'Peak Oil and Transition Towns’ Falmouth. 11 th May 2007. Rob Hopkins Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Plymouth University.

'Peak Oil and Transition 'Peak Oil and Transition Towns’Towns’Falmouth. 11Falmouth. 11thth May 2007. May 2007.

Rob HopkinsRob HopkinsTransition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org *

Plymouth University.Plymouth University.

The Petroleum Interval The Petroleum Interval

Peak Oil.Peak Oil.

Discovery peaked 40 years agoDiscovery peaked 40 years ago

Past discovery by ExxonMobil

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Gb

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Past

Future

Production

Past afterExxon-Mobil3yr moving average

US-48 Oil Discovery Peaked in US-48 Oil Discovery Peaked in 1930, Production in 19701930, Production in 1970

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Dis

cove

ry G

b

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Pro

du

ctio

n k

b/d

Peak to Peak - 40 years

Peak Discovery

The North SeaThe North Sea

0

2

4

6

8

10

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Dis

cove

ry G

b

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Pro

du

ctio

n k

b/d

Peak to Peak - 27 years

RussiaRussia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Dis

cove

ry G

b

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Pro

du

ctio

n k

b/d

Peak to Peak ~ 40 yearsFall of Soviets

0

10

20

30

40

50

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Pro

duc

tion

, Gb

oe/a

Non-con Gas

Gas

NGLs

Polar Oil

Deep Water

Heavy

Regular

Production peaks follow discovery.Production peaks follow discovery. ((You have to find it before you can produce it).You have to find it before you can produce it).

Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil

Exaggerated OPEC Oil Reserves…Exaggerated OPEC Oil Reserves…

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

World Production World Production Stalls.Stalls.

No Spare Saudi Capacity…No Spare Saudi Capacity…

Source: US EIA International Petroleum Monthly Table 1.1, IEA Oil Market Report Table 3, Joint Oil Data Initiative, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, Table 17 (or

similar) on OPEC Supply, Oil and Gas Journal, and OPEC for quotas.

Gas prices…Gas prices…

The Widening GapThe Widening Gap

Source: DTI

Peak Gas?Peak Gas?

Source:UK Energy Review 2006

Exxon MobilExxon Mobil

4 New Saudi Arabias!

Who Said This?Who Said This?

““A serious demand/supply discontinuity A serious demand/supply discontinuity could lead to worldwide economic could lead to worldwide economic chaos”.chaos”.

US Department of Energy Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale US Department of Energy Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves.Reserves.

We’re not good at recognising distant We’re not good at recognising distant threats. Even if their probability is threats. Even if their probability is 100%, society ignoring this is like 100%, society ignoring this is like people in Pompeii ignoring Vesuvius”.people in Pompeii ignoring Vesuvius”.

James Schlessinger. Former US Energy Secretary and Director of James Schlessinger. Former US Energy Secretary and Director of the CIA. the CIA.

When?When?

The Hirsch ReportThe Hirsch Report

““......the peaking of world oil production presents the peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an unprecedented the US and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and without volatility will increase dramatically, and without timely mitigation, the economic, social and timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated they must be initiated more than a decademore than a decade in in advance of peakingadvance of peaking” (emphasis added) ” (emphasis added)

(Hirsch 2005).(Hirsch 2005).

Initial Symptoms of Peak Oil Initial Symptoms of Peak Oil AwarenessAwareness (Post Petroleum Stress (Post Petroleum Stress Disorder)Disorder)

Common Symptoms Include;•Clammy Palms / Nausea

•Mild Palpitations

•A Sense of Bewilderment and Unreality

•An Irrational Grasping at Unfeasible Solutions

•Fear

•Outbreaks of Nihilism / Survivalism.

•Exuberant Optimism.

•“I Always Told You So” Syndrome.

Indu

stria

l As

cent

(Mod

erni

sm)

Indu

stria

l As

cent

(Mod

erni

sm)

Energy & Resource UseEnergy & Resource Use Population Pollution Pollution

ClimaxClimax(post-modern (post-modern

cultural chaos)cultural chaos)

ClimaxClimax(post-modern (post-modern

cultural chaos)cultural chaos)

Techno-Fantasy

Green-Tech StabilityGreen-Tech StabilityGreen-Tech StabilityGreen-Tech Stability

Earth stewardship

Atlantis

Great Grand Great Grand ChildrenChildren

AgricultureAgriculture10.000yrs BP10.000yrs BP

Industrial Industrial RevolutionRevolution

Baby BoomBaby Boom Old GrowthOld GrowthForest Forest

Pre-industrial sustainable culture

Pre-industrial sustainable culture

Historical Time Future Time

Creative Descent

Creative Descent

( (Permaculture)

Creative Descent

Creative Descent

( (Permaculture)

Visioning a World Beyond Oil.Visioning a World Beyond Oil.

