Load Forecast T SRINIVAS MANAGER SRLD C. LINKS PREAMBLE GENERATION ANALYSIS GROWTH OF I/C GROWTH OF I/C Vs DEMAND PHYSICAL INTERPRETATION ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION.

Load ForecastLoad Forecast

T SRINIVAST SRINIVASMANAGERMANAGER

SRLD CSRLD C

LINKS

PREAMBLE

GENERATION ANALYSIS

GROWTH OF I/CGROWTH OF I/C Vs

DEMAND

PHYSICAL INTERPRETATION

ELECTRIC CONSUMPTIONPATTERN OF INDIA

INTER-REGIONAL IMPORTS CONCLUSION

GENERATION ADDITIONSUPTO MAR-05

LOAD DURATION CURVE 2002-03

DEMAND INDICES RANKING

COMPARISION OFACTUAL Vs FORECASTED

DEMANDIEGC PROVISION

BACKGROUND LOAD FORECAST

APPROACHES

MORE LINKS

CONSUMPTION PATTERN

FREQUENCY PROFILE

DAILY LOAD CURVE

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

GROWTH OF ENERGY VsDEMAND

COMPARISION SPARE

MORE LINKS

AP KAR KER

TN SR HOURWISE FORECAST

PEAK LEAN AVERAGE

LOAD FACTOR PEAK - LEAN SPARE

PREAMBLEPREAMBLEEssential part of Power system planning & operationEssential part of Power system planning & operationPlanner’s mind obsessed with Exponential growthPlanner’s mind obsessed with Exponential growthIndian forecast – Rarely hit bull’s eyeIndian forecast – Rarely hit bull’s eyeImportant task – Reliability & Economic operationImportant task – Reliability & Economic operationHighly capital intensiveHighly capital intensiveRequires axiomatic approachRequires axiomatic approachForecast based on time series AnalysisForecast based on time series AnalysisIEGC provisionIEGC provisionFactors ConsideredFactors Considered– Peak demandPeak demand– Lean demandLean demand– Energy DemandEnergy Demand– Economic IndicatorEconomic Indicator– Pattern of consumptionPattern of consumption– Diurnal VariationDiurnal Variation– Seasonal DependencySeasonal Dependency

BACKGROUNDBACKGROUND

Acute shortage in 80’s & 90’sAcute shortage in 80’s & 90’s

Commissioning of Inter-regional Link Commissioning of Inter-regional Link (HVDC & B2B)(HVDC & B2B)

Additions of Additions of IPP’sIPP’s

Additional 1000MW per year since 2000Additional 1000MW per year since 2000

LOAD FORECASTLOAD FORECAST

Reliable demand forecast – yield accurate Reliable demand forecast – yield accurate results.results.

Entire concentration on peak power and Entire concentration on peak power and energy consumptionenergy consumption

Little consideration to the load curveLittle consideration to the load curve

YEAR YEAR 1998-991998-99 2000-012000-01 2001-022001-02 2002-032002-03

Projected as per 16Projected as per 16thth EPS report (2000)EPS report (2000)

17,97917,979 21,29721,297 22,78422,784 24,21224,212

Actual AchievedActual Achieved 17,18017,180 19,42819,428 20,06320,063 20,42820,428

DEMAND IN MW

APPROACHESAPPROACHES

ExtrapolationExtrapolation

Curve ExpertCurve Expert

Economic correlationEconomic correlation

PHYSICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE PHYSICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE CO-EFFICIENTCO-EFFICIENT

EQUATION R2Proj 2005

EQUATION R2Proj 2005

EQUATION R2Proj 2005

A EXPONENTIAL

y = 14381e0.0002x 0.69 23982 y = 11125e0.0002x 0.41 18552 y = 12473e0.0002x 0.54 20800

B LINEAR

y = 2.6442x + 14346 0.69 21107 y = 2.0384x + 11163 0.41 16375 y = 2.21x + 12480.05 0.54 18131

C POLYNOMIAL

y = -0.0016x2 + 5.523x + 13483

0.74 17144y = -0.0015x2 + 4.6544x +

103790.46 12473

y = -0.0016x2 + 5.0952x + 11616

0.60 14183

SOUTHERN REGION

CURVE TYPELEAN LOADPEAK LOAD AVERAGE LOAD

EQUATION R2 Proj 2005

EQUATION R2 Proj 2005

EQUATION R2 Proj 2005

A EXPONENTIAL

y = 5281.4e0.00009x 0.27 6648 y = 4195.8e0.00008x 0.14 5148 y = 4599.2e0.0001x 0.26 5939

