Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe Course How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions &Attitudes.

Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe

Course

How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet Future Safety Issues,

Decisions &Attitudes

How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet Future

Safety Issues, Decisions &Attitudes

and Keep Your Business Profitable!

Welcome Safety Managers

Charles Dodgson, Oxford math lecturer, text author,

1850’s-1880’s

Lewis Carroll writer of children's books 1850’s -1880’s

Caricature by Zach Trenholm, SALON Magazine.

Planning

Alice in Wonderland

Alice said to the Cat, ‘Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?’

‘That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,’ said the Cheshire Cat.

‘I don’t much care where…’ said Alice.

‘Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,’ said the Cheshire Cat.

‘…so long as I get somewhere,’ Alice added as an explanation.

‘Oh, you’re sure to do that,’ said the Cheshire Cat, ‘if you only walk long enough.’

Flight safety program managers need to know know

which wawhich wayy to to ggoo…

& how far to walk to become accidentaccident ppreventersreventers…

… and not become

accidentaccident investiinvestiggatorsators!

Procedures & Examples of how to produce…

Safety

Forecast & Plans

Annual Safety ForecastForecast &Annual Safety PlanPlan

Safety

Forecast & Plans

...to meet Future SafetFuture Safetyy Issues, Issues, Decisions & AttitudesDecisions & Attitudes

Safety

Forecast & Plans

Paul Miller

-Independent safety consultant-B767 & B757 int’l line captain,-Flies for a global logistics company & express package delivery service-Safety program manager:

pilot association, 2 airports & aspecialized air logistics

organization

Paul Miller is now:

-Independent safety consultant

http://SafetyForecast.com

Safety Forecasts & Plans

Safety Forecasts & Plans

-Simple Procedures

Safety Forecasts & Plans

-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating

Safety Forecasts & Plans

-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards

Safety Forecasts & Plans

-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards-As yet Unresolved

Safety Forecasts & Plans

-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards-As yet Unresolved-As yet Unmanaged

Safety Forecasts & Plans

-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards-As yet Unresolved-As yet Unmanaged-May be Unreported

Safety Forecasts & Plans

-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards-As yet Unresolved-As yet Unmanaged-May be Unreported-Will affect a local organization…

Safety Forecasts & Plans

-Simple Procedures-Estimating and Compensating-Expected Flight Safety Hazards-As yet Unresolved-As yet Unmanaged-May be Unreported-Will affect a local organization…

…YOURS!

…All Safety is Local

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards-using cultural listening

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards-using cultural listening-not exact science

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards-using cultural listening-not exact science-daily working list

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards-using cultural listening-not exact science-daily working list-logical inductive reasoning

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards-using cultural listening-not exact science-daily working list-logical inductive reasoning-calculation of risk

Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards-using cultural listening-not exact science-daily working list-logical inductive reasoning-calculation of risk -mathematical, graphic modeling

What are Hazards?

What are Hazards?-Probable Risks

What are Hazards?-Probable Risks -Serious Risks

What are Hazards?-Probable Risks -Serious Risks

People

What are Hazards?-Probable Risks -Serious Risks

People-Injury & Death

What are Hazards?-Probable Risks -Serious Risks

People-Injury & Death

Property

What are Hazards?-Probable Risks -Serious Risks

People-Injury & Death

Property-Damage &

Destruction

What are Hazards?-Probable Risks -Serious Risks

People $$$$-Injury & Death

Property -Damage &

Destruction

What are Hazards?-Probable Risks -Serious Risks

People $$$$-Injury & Death

Property $$$$-Damage &

Destruction

What are Hazard$?-Probable Risk$ -Serious Risk$

People $$$$-Injury & Death

Property $$$$-Damage &

DestructionAdditional cost$?

Hazard Unresolved?

Hazard Unresolved?

-no strategy for resolution?

Hazard Unresolved?

-no strategy for resolution?

-longstanding?

Hazard Unresolved?

-no strategy for resolution?

-longstanding?

-culturally accepted as “irresolvable”?

Hazard Unmanaged?

Hazard Unmanaged?

-no manager for resolution?

Hazard Unmanaged?

-no manager for resolution?

-no assigned manager?

Hazard Unmanaged?

-no manager for resolution?

-no assigned manager?

-assigned manager not functioning?

Hazard Unreported?

Hazard Unreported?

-New or emerging hazard?

Hazard Unreported?

-New or emerging hazard?

-Known but unreported?

Hazard Unreported?

-New or emerging hazard?

-Known but unreported?

-Reoccurring hazard?

Hazard Affect?

Hazard Affect?

-people?

Hazard Affect?

-people?

-your local organization?

Hazard Affect?

-people?

-your local organization?

-customers, neighbors & visitors?

Hazard Affect?

Hazard Affect?

-property & equipment?

Hazard Affect?

-property & equipment?

-your local organization?

Hazard Affect?

-property & equipment?

-your local organization?

-belonging to others?

Early Detection

…is the key

Why Early DetectionEarly Detection?

The earlier a hazard is The earlier a hazard is detected by a forecast, detected by a forecast, the earlier a resolution the earlier a resolution plan can be created.plan can be created.

Miller’s Early Detection Theorem

Miller’s Early Detection Theorem

The longer a hazard exists,

Miller’s Early Detection Theorem

The longer a hazard exists, the higher the probability that it will cause a mishap

Why Detection at all Detection at all?

Miller’s Hazard & MishaMiller’s Hazard & Mishapp TheoremTheorem

Why Detection Detection at all?

Miller’s Hazard & MishaMiller’s Hazard & Mishapp TheoremTheorem

A. Mishaps Mishaps are ‘hazard-hazard-basedbased’

Why DetectionDetection at all?

