Load Forecast T SRINIVAS MANAGER SRLD C. LINKS PREAMBLE GENERATION ANALYSIS GROWTH OF I/C GROWTH OF I/C Vs DEMAND PHYSICAL INTERPRETATION ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION.

Load ForecastLoad Forecast

T SRINIVAST SRINIVASMANAGERMANAGER

SRLD CSRLD C

PREAMBLE

GENERATION ANALYSIS

GROWTH OF I/CGROWTH OF I/C Vs

DEMAND

PHYSICAL INTERPRETATION

ELECTRIC CONSUMPTIONPATTERN OF INDIA

INTER-REGIONAL IMPORTS CONCLUSION

GENERATION ADDITIONSUPTO MAR-05

LOAD DURATION CURVE 2002-03

DEMAND INDICES RANKING

COMPARISION OFACTUAL Vs FORECASTED

DEMANDIEGC PROVISION

BACKGROUND LOAD FORECAST

APPROACHES

MORE LINKS

AP KAR KER

TN SR HOURWISE FORECAST

PEAK LEAN AVERAGE

LOAD FACTOR PEAK - LEAN SPARE

PREAMBLEPREAMBLEEssential part of Power system planning & operationEssential part of Power system planning & operationPlanner’s mind obsessed with Exponential growthPlanner’s mind obsessed with Exponential growthIndian forecast – Rarely hit bull’s eyeIndian forecast – Rarely hit bull’s eyeImportant task – Reliability & Economic operationImportant task – Reliability & Economic operationHighly capital intensiveHighly capital intensiveRequires axiomatic approachRequires axiomatic approachForecast based on time series AnalysisForecast based on time series AnalysisIEGC provisionIEGC provisionFactors ConsideredFactors Considered– Peak demandPeak demand– Lean demandLean demand– Energy DemandEnergy Demand– Economic IndicatorEconomic Indicator– Pattern of consumptionPattern of consumption– Diurnal VariationDiurnal Variation– Seasonal DependencySeasonal Dependency

BACKGROUNDBACKGROUND

Acute shortage in 80’s & 90’sAcute shortage in 80’s & 90’s

Commissioning of Inter-regional Link Commissioning of Inter-regional Link (HVDC & B2B)(HVDC & B2B)

Additions of Additions of IPP’sIPP’s

Additional 1000MW per year since 2000Additional 1000MW per year since 2000

LOAD FORECASTLOAD FORECAST

Reliable demand forecast – yield accurate Reliable demand forecast – yield accurate results.results.

Entire concentration on peak power and Entire concentration on peak power and energy consumptionenergy consumption

Little consideration to the load curveLittle consideration to the load curve

YEAR YEAR 1998-991998-99 2000-012000-01 2001-022001-02 2002-032002-03

Projected as per 16Projected as per 16thth EPS report (2000)EPS report (2000)

17,97917,979 21,29721,297 22,78422,784 24,21224,212

Actual AchievedActual Achieved 17,18017,180 19,42819,428 20,06320,063 20,42820,428

DEMAND IN MW

APPROACHESAPPROACHES

ExtrapolationExtrapolation

Curve ExpertCurve Expert

Economic correlationEconomic correlation

PHYSICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE PHYSICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE CO-EFFICIENTCO-EFFICIENT

EQUATION R2Proj 2005

A EXPONENTIAL

y = 14381e0.0002x 0.69 23982 y = 11125e0.0002x 0.41 18552 y = 12473e0.0002x 0.54 20800

B LINEAR

y = 2.6442x + 14346 0.69 21107 y = 2.0384x + 11163 0.41 16375 y = 2.21x + 12480.05 0.54 18131

C POLYNOMIAL

y = -0.0016x2 + 5.523x + 13483

0.74 17144y = -0.0015x2 + 4.6544x +

103790.46 12473

y = -0.0016x2 + 5.0952x + 11616

0.60 14183

SOUTHERN REGION

CURVE TYPELEAN LOADPEAK LOAD AVERAGE LOAD

EQUATION R2 Proj 2005

A EXPONENTIAL

y = 5281.4e0.00009x 0.27 6648 y = 4195.8e0.00008x 0.14 5148 y = 4599.2e0.0001x 0.26 5939