B LINEAR

y = 0.5226x + 5298.7 0.27 6635 y = 0.3183x + 4231.3 0.13 5045 y = 0.5128x + 4627.3 0.25 5939

C POLYNOMIAL

y = - 0.0006x2 + 1.6484x + 4961.5

0.35 5254 y = -0.0007x2 + 1.5983x +3848 0.27 3358y = -0.0006x2 + 1.5994x +

4301.90.33 4469

ANDHRA PRADESH

CURVE TYPELEAN LOADPEAK LOAD AVERAGE LOAD

PHYSICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE PHYSICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE CO-EFFICIENTCO-EFFICIENT

EQUATION R2 Proj 2005

EQUATION R2 Proj 2005

EQUATION R2 Proj 2005

A EXPONENTIAL

y = 3118.8e0.0002x 0.53 5201 y = 2215.6e0.00009x 0.03 2789 y = 2673e0.0001x 0.23 3452

B LINEAR

y = 0.647x + 3105.7 0.54 4760 y = 0.1957x + 2290.1 0.03 2791 y = 0.4316x + 2697.8 0.23 3801

C POLYNOMIAL

y = - 0.0002x2 + 0.9897x + 3003.1

0.55 4226y = -0.0006x2 + 1.2043x

+1988.10.10 1145

y = -0.0004x2 + 1.1694x + 2476.9

0.28 2852

KARNATAKA

CURVE TYPELEAN LOADPEAK LOAD AVERAGE LOAD

EQUATION R2 Proj 2005

EQUATION R2 Proj 2005

EQUATION R2 Proj 2005

A EXPONENTIAL

y = 1691.8e0.0001x 0.47 2185 y = 977.54e0.0001x 0.23 1262 y = 1228.2e0.0001x 0.41 1586

B LINEAR

y = 0.2432x + 1695.1 0.46 2317 y = 0.1023x + 980.53 0.23 1242 y = 0.1333x + 1229.5 0.41 1570

C POLYNOMIAL

y = -0.0004x2 + 0.9262x + 1490.6

0.70 1244y = -0.00004x2 + 0.1802x

+957.20.24 1156

y = -0.0001x2 + 0.3669x +1159.5

0.50 1444

KERALA

CURVE TYPELEAN LOADPEAK LOAD AVERAGE LOAD

PHYSICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE PHYSICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE CO-EFFICIENTCO-EFFICIENT

EQUATION R2 Proj 2005

EQUATION R2 Proj 2005

EQUATION R2 Proj 2005

A EXPONENTIAL

y = 4423.3e0.0002x 0.73 7376 y = 3342.4e0.0002x 0.32 5574 y = 3885.8e0.0002x 0.58 6480

B LINEAR

y = 1.0166x + 4388.5 0.73 6988 y = 0.7244x + 3340.2 0.38 5192 y = 0.8205x + 3866.2 0.59 5964

C POLYNOMIAL

y = - 0.0002x2 + 1.4051x + 4272.1

0.74 6557y = -0.00005x2 + 0.8082x

+3315.10.38 5055

y = -0.0002x2 + 1.1566x + 3765.6

0.60 5415

TAMIL NADU

CURVE TYPELEAN LOADPEAK LOAD AVERAGE LOAD

GENERATION ANALYSISGENERATION ANALYSIS

INSTALLED CAPACITYINSTALLED CAPACITY

HYDRO – THERMAL MIX 36 : 64HYDRO – THERMAL MIX 36 : 64

LIKELY ADDITIONSLIKELY ADDITIONS

13836 (48%)

10530 (36%)780 (3%)2783 (10%)

28 (0.1%)

943 (3%)

HYDRO THERMAL GAS WIND IPP NUCLEAR

INSTALLED CAPACITY OF SOUTHERN REGION AS ON 01-10-2003

IN MW

28900MW

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

FORECAST NEEDS TO BE DONEFORECAST NEEDS TO BE DONE– PAST TRENDSPAST TRENDS

– PRESENT SITUATIONPRESENT SITUATION

– FUTURE REQUIREMENTSFUTURE REQUIREMENTS

DIFFERENT MODELS SHOULD BE APPLIEDDIFFERENT MODELS SHOULD BE APPLIED

SOUTHERN STATES TO DEVELOP FORECASTING SOUTHERN STATES TO DEVELOP FORECASTING TECHNIQUETECHNIQUE

LONG TERM AND SHORT TERM FORECAST LONG TERM AND SHORT TERM FORECAST ASSUMED SIGNIFICANCE UNDER ABTASSUMED SIGNIFICANCE UNDER ABT

GENERATION MIX MUST BE PLANNED GIVING DUE GENERATION MIX MUST BE PLANNED GIVING DUE REGARD TO LOAD CURVEREGARD TO LOAD CURVE

AN EXERCISE TO BE DONE REGULARLY – ELSE AN EXERCISE TO BE DONE REGULARLY – ELSE MAY PROVE VERY COSTLY.MAY PROVE VERY COSTLY.