What would a post What would a post carbon world look like?carbon world look like?

1930’s Visions of America’s Future

We need to address our collective inability to vision the future we actually want….

One Possible vision…One Possible vision…

Convergence of ChallengesConvergence of Challenges

Peak OilPeak Oil Climate ChangeClimate Change Our dependence Our dependence

on Chinaon China Our crumbling Our crumbling

social capitalsocial capital

Vehicle Transport Vehicle Transport – are – are we asking the right questions?we asking the right questions?

Running the UK’s cars, buses and lorries on biodiesel needs 25.9 million hectares of arable land.

UK has 5.7 million hectares of arable land.

800 million malnourished people in the world. From: Monbiot, G. (2006) Heat. How to Stop the Planet Burning. Penguin.

Hydrogen?Hydrogen?

Running the UK’s cars on hydrogen Running the UK’s cars on hydrogen would necessitate;would necessitate;

67 Sizewell B nuclear power stations67 Sizewell B nuclear power stations a solar array covering every inch of a solar array covering every inch of

Norfolk and Derbyshire combinedNorfolk and Derbyshire combined or a wind farm bigger than the entire or a wind farm bigger than the entire

southwest region of England.southwest region of England.

From “The Last Oil Shock by David StrahanFrom “The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan

RelocalisationRelocalisation

“…“…localisation localisation stands, at best, at stands, at best, at the limits of the limits of practical possibility, practical possibility, but it has the but it has the decisive argument decisive argument in its favour that in its favour that there will be no there will be no alternative”alternative”

David FlemingDavid Fleming

UK Food Self Reliance.UK Food Self Reliance.

"National food security is neither necessary nor is it desirable."

DEFRA 2003.

Food - Urban Gardens in Food - Urban Gardens in CubaCubaDowntown HavanaDowntown Havana

The Modernized Agrarian - The Modernized Agrarian - CubaCuba

Oxen Replaced TractorsOxen Replaced Tractors

Rooftop Gardening in Rooftop Gardening in HavanaHavana

Falmouth in 2012?Falmouth in 2012?

Edible roofsEdible roofs

Adding the Trees…Adding the Trees…

Building - The Challenge of Building - The Challenge of Peak Oil demands…Peak Oil demands…

Buildings designed to use Buildings designed to use low/zero energy for space low/zero energy for space heatingheating

Increased use of local Increased use of local materialsmaterials

New Local Economies New Local Economies An increasing resource base An increasing resource base

of local renewable materials of local renewable materials Integration of renewable Integration of renewable

energyenergy The Great ReskillingThe Great Reskilling

Creating New Local EconomiesCreating New Local Economies

Local TimberLocal Timber New (?!) New (?!)

construction construction techniques to use techniques to use the timber the timber availableavailable

Helps with Helps with management of management of local woodlandslocal woodlands

Ben Law’s house, Sussex

Creating New Local EconomiesCreating New Local Economies

Cordwood Building

Using round timber in an innovative and promising way

Cordwood and Cob amphitheatreKinsale, Co. Cork

Creating New Local EconomiesCreating New Local Economies

Hemp and Lime•Can be used to build whole houses

•Very high insulation levels

•Suffolk Housing Society

Hemp also makes a beautiful insulating plaster…

The Great ReskillingThe Great Reskilling

Natural Retrofits…?Natural Retrofits…?

The Story of the Kinsale The Story of the Kinsale Energy Descent Action PlanEnergy Descent Action Plan

Available to download at

www.transitionculture.org

Kinsale Further Kinsale Further Education College.Education College.

Step 1. Awareness RaisingStep 1. Awareness Raising

Talks, End of Suburbia Talks, End of Suburbia screenings… screenings…

Step 2. Open Space Step 2. Open Space Community Think TankCommunity Think Tank

Step 3. Engaging Existing Step 3. Engaging Existing Practioners.Practioners.

Step 4. Visioning and Step 4. Visioning and

Backcasting.Backcasting.

Action Plan – layout.Action Plan – layout.

•Title (food, waste, etc…)

•The Present

•The Vision

•Practical Steps 2005 – 2021

•Resources

Some Suggestions from Some Suggestions from the Kinsale EDAP…the Kinsale EDAP…

A Natural Health PartnershipA Natural Health Partnership Local economyLocal economy Research on local building Research on local building

materialsmaterials Permaculture courses in Permaculture courses in

schoolsschools Slow Food TownSlow Food Town Looking beyond TourismLooking beyond Tourism Energy IndependenceEnergy Independence

December ‘05 in Kinsale…December ‘05 in Kinsale…

Notice of Motion

This council supports the efforts of the not-for-profit company “Transition Design” in its initiative to act as “Process Leaders” in

Kinsale’s transition to a lower energy future and in developing the concept of a “Transition Town” i.e. a town making the transition from fossil-fuel dependency to a state of energy independence.

Lessons From KinsaleLessons From Kinsale

Avoid “Them and Us”. Avoid “Them and Us”. Create a Sense That Create a Sense That

Something is Happening.Something is Happening. Create a Vision of an Create a Vision of an

Abundant Future.Abundant Future.

Transition Transition Town Town

TotnesTotnes

The Next Step…

Awareness Raising…Awareness Raising…Sept ’05 – Sept ‘06Sept ’05 – Sept ‘06

The Official Unleashing…The Official Unleashing…September ‘06September ‘06

“Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”.

Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.

Open Space Days.Open Space Days.Food, Energy, Housing, Psychology of Food, Energy, Housing, Psychology of

Change, Economics, Arts.Change, Economics, Arts.

Oral History Oral History Interviews..Interviews..

Learning from Totnes Past.Learning from Totnes Past.1930’s…1930’s…

© Totnes Image Bank

George Heath.George Heath.A Powerdown Pioneer.A Powerdown Pioneer.

© Totnes Image Bank

© Totnes Image Bank

Visiting Speakers…Visiting Speakers…Sept – Dec ’06.Sept – Dec ’06.

Bob Flowerdew David Fleming

Helena Norberg-HodgeRichard Heinberg

Working with Working with Business.Business.

December ’06. Oil Vulnerability Auditing Workshop with Simon Snowden of Liverpool University

A pilot project in Totnes with three local businesses.

Skilling Up for Skilling Up for Powerdown.Powerdown.A 10 Week Evening Class.A 10 Week Evening Class.

Covers;

Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning…

Transition Town TotnesTransition Town TotnesSubgroups….Subgroups….

Up and RunningUp and RunningHeart and Soul – the psychology Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health / of change / Medicine and Health / Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local GovernmentLiaison with Local Government

In formation;In formation;Education, Housing.Education, Housing.

Outcomes so Far…Outcomes so Far…(after 7 months).(after 7 months).

Solar Water Heater Solar Water Heater Challenge.Challenge.

Local Food Directory Local Food Directory The Totnes Renewable The Totnes Renewable

Energy Supply Company Energy Supply Company (TRESCO)(TRESCO)

World Café afternoon for World Café afternoon for Council representativesCouncil representatives

‘‘Seedy Sunday’Seedy Sunday’ Workshop with estate Workshop with estate

landowners.landowners. Lending Library.Lending Library.

The Totnes Pound.The Totnes Pound.

““Totnes, the Nut Tree Totnes, the Nut Tree

Capital of Britain”.Capital of Britain”.

What Adds ResilienceWhat Adds ResilienceLocal CompostingLocal Composting

Productive Tree PlantingsProductive Tree Plantings

Local Building MaterialsLocal Building Materials

Local Investment Local Investment MechanismsMechanisms

Local CurrenciesLocal Currencies

What Doesn’tWhat Doesn’tCentralised RecyclingCentralised Recycling

Ornamental Tree Ornamental Tree PlantingsPlantings

Imported ‘green Imported ‘green building’ materialsbuilding’ materials

Carbon OffsettingCarbon Offsetting

Ethical InvestmentEthical Investment

Transition Towns…Transition Towns…an idea goes viral…an idea goes viral…

In discussionIn discussion • Barnet Barnet • Bovey Tracey Bovey Tracey • Brighton Brighton • Chalford Chalford • Edinburgh Edinburgh • Haringey Haringey • Leamington Spa Leamington Spa • Leeds Leeds • Liverpool Liverpool • London London • Monmouth Monmouth • North North PembrokeshirePembrokeshire• NottinghamNottingham• ShapwickShapwick

ExistingExisting•Bristol Bristol •Brixton Brixton •Falmouth Falmouth •Forest Row Forest Row •Glastonbury Glastonbury •Ivybridge Ivybridge •Kinsale Kinsale •Lewes Lewes •Mayfield Mayfield •MoretonhamMoretonhampstead pstead •Ottery St Ottery St Mary Mary •Penwith Penwith •Stroud Stroud •TotnesTotnes

““The time is right to look at what The time is right to look at what it would mean for the UK over the it would mean for the UK over the period of 15 to 20 years to create period of 15 to 20 years to create a post-oil economy - a declaration a post-oil economy - a declaration less of ‘oil independence’ and less of ‘oil independence’ and more the end of oil dependence.”more the end of oil dependence.”

David Milliband. David Milliband.

"with proper leadership, I "with proper leadership, I think that Americans could be think that Americans could be exhilarated by the challenge." exhilarated by the challenge."

Rep. Roscoe BartlettRep. Roscoe Bartlett

www.transitionculture.orgwww.transitionculture.org

www.transitiontowns.org/Totneswww.transitiontowns.org/Totnes