B LINEAR

y = 0.5226x + 5298.7 0.27 6635 y = 0.3183x + 4231.3 0.13 5045 y = 0.5128x + 4627.3 0.25 5939

C POLYNOMIAL

y = - 0.0006x2 + 1.6484x + 4961.5

0.35 5254 y = -0.0007x2 + 1.5983x +3848 0.27 3358y = -0.0006x2 + 1.5994x +

4301.90.33 4469

ANDHRA PRADESH

A EXPONENTIAL

y = 3118.8e0.0002x 0.53 5201 y = 2215.6e0.00009x 0.03 2789 y = 2673e0.0001x 0.23 3452

B LINEAR

y = 0.647x + 3105.7 0.54 4760 y = 0.1957x + 2290.1 0.03 2791 y = 0.4316x + 2697.8 0.23 3801

C POLYNOMIAL

y = - 0.0002x2 + 0.9897x + 3003.1

0.55 4226y = -0.0006x2 + 1.2043x

+1988.10.10 1145

y = -0.0004x2 + 1.1694x + 2476.9

0.28 2852

KARNATAKA

A EXPONENTIAL

y = 1691.8e0.0001x 0.47 2185 y = 977.54e0.0001x 0.23 1262 y = 1228.2e0.0001x 0.41 1586

B LINEAR

y = 0.2432x + 1695.1 0.46 2317 y = 0.1023x + 980.53 0.23 1242 y = 0.1333x + 1229.5 0.41 1570

C POLYNOMIAL

y = -0.0004x2 + 0.9262x + 1490.6

0.70 1244y = -0.00004x2 + 0.1802x

+957.20.24 1156

y = -0.0001x2 + 0.3669x +1159.5

0.50 1444

KERALA

A EXPONENTIAL

y = 4423.3e0.0002x 0.73 7376 y = 3342.4e0.0002x 0.32 5574 y = 3885.8e0.0002x 0.58 6480

B LINEAR

y = 1.0166x + 4388.5 0.73 6988 y = 0.7244x + 3340.2 0.38 5192 y = 0.8205x + 3866.2 0.59 5964

C POLYNOMIAL

y = - 0.0002x2 + 1.4051x + 4272.1

0.74 6557y = -0.00005x2 + 0.8082x

+3315.10.38 5055

y = -0.0002x2 + 1.1566x + 3765.6

0.60 5415

TAMIL NADU

GENERATION ANALYSISGENERATION ANALYSIS

INSTALLED CAPACITYINSTALLED CAPACITY

HYDRO – THERMAL MIX 36 : 64HYDRO – THERMAL MIX 36 : 64

LIKELY ADDITIONSLIKELY ADDITIONS

13836 (48%)

10530 (36%)780 (3%)2783 (10%)

28 (0.1%)

943 (3%)

HYDRO THERMAL GAS WIND IPP NUCLEAR

INSTALLED CAPACITY OF SOUTHERN REGION AS ON 01-10-2003

28900MW

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

FORECAST NEEDS TO BE DONEFORECAST NEEDS TO BE DONE– PAST TRENDSPAST TRENDS

– PRESENT SITUATIONPRESENT SITUATION

– FUTURE REQUIREMENTSFUTURE REQUIREMENTS

DIFFERENT MODELS SHOULD BE APPLIEDDIFFERENT MODELS SHOULD BE APPLIED

SOUTHERN STATES TO DEVELOP FORECASTING SOUTHERN STATES TO DEVELOP FORECASTING TECHNIQUETECHNIQUE

LONG TERM AND SHORT TERM FORECAST LONG TERM AND SHORT TERM FORECAST ASSUMED SIGNIFICANCE UNDER ABTASSUMED SIGNIFICANCE UNDER ABT

GENERATION MIX MUST BE PLANNED GIVING DUE GENERATION MIX MUST BE PLANNED GIVING DUE REGARD TO LOAD CURVEREGARD TO LOAD CURVE

AN EXERCISE TO BE DONE REGULARLY – ELSE AN EXERCISE TO BE DONE REGULARLY – ELSE MAY PROVE VERY COSTLY.MAY PROVE VERY COSTLY.

