Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment WG Integrative Modelling Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems D. Kraft
Mar 27, 2015
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and otherdecision-supporting systems
D. Kraft
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
WG Integrative ModellingModels, software and tools supporting theutilisation and protection of the coastaland marine environment
– Hydrodynamic models: current and flow– Tracing software: particles and individuals– Evaluation tools: multivariate and fuzzy– iDSS: Information and Decision Support
Systems
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Basic ideas:
• We understand spatial planning on the coast and in sea as adecision-making process
• To participate, someone needs information
• iDSS are systems to manage and provide knowledge
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Decision-making process:Decision-making is a cognitive process
leading to the selection of a course of action from different options.
It consists of the mental process of thinking involved with the process of judging the merits of options and selecting one of them for action. Every decision-making process produces a final choice.
(wikipedia, 5.6.07)
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Decision-making steps
1. Thinking: “process information”
2. Judging: “forming opinion”
3. Selecting: “carefully choose”
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Thinking: “processing information“
Input: Information, facts, dataActions: Collecting data (e.g. measuring,
modelling)Analysing this data (e.g. check quality)Characterising data (e.g. statistics)Homogenising data (e.g. synchronise)Integrating data (e.g. simplify, scenarios)
Output: Maps, charts, indicators showing options
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Dealing with uncertainty: “scenario analysis”• Uncertainty: “A state of having limited
knowledge where it is impossible to exactly describe ... future outcome...”
• Scenario analysis: “A process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes.”
• Consider: “Think carefully about (something),typically before making a decision.”(wikipedia, 12.11.07)
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Question:What kind of effects do changes in the catchment area have on water quality in the sea?
Action:• Handpick scenariosAnswer:
The dominant effect is nitrification!
“Thinking”: Example CRC-Viewer
Data: H. Behrendt, G. Schernewski et al.
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Example CRC-Viewer
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
handpicking scenarios
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Question:What kind of effects do changes in the catchment area have on water quality in the sea?
Action:• Handpick scenariosAnswer:
The dominant effect is nitrification!
“Thinking”: Example CRC-Viewer
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Judging: “forming opinion”
Input: Options, possible measuresActions: Finding the quality of options:
» Evaluate, Rate, Monetize» What’s good or worthwhile» Dealing with uncertainty of data: Scenarios
Output: Quality, value, or price as a criterion for
selecting measures
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
“Judging”: Example ANEMOSQuestion:
How to plan a wind park?
Action:• Give a estimation of
importance of interestsAnswer:
Taking satisfaction of groups into account!”
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Example ANEMOS
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Example ANEMOS: estimation
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Question:How to plan a wind park?
Action:• Give a estimation of
importance of interests
Answer:Taking satisfaction of groups into account!”
“Judging”: Example ANEMOS
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Selecting: “carefully choose”Input: Criteria for measuresActions: Creating principles, model or
standardsOptimisationsCost-benefit-calculationsBenchmarkingCreate methods of standardisation
Output: Final choice
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
“Selecting”: Example ComCoastQuestion:
Sustainable spatial planning in the coastal zone?
Action:Consensus on• scenarios• spatial development• evaluationAnswer:
...I can bring my opinion into the discussion...
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Consensus on scenarios:
• Scenario A: busyness as usual– Ongoing economic and social
development
• Scenario B: worst case– Disasters like storm surge and flooding
• Scenario C: sustainable development– Sustainable spatial planning
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Consensus on spatial development
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Consensus on evaluation
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
“Selecting”: Example ComCoastQuestion:
Sustainable spatial planning in the coastal zone?
Action:Consensus on• scenarios• spatial development• evaluationAnswer:
...I can bring my opinion into the discussion...
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
• Thinking: “process information”• Judging: “forming opinion”• Selecting: “choose”Scenarios: dealing with uncertaintyiDSS: dealing with alternatives
Steps to participation: providing information
D. Kraft: Specific aspects of MSP implementation: Dealing with alternatives: scenarios and other decision-supporting systems
Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine EnvironmentWG Integrative Modelling
Conclusions
• DSS: can “think“
• DSS: can “judge“
• DSS can “select“
• iDSS can “inform”
• But: iDSS can not discuss