

The Future? Tech-Savvy Kids

Open a web browser

Make a mobile phone call

Play a basic computer game

Turn a computer on/off

Operate a computer mouse

Children ages 2-3 whose mothers say they can…

Market Trends in Online Education

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2016 (est)

2.3m 3.5m4.6m

9.9m10.8m*

780k 1.2m 1.8m 2.1m3.3m 3.4m*

Took at Least 1 Online Course Took All Courses Online* 10.8m is based on 10% annual compounded growth (Sloan C estimates 10% growth between 2009-2010)

Sources: Eduventures Online Higher Education Market Update 2011; BMO Capital Markets, Education and Training 2012; Babson Survey Research Group, Going the Distance: Online Education in the United States, 2011

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 16

Future of Online Enrollments

2012 15% of all enrollments

2016 20% of all enrollments (est.)

Growth rate of online enrollment (while slowing)

is 3-4 times the rate of

classroom enrollment

Adults as Students

2012-2013

Adult Students: Snapshot

• Aslanian Market Research studies in 20 locations

nationwide

• Recent undergraduate and graduate students: 25+ years

General Personal Characteristics

• Majority are female

• Getting younger

• Majority are non-minority

• More returning to undergrad and grad school with advanced credentials

• Majority are employed and juggle home, work and study

• Most often finance their own study

• Seek degrees, but also certificates, licenses and courses

• Study in career fields• Most often: Business, STEM, Social Sciences and,

Health Professions

• Prefer shorter/fast-track courses: 10-weeks or less

General Learning Patterns

• Full-time and part time (degree seekers) (53% vs. 47%)

• Evening (55%) AND day (45%) classroom study

• Prefer multiple learning options – class/hybrid/online

General Learning Patterns (cont.)

Personal Characteristics at time of enrollment

32%-Bachelor’s plus

Education-Level: Undergraduate

1% 1% High school diploma / GED

One or two years of college, but no Associate’s degree

Associate’s degree

Three or four years of college, but no Bachelor’s degree

Bachelor’s degree

Some graduate courses but no Master’s degree

Master’s degree

Some graduate courses beyond a Master’s degree, but no Doctorate

Doctorate

Education-Level: Graduate

4% 3%Bachelor’s degree

Some graduate courses but no Master’s degree

Master’s degree

Some graduate courses beyond a Master’s degree, but no Doctorate

Doctorate32%-Master’s plus

Age at Time of Study

Undergraduate Graduate

25-29 24 27

30-39 26 26

40-49 20 17

50-59 17 18

60 and older 7 5

Median 32 Years 33 Years

Gender

Female 71% 67%

Male 28 32

Ethnicity

Undergraduate GraduateWhite 77% 79%

African-American 7 5

Asian or Pacific Islander

Hispanic 5 3

Native American 1 1

Other 2 1

Employment Status at Time of Study

Employed full time 56% 69%

Employed part time 19 16

Not employed 19 13

Retired 4 2

Income at Time of Study Undergraduate Graduate

Under $25,000 15% 10%$25,000 - $39,999 16 11$40,000 - $54,999 15 11$55,000 - $69,999 13 13$70,000 - $84,999 11 12$85,000 - $99,999 9 12$100,000 - $114,999 8 9$115,000 - $129,000 4 6$130,000 - $149,000 3 5More than $150,000 5 12Median income $55,000 $70,000

How do they pay for courses?

Course Payment Method

Undergraduate GraduatePersonal funds 61% 65%Student loans 38 34Pell Grants or other federal/state/local government grants and scholarships

Tuition reimbursement 17 28Personal loans 8 10Private scholarships 7 9Assistantships/tuition waivers 4 10Military/Veterans' benefits 2 2Other 3 2

What credentials do they seek?

Credential - Undergraduate

Enrolled in a degree program32%

Courses for transfer to a Bachelor’s degree program

Certificate, license, or diploma in a professional

area 27%

Individual Courses 20%

Degree Level Pursued- Undergraduate

Associate16%

Bachelor’s84%

Credential - Graduate

Enrolled in a degree program

Courses for transfer to a Bachelor’s degree program

Certificate, license, or diploma in a professional

area 24%

Degree Level Pursued- Graduate

Master’s81%

Doctorate19%

Full-time or part-time study?