IEGC PROVISIONIEGC PROVISION

IEGC order issued by CERC has given due importance to load IEGC order issued by CERC has given due importance to load forecasting for operational purposes. Clause 6.3.3 of IEGC is forecasting for operational purposes. Clause 6.3.3 of IEGC is

quoted below:quoted below:

Quote:Quote:

“ “ Each State/SLDC shall develop methodologies/mechanisms Each State/SLDC shall develop methodologies/mechanisms for daily/weekly/monthly/yearly demand estimation (MW, MVAR for daily/weekly/monthly/yearly demand estimation (MW, MVAR

and MWH) for operational purposes. The data for the estimation and MWH) for operational purposes. The data for the estimation shall also include load shedding, power cuts etc. SLDCs shall shall also include load shedding, power cuts etc. SLDCs shall

also maintain historical database for demand estimation. “also maintain historical database for demand estimation. “

Unquote:Unquote:

COMMISSIONING OF INTER-REGIONAL LINKSCOMMISSIONING OF INTER-REGIONAL LINKS

HVDC B2B @ Bhadrawati HVDC B2B @ Bhadrawati 19971997(Between WR & SR) 1,000MW(Between WR & SR) 1,000MW

HVDC B2B @ GazuwakaHVDC B2B @ Gazuwaka 19991999(Between ER & SR) 500MW(Between ER & SR) 500MW

HVDC Talcher – KolarHVDC Talcher – Kolar 20022002(Between ER & SR) 2,000MW(Between ER & SR) 2,000MW

GAZUWAKA + KOLAR 0 0 1468 2513 3666 4199 3200

CHANDRAPUR 403 1571 904 527 788 165 230

TOTAL 403 1571 2372 3040 4454 4364 3430

1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-032003-04

(Upto Oct-03)

INTER REGIONAL IMPORTS (MUINTER REGIONAL IMPORTS (MU))

RECENT MAJOR IPP’S ADDITIONSRECENT MAJOR IPP’S ADDITIONS

KayamkulamKayamkulam 350MW 350MW 19991999

KondapalliKondapalli 350MW 350MW 20002000

P.P.NallurP.P.Nallur 330MW 330MW 20012001

Tanir BhaviTanir Bhavi 235MW 235MW 20012001

BSESBSES 220MW 220MW 2002 2002

ST-CMSST-CMS 250MW 250MW 20022002

SimhadriSimhadri 1,000MW1,000MW 20022002

21000A

GROWTH OF ENERGY AND PEAK LOAD OF SR

PEAK LOAD

ENERGY

3 2850

3200088

GROWTH OF INSTALLED CAPACITY IN SR

GROWTH OF I/C Vs DEMAND MET

DMDI.C

DMD 9204 10206 10874 11690 12838 13138 14296 15682 17180 18535 19428 20063 20428

I.C 16641 17074 17423 18360 19475 19830 20304 21298 22133 22983 24173 26163 28501

1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03

% Growth

10.9 6.5 7.5 9.8 2.3 8.8 9.7 9.6 7.9 4.8 3.3 1.8

% Growth

2.6 2.0 5.4 6.1 1.8 2.4 4.9 3.9 3.8 5.2 8.2 8.9

CHANGING CONSUMPTION PATTERNYear

ANDHRA PRADESH

KARNATAKA KERALATAMIL NADU

ALL INDIA

1993-94 15 16 33 16 18

1997-98 20 18 48 16 21

1993-94 4 3 14 9 7

1997-98 4 3 9 10 7

1993-94 33 32 44 43 39

1997-98 29 21 33 44 35

1993-94 44 43 4 27 30

1997-98 41 52 4 27 30

1993-94 4 6 5 5 6

1997-98 6 6 6 3 7

PUBLIC UTILITY

DOMESTIC

COMMERCIAL

INDUSTRY

AGRICULTURE

ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION OF INDIA

10152025

303540

1988-8

1990-9

1992-9

1994-9

1996-9

1998-9

2000-0

2002-0

2004-0

YEAR --->

Domestic Commercial Agriculture Industry

TIME --->

TYPICAL DAILY LOAD CURVE OF SR

TYPICAL DAILY LOAD DURATION CURVE OF SR

TIME --->

SEASONAL VARIATION OF SR PEAK DEMAND (IN P.U)

