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Post-Traditional Students: A Review of the Data 2014 CALEM, All Rights Reserved. 1 Carol Aslanian Senior Vice President, Aslanian Market Research
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Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Aug 19, 2014

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CALEM 2014 Presentation: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data, Carol Aslanian, Aslanian Market Research/EducationDynamics. During this presentation, new data will be represented on the demands and preferences of adult and other "post-traditional" undergraduate and graduate students. Among he topics covered in the presentation are: the degrees and certificates in highest demand, the formats most desired, the services expected, the marketing channels they most frequently consult and what they look like demographically.
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Page 1: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Post-Traditional Students: A Review of the Data

2014 CALEM, All Rights Reserved.1

Carol AslanianSenior Vice President,

Aslanian Market Research

Page 2: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

2006

17.8M

2008

19.1M

For-Profit Sector Share: 13% (BMO Cap.)

2010

21.0M2012

20.2M

Overall Higher Education Enrollment(Undergraduate, Graduate, 1st Profess.; fall unduplicated headcount)

2

(NCES – Fall Enrollment)

2013

19.9M

• Growth trend flattened beginning 2011• Enrollments expected to be flat through 2013

Adult students (25+) make up about 50% of all

higher education enrollments.

Noncredit: 20m+

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014

Page 3: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

2020

23.9M2016

22.5M

…and what’s to come?????

3

(NCES – Fall Enrollment)

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014

??

Page 4: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

2014 CALEM, All Rights Reserved.

4

50% of college students finish in four years…

…50% do not (DOE)

Page 5: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

US Higher Ed Enrollment Trends

Growth by Age Group2010 2021

18 - 24 years: 10%

25 - 34 years: 20%

35+ years: 25%

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 5Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014

Page 6: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Percent Age 25+Undergraduate 31%

Graduate 81%Total 42%

Actual Total Adult Enrollment: About 50%12-month unduplicated headcount is a better indicator of total adult learner traffic given the nature of adult enrollment.

Higher Education Enrollments

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014

Source: NCES – Fall Enrollment

6Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014

Page 7: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

For-Profit Postsecondary Sector Enrollment and Market Share

2013 2.58m students (13% share of all postsecondary enrollments)

2016 2.1m** students (9.4% share of all postsecondary enrollments) (projection)

**Market expected to hit bottom in 2013 (9.1%)**

Sources: NCES* and BMO Capital**Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2012

(degree-granting and non degree-granting institutions)

7Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014

Page 8: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Feeder High School Graduates

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High School Graduation Trends (National)

WiCHE 9

Page 10: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

High School Graduation Trends (Regional)

Public/Private by Region: 1996-2028

WiCHE 10

Page 11: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

High School Graduates are Changing: Implications for Higher Education?

• In 2020+ minority students will outnumber white students

on college campuses

• One-third of high school graduates will be of Hispanic backgrounds

(more in California?)

• Will seek convenience and flexibility in higher education

• Most will have enrolled in online courses in high school

© Aslanian Market Research 11Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014

Page 12: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

What does this mean for your Enrollments?• Declining high school graduate pool will lead to more disruption to

the traditional higher education market

• Declining high school graduate pool will lead to more competitive and crowded traditional higher education market

• Colleges must identify and utilize innovative and adaptive methods to attract post-traditional students in order to succeed in current/future environment

© Aslanian Market Research 12Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014

Page 13: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Who Are College Students Today?

or…

13Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014

Page 14: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

The Changing Profile of a College Student

• 20% of all undergraduates today are “traditional” students – 18-24– living on campus– attend full-time

• 80% of all undergraduates today are “post-traditional” – working– live off-campus– financially independent– often first-generation

• Note: Approximately 25% of adult students (25+) are seeking “Traditional Study”: day classes, traditional semesters, classes twice per week, etc…)

14© Aslanian Market ResearchCopyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014

Page 15: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

The Future? Tech-Savvy Kids

Open a web browser

Make a mobile phone call

Play a basic computer game

Turn a computer on/off

Operate a computer mouse

25%

28%

58%

63%

69%

Children ages 2-3 whose mothers say they can…

15Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014

Page 16: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Market Trends in Online Education

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2016 (est)

2.3m 3.5m4.6m

6.1m

9.9m10.8m*

780k 1.2m 1.8m 2.1m3.3m 3.4m*

Took at Least 1 Online Course Took All Courses Online* 10.8m is based on 10% annual compounded growth (Sloan C estimates 10% growth between 2009-2010)

Sources: Eduventures Online Higher Education Market Update 2011; BMO Capital Markets, Education and Training 2012; Babson Survey Research Group, Going the Distance: Online Education in the United States, 2011

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 16

Page 17: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Future of Online Enrollments

2012 15% of all enrollments

2016 20% of all enrollments (est.)