IEGC PROVISIONIEGC PROVISION

IEGC order issued by CERC has given due importance to load IEGC order issued by CERC has given due importance to load forecasting for operational purposes. Clause 6.3.3 of IEGC is forecasting for operational purposes. Clause 6.3.3 of IEGC is

quoted below:quoted below:

Quote:Quote:

“ “ Each State/SLDC shall develop methodologies/mechanisms Each State/SLDC shall develop methodologies/mechanisms for daily/weekly/monthly/yearly demand estimation (MW, MVAR for daily/weekly/monthly/yearly demand estimation (MW, MVAR

and MWH) for operational purposes. The data for the estimation and MWH) for operational purposes. The data for the estimation shall also include load shedding, power cuts etc. SLDCs shall shall also include load shedding, power cuts etc. SLDCs shall

also maintain historical database for demand estimation. “also maintain historical database for demand estimation. “

Unquote:Unquote:

COMMISSIONING OF INTER-REGIONAL LINKSCOMMISSIONING OF INTER-REGIONAL LINKS

HVDC B2B @ Bhadrawati HVDC B2B @ Bhadrawati 19971997(Between WR & SR) 1,000MW(Between WR & SR) 1,000MW

HVDC B2B @ GazuwakaHVDC B2B @ Gazuwaka 19991999(Between ER & SR) 500MW(Between ER & SR) 500MW

HVDC Talcher – KolarHVDC Talcher – Kolar 20022002(Between ER & SR) 2,000MW(Between ER & SR) 2,000MW

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

GAZUWAKA + KOLAR 0 0 1468 2513 3666 4199 3200

CHANDRAPUR 403 1571 904 527 788 165 230

TOTAL 403 1571 2372 3040 4454 4364 3430

1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-032003-04

(Upto Oct-03)

INTER REGIONAL IMPORTS (MUINTER REGIONAL IMPORTS (MU))