Full-Time/Part-time Study

Full-time 52%

Part-time 48%

Undergraduate

Full-time45%Part-time

Graduate

Do they prefer day, evening, or weekend study if taking a classroom course?

Time of Day For Classroom Courses - Preferred

5% 5%2%

17%12%

Are they attracted to hybrid and online study?

Actual/Preferred Format of Study: Undergraduate

Classroom Hybrid Online Only

44%43% 43%

Actual* Preferred

* Respondents may give more than one response

Actual/Preferred Format of Study: Graduate

Classroom Hybrid Online Only

40%45%

Actual* Preferred

* Respondents may give more than one response

Do they prefer accelerated courses?

Actual/Preferred Number of Weeks for a Course: Undergraduate

15 weeks or more14 weeks13 weeks12 weeks11 weeks10 weeks

9 weeks8 weeks7 weeks6 weeks5 weeks4 weeks3 weeks2 weeks1 week

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Preferred Actual

Median Preferred: 10 Weeks

Actual/Preferred Number of Weeks for a Course: Graduate

15 weeks or more14 weeks13 weeks12 weeks11 weeks10 weeks

9 weeks8 weeks7 weeks6 weeks5 weeks4 weeks3 weeks2 weeks1 week

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Preferred Actual

Median Preferred: 10 Weeks

What subjects do they most often study?

Subject Field of Study (in order of market demand)

Undergrad DegreesBusinessSTEMSocial SciencesHealth ProfessionsHumanities/Liberal ArtsEducation

Graduate DegreesBusinessEducationHealth ProfessionsSocial SciencesSTEMHumanities/Liberal Arts

How do they become aware of your college during their search?

Methods of Raising Awareness of Colleges: Undergraduate

Internet Search EnginesCollege Search Sites

Mail to HomeEmails

Television AdsAds on Websites

Radio AdsNewspaper Ads

BillboardsBus/Train Ads

(On a scale of 5)

3.23.23.02.82.82.62.52.42.32.1

Methods of Raising Awareness of Colleges: Graduate

Internet Search EnginesCollege Search Sites

Mail to HomeEmails

Television AdsAds on Websites

Radio AdsNewspaper Ads

BillboardsBus/Train Ads

(On a scale of 5)

3.13.12.92.72.52.52.32.32.22.1

Podcasts

Social Media Fan Pages

Faculty/student Chats

Online Open House

GraduateUndergraduate

Likely to Use Online Outreach (5-point scale)

What Social Media do Adults Use?

MySpace

Twitter

Facebook

GraduateUndergraduate

30%make NO direct contact with college until they

submit their application.

Primary Sources of Information About the Preferred College

Current or Former StudentsThe College’s Website

Friend, Family, Co-workersRadio Ads

Newspaper AdsTelevision Ads

Direct MailOther

29%231910 5 5 4 5

IssuesAnd Opportunities

• Keeping up with market demand - continuous market research

• Tracking and follow-up of inquiries and applicants

• Expanding demand for online format

• Resistance among some academics for online

Issues

• Importance of local/ground presence for online

delivery

• Education matched to today’s jobs

• Cost and reputation matter most

• Rising importance of “brand”

Issues

• Increasing acquisition costs/limited marketing

budgets

• Electronic marketing and recruitment

Issues

• Younger “adult” students

• Multiple formats are essential: classroom/hybrid/online

• Customer Service/24-7 Operations

• Time to completion

Issues

Opportunities

• Stackable certificates/badges

• Declining share of for-profit institutions

• Adult student market growth

• 24/7 learning options

Opportunities

• Non-degree credentials

• Hybrid/blended and online learning

• Younger students online

• Rising number of “traditional” students acting like adults

• Low residence programs

• Growth of non-credit career/professional development market

• Continuous change in the economy/job market

Opportunities

• Competitive knowledge-based global economy requires workforce to participate in and complete programs

• Age no longer predicts learning patterns

• International adult student demand for online education

Opportunities

Thank you!

Evaluation code: aslaniankeynote

Questions?

Aslanian Market Researchcaslanian@educationdynamics.comOffice 201.377.3321Mobile 917.216.1969Fax 201.653.2970www.educationdynamics.comadultstudents.educationdynamics.com

Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

nces fall

traditional

higher education

undergraduates

market demand

graduate courses

classroom

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