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 17

Page 18: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

2014 CALEM, All Rights Reserved.

18

Growth rate of online enrollment (while slowing)

is 3-4 times the rate of

classroom enrollment

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Adults as Students

2012-2013

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Adult Students: Snapshot

• Aslanian Market Research studies in 20 locations

nationwide

• Recent undergraduate and graduate students: 25+ years

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 20

Page 21: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

General Personal Characteristics

• Majority are female

• Getting younger

• Majority are non-minority

• More returning to undergrad and grad school with advanced credentials

• Majority are employed and juggle home, work and study

• Most often finance their own study

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 21

Page 22: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

• Seek degrees, but also certificates, licenses and courses

• Study in career fields• Most often: Business, STEM, Social Sciences and,

Health Professions

• Prefer shorter/fast-track courses: 10-weeks or less

General Learning Patterns

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 22

Page 23: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

• Full-time and part time (degree seekers) (53% vs. 47%)

• Evening (55%) AND day (45%) classroom study

• Prefer multiple learning options – class/hybrid/online

General Learning Patterns (cont.)

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 23

Page 24: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Personal Characteristics at time of enrollment

Page 25: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

32%-Bachelor’s plus

Education-Level: Undergraduate

20%

20%

18%

9%

21%

4%5%

1% 1% High school diploma / GED

One or two years of college, but no Associate’s degree

Associate’s degree

Three or four years of college, but no Bachelor’s degree

Bachelor’s degree

Some graduate courses but no Master’s degree

Master’s degree

Some graduate courses beyond a Master’s degree, but no Doctorate

Doctorate

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 25

Page 26: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Education-Level: Graduate

57%

11%

25%

4% 3%Bachelor’s degree

Some graduate courses but no Master’s degree

Master’s degree

Some graduate courses beyond a Master’s degree, but no Doctorate

Doctorate32%-Master’s plus

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 26

Page 27: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Age at Time of Study

Undergraduate Graduate

25-29 24 27

30-39 26 26

40-49 20 17

50-59 17 18

60 and older 7 5

Median 32 Years 33 Years

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 27

Page 28: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Gender

Undergraduate Graduate

Female 71% 67%

Male 28 32

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 28

Page 29: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Ethnicity

Undergraduate GraduateWhite 77% 79%

African-American 7 5

Asian or Pacific Islander

6 9

Hispanic 5 3

Native American 1 1

Other 2 1

29

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Employment Status at Time of Study

Undergraduate Graduate

Employed full time 56% 69%

Employed part time 19 16

Not employed 19 13

Retired 4 2

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 30

Page 31: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Income at Time of Study Undergraduate Graduate

Under $25,000 15% 10%$25,000 - $39,999 16 11$40,000 - $54,999 15 11$55,000 - $69,999 13 13$70,000 - $84,999 11 12$85,000 - $99,999 9 12$100,000 - $114,999 8 9$115,000 - $129,000 4 6$130,000 - $149,000 3 5More than $150,000 5 12Median income $55,000 $70,000

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201431

Page 32: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

How do they pay for courses?

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Course Payment Method

Undergraduate GraduatePersonal funds 61% 65%Student loans 38 34Pell Grants or other federal/state/local government grants and scholarships

28 14

Tuition reimbursement 17 28Personal loans 8 10Private scholarships 7 9Assistantships/tuition waivers 4 10Military/Veterans' benefits 2 2Other 3 2

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201433

Page 34: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

What credentials do they seek?

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Credential - Undergraduate

Enrolled in a degree program32%

Courses for transfer to a Bachelor’s degree program

21%

Certificate, license, or diploma in a professional

area 27%

Individual Courses 20%

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201435

Page 36: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Degree Level Pursued- Undergraduate

Associate16%

Bachelor’s84%

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201436

Page 37: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Credential - Graduate

Enrolled in a degree program

59%

Courses for transfer to a Bachelor’s degree program

17%

Certificate, license, or diploma in a professional

area 24%

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201437

Page 38: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Degree Level Pursued- Graduate

Master’s81%

Doctorate19%

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201438

Page 39: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Full-time or part-time study?

Page 40: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Full-Time/Part-time Study

Full-time 52%

Part-time 48%

Undergraduate

Full-time45%Part-time

55%

Graduate

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201440

Page 41: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Do they prefer day, evening, or weekend study if taking a classroom course?

Page 42: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Time of Day For Classroom Courses - Preferred

3%

27%

16%

44%

5% 5%2%

17%12%

56%

8%5%

Undergraduate Graduate

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201442

Page 43: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Are they attracted to hybrid and online study?

