EUROPEAN PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION · PDF fileEUROPEAN PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION ... EPIA - Head of Business Intelligence IEA-PVPS - Task 1 Operating ... Compensable

4 February 2014

EUROPEAN PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION

Overview of current market trends for PV systems

Ir Gaëtan Masson

EPIA - Head of Business Intelligence

IEA-PVPS - Task 1 Operating Agent

04 February 2014 - Paris

IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop 2014

109 EUR/MWh

Hinkley Point - UK

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Could PV electricity be cheapter than new nuclear ?

80 EUR/MWh Fraunhofer ISE – Central Germany –

Cheapest utility-scale

IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop 2014

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Market Development

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Rapid Market Development

Source: IEA PVPS

Peak power demand x 2

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2013 PV Market

Growing market. At least 35 GW (installed <> connected to the grid)

35,000

2013

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100 GW finally in 2012. Around 135 GW.

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Evolution of the Global Installed PV Capacities

> 135000

2013

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First Power Source Installed from 2011 to 2013 in Europe

2013: - PV: 10-11 GW - Wind: 10 GW - Gas: -2.7 GW (+5 -7)

In the same time, demand grew less than 5%

IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop 2014

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The EU trio: Gas / Wind / PV

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2013

China: 8 - 12 GW Japan: 6 GW USA: 4 GW Germany: 3.3 GW …

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Market size

2010 2011 2012

1 Germany Italy Germany

2 Italy Germany Italy

3 Czech Rep. China China

4 Japan USA USA

5 USA France Japan

6 France Japan France

7 China Belgium Australia

8 Belgium UK India

9 Spain Australia UK

10 Australia Greece Greece

383 MW 425 MW 912 MW

Market level to access the top 10

Table 1: Evolution of Top 10 Markets

Year MW

1 Italy 2011 9305

2 Germany 2012 7604

3 Germany 2011 7485

4 Germany 2010 7413

5 Germany 2009 3806

6 Italy 2012 3647

7 China 2012 3500

8 USA 2012 3362

9 Spain 2008 2896

10 China 2011 2500

11 Italy 2010 2322

12 Germany 2008 1958

13 USA 2011 1867

14 France 2011 1759

15 Japan 2012 1718

16 Japan 2011 1296

17 Germany 2007 1277

18 France 2012 1079

19 Australia 2012 1038

20 Belgium 2011 1002

Table 2: 20 Largest Additions of Capacities in MW

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From Europe to the World

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Market Share per Region: From Europe to Asia

2013

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From off-grid to Utility-Scale

Source: IEA PVPS / EPIA

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PV Market Drivers

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Drivers to PV Market Development

China: FiT Japan: FiT USA: Tax breaks & net-metering Germany: FiT and SC

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EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW

Grid Parity and Competitiveness

source: IEA PVPS Page 16

IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop 2014

What does « competitive » means ?

Uncompetitive PV Partial

competitiveness Competitiveness

Grid Parity Mark Competitiveness Mark

Compensable Retail electricity Prices PV LCOE

Feed-in tariffs Self-consumption bonus Net-metering with bonus Direct incentives

Feed-in export tariffs Natural Self-consumption Direct incentives Net-metering

Natural Self-consumption Wholesale prices for exports

source: EPIA / IEA PVPS - Gaetan Masson

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LCOE – Utility-scale PV – 1 EUR/WP – 6,8% WACC - 20 years - 2010 Electricity Market Price – Merit order effect not considered

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PV Competitiveness on Electricity Market

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600

LCOE Ground Mounted - 1 EUR/Wp

LCOE GM

SPA

IN

FRA

NC

E

ITA

LY

GER

MA

NY

U

K

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PV Market Trends

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IEA Solar Workshop Roadmap 2014

PV in Europe (2012)

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Stagnating Europe

10 to 11 GW

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MARKET EVOLUTION

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5%

IEA Solar Roadmap Workshop

PV In the World (2012)

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> 35 GW

A Growing Global PV Market

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PV in the Global Electricity Mix

Today 0.5 % 2020

IEA

Current

Policies

scenario

IEA 450

Scenario2035

IEA

Current

Policies

scenario

IEA 450

Scenario

30 GW a year 310 GW / 375 TWh 1.3 % 1.4 % 760 GW / 1000 TWh 2.5 % 3.1 %

60 GW a year 520 GW / 620 TWh 2.1 % 2.3 % 1420 GW / 1850 TWh 4.6 % 5.8 %

100 GW a year 800 GW / 960 TWh 3.3 % 3.6 % 2300 GW / 3000 TWh 7.4 % 9.4 %

Table 14: Possible Share of PV Electricity in 2020 and 2035

135 GW in 2013 160 TWh 0.8 % of the Global Electricity Demand.

35 GW in 2013

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135 GW installed – 2013 was another record year. Still PV produces less than 1% of the World Electricity Consumption The market is still heavily dependent on support policies The growth in 2013 was fulled by 2 countries in Asia: Japan and China (>50%) Europe’s growth has been fueled mainly by 2 countries: Germany: 36 GW – Italy: 18 GW (67%) The post-incentives era will see two separate sets of segments developing: - An energy-savings driven market for prosumers

- A power generation market for utility-scale PV

Challenges are numerous and complex: grid and electricity market Integration, profitability of incumbent players, … Will 2014 be the year of a widespread development of PV ?

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Conclusions

European Photovoltaic Industry Association

Renewable Energy House

Rue d’Arlon 63-67, 1040 Brussels - Belgium

T +32 (0)2 465 38 84 - F +32 (0)2 400 10 10

info@epia.org - www.epia.org

www.epia.org

THANK YOUR FOR YOUR ATTENTION

This document was presented by Gaëtan Masson

g.masson@epia.org

g.masson@iea-pvps.org