Building a Weather - Ready Nation FLOOD RECOVERY ADVISORY WORKING GROUP Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlook Kevin Low, P.E. NOAA NWS Missouri Basin River Forecast Center 13 April 2020
Building a Weather-Ready Nation
FLOOD RECOVERY ADVISORY WORKING GROUP
Midwest 2020 Spring-Early Summer
Flood Outlook
Kevin Low, P.E. NOAA NWS Missouri Basin River Forecast Center
13 April 2020
Building a Weather-Ready Nation
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2020 MIDWEST FLOOD OUTLOOK
• Current conditions
• What’s possibly ahead over the next 3 months (April, May, June)
OUTLINE
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STATE OF MISSOURI224 locations where 4 RFCs provide forecasts
13 River Forecast Centers nationwide
State of Missouri served by 4 RFCs
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Mountain Snowpack as of 09 April 2020 (percent of average)
Mountain snowpack slightly above average.
NWS Water Supply Forecast (April—Sept 2020) expected volume % of average:
• Missouri River above Ft. Peck 110%• Yellowstone at Sidney 107%• North Platte above Pathfinder 102%• South Platte at South Platte 91%
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Plains Snowpack as of 11 April 2020
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March Precipitation and Temperature
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Comparing now to this time last year……. SOIL MOISTURE
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Comparing now to this time last year……. How high are the rivers running???
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Precipitation Outlook (short-to-long term)
April 18th thru 24th
Whole month of April
April-May-June
April 11th thru 18th
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Upper Midwest Current Flooding Conditions
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Upper Midwest April-May-June Flood Outlook
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State of Missouri Current and Projected Flooding Condtions
Locations in flood as of 11 April
Locations expected to see flooding between now and end of June
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Upper Midwest2020 Spring-Early Summer Flood Outlook
• We are in much better shape than earlier expected.• Plains snowmelt was “picture perfect”. And, no frozen ground
and no significant rain-on-snow events.
• For the Missouri Basin portion, the mountain snows are normal to slightly-above normal.
• Beneficial drying has occurred during March, but the upper Midwest soils still abnormally wet (95%-99%tile range)
• For both the Missouri and Mississippi drainages, flood risk is enhanced due to the wet soils.
• Primary driver for flooding within the State of Missouri will be episodic rounds of thunderstorms, and unfortunately odds favor wet thru June.
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THANKS!Kevin Low, P.E.
Service Coordination Hydrologist
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
https://www.weather.gov/mbrfc/
FLOOD RECOVERY ADVISORY WORKING GROUP