RECENT MAJOR IPP’S ADDITIONSRECENT MAJOR IPP’S ADDITIONS

KayamkulamKayamkulam 350MW 350MW 19991999

KondapalliKondapalli 350MW 350MW 20002000

P.P.NallurP.P.Nallur 330MW 330MW 20012001

Tanir BhaviTanir Bhavi 235MW 235MW 20012001

BSESBSES 220MW 220MW 2002 2002

ST-CMSST-CMS 250MW 250MW 20022002

SimhadriSimhadri 1,000MW1,000MW 20022002

11000

13000

15000

17000

19000

21000A

pr-9

8Ju

l-98

Oct

-98

Jan-

99A

pr-9

9Ju

l-99

Oct

-99

Jan-

00A

pr-0

0Ju

l-00

Oct

-00

Jan-

01A

pr-0

1Ju

l-01

Oct

-01

Jan-

02A

pr-0

2Ju

l-02

Oct

-02

Jan-

03

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

GROWTH OF ENERGY AND PEAK LOAD OF SR

PEAK LOAD

ENERGY

1461

9

1559

6

1664

1

1707

4

1742

3

1836

0

1947

5

1983

0

2030

4

2129

8

2213

3

2298

3

2417

3

2616

3 2850

1

12000

16000

20000

24000

28000

3200088

-89

89-9

0

90-9

1

91-9

2

92-9

3

93-9

4

94-9

5

95-9

6

96-9

7

97-9

8

98-9

9

99-0

0

00-0

1

01-0

2

02-0

3

MW

GROWTH OF INSTALLED CAPACITY IN SR

GROWTH OF I/C Vs DEMAND MET

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

DMDI.C

DMD 9204 10206 10874 11690 12838 13138 14296 15682 17180 18535 19428 20063 20428

I.C 16641 17074 17423 18360 19475 19830 20304 21298 22133 22983 24173 26163 28501

1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03

% Growth

DMD

10.9 6.5 7.5 9.8 2.3 8.8 9.7 9.6 7.9 4.8 3.3 1.8

% Growth

I/C

2.6 2.0 5.4 6.1 1.8 2.4 4.9 3.9 3.8 5.2 8.2 8.9

CHANGING CONSUMPTION PATTERNYear

ANDHRA PRADESH

KARNATAKA KERALATAMIL NADU

ALL INDIA

1993-94 15 16 33 16 18

1997-98 20 18 48 16 21

1993-94 4 3 14 9 7

1997-98 4 3 9 10 7

1993-94 33 32 44 43 39

1997-98 29 21 33 44 35

1993-94 44 43 4 27 30

1997-98 41 52 4 27 30

1993-94 4 6 5 5 6

1997-98 6 6 6 3 7

PUBLIC UTILITY

DOMESTIC

COMMERCIAL

INDUSTRY

AGRICULTURE

ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION OF INDIA

05

10152025

303540

4550

1988-8

9

1990-9

1

1992-9

3

1994-9

5

1996-9

7

1998-9

9

2000-0

1

2002-0

3

2004-0

5

YEAR --->

IN %

Domestic Commercial Agriculture Industry

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

17000

18000

01:0

0

02:0

0

03:0

0

04:0

0

05:0

0

06:0

0

07:0

0

08:0

0

09:0

0

10:0

0

11:0

0

12:0

0

13:0

0

14:0

0

15:0

0

16:0

0

17:0

0

18:0

0

19:0

0

20:0

0

21:0

0

22:0

0

23:0

0

24:0

0

TIME --->

DE

MA

ND

IN

MW

-->

TYPICAL DAILY LOAD CURVE OF SR

TYPICAL DAILY LOAD DURATION CURVE OF SR

13500

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

17000

17500

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

00

TIME --->

DE

MA

ND

IN

MW

-->

SEASONAL VARIATION OF SR PEAK DEMAND (IN P.U)

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

Ap

r-9

8Ju

l-9

8O

ct-9

8Ja

n-9

9A

pr-

99

Jul-

99

Oct

-99

Jan

-00

Ap

r-0

0Ju

l-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-0

1A

pr-

01

Jul-

01

Oct

-01

Jan

-02

Ap

r-0

2Ju

l-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-0

3A

pr-

03

Jul-

03

Oct

-03

Jan

-04

Ap

r-0

4Ju

l-0

4

MONTHS --->

IN P

U -

-->

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR SRSEASONAL VARIATION OF SR MAX DEMAND (IN MW)

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Ap

r-9

8Ju

l-9

8O

ct-9

8Ja

n-9

9A

pr-

99

Jul-

99

Oct

-99

Jan

-00

Ap

r-0

0Ju

l-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-0

1A

pr-

01

Jul-

01

Oct

-01

Jan

-02

Ap

r-0

2Ju

l-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-0

3A

pr-

03

Jul-

03

Oct

-03

Jan

-04

Ap

r-0

4Ju

l-0

4

MONTHS ----->

IN M

W -

--->

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH OF STATESSEASONAL VARIATION OF AP YEARLY PEAK DEMAND (IN P.U)

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

Apr

-98

Jul-9

8O

ct-9

8Ja

n-99

Apr

-99

Jul-9

9O

ct-9

9Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4

MONTHS --->

IN P

U --

->

SEASONAL VARIATION OF KAR YEARLY PEAK DEMAND ( IN P.U)

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

Apr

-98

Jul-9

8O

ct-9

8Ja

n-99

Apr

-99

Jul-9

9O

ct-9

9Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4

MONTHS --->

IN P

U --

->

SEASONAL VARIATION OF KER YEARLY PEAK DEMAND ( IN P.U )

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

Apr

-98

Jul-9

8O

ct-9

8Ja

n-99

Apr

-99

Jul-9

9O

ct-9

9Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4

MONTHS --->

IN P

U --

->

SEASONAL VARIATION OF TN YEARLY PEAK DEMAND (IN P.U)

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

Apr

-98

Jul-9

8O

ct-9

8Ja

n-99

Apr

-99

Jul-9

9O

ct-9

9Ja

n-00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1O

ct-0

1Ja

n-02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3O

ct-0

3Ja

n-04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4

MONTHS --->

IN P

U --

->

ANDHRA PRADESH KARNATAKA

TAMIL NADUKERALA

SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS

 AP KAR KER TN

ALL INDIA

Per Capita Electric Consumption, 2000-2001 (kwh)

489 390 311 510 350

Per capita value added in Industries, 1999-00 (Rs)

1128 1668 1162 2517 1549

Gross factory output per capita, 1999-00 (Rs)

1707 8277 7896 15523 8965

% of main workers to total population 2001

38.1 36.7 25.9 38.1 30.6

Source - Statistical Outline of India, 2002-03, Tata Services limited.