MONTHS --->

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR SRSEASONAL VARIATION OF SR MAX DEMAND (IN MW)

MONTHS ----->

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH OF STATESSEASONAL VARIATION OF AP YEARLY PEAK DEMAND (IN P.U)

MONTHS --->

SEASONAL VARIATION OF KAR YEARLY PEAK DEMAND ( IN P.U)

MONTHS --->

SEASONAL VARIATION OF KER YEARLY PEAK DEMAND ( IN P.U )

MONTHS --->

SEASONAL VARIATION OF TN YEARLY PEAK DEMAND (IN P.U)

MONTHS --->

ANDHRA PRADESH KARNATAKA

TAMIL NADUKERALA

SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS

AP KAR KER TN

ALL INDIA

Per Capita Electric Consumption, 2000-2001 (kwh)

489 390 311 510 350

Per capita value added in Industries, 1999-00 (Rs)

1128 1668 1162 2517 1549

Gross factory output per capita, 1999-00 (Rs)

1707 8277 7896 15523 8965

% of main workers to total population 2001

38.1 36.7 25.9 38.1 30.6

Source - Statistical Outline of India, 2002-03, Tata Services limited.

Dept. of Economics and Statistics.

SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS

AP KAR KER TN

ALL INDIA

Per Capita Electric Consumption, 2000-2001 (kwh)

489 390 311 510 350

Per capita value added in Industries, 1999-00 (Rs)

1128 1668 1162 2517 1549

Gross factory output per capita, 1999-00 (Rs)

1707 8277 7896 15523 8965

% of main workers to total population 2001

38.1 36.7 25.9 38.1 30.6

Source - Statistical Outline of India, 2002-03, Tata Services limited.

Dept. of Economics and Statistics.