Miller’s Hazard & MishaMiller’s Hazard & Mishapp TheoremTheorem

A. Mishaps Mishaps are ‘hazard-hazard-basedbased’

B. HazardsHazards are ‘people-people-actionaction’

Why DetectionDetection at all?

Miller’s Hazard & MishaMiller’s Hazard & Mishapp TheoremTheorem

A. Mishaps Mishaps are ‘hazard-hazard-basedbased’

B. HazardsHazards are ‘people-people-actionaction’ or ‘lack-of-action’lack-of-action’-basedbased

Miller’s Hazard & Mishap Theorem Corollary

Miller’s Hazard & Mishap Theorem Corollary

Elimination of ‘people-based’ hazards…

Miller’s Hazard & Mishap Theorem Corollary

Elimination of ‘people-based’ hazards…eliminates the basis for mishaps.

Miller’s Safety Riddle:

Miller’s Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur?

??

Miller’s Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur? Or does the hazard cause the mishap to occur? ? ?

??

Miller’s Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur? Or does the hazard cause the mishap to occur? ? ?

??

?

Miller’s Quickness Corollary to Early

Detection Theorem…

Miller’s Quickness Corollary to Early

Detection Theorem…

The quicker a hazard is resolved,

Miller’s Quickness Corollary to Early

Detection Theorem…

The quicker a hazard is resolved, the lower the probability that the hazard will cause a mishap.

Miller’s Quickness Corollary to Early

Detection Theorem…

The quicker a hazard is resolved, the lower the probability that the hazard will cause a mishap.

The resolution time is as The resolution time is as important as the resolutionimportant as the resolution

Miller’s Quickness Corollary to Early

Detection Theorem…

The resolution time is as The resolution time is as important as the important as the resolutionresolution

Rabbit

Response

Rabbit

Response

Annual Safety Planbased on Rabbit Response of

Resolution

Annual Safety Planbased on Rapid Response of

Resolution

Annual Safety Plan-based on Rapid Response of

Resolutionfrom Hazard Report Recommendations

Annual Safety Plan-based on Rapid Response of

Resolutionfrom Hazard Report Recommendations • Immediate InterventionImmediate Intervention:

affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique

Annual Safety Plan-based on Rapid Response of

Resolutionfrom Hazard Report Recommendations • Immediate Intervention:

affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique

• Interim RemediationInterim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure

Annual Safety Plan-based on Rapid Response of

Resolutionfrom Hazard Report Recommendations • Immediate Intervention:

affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique

• Interim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure

• Long Term ResolutionLong Term Resolution: affecting Philosophy, Policy

Annual Safety Plan-based on Rapid Response of Resolution

from Hazard Report Recommendations • Immediate Intervention: affecting

Procedure, Practice, Technique• Interim Remediation: affecting

Policy, Procedure • Long Term Resolution: affecting

Philosophy, Policy

Hazard Intervention = Mishap PreventionHazard Intervention = Mishap Prevention

Annual Safety Plan-based on Rapid Response of

Resolutionfrom Hazard Report Recommendations

Hazard Intervention = Mishap Hazard Intervention = Mishap PreventionPrevention

Credible Source

Safety manger

Safety Forecasting

Calculation of the Risk of the Hazard

Calculation of the Risk of the Hazard

Calculation of the Risk of the Hazard

0

+Y

+X

+Z

100%

Risk may vary by time of day, time of season, time of year

Times of high activity, low activity, combined activity & coincidence

Miller’s Safety Formula for Risk

Risk equals probability times seriousness

Miller’s Safety Formula for Risk

Risk equals probability times seriousness

Z = X Y

Miller’s Safety Formula for Risk

Risk equals probability times seriousness

Z = X Y

Z = XY

Miller’s Safety Formula for Risk

Risk equals probability times seriousness

Z = X Y

Z = XY-Three dimensional curve, depicting the full range of risks. It is a graphic display of the safety challenge

Miller’s Formula for Safety Risk is a

Mathematical expression of

Hazard Risk of Cost of Loss or “Z”

Z = sine |X| N (Y)Where:

X = Hazard Probability from 0 to ‘here-it-comes’

Y = Hazard Seriousness from minor to major

Sine = regular time fluctuations

N = variable factors

N = Miller’s Possible Variable factors

N = n1+n2+n3+n4+n5+n6, where:

n1 = Assigned legal punitive costs

n2 = Loss of public relations image & market share

n3 = Loss of managerial talent to resolving disaster

n4 = Loss of company growth & productivity

n5 = Employee morale destruction

n6 = Eventual discovery that disaster was preventable causing loss of confidence

A graph of the mathematical equation ‘Z= sine|X|(NY)’ gives a

visual clue to the magnitude of the safety hazard resolution

challenge!

.

Hazard Risk of Cost of Loss is product of two other factors & is somewhat geometric

Risk (costs) = probability x severityZ = X Y where Z, X,Y>0

Severity and probability grow together the costs begin a rise in risk cost.

Planning

…from local safety forecast

Planning involves very specific procedures, which

are clear for your local local organizationorganization to follow.

Planning involves very specific recommended procedures for

external external organizations

Conclusion

Charting a safe courseCharting a safe course

Successful Flight Safety Program

Procedures…

…

to keep one step ahead of the next big accident

……lower your local accident rate toward zero!lower your local accident rate toward zero!

!!

!

!!

Forecasting Hazards & Planning Change to meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions & Attitudes…

Forecasting Hazards & Planning Change to meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions & Attitudes…

……and Keep Your Business and Keep Your Business Profitable!Profitable!