Dept. of Economics and Statistics.

SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS

 AP KAR KER TN

ALL INDIA

Per Capita Electric Consumption, 2000-2001 (kwh)

489 390 311 510 350

Per capita value added in Industries, 1999-00 (Rs)

1128 1668 1162 2517 1549

Gross factory output per capita, 1999-00 (Rs)

1707 8277 7896 15523 8965

% of main workers to total population 2001

38.1 36.7 25.9 38.1 30.6

Source - Statistical Outline of India, 2002-03, Tata Services limited.

Dept. of Economics and Statistics.

RELATIVE RANKING OF THE CONSTITUENTS ON DIFFERENT INDICES BASED ON THE SYNTHESIS OF DATA

ATTRIBUTE RELATIVE POSITION HIGH ---> LOW

PEAK GROWTH RATE TN KAR AP KEL

SATURATION EFFECTS AP KEL KAR TN

LEAN GROWTH RATE TN AP KAR KEL

ENERGY GROWTH RATE TN AP KAR KEL

DIFF. OF PEAK & LEAN KAR TN AP KEL

LOAD FACTOR AP TN KEL KAR

SEASONAL VARIATION KAR AP KEL TN

EXPECTED GENERATIONS ADDITION UPTO MAR – 05

NAME OF THE STATIONHYDRO

THERMAL IPP's

UTILITY

EXPECTED IN 2003-

04

EXPECTED IN 2004-

05

SRISAILAM LEFT BANK HYDRO AP 150  

MINI HYDEL IPP AP 30  

WIND ENERGY IPP AP 55  

MINI POWER PLANTS IPP AP 309 60

INDUSTRIAL WASTE BASED IPP AP 16 33

MUNICIPAL WASTE BASED IPP AP 13 11

BIOMASS IPP AP 114 126

BAGASSE IPP AP 95 40

ALMATTI DAM PH HYDRO KAR 70 165

BELLARY-TPS THERMAL KAR   500

PYKARA ULTIMATE HYDRO TN 150  

BHAVANI STAGE II HYDRO TN 30 30

KUTTALAM THERMAL TN 100  

ARKAY ENERGY LTD. IPP TN 53  

ABAN POWER Co IPP TN   103

TALCHER STAGE II THERMAL NTPC 500 1000

TOTAL 1685 2068

FREQUENCY PROFILE OF SR

47.0

47.5

48.0

48.5

49.0

49.5

50.0

50.5

51.0

Apr

-99

Jul-9

9

Oct

-99

Jan-

00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0

Oct

-00

Jan-

01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1

Oct

-01

Jan-

02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2

Oct

-02

Jan-

03

Apr

-03

Jul-0

3

MONTHS --->

FR

EQ

IN H

Z -

-->

AVG OF MAX

AVG OF AVG

AVG OF MIN

FREQUENCY CURVE FOR 8th AUGUST 2003FVI = 0.10

Avg Freq = 50.00Hz

48.0

48.5

49.0

49.5

50.0

50.5

51.0

51.5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

LOAD DURATION CURVE OF SR 2002-03

10500

11500

12500

13500

14500

15500

16500

17500

18500

19500

20500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

% OF TIME --->

DE

MA

ND

IN

MW

---

>

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

IN %

---

>

RELATIVE RANKING OF THE CONSTITUENTS ON DIFFERENT INDICES BASED ON THE SYNTHESIS OF DATA

ATTRIBUTE RELATIVE POSITION HIGH ---> LOW

PEAK GROWTH RATE TN KAR AP KEL

SATURATION EFFECTS AP KEL KAR TN

LEAN GROWTH RATE TN AP KAR KEL

ENERGY GROWTH RATE TN AP KAR KEL

DIFF. OF PEAK & LEAN KAR TN AP KEL

LOAD FACTOR AP TN KEL KAR

SEASONAL VARIATION KAR AP KEL TN

COMPARISION OF ACTUAL & FORECASTED DEMAND OF SR

MONTH

SOUTHERN REGION

ACTUAL DEMAND MET(MW)

FORECASTED DEMAND

(MW)

VARIATION (MW)

% VARIATION

Apr-03 19944 19193 751 3.77

May-03 19379 19256 123 0.63

Jun-03 18595 19346 -751 -4.04

Jul-03 18755 19489 -734 -3.91

Aug-03 18715 19544 -829 -4.43

Sep-03 19709 19658 51 0.26

Oct-03 19506 19777 -271 -1.38

SEASONAL VARIATION OF SR PEAK DEMAND (IN P.U)

