Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting.

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and otherdecision-supporting systems

D. Kraft

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

WG Integrative ModellingModels, software and tools supporting theutilisation and protection of the coastaland marine environment

– Hydrodynamic models: current and flow– Tracing software: particles and individuals– Evaluation tools: multivariate and fuzzy– iDSS: Information and Decision Support

Systems

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Basic ideas:

• We understand spatial planning on the coast and in sea as adecision-making process

• To participate, someone needs information

• iDSS are systems to manage and provide knowledge

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Decision-making process:Decision-making is a cognitive process

leading to the selection of a course of action from different options.

It consists of the mental process of thinking involved with the process of judging the merits of options and selecting one of them for action. Every decision-making process produces a final choice.

(wikipedia, 5.6.07)

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Decision-making steps

1. Thinking: “process information”

2. Judging: “forming opinion”

3. Selecting: “carefully choose”

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Thinking: “processing information“

Input: Information, facts, dataActions: Collecting data (e.g. measuring,

modelling)Analysing this data (e.g. check quality)Characterising data (e.g. statistics)Homogenising data (e.g. synchronise)Integrating data (e.g. simplify, scenarios)

Output: Maps, charts, indicators showing options

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Dealing with uncertainty: “scenario analysis”• Uncertainty: “A state of having limited

knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe ... future outcome...”

• Scenario analysis: “A process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes.”

• Consider: “Think carefully about (something),typically before making a decision.”(wikipedia, 12.11.07)

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Question:What kind of effects do changes in the catchment area have on water quality in the sea?

Action:• Handpick scenariosAnswer:

The dominant effect is nitrification!

“Thinking”: Example CRC-Viewer

Data: H. Behrendt, G. Schernewski et al.

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Example CRC-Viewer

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

handpicking scenarios

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Question:What kind of effects do changes in the catchment area have on water quality in the sea?

Action:• Handpick scenariosAnswer:

The dominant effect is nitrification!

“Thinking”: Example CRC-Viewer

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Judging: “forming opinion”

Input: Options, possible measuresActions: Finding the quality of options:

» Evaluate, Rate, Monetize» What’s good or worthwhile» Dealing with uncertainty of data: Scenarios

Output: Quality, value, or price as a criterion for

selecting measures

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

“Judging”: Example ANEMOSQuestion:

How to plan a wind park?

Action:• Give a estimation of

importance of interestsAnswer:

Taking satisfaction of groups into account!”

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Example ANEMOS

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Example ANEMOS: estimation

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Question:How to plan a wind park?

Action:• Give a estimation of

importance of interests

Answer:Taking satisfaction of groups into account!”

“Judging”: Example ANEMOS

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Selecting: “carefully choose”Input: Criteria for measuresActions: Creating principles, model or

standardsOptimisationsCost-benefit-calculationsBenchmarkingCreate methods of standardisation

Output: Final choice

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

“Selecting”: Example ComCoastQuestion:

Sustainable spatial planning in the coastal zone?

Action:Consensus on• scenarios• spatial development• evaluationAnswer:

...I can bring my opinion into the discussion...

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Consensus on scenarios:

• Scenario A: busyness as usual– Ongoing economic and social

development

• Scenario B: worst case– Disasters like storm surge and flooding

• Scenario C: sustainable development– Sustainable spatial planning

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Consensus on spatial development

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Consensus on evaluation

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

“Selecting”: Example ComCoastQuestion:

Sustainable spatial planning in the coastal zone?

Action:Consensus on• scenarios• spatial development• evaluationAnswer:

...I can bring my opinion into the discussion...

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

• Thinking: “process information”• Judging: “forming opinion”• Selecting: “choose”Scenarios: dealing with uncertaintyiDSS: dealing with alternatives

Steps to participation: providing information

D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems

Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling

Conclusions

• DSS: can “think“

• DSS: can “judge“

• DSS can “select“

• iDSS can “inform”

• But: iDSS can not discuss