RELATIVE RANKING OF THE CONSTITUENTS ON DIFFERENT INDICES BASED ON THE SYNTHESIS OF DATA

ATTRIBUTE RELATIVE POSITION HIGH ---> LOW

PEAK GROWTH RATE TN KAR AP KEL

SATURATION EFFECTS AP KEL KAR TN

LEAN GROWTH RATE TN AP KAR KEL

ENERGY GROWTH RATE TN AP KAR KEL

DIFF. OF PEAK & LEAN KAR TN AP KEL

LOAD FACTOR AP TN KEL KAR

SEASONAL VARIATION KAR AP KEL TN

EXPECTED GENERATIONS ADDITION UPTO MAR – 05

NAME OF THE STATIONHYDRO

THERMAL IPP's

UTILITY

EXPECTED IN 2003-

EXPECTED IN 2004-

SRISAILAM LEFT BANK HYDRO AP 150

MINI HYDEL IPP AP 30

WIND ENERGY IPP AP 55

MINI POWER PLANTS IPP AP 309 60

INDUSTRIAL WASTE BASED IPP AP 16 33

MUNICIPAL WASTE BASED IPP AP 13 11

BIOMASS IPP AP 114 126

BAGASSE IPP AP 95 40

ALMATTI DAM PH HYDRO KAR 70 165

BELLARY-TPS THERMAL KAR 500

PYKARA ULTIMATE HYDRO TN 150

BHAVANI STAGE II HYDRO TN 30 30

KUTTALAM THERMAL TN 100

ARKAY ENERGY LTD. IPP TN 53

ABAN POWER Co IPP TN 103

TALCHER STAGE II THERMAL NTPC 500 1000

TOTAL 1685 2068

FREQUENCY PROFILE OF SR

MONTHS --->

AVG OF MAX

AVG OF AVG

AVG OF MIN

FREQUENCY CURVE FOR 8th AUGUST 2003FVI = 0.10

Avg Freq = 50.00Hz

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

LOAD DURATION CURVE OF SR 2002-03

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

% OF TIME --->

RELATIVE RANKING OF THE CONSTITUENTS ON DIFFERENT INDICES BASED ON THE SYNTHESIS OF DATA

ATTRIBUTE RELATIVE POSITION HIGH ---> LOW

PEAK GROWTH RATE TN KAR AP KEL

SATURATION EFFECTS AP KEL KAR TN

LEAN GROWTH RATE TN AP KAR KEL

ENERGY GROWTH RATE TN AP KAR KEL

DIFF. OF PEAK & LEAN KAR TN AP KEL

LOAD FACTOR AP TN KEL KAR

SEASONAL VARIATION KAR AP KEL TN

COMPARISION OF ACTUAL & FORECASTED DEMAND OF SR

SOUTHERN REGION

ACTUAL DEMAND MET(MW)

FORECASTED DEMAND

VARIATION (MW)

% VARIATION

Apr-03 19944 19193 751 3.77

May-03 19379 19256 123 0.63

Jun-03 18595 19346 -751 -4.04

Jul-03 18755 19489 -734 -3.91

Aug-03 18715 19544 -829 -4.43

Sep-03 19709 19658 51 0.26

Oct-03 19506 19777 -271 -1.38

SEASONAL VARIATION OF SR PEAK DEMAND (IN P.U)

MONTHS --->

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR SRSEASONAL VARIATION OF SR MAX DEMAND (IN MW)

MONTHS ----->

LOAD FACTOR OF SR

MONTHS ---->

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF SR

MONTHS ---->

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF SR

MONTHS ---->

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR AP

SEASONAL VARIATION OF AP YEARLY PEAK DEMAND (IN P.U)

MONTHS --->

SEASONAL VARIATION OF AP MAX DEMAND (IN MW)

Jul-98

Jul-99

Jul-00

Jul-01

Jul-02

Jul-03

Jul-04

MONTHS ----->

LOAD FACTOR OF ANDHRA PRADESH

MONTHS ---->

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF AP

MONTHS ---->

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF AP

MONTHS ---->

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR KAR

SEASONAL VARIATION OF KAR YEARLY PEAK DEMAND ( IN P.U)

MONTHS --->

SEASONAL VARIATION OF KAR MAX DEMAND (IN MW)

MONTHS ----->

LOAD FACTOR OF KARNATAKA

MONTHS ---->

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF KARNATAKA

MONTHS ---->

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF KAR

MONTHS ---->

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR KERALA

SEASONAL VARIATION OF KER YEARLY PEAK DEMAND ( IN P.U )

MONTHS --->

SEASONAL VARIATION OF KER MAX DEMAND (IN MW)

MONTHS ----->

LOAD FACTOR OF KERALA

MONTHS ---->

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF KERALA

MONTHS ---->

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF KER

MONTHS ---->

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR TN

SEASONAL VARIATION OF TN YEARLY PEAK DEMAND (IN P.U)

MONTHS --->

SEASONAL VARIATION OF TN MAX DEMAND (IN MW)

-1500-1000

10001500

20002500

MONTHS ----->

LOAD FACTOR OF TAMIL NADU

MONTHS ---->

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF TN

MONTHS ---->

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF TN

MONTHS ---->

LOAD FACTOR OF

MONTHS ---->

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK AND LEAN OF

Thank you

Load Forecast T SRINIVAS MANAGER SRLD C. LINKS PREAMBLE GENERATION ANALYSIS GROWTH OF I/C GROWTH OF I/C Vs DEMAND PHYSICAL INTERPRETATION ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION.

load curvedemand

load shedding

mw hvdc b2b

load duration curve

load curvean exercise

gazuwaka1999between

peak power

power cuts

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