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

Ap

r-9

8Ju

l-9

8O

ct-9

8Ja

n-9

9A

pr-

99

Jul-

99

Oct

-99

Jan

-00

Ap

r-0

0Ju

l-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-0

1A

pr-

01

Jul-

01

Oct

-01

Jan

-02

Ap

r-0

2Ju

l-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-0

3A

pr-

03

Jul-

03

Oct

-03

Jan

-04

Ap

r-0

4Ju

l-0

4

MONTHS --->

IN P

U -

-->

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR SRSEASONAL VARIATION OF SR MAX DEMAND (IN MW)

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Ap

r-9

8

Jul-

98

Oct

-98

Jan

-99

Ap

r-9

9Ju

l-9

9

Oct

-99

Jan

-00

Ap

r-0

0

Jul-

00

Oct

-00

Jan

-01

Ap

r-0

1

Jul-

01

Oct

-01

Jan

-02

Ap

r-0

2

Jul-

02

Oct

-02

Jan

-03

Ap

r-0

3

Jul-

03

Oct

-03

Jan

-04

Ap

r-0

4Ju

l-0

4

MONTHS ----->

IN M

W -

--->

LOAD FACTOR OF SR

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0A

pr-9

8

Oct

-98

Apr

-99

Oct

-99

Apr

-00

Oct

-00

Apr

-01

Oct

-01

Apr

-02

Oct

-02

Apr

-03

Oct

-03

Apr

-04

MONTHS ---->

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF SR

1000

3000

5000

7000

9000

Ap

r-9

8

Oct

-98

Ap

r-9

9

Oct

-99

Ap

r-0

0

Oct

-00

Ap

r-0

1

Oct

-01

Ap

r-0

2

Oct

-02

Ap

r-0

3

Oct

-03

Ap

r-0

4

MONTHS ---->

MW

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF SR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60A

pr-9

8

Oct

-98

Apr

-99

Oct

-99

Apr

-00

Oct

-00

Apr

-01

Oct

-01

Apr

-02

Oct

-02

Apr

-03

Oct

-03

Apr

-04

MONTHS ---->

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR AP

SEASONAL VARIATION OF AP YEARLY PEAK DEMAND (IN P.U)

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

Apr

-98

Jul-9

8

Oct

-98

Jan-

99

Apr

-99

Jul-9

9O

ct-9

9

Jan-

00

Apr

-00

Jul-0

0

Oct

-00

Jan-

01

Apr

-01

Jul-0

1

Oct

-01

Jan-

02A

pr-0

2

Jul-0

2

Oct

-02

Jan-

03A

pr-0

3

Jul-0

3

Oct

-03

Jan-

04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4

MONTHS --->

IN P

U -

-->

SEASONAL VARIATION OF AP MAX DEMAND (IN MW)

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

Apr-

98

Jul-98

Oct-

98

Jan-9

9

Apr-

99

Jul-99

Oct-

99

Jan-0

0

Apr-

00

Jul-00

Oct-

00

Jan-0

1

Apr-

01

Jul-01

Oct-

01

Jan-0

2

Apr-

02

Jul-02

Oct-

02

Jan-0

3

Apr-

03

Jul-03

Oct-

03

Jan-0

4

Apr-

04

Jul-04

MONTHS ----->

IN M

W -

--->

LOAD FACTOR OF ANDHRA PRADESH

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0A

pr-9

8

Oct

-98

Apr

-99

Oct

-99

Apr

-00

Oct

-00

Apr

-01

Oct

-01

Apr

-02

Oct

-02

Apr

-03

Oct

-03

Apr

-04

MONTHS ---->

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF AP

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Apr

-98

Oct

-98

Apr

-99

Oct

-99

Apr

-00

Oct

-00

Apr

-01

Oct

-01

Apr

-02

Oct

-02

Apr

-03

Oct

-03

Apr

-04

MONTHS ---->

MW

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF AP

0

10

20

30

40

50

60A

pr-

98

Oct

-98

Ap

r-9

9

Oct

-99

Ap

r-0

0

Oct

-00

Ap

r-0

1

Oct

-01

Ap

r-0

2

Oct

-02

Ap

r-0

3

Oct

-03

Ap

r-0

4

MONTHS ---->

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR KAR

SEASONAL VARIATION OF KAR YEARLY PEAK DEMAND ( IN P.U)

