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Building a Weather - Ready Nation FLOOD RECOVERY ADVISORY WORKING GROUP Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlook Kevin Low, P.E. NOAA NWS Missouri Basin River Forecast Center 13 April 2020
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Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlookdnr.mo.gov/floodrecovery/docs/2020-04-13-national-weather-service-update.pdfApr 13, 2020  · Upper Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood

Sep 24, 2020

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Page 1: Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlookdnr.mo.gov/floodrecovery/docs/2020-04-13-national-weather-service-update.pdfApr 13, 2020  · Upper Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

FLOOD RECOVERY ADVISORY WORKING GROUP

Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer

Flood Outlook

Kevin Low, P.E. NOAA NWS Missouri Basin River Forecast Center

13 April 2020

Page 2: Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlookdnr.mo.gov/floodrecovery/docs/2020-04-13-national-weather-service-update.pdfApr 13, 2020  · Upper Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2020 MIDWEST FLOOD OUTLOOK

• Current conditions

• What’s possibly ahead over the next 3 months (April, May, June)

OUTLINE

Page 3: Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlookdnr.mo.gov/floodrecovery/docs/2020-04-13-national-weather-service-update.pdfApr 13, 2020  · Upper Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

STATE OF MISSOURI224 locations where 4 RFCs provide forecasts

13 River Forecast Centers nationwide

State of Missouri served by 4 RFCs

Page 4: Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlookdnr.mo.gov/floodrecovery/docs/2020-04-13-national-weather-service-update.pdfApr 13, 2020  · Upper Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Mountain Snowpack as of 09 April 2020 (percent of average)

Mountain snowpack slightly above average.

NWS Water Supply Forecast (April—Sept 2020) expected volume % of average:

• Missouri River above Ft. Peck 110%• Yellowstone at Sidney 107%• North Platte above Pathfinder 102%• South Platte at South Platte 91%

Page 5: Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlookdnr.mo.gov/floodrecovery/docs/2020-04-13-national-weather-service-update.pdfApr 13, 2020  · Upper Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Plains Snowpack as of 11 April 2020

Page 6: Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlookdnr.mo.gov/floodrecovery/docs/2020-04-13-national-weather-service-update.pdfApr 13, 2020  · Upper Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

March Precipitation and Temperature

Page 7: Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlookdnr.mo.gov/floodrecovery/docs/2020-04-13-national-weather-service-update.pdfApr 13, 2020  · Upper Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Comparing now to this time last year……. SOIL MOISTURE

Page 8: Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlookdnr.mo.gov/floodrecovery/docs/2020-04-13-national-weather-service-update.pdfApr 13, 2020  · Upper Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Comparing now to this time last year……. How high are the rivers running???

Page 9: Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlookdnr.mo.gov/floodrecovery/docs/2020-04-13-national-weather-service-update.pdfApr 13, 2020  · Upper Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Precipitation Outlook (short-to-long term)

April 18th thru 24th

Whole month of April

April-May-June

April 11th thru 18th

Page 10: Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlookdnr.mo.gov/floodrecovery/docs/2020-04-13-national-weather-service-update.pdfApr 13, 2020  · Upper Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Upper Midwest Current Flooding Conditions

Page 11: Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlookdnr.mo.gov/floodrecovery/docs/2020-04-13-national-weather-service-update.pdfApr 13, 2020  · Upper Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Upper Midwest April-May-June Flood Outlook

Page 12: Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlookdnr.mo.gov/floodrecovery/docs/2020-04-13-national-weather-service-update.pdfApr 13, 2020  · Upper Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

State of Missouri Current and Projected Flooding Condtions

Locations in flood as of 11 April

Locations expected to see flooding between now and end of June

Page 13: Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlookdnr.mo.gov/floodrecovery/docs/2020-04-13-national-weather-service-update.pdfApr 13, 2020  · Upper Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

Upper Midwest2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlook

• We are in much better shape than earlier expected.• Plains snowmelt was “picture perfect”. And, no frozen ground

and no significant rain-on-snow events.

• For the Missouri Basin portion, the mountain snows are normal to slightly-above normal.

• Beneficial drying has occurred during March, but the upper Midwest soils still abnormally wet (95%-99%tile range)

• For both the Missouri and Mississippi drainages, flood risk is enhanced due to the wet soils.

• Primary driver for flooding within the State of Missouri will be episodic rounds of thunderstorms, and unfortunately odds favor wet thru June.

Page 14: Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlookdnr.mo.gov/floodrecovery/docs/2020-04-13-national-weather-service-update.pdfApr 13, 2020  · Upper Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

THANKS!Kevin Low, P.E.

Service Coordination Hydrologist

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER

https://www.weather.gov/mbrfc/

FLOOD RECOVERY ADVISORY WORKING GROUP