Page 44: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Actual/Preferred Format of Study: Undergraduate

Classroom Hybrid Online Only

76%

33%

44%43% 43%

26%

Actual* Preferred

* Respondents may give more than one response

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201444

Page 45: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Actual/Preferred Format of Study: Graduate

Classroom Hybrid Online Only

72%

32%

40%45%

33%

22%

Actual* Preferred

* Respondents may give more than one response

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 201445

Page 46: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Do they prefer accelerated courses?

Page 47: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Actual/Preferred Number of Weeks for a Course: Undergraduate

15 weeks or more14 weeks13 weeks12 weeks11 weeks10 weeks

9 weeks8 weeks7 weeks6 weeks5 weeks4 weeks3 weeks2 weeks1 week

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Preferred Actual

Median Preferred: 10 Weeks

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 47

Page 48: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Actual/Preferred Number of Weeks for a Course: Graduate

15 weeks or more14 weeks13 weeks12 weeks11 weeks10 weeks

9 weeks8 weeks7 weeks6 weeks5 weeks4 weeks3 weeks2 weeks1 week

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Preferred Actual

Median Preferred: 10 Weeks

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 48

Page 49: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

What subjects do they most often study?

Page 50: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Subject Field of Study (in order of market demand)

Undergrad DegreesBusinessSTEMSocial SciencesHealth ProfessionsHumanities/Liberal ArtsEducation

Graduate DegreesBusinessEducationHealth ProfessionsSocial SciencesSTEMHumanities/Liberal Arts

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 50

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How do they become aware of your college during their search?

Page 52: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Methods of Raising Awareness of Colleges: Undergraduate

Internet Search EnginesCollege Search Sites

Mail to HomeEmails

Television AdsAds on Websites

Radio AdsNewspaper Ads

BillboardsBus/Train Ads

(On a scale of 5)

3.23.23.02.82.82.62.52.42.32.1

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 52

Page 53: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Methods of Raising Awareness of Colleges: Graduate

Internet Search EnginesCollege Search Sites

Mail to HomeEmails

Television AdsAds on Websites

Radio AdsNewspaper Ads

BillboardsBus/Train Ads

(On a scale of 5)

3.13.12.92.72.52.52.32.32.22.1

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 53

Page 54: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Podcasts

Blogs

Social Media Fan Pages

Faculty/student Chats

Online Open House

1.5

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.9

2.1

GraduateUndergraduate

Likely to Use Online Outreach (5-point scale)

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 54

Page 55: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

What Social Media do Adults Use?

None

Other

MySpace

Twitter

LinkedIn

Facebook

15%

2%

8%

26%

38%

79%

15%

4%

5%

25%

50%

78%

GraduateUndergraduate

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 55

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2014 CALEM, All Rights Reserved.

56

30%make NO direct contact with college until they

submit their application.

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Primary Sources of Information About the Preferred College

Current or Former StudentsThe College’s Website

Friend, Family, Co-workersRadio Ads

Newspaper AdsTelevision Ads

Direct MailOther

29%231910 5 5 4 5

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 57

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IssuesAnd Opportunities

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• Keeping up with market demand - continuous market research

• Tracking and follow-up of inquiries and applicants

• Expanding demand for online format

• Resistance among some academics for online

Issues

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 59

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• Importance of local/ground presence for online

delivery

• Education matched to today’s jobs

• Cost and reputation matter most

• Rising importance of “brand”

Issues

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 60

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• Increasing acquisition costs/limited marketing

budgets

• Electronic marketing and recruitment

Issues

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 61

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• Younger “adult” students

• Multiple formats are essential: classroom/hybrid/online

• Customer Service/24-7 Operations

• Time to completion

Issues

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 62

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Opportunities

• Stackable certificates/badges

• Declining share of for-profit institutions

• Adult student market growth

• 24/7 learning options

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 63

Page 64: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Opportunities

• Non-degree credentials

• Hybrid/blended and online learning

• Younger students online

• Rising number of “traditional” students acting like adults

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 64

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• Low residence programs

• Growth of non-credit career/professional development market

• Continuous change in the economy/job market

Opportunities

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 65

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• Competitive knowledge-based global economy requires workforce to participate in and complete programs

• Age no longer predicts learning patterns

• International adult student demand for online education

Opportunities

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014 66

Page 67: Post Traditional Studetns: A Review of the Data

Thank you!

Evaluation code: aslaniankeynote

67

Questions?

Aslanian Market [email protected]   201.377.3321Mobile 917.216.1969Fax  201.653.2970www.educationdynamics.comadultstudents.educationdynamics.com

Copyright: Aslanian Market Research 2014