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

Ap

r-9

8

Jul-

98

Oct

-98

Jan

-99

Ap

r-9

9

Jul-

99

Oct

-99

Jan

-00

Ap

r-0

0Ju

l-0

0

Oct

-00

Jan

-01

Ap

r-0

1Ju

l-0

1

Oct

-01

Jan

-02

Ap

r-0

2Ju

l-0

2

Oct

-02

Jan

-03

Ap

r-0

3Ju

l-0

3

Oct

-03

Jan

-04

Ap

r-0

4

Jul-

04

MONTHS --->

IN P

U -

-->

SEASONAL VARIATION OF KAR MAX DEMAND (IN MW)

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

Ap

r-9

8

Ju

l-9

8

Oct-

98

Ja

n-9

9

Ap

r-9

9

Ju

l-9

9

Oct-

99

Ja

n-0

0

Ap

r-0

0

Ju

l-0

0

Oct-

00

Ja

n-0

1

Ap

r-0

1

Ju

l-0

1

Oct-

01

Ja

n-0

2

Ap

r-0

2

Ju

l-0

2

Oct-

02

Ja

n-0

3

Ap

r-0

3

Ju

l-0

3

Oct-

03

Ja

n-0

4

Ap

r-0

4

Ju

l-0

4

MONTHS ----->

IN M

W -

--->

LOAD FACTOR OF KARNATAKA

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0A

pr-9

8

Oct

-98

Apr

-99

Oct

-99

Apr

-00

Oct

-00

Apr

-01

Oct

-01

Apr

-02

Oct

-02

Apr

-03

Oct

-03

Apr

-04

MONTHS ---->

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF KARNATAKA

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Apr

-98

Oct

-98

Apr

-99

Oct

-99

Apr

-00

Oct

-00

Apr

-01

Oct

-01

Apr

-02

Oct

-02

Apr

-03

Oct

-03

Apr

-04

MONTHS ---->

MW

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF KAR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60A

pr-

98

Oct

-98

Ap

r-9

9

Oct

-99

Ap

r-0

0

Oct

-00

Ap

r-0

1

Oct

-01

Ap

r-0

2

Oct

-02

Ap

r-0

3

Oct

-03

Ap

r-0

4

MONTHS ---->

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR KERALA

SEASONAL VARIATION OF KER YEARLY PEAK DEMAND ( IN P.U )

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

Ap

r-9

8Ju

l-9

8O

ct-9

8Ja

n-9

9A

pr-

99

Jul-

99

Oct

-99

Jan

-00

Ap

r-0

0Ju

l-0

0O

ct-0

0Ja

n-0

1A

pr-

01

Jul-

01

Oct

-01

Jan

-02

Ap

r-0

2Ju

l-0

2O

ct-0

2Ja

n-0

3A

pr-

03

Jul-

03

Oct

-03

Jan

-04

Ap

r-0

4Ju

l-0

4

MONTHS --->

IN P

U -

-->

SEASONAL VARIATION OF KER MAX DEMAND (IN MW)

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Ap

r-9

8

Jul-

98

Oct

-98

Jan

-99

Ap

r-9

9

Jul-

99

Oct

-99

Jan

-00

Ap

r-0

0

Jul-

00

Oct

-00

Jan

-01

Ap

r-0

1

Jul-

01

Oct

-01

Jan

-02

Ap

r-0

2

Jul-

02

Oct

-02

Jan

-03

Ap

r-0

3

Jul-

03

Oct

-03

Jan

-04

Ap

r-0

4

Jul-

04

MONTHS ----->

IN M

W -

--->

LOAD FACTOR OF KERALA

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0A

pr-9

8

Oct

-98

Apr

-99

Oct

-99

Apr

-00

Oct

-00

Apr

-01

Oct

-01

Apr

-02

Oct

-02

Apr

-03

Oct

-03

Apr

-04

MONTHS ---->

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF KERALA

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

Apr

-98

Oct

-98

Apr

-99

Oct

-99

Apr

-00

Oct

-00

Apr

-01

Oct

-01

Apr

-02

Oct

-02

Apr

-03

Oct

-03

Apr

-04

MONTHS ---->

MW

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF KER

0

10

20

30

40

50

60A

pr-

98

Oct

-98

Ap

r-9

9

Oct

-99

Ap

r-0

0

Oct

-00

Ap

r-0

1

Oct

-01

Ap

r-0

2

Oct

-02

Ap

r-0

3

Oct

-03

Ap

r-0

4

MONTHS ---->

SEASONAL VARIATION GRAPH FOR TN

SEASONAL VARIATION OF TN YEARLY PEAK DEMAND (IN P.U)

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

Ap

r-9

8

Jul-

98

Oct

-98

Jan

-99

Ap

r-9

9

Jul-

99

Oct

-99

Jan

-00

Ap

r-0

0

Jul-

00

Oct

-00

Jan

-01

Ap

r-0

1

Jul-

01

Oct

-01

Jan

-02

Ap

r-0

2

Jul-

02

Oct

-02

Jan

-03

Ap

r-0

3

Jul-

03

Oct

-03

Jan

-04

Ap

r-0

4

Jul-

04

MONTHS --->

IN P

U -

-->

SEASONAL VARIATION OF TN MAX DEMAND (IN MW)

-1500-1000

-500

0500

10001500

20002500

Ap

r-9

8

Ju

l-9

8

Oct-

98

Ja

n-9

9

Ap

r-9

9

Ju

l-9

9

Oct-

99

Ja

n-0

0

Ap

r-0

0

Ju

l-0

0

Oct-

00

Ja

n-0

1

Ap

r-0

1

Ju

l-0

1

Oct-

01

Ja

n-0

2

Ap

r-0

2

Ju

l-0

2

Oct-

02

Ja

n-0

3

Ap

r-0

3

Ju

l-0

3

Oct-

03

Ja

n-0

4

Ap

r-0

4

Ju

l-0

4

MONTHS ----->

IN M

W -

--->

LOAD FACTOR OF TAMIL NADU

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0A

pr-9

8

Oct

-98

Apr

-99

Oct

-99

Apr

-00

Oct

-00

Apr

-01

Oct

-01

Apr

-02

Oct

-02

Apr

-03

Oct

-03

Apr

-04

MONTHS ---->

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN OF TN

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Apr

-98

Oct

-98

Apr

-99

Oct

-99

Apr

-00

Oct

-00

Apr

-01

Oct

-01

Apr

-02

Oct

-02

Apr

-03

Oct

-03

Apr

-04

MONTHS ---->

MW

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK-LEAN AS % OF PEAK OF TN

0

10

20

30

40

50

60A

pr-

98

Oct

-98

Ap

r-9

9

Oct

-99

Ap

r-0

0

Oct

-00

Ap

r-0

1

Oct

-01

Ap

r-0

2

Oct

-02

Ap

r-0

3

Oct

-03

Ap

r-0

4

MONTHS ---->

LOAD FACTOR OF

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Apr

-98

Oct

-98

Apr

-99

Oct

-99

Apr

-00

Oct

-00

Apr

-01

Oct

-01

Apr

-02

Oct

-02

Apr

-03

Oct

-03

Apr

-04

MONTHS ---->

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Apr

-98

Oct

-98

Apr

-99

Oct

-99

Apr

-00

Oct

-00

Apr

-01

Oct

-01

Apr

-02

Oct

-02

Apr

-03

Oct

-03

Apr

-04

MONTHS ---->

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Apr-

98

Oct-

98

Apr-

99

Oct-

99

Apr-

00

Oct-

00

Apr-

01

Oct-

01

Apr-

02

Oct-

02

Apr-

03

Oct-

03

Apr-

04

MONTHS ---->

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Apr-

98

Oct-

98

Apr-

99

Oct-

99

Apr-

00

Oct-

00

Apr-

01

Oct-

01

Apr-

02

Oct-

02

Apr-

03

Oct-

03

Apr-

04

MONTHS ---->

MW

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Apr

-98

Oct

-98

Apr

-99

Oct

-99

Apr

-00

Oct

-00

Apr

-01

Oct

-01

Apr

-02

Oct

-02

Apr

-03

Oct

-03

Apr

-04

MONTHS ---->

MW

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

Apr-

98

Oct-

98

Apr-

99

Oct-

99

Apr-

00

Oct-

00

Apr-

01

Oct-

01

Apr-

02

Oct-

02

Apr-

03

Oct-

03

Apr-

04

MONTHS ---->

MW

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Apr

-98

Oct

-98

Apr

-99

Oct

-99

Apr

-00

Oct

-00

Apr

-01

Oct

-01

Apr

-02

Oct

-02

Apr

-03

Oct

-03

Apr

-04

MONTHS ---->

MW

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Apr

-98

Oct

-98

Apr

-99

Oct

-99

Apr

-00

Oct

-00

Apr

-01

Oct

-01

Apr

-02

Oct

-02

Apr

-03

Oct

-03

Apr

-04

MONTHS ---->

MW

DIFFERENCE OF PEAK AND LEAN OF

Thank you