Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlookdnr.mo.gov/floodrecovery/docs/2020-04-13-national-weather-service-update.pdfApr 13, 2020  · Upper Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood

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FLOOD RECOVERY ADVISORY WORKING GROUP

Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer

Flood Outlook

Kevin Low, P.E. NOAA NWS Missouri Basin River Forecast Center

13 April 2020

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2020 MIDWEST FLOOD OUTLOOK

• Current conditions

• What’s possibly ahead over the next 3 months (April, May, June)

OUTLINE

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STATE OF MISSOURI224 locations where 4 RFCs provide forecasts

13 River Forecast Centers nationwide

State of Missouri served by 4 RFCs

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Mountain Snowpack as of 09 April 2020 (percent of average)

Mountain snowpack slightly above average.

NWS Water Supply Forecast (April—Sept 2020) expected volume % of average:

• Missouri River above Ft. Peck 110%• Yellowstone at Sidney 107%• North Platte above Pathfinder 102%• South Platte at South Platte 91%

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Plains Snowpack as of 11 April 2020

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March Precipitation and Temperature

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Comparing now to this time last year……. SOIL MOISTURE

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Comparing now to this time last year……. How high are the rivers running???

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Precipitation Outlook (short-to-long term)

April 18th thru 24th

Whole month of April

April-May-June

April 11th thru 18th

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Upper Midwest Current Flooding Conditions

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Upper Midwest April-May-June Flood Outlook

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State of Missouri Current and Projected Flooding Condtions

Locations in flood as of 11 April

Locations expected to see flooding between now and end of June

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Upper Midwest2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlook

• We are in much better shape than earlier expected.• Plains snowmelt was “picture perfect”. And, no frozen ground

and no significant rain-on-snow events.

• For the Missouri Basin portion, the mountain snows are normal to slightly-above normal.

• Beneficial drying has occurred during March, but the upper Midwest soils still abnormally wet (95%-99%tile range)

• For both the Missouri and Mississippi drainages, flood risk is enhanced due to the wet soils.

• Primary driver for flooding within the State of Missouri will be episodic rounds of thunderstorms, and unfortunately odds favor wet thru June.

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THANKS!Kevin Low, P.E.

Service Coordination Hydrologist

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER

https://www.weather.gov/mbrfc/

FLOOD RECOVERY ADVISORY